World Energy Scenarios

Figure 35: Hard Rock% GDP Growth from 2014 to 2060
FIGURE 35: HARD ROCK GDP GROWTH % P.A. (2014– 60)
4.8%
4.0%
2.8%
2.0%
2.0%
1.7%
1.4%
1.0%
0.6%
0.6%
SSA
India
China
MENA
APAC
World
LAC
US
EU31
Russia
Source: IMF, IEA, Total Economy Database, The World Energy Council. Paul Scherrer Institute, Accenture Strategy
2.4.2.1 Diversified Domestic Economies
In industrialised nations, weakened trade relationships mean governments come to terms with the
reality that export-led growth is no longer a sustainable model. Many governments invest in stimulating
domestic growth and diversifying local economies. State-controlled economies and state-owned
enterprises fare better in this transition; however, a lack of competition due to low global cooperation
and trade leads to inefficiencies in market structures.
In developing nations, employment becomes a significant driver, which gives rise to unexpected models
for diversifying economic growth. For example, in some countries in SSA, the service-driven growth
models of India and Singapore become increasingly viable through regional cooperation and bi-lateral
relationships that may not have emerged if Western societies still dominated the global landscape.
2.4.2.2 Domestic Expertise
With a reduction in global cooperation, brain drain is less of an issue in regions like Africa,
the Middle East, India and China, where it has historically caused a drag on economic potential.
This leads to local development of expert problem solving and complex communication skills and
a growing number of domestic workers who can use technology and manage people in both technical
and professional settings.
However, in many industries, middle—and low-skilled labour segments are substantially disrupted.
To bring cost structures down, many industries deploy technology innovation that displaces some
low—and medium-skill human labour, which leads to short-term higher unemployment and stagnating
wages. Society and national governments absorb much of this burden. Governments and companies
that can afford it attempt to keep middle—and low-skilled labourers employed in menial jobs to reduce
societal unrest and poverty. Still, the wage divide between highly skilled and medium—to low-skilled
workers continues to rise, pressuring national governments to respond with social safety nets and local
programmes dedicated to solving health and education gaps.
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