World Energy Scenarios

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WORLD ENERGY COUNCIL | SCENARIOS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Disruptive trends are emerging that will create a fundamentally new world for the energy industry. KEY FINDINGS Since 1970, the world has seen rapid growth in energy demand, mainly satisfied by fossil fuels. The future will be different. Disruptive trends are emerging that will create a fundamentally new world for the energy industry, characterised by lower population growth, radical new technologies, greater environmental challenges, and a shift in economic and geopolitical power. These underlying drivers will re-shape the economics of energy. We call this uncertain journey into the new world of energy – The Grand Transition. Over the past three years, the World Energy Council has explored the likely futures and outcomes for the Grand Transition. Our findings indicate: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 THE WORLD’S PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies. DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY will double to 2060. Meeting this demand with cleaner energy sources will require substantial infrastructure investments and systems integration to deliver benefits to all consumers. THE PHENOMENAL RISE OF SOLAR AND WIND ENERGY will continue at an unprecedented rate and create both new opportunities and challenges for energy systems. DEMAND PEAKS FOR COAL AND OIL have the potential to take the world from “Stranded Assets” to “Stranded Resources”. TRANSITIONING GLOBAL TRANSPORT forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in an effort to decarbonise future energy systems. LIMITING GLOBAL WARMING to no more than a 2°C increase will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments, and with very high carbon prices. GLOBAL COOPERATION, SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION are needed to balance the Energy Trilemma. The Grand Transition is built on three new exploratory and metaphorically named scenarios looking to 2060: Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock.These scenarios provide energy leaders with an open, transparent, and inclusive framework to think about a very uncertain future. Building on the World Energy Council’s previous scenarios, Modern Jazz represents a ‘digitally disrupted’, innovative, and market-driven world. Unfinished Symphony is a world in which more ‘intelligent’ and sustainable economic growth models emerge as the world drives to a low carbon future. The Council has also introduced an emerging and more fragmented scenario called Hard Rock, which explores the consequences of weaker and unsustainable economic growth with inward-looking policies. All three scenarios have then been quantified using a global, multi-regional energy system model. 8
Many lessons can be learned from the Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock scenarios. Each of these scenarios contributes to the debate on how environmental goals, energy security, and energy equity can best be achieved, taking into account a broad range of industry and policy structures. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR 1 THE WORLD’S PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND GROWTH will slow and per capita energy demand will peak before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and more stringent energy policies. Since 1970, demand for energy has more than doubled. New technologies to 2060 will keep energy demand growth moderate relative to historical trends, and will help to enable industrialised economies to transition more quickly into service and sustainability-led growth. Efficiency gains will be made through the deployment of more efficient energy resources, combined with the effect of digital technologies that will help to enable smart grids, smart buildings, smart homes and offices, and smart cities. Advanced manufacturing, automation, telecommuting, and other technologies also will disrupt traditional energy systems. As a result, final energy consumption to 2060 grows 22% in Unfinished Symphony, 38% in Modern Jazz, and 46% in Hard Rock. Primary energy demand to 2060 grows just 10% in Unfinished Symphony, 25% in Modern Jazz, and 34% in Hard Rock. Per capita primary energy demand peaks before 2030 with a maximum annual per capita usage of energy reaching 1.9 TOE. Energy intensity will decline three times faster in Modern Jazz and Unfinished Symphony. Substantial efficiencies will be gained through the deployment of solar and wind electricity generation capacity. Conversion rates for these renewable energy sources are much higher than those for fossil fuel plants, meaning less energy will be needed from the primary source. 2 DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY will double to 2060. Meeting this demand with cleaner energy sources will require substantial infrastructure investments and systems integration to deliver benefits to all consumers. Technology-enabled urban lifestyles demand more electricity. The growth of the middle class, rising incomes, and more electricity-enabled appliances and machines contribute to electricity demand doubling to 2060. Electricity reaches 29% of final energy consumption in Unfinished Symphony, 28% in Modern Jazz, and 25% in Hard Rock. Electricity generation investment to 2060, in these scenarios, ranges from US$ 35-43trillion (based on 2010 market exchange rate). New cleaner generation is needed to meet climate targets and utility business models are pushed to the limits by stringent policies and shifting consumer demands. The industry must find a way to navigate shifting dynamics. More stringent regulatory requirements for a low-carbon future will force companies everywhere to make significant changes in their business models or face collapse. This change is particularly pronounced for utilities who must respond quickly to changing demand patterns. Modern Jazz sees the emergence of three models to manage renewable energy penetration and distributed systems: Utility-scale Low Carbon Energy Producers, Distribution Platform Optimizers, and Energy Solution Integrators. Unfinished Symphony sees highly integrated models and funding mechanisms to allocate the system costs of renewables to avoid zero-marginal cost destruction. Hard Rock sees an assortment of models that work well in a unique local context. 9
Page 1 and 2: World Energy Scenarios 2016 l THE G
Page 3 and 4: PREFACE The World Energy Council ha
Page 5 and 6: The ability to incorporate the wide
Page 7: COMPARATIVE SUMMARY 90 Introduction
Page 11 and 12: the destruction of vast amounts of
Page 13 and 14: Chapter one The ‘Grand Transition
Page 15 and 16: 1.2 FACTORS THAT SHAPED WORLD ENERG
Page 17 and 18: Figure 2: Energy Use and Income Per
Page 19 and 20: 1.2.5 ENERGY POLICIES AND THE ROLE
Page 21 and 22: 1.3.2.2 New technologies New techno
Page 23 and 24: 1.3.3 WHAT IS UNCERTAIN - PATHWAYS
Page 25 and 26: Figure 6: Global Power Index FIGURE
Page 27 and 28: 1.3.3.4 Tools for action The key to
Page 29 and 30: TABLE 3: CHALLENGES FACED BY ENERGY
Page 31 and 32: 1.4.2 UNFINISHED SYMPHONY By 2060,
Page 33 and 34: 2.1 INTRODUCTION A new environment
Page 35 and 36: 2.2.1.1 Societal Values A class of
Page 37 and 38: 2.2.2.1 Open Economies With the glo
Page 39 and 40: 2.2.3 INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE With
Page 41 and 42: Carbon intensity of GDP falls at an
Page 43 and 44: 2.2.5.1 Energy Demand 2.2.5.1.1 Fin
Page 45 and 46: 2.2.5.1.1.3 Residential and Commerc
Page 47 and 48: 2.2.5.2.2 Business Models The tradi
Page 49 and 50: 2.2.5.3.1 Coal Despite high economi
Page 51 and 52: FIGURE Figure 21: MODERN Modern Jaz
Page 53 and 54: 2.3 UNFINISHED SYMPHONY “A SYMPHO
Page 55 and 56: Long-term objectives also facilitat
Page 57 and 58: Figure 22: Unfinished Symphony % GD
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CASE STUDY: FIVE CIRCULAR BUSINESS
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LAC also sees strong regional integ
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Sector Technology Adoption Industry
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Through strategic planning, emissio
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the cost of subsidising renewable e
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2.3.5.3.2 Oil Because of tightening
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FIGURE 34: UNFINISHED SYMPHONY NATU
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2.4 HARD ROCK “HARD ROCK WILL ALW
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2.4.1.2 Societal Values Societal va
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Figure 35: Hard Rock% GDP Growth fr
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2.4.3 INTERNATIONAL GOVERNANCE Frag
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TABLE 9: SECURITY-DRIVEN TECHNOLOGY
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Figure 39: Hard Rock Share of Fuels
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2.4.5.4 Energy Commodity price vola
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2.4.5.5.2 Oil Energy systems remain
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Beyond 2030, second—and third-gen
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3.1 INTRODUCTION The previous secti
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FIGURE Figure 46: GLOBAL Global Ele
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1% 5% 3% 10% 10% 8% 3% 16% 2014 Mod
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TABLE 12: DEFINING THE KAYA IDENTIT
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3.5 ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE 3.5.1
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3.5.2 CYBER SECURITY The increasing
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3.6.1 ECONOMIC CONTEXT In Modern Ja
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3.6.3 ENERGY EQUITY As the period b
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3.7 ENERGY, WATER AND FOOD The ener
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Chapter four Appendix 109
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Figure 35: Hard Rock GDP Growth % p
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GLOSSARY Acronym Definition % perce
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REFERENCES 1. Accenture Strategy, 2
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DATA TABLES MODERN JAZZ TABLE 21: M
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TABLE 25: MODERN JAZZ POWER BY FUEL
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TABLE 29: MODERN JAZZ GAS IN TPES B
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TABLE 33: UNFINISHED SYMPHONY TRANS
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TABLE 37: UNFINISHED SYMPHONY OIL I
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TABLE 41: HARD ROCK TOTAL FINAL CON
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TABLE 45: HARD ROCK COAL IN TPES BY
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METHODOLOGY PROCESS Methodology 1 A
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References BGR (2016): Reserves, Re
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THE GRAND TRANSITION ACCENTURE STRA
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World Energy Scenarios, published b
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World Energy Scenarios

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