WINFO Issue #11

WINFONov. 18–24, 2016 

Issue #11 

CFL 

Playoff Picks 

College 

Football Plays 

MORE NFL FROM 

DEMPSON 

4 Tips for 

Winning More 

Best Bets - 

NFL Week 11

IN THE ISSUE 

IN THE ISSUE 

10 

3 The Good, The Bad, The Ugly 

4 Greg Dempson 

5-6 Wine and Whining 

7-9 NFL Analysis 

10-11 Totally Covered 

12 College Football Picks 

13 Three Down Football 

14-15 NHL Analysis and Picks 

16 101 

17 Futures Foray 

7 

13 

2

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY 

THE GOOD, 

THE BAD 

AND THE 

UGLY 

Quote of the Week 

“Are you f****** kidding me” 

Who said it: 

Me...at about 1:00 Sunday afternoon as I 

watched the Chiefs’ Marcus Peters strip the ball 

away from Kelvin Benjamin. 

The context: I did something you just shouldn’t 

do, even though I know better, having been 

around the sports betting game for a while. 

What was it that I did? I counted a play as a win 

before the game went final and paid the price. 

The last time I saw Cam and the Panthers they 

were cruising with a 17-3 fourth quarter lead (and 

my Carolina -3 play looked safe vs. a Chief team 

that looked horrible)...yada, yada, yada, I flip back 

just in time to see Peters change all that. The 

quote above slipped out as Benjamin gave up the 

ball and my mental check mark turned into a big 

red X. 

C’est la vie. On to next week we go. 

The Ugly 

Didn’t have to go digging for The Ugly this 

week. Our Game-by-Game NFL Analysis 

clunked to a 5-9 against the spread record 

in Week 10. Yeah, ugly. A couple of games 

slipped away late (see Carolina above), but we 

caught a break here and there as well and truth 

is we’ll be on the right side of our share of lucky 

bounces, so it all comes out in the wash. 

Not fun looking at the Xs piling up throughout 

the day Sunday. 

The Bad 

Our NHL Picks page gets “The Bad” tag from 

last week’s issue. They went 1-3 for -197, so 

there’s that little hole to start climbing out of. 

The Good 

A few bright spots to highlight: 

• We won our NFL Best Bet on the Packers-Titans 

Over, which is always nice when the 

overall games don’t go so well. In the past we 

usually have two NFL Best Bets, sometimes 

three and once in a while a lonely single. This 

week we have a pair of them. 

• Jarvis won his Top Over/Under play from the 

Totally Covered feature, hitting the Under in the 

Chiefs-Panthers matchup. You can check out 

Jarvis’ breakdown of every NFL Total this week 

again on pages 11 and 12. 

• Neil Alexander served up a 3-0 mark with his 

NFL plays. On Page 5 this week, Neil uncorks 

a nice Chilean Cab Sav and three more plays. 

On to the new issue. Have a great week everyone! 

WHAT WAS 

IT THAT 

I DID? 

I COUNTED 

A PLAY AS A 

WIN BEFORE 

THE GAME 

WENT FINAL 

AND PAID 

THE PRICE.» 

3

GREG DEMPSON 

CAN SEAHAWKS DELIVER FOR 

THE 12TH MAN THIS WEEK? 

by Greg Dempson 

Sunday Night Football hits Washington, DC as the Pack look to right the ship 

In 1999 I began offering up my 

knowledge, systems and thoughts 

via a weekly column for the national 

newsstand publication Winner’s Edge. 

That publication eventually transitioned 

into Every Edge when it entered the 

US market, which has now morphed 

into the publication Winfo - in essence 

it’s “Winamorphosis.” 

Of all the games played this past 

week, one of the bigger shockers was 

the straight up Seahawks win vs. the 

Patriots in Foxboro. A goal line stand 

by Seattle at game’s end sealed the 

victory. Seattle produced 420 yards of 

offense while holding New England to 

385 yards. 

Meanwhile the Eagles dispatched 

of the Falcons, (24–15,) resulting in 

Atlanta’s lowest scoring output of the 

season as the Falcons had scored 30 

or more in their previous three games. 

Home field advantage has indeed 

helped the Eagles, (5–0,) but it’s a 

different story on the road as Philadelphia 

is 1–4 straight up and against 

the spread, defeating only the Bears 

in Week 1 - with rookie quarterback 

Carson Wentz going 0–4 against the 

spread and straight up since that win 

vs. Chicago allowing 24, 27, 29 and 

28 points. Wentz has tossed only two 

touchdowns vs. four interceptions in his 

last four starts. 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Seattle 

Seahawks 

The Mash Unit 

The Eagles might be without cornerback 

Nolan Carroll, (concussion 

protocol,) plus CB Leodis McKelvin has 

an injured hamstring leaving them with 

three healthy cornerbacks (all rookies) 

available for this contest. Right tackle 

Lane Johnson is suspended and left 

guard Allen Barbe is also injured and 

questionable this week. 

Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson is 

healthier and his mobility is certainly a 

plus for an Eagles defense that doesn’t 

fare as well away from home. 

Awesome Angles 

• With Pete Carroll as their head 

coach I note the Seahawks are 10–4 

ATS when at home and favored by 7 

or less points, plus they’re also 8–1 

at home when off a straight up dog 

win with Carroll on the sidelines. 

• The Seahawks are 21–8 ATS in 

home games after gaining 400 or 

more total yards in their previous 

game 

Onto This Week’s NFL selection 

Last week’s pick on the Bears lost, 

(boy…did it ever!. I begin this new 

journey at 0–1. 

My Winfo selection for this week is on 

the Seahawks at –6 points( -115). 

College Football Pick 

Duke at Pittsburgh 

The Panthers did something last week 

that no other team was able to do 

this season; they defeated Clemson, 

and they did it as a road dog of 21.5 

points, (43–42.) The Blue Devils are 

only 1–3 straight up on the road this 

season but they’re 3–1 ATS. Last week 

Duke overcame a 14-point deficit while 

producing 467 yards of offense and 

upsetting North Carolina, (28–27,) as a 

10.5 point home dog. 

Winning Angles 

• The dog is 20–10 ATS in Pittsburgh’s 

last 30 contests. The 

Panthers are also 6–14 when laying 

wood since 2014. 

• Pittsburgh’s defense was on the 

field for 95 plays last week, I expect 

Duke to pull away in the second 

half and they’re also playing with 

additional rest having played North 

Carolina on Thursday the 10th. 

• Since 2014 Duke is on a 11–4 ATS 

streak as an underdog. 

Winfo Selection 

I am backing the underdog in this 

contest, my selection is on Duke at +8 

-110, (also a play at +7.5.) 

Good luck this week! 

You can visit Greg at 

www.gregdempsonsports.com 

4

WINE AND WHINING 

WINE &WHINING 

by Neil Alexander 

THE WINE 

As I sit down to write this week’s column, the 

bottle that’s accompanying me is the 2013 Max 

Reserva Cabernet Sauvignon from Errazuriz, a 

Chilean producer who typically punches above 

their weight class. 

It’s a great effort with cherry notes and green 

bell pepper on the nose. You will notice vanilla 

notes on the palate from the oak treatment, 

along with similar cherry flavors from the palate 

and some spice, and the acids and tannins 

balance nicely with the fruit. 

It packs a decent finish for a $21 wine. 

LOOKING AHEAD 

Four teams on bye in Week 11 — Falcons, Broncos, 

Jets, and Chargers. 

Week 10 was considered the week of parity with the 

lion’s share of lines set at 3 points or less. Week 11 

presents a whole new kettle of fish, with a few pickems, 

and a handful of favourites at 7 points or more, including 

the Patriots (-14) at San Fran, Steelers (-9) at Cleveland, 

Dallas (-7) hosting the Ravens, and KC (-7.5) hosting the 

Bucs. Oh NFL, we do love how you keep us guessing. 

"I could easily write 500 words about the Rams ineptitude. 

Inexplicably they have four wins, and two of them 

came in games where they failed to score a TD." 

5

WINE AND WHINING 

that their first overall pick, Jared Goff, 

may finally be ready to take the helm 

this week. 

Either way the Rams QB issue 

shakes out this week, I like the Dolphins 

as a road pickem. 

Green Bay at Washington 

Line: Washington -2.5 

I’m not one to back the favorites often. 

But in this case, I cannot help myself. 

I won last week taking Tennessee as 

a home dog versus Green Bay. And 

I’m going back to the well. 

Sunday Night Football hits Washington, DC as the Pack look to right the ship 

THE WHINING 

(and NFL PICKS) 

Going 3-0 last week with my picks, 

and backing three dogs that all won 

outright, there is little time (or inclination) 

for whining tonight. Let’s keep 

this train rolling. 

New Orleans at Carolina 

Line: Panthers -4 

Both of these teams clutched defeat 

from the jaws of victory last week. The 

Panthers, by allowing the impotent KC 

offense to score 17 answered points 

in the 4th quarter, which included a 

pick 6 — allowing the Chiefs to eek 

out a 20-17 road win. 

For the Saints, I’m afraid it was much 

worse. They marched down the field 

in their two-minute drill, scored a 

TD and were left to simply kick the 

extra point to send the game into OT. 

Whoops, wait, what? A rookie safety 

leaps over the center, blocks the 

attempt, while his teammate (another 

rookie safety for what it’s worth) 

scoops up the loose ball and returns it 

the length of the field for two points. A 

subsequent Saints challenge did not 

reverse the call. 

How do you come back from a loss 

like that? This is a loser leaves town 

affair. Both teams have their issues, 

which is reflected in their records, 

however, both are fortunate to play 

in the NFC South. 8 or 9 wins will 

give either team a legitimate shot at a 

playoff birth. 

Given the short week, I lean with the 

home team laying the 4 points. 

Miami at LA Rams 

Line: Pick’em 

The Fins come out of the gate this 

season winning only one of their 

first five games. Their current star 

RB (Ajayi) was left back home in the 

doghouse to sulk for one road game, 

and then their veteran star RB (Foster) 

subsequently retired. You follow? 

They fire not one, but two offensive 

linemen that were being used as stopgap 

measures until the starters were 

healthy enough to return. Well, that 

was four weeks ago, and they have 

won exactly four straight games since 

the big O-linemen are back and Ajayi 

has been installed as the de-facto 

starter. 

I could easily write 500 words about 

the Rams ineptitude. Inexplicably they 

have four wins, and two of them came 

in games where they failed to score 

a TD. Let me sum up the Rams… 

elite defense, shocking offense led by 

Case Keenum. Rumors are swirling 

In my view, the Pack are a mess, 

and it’s not a time to R-E-L-A-X. 

They have one win out of their past 

five games, and that came against 

the lowly Bears. Their offense is one 

dimensional, and their defense, well 

there are no words — allowing the 

Titans to put 6 TDs on the board last 

week. 

I’m legitimately surprised that I only 

have to lay less than a field goal to 

cover in this one. I get it, they are 

the Green Bay Packers, they are 

only one game out of top spot in the 

woeful NFC North, but they are not 

the Green Bay Packers of old. Keep 

riding the wave. 

Washington’s professional football 

team (-2.5) is my play. 

Best of luck this week. 

Last Week: 3-0 

Season: 3-0 

From Errazuriz, 

a Chilean producer 

who typically 

punches above their 

weight class 

6

NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS 

New Orleans at Carolina 

NFL ANALYSIS 

AND PICKS 

Line: Panthers -3.5 

Over/Under: 53 

Set-up: Both teams were on the losing 

end of very rough losses last week 

and now they have a critical divisional 

game to play. 

While there’ll be a lot of talk about 

fireworks on the scoreboard with 

these two offenses, the fact is their 

respective defenses have been 

taking incremental steps forward 

as the season progresses 

– yes, even the Saints’ D, 

who are obviously not in 

Carolina’s tier, have been 

getting a little better. 

The New Orleans 

offense isn’t the same 

away from the Superdome, 

but they do 

present challenges and 

should be able to match a 

Carolina offense that can 

sputter at times. We’ll put our 

money behind Brees - look for 

the Saints to hang in there and 

give the Panthers all they can 

handle. 

Suggested Play: Take New Orleans 

plus the points. 

Tennessee at Indianapolis 

Line: Colts -3 

Over/Under: 52.5 

Set-up: Both teams are off upset wins 

over the Green Bay Packers - the Titans 

win being of the more impressive 

variety. Indy had a bye week in-between 

their big win and this divisional 

– WEEK 11 

THE CARDINALS 

ONLY ROAD WIN THIS 

SEASON WAS VS. THE 

LOWLY NINERS, BUT 

THIS SET-UP PROVIDES 

A REAL OPPORTUNITY 

FOR ROAD WIN #2. 

tilt. Mariotta has looked great the last 

stretch, buoyed by a running game 

that makes everything easier for a QB. 

He isn’t turning the ball over, while still 

pushing the ball downfield. Nothing 

about the Colt defense to this point tells 

us they’ll be able to control the running 

game while also limiting the passing 

attack. The balance they bring to 

matchup with a team of Indy’s calibre 

does create trouble. 

The Colts can also score with anyone 

when they get into the mode of slinging 

the ball around. Frank Gore does 

give them a running game, and while 

there is nothing sexy about Gore’s 

style, he is effective (especially for 

a 47-year old man). 

We like the Over in this one 

more than a side play, as we 

see the trend continuing of 

both teams putting up points. 

Yes, the line is high, but it’s high 

for a reason - these are two offenses 

that bring more to the table than the 

defenses who are being asked to slow 

them down this week. 

Suggested Play: Take the Titans +3 

Jacksonville at Detroit 

Line: Lions -7 (+105) 


Set-up: The Lions don’t win by a lot 

and they don’t lose by a lot, that’s just 

the way they do things (all nine of their 

games this year have been decided by 

9 points or less). The Jaguars aren’t a 

good football team and their ball security 

can drive you crazy at times (they’re 

way underwater in turnover differential), 

but they do have a defense that 

7


THE BILLS ARE OFF THEIR BYE WEEK, WHILE 

THE BENGALS HAVE TO PLAY ON A SHORT 

WEEK (AFTER THE MONDAY NIGHTER). 

is able to bail them out when they’re 

facing a mediocre opponent - which 

they are this week. 

We liked the underdog on first pass 

and after running the game through 

the numbers and systems, it mostly 

all pointed to Jacksonville, including a 

nice 40-16 ATS system that came as 

a play against the home favorite in this 

scenario. 

Suggested Play: Take the Jaguars +7 

(-115) 

Tampa Bay vs. Kansas City 

Line: Chiefs -7.5 


Set-up: The Chiefs just keep on 

winning, no matter how dire things 

look at points during the game. After 

last week’s comeback win in Carolina, 

they’re now on an 18-3 straight up run. 

But this isn’t a team we’re comfortable 

laying a lot of points with and this 

counts as a lot of points. There’s a very 

good chance the Chiefs book a win in 

this one, but the Bucs are more than 

capable of making this a real battle. 

Yes, Arrowhead is a tough place to play, 

but unless you really stumble badly, 

Kansas City doesn’t have the lineup, or 

approach, to run away from you. 

A quality system of 39-12 ATS falls on 

the underdog in this spot and the Bucs 

have shown some bite when playing 

as a road dog after an offensive outburst 

of 34 or more points (8-1 ATS in 

that spot). 

Suggested Play: Take the Buccaneers 

Chicago at NY Giants 

Line: Giants -7.5 


Set-Up: The Bears were brutal last 

week. Putting in a particularly ugly 

performance was Kristin Cavallari’s 

husband, who is all but done in a Chicago 

uni. But rolling with Eli has little 

appeal laying more than a TD. Indifferent 

might be the term. 

Suggested Play: We’ll hold our nose 

and take Chicago. 

Arizona at Minnesota 

Line: Vikings -2 


Set-Up: The Vikings spiral continued 

last week, in a spot we felt they had 

a good shot at breaking through, but 

alas, it was another loss. The offense 

is so inconsistent, with no running 

game in sight, which cascades into a 

passing game that simply isn’t effective. 

The stress on a good defense is 

showing and that unit can no longer be 

counted on to carry the load. 

The Cardinals only road win this season 

was vs. the lowly Niners, but this 

set-up provides a real opportunity for 

road win #2. The Arizona D shouldn’t 

be troubled by any matchup here, 

facing a leaky O-line, no running threat 

and a passing game that can’t make 

up the difference. 

The Vikings are going to win again, but 

we don’t think it’s this week. 

Getting 2-points with a team our power 

rating program show as winning by a 

field goal; that’s a decent overlay. 

Suggested Play: Take the Cardinals 

Buffalo at Cincinnati 

Line: Bengals -3 


Set-up: The Bills are off their bye 

week, while the Bengals have to play 

on a short week (after the Monday 

nighter). Now that said, it’s not like Rex 

Ryan is exactly Coach Belichick coming 

out of a bye week - not quite the 

same edge. But it is worth noting that 

we have a rested team playing one of 

the Monday night participants. 

Buffalo have struggled lately, but the 

Bengals are in danger of missing 

the playoffs for the first time in a long 

while (six years). Even with the recent 

struggles, we like the Bills in this spot 

vs. this Cincy side. 

Suggested Play: Take the Bills +3 

Baltimore at Dallas 

Line: Cowboys -7 


Set-up: The Cowboys are going to 

have a stumble at some point and 

facing a non-conference opponent with 

virtually no profile (i.e. it’s not the New 

England Patriots), coming off a wild 

road win, with division rival Washington 

on deck, this could be the time for a bit 

of a letdown. We struggle a bit with the 

situation for Dallas, but this Baltimore 

team just doesn’t give us any confidence 

they can take advantage, even if 

the Cowboys were a little flat. 

Dallas’ O-line should be the star once 

again, blowing open holes for Elliott 

all day and protecting Dak. With the 

Cowboys pencilled in as the straight up 

winner, we’re not going to get cute and 

hope a struggling AFC team can keep 

this to a TD. 

Suggested Play: Take the Cowboys. 

8


Pittsburgh at Cleveland 

Line: Pittsburgh -8 


Set-Up: You know, the Browns have 

actually been a good bet...in the first 

half. They’ve been surprisingly competitive 

for the first two quarters of games, 

before all hell breaks loose the wheels 

come off. We don’t doubt the wheels 

will come off at some point today, as 

usual, but if you are looking for a play 

here, we’d suggest taking a shot at the 

Browns plus the points in the first half. 

Suggested Play: Browns in the first 

half, Steelers for the game. 

Miami at LA Rams 

Line: Miami -1 


Set-Up: A “not-ready-for-primetime” 

Jarod Goff gets his first pro start this 

weekend. The speculation circling the 

QB spot has been pretty much nonstop 

since training camp. Jeff Fisher 

has been furiously putting his fingers in 

the dyke to keep the flood from hitting, 

but it finally became too much. He has 

acquiesced and handed the ball to the 

rookie. Let the chips fall where they 

may. Mr. Goff, please let me introduce 

you to Mr. Suh. 

Miami have been on a nice run, picking 

up four straight wins. They booked a 

road win last weekend in San Diego 

and stayed on the West Coast all 

week, rather than going home and 

coming all the way back out west. LA’s 

offense has been awful and that’s highly 

unlikely to change with the QB swap. 

Should be a long day for the youngster 

and that offense. 

Suggested Play: Take the Dolphins 

New England at San Francisco 

Line: Patriots -13 


Set-up: We can’t lay 13 on the road, 

even though this could be woodshed 

time for the Niners and our power 

rating program has this at -15. No way 

New England loses this one, after that 

painful loss last week. 

If you do want to have a little action 

on this matchup, taking a shot on the 

Patriots team total could be worth a 

look. That said, we’ll take the 13 points 

and hope San Fran can find a way for 

a backdoor cover. 

Suggested Play: Niners +13 

Philadelphia at Seattle 

Line: Seahawks -6.5 


Set-Up: This is a tough spot for a team 

that has had problems on the road. 

Philly just aren’t equipped to come 

into Seattle and handle a Seahawks 

team that are starting to roll. Lots to like 

about the Eagles in some spots, but 

this isn’t one of them. Seattle give the 

12s tons to cheer about. 

Suggested Play: Take the Seahawks. 

**Best Bet – Take the Over 43** 

Green Bay at Washington 

Line: Washington -2.5 


Set-Up: Like the Over in this one more 

than a side, but when it does come to 

picking one of the teams, we’re going 

with the overrated, beat-up, dysfunctional 

Packers. Yeah, the Packers 

have been bad...god were they bad 

last week in Tennessee. No Clay 

Matthews, no running game, Rodgers 

is out of sorts, it all screams stay way... 

we even have a couple of systems 

against Green Bay. But going with the 

gut. 

And again, we do expect to see some 

points put up. 

Suggested Play: Take the underdog 

Packers. 

**Best Bet – Take the Over 50** 

Houston at Oakland 

Line: Raiders -6 


Set-Up: What’s 2,000 feet higher than 

a Mile High game in Denver? A game 

in Mexico City. Not quite sure what to 

expect from that variable, but breaking 

this game down in a normal setting, 

we see the Raiders being a clear 

step ahead of the Texans. Oakland 

is vulnerable on defense, but it’s their 

pass defense that can be attacked. 

That weakness isn’t one Houston are 

positioned to take advantage of with 

one of the poorest ranking QBs in the 

league running the offense. 

The location adds to some unpredictability, 

but we still like the Raiders. 

Suggested Play: Take Oakland 

Best Bets Record: 1-0 ATS 

Overall ATS Record: 5-9 

9

TOTALLY COVERED 

by Jarvis Simes 

NFL WEEK 11 

OVER/UNDER 

REPORT 

We had a winner on our best 

bet last week and we look to 

keep things rolling this week. 

Keep in mind is that eight of 14 teams 

this week are seeking revenge from a 

meeting that took place within the past 

couple seasons. 

NFL revenge games this season are 

going “Over” at a rate of 61% (50-32- 

1), more than 20% higher than the 

historical rate since 1989. Consequently, 

the Over/Under market could be 

due for a major correction and Week 

11 has shown the strongest concentration 

of “Under” plays of any week, all 

season since 2003. 

We’ve noted a few of the stronger 

revenge plays that are “live” in Week 

11. Best of luck! 

1. New Orleans at Carolina 


The Panthers are 31st in second-half 

points allowed (16.1) and facing a 

Saints team that’s second only to the 

Falcons for combined scoring (58.7 

PPG). It has generated the highest 

Thursday night total since Week 5, 

2015 (Falcons, Saints) but the midweek 

trend for teams that blew a double-digit 

lead is 1 over and 6 unders. 

2. Tennessee at Indianapolis 


The Titans went 18-46 SU from 

2012-15, so they play a lot of revenge 

games. In divisional road revenge, 

Tennessee is 12-20 O/U. 

3. Jacksonville at Detroit 


The Jaguars have a record of 16 

overs and 4 unders in their past 20 

non-conference games. 

4. Tampa Bay at Kansas City 


The Bucs are 12-1 O/U as a road dog 

off a home win in which they recorded 

four-plus QB sacks. 

5. Chicago at New York Giants 


The Bears got more ‘Bad News’ 

this week when star wideout Alshon 

Jeffery was suspended four games. 

They’ll be hard pressed facing a Giants 

team off back-to-back home wins but 

sometimes when athletes spend too 

much time listening to local media talk 

about how great they are, it creates an 

opportunity for desperate dogs to catch 

them off guard. 

New York’s entire defense put on a 

show vs. Cinci Monday night and they 

now sit 5th best, allowing just 59-percent 

completions. It puts the Bears 

“live” in a profile for road dogs off a 

road loss that is 24-9 O/U (73%) including 

eight-straight overs since 2011. 

Pick of the Week: Take the Bears 

and Giants OVER 

10

TOTALLY COVERED 

6. Arizona at Minnesota 


This is a revenge game for Minnesota 

from last December and although the 

Vikings are down, they are far from out 

thanks to that 5-0 start. Mike Zimmer’s 

recent home record in non-divisional 

revenge games is 5 overs, 2 unders, 

and a push. One of the unders was 

the Igloo Bowl last January against Seattle. 

The other seven games averaged 

49.9 total points. 

7. Buffalo at Cincinnati 


The Bills have played five-straight 

overs but their overall record as a road 

dog since the start of 2014 is 4 overs 

and 11 unders. 

8. Baltimore at Dallas 


The Cowboys’ Tour de AFC continues 

this week against Baltimore and big 

home faves off back-to-back non-conference 

games are 6-15 O/U in database 

history. 

9. Pittsburgh at Cleveland 


Home teams whose win percentage 

is less than .200 (beyond Week 2) are 

6-24-2 O/U following a game where 

they scored at least 10 points shy of 

their posted team total. 

10. Miami at Los Angeles 


Home teams off a road dog win in 

which they failed to score a touchdown 

are 8-1-1 O/U. 

11. New England at San Francisco 


New England leads the league in first 

quarter scoring (9.0) by more than 

2.0 points over the next best team 

(Cowboys). TD-plus road faves with a 

tendency to start fast are 1-11 O/U in 

the past five years. 

12. Philadelphia at Seattle 


The Hawks are off a huge win over 

New England and face an Eagles team 

that has really struggled away from 

home this year. Philly owes Seattle one 

from a beatdown in their own building 

back in 2014 (Week 14) but points will 

be hard to come by here. Seattle is 

“live” in an angle for conference home 

faves off back-to-back interconference 

games that have produced 3 overs 

and 11 unders. 

Pick of the Week: Take the Eagles 

and Seahawks UNDER 

13. SNF: Green Bay at Washington 


Washington is 1-6 SU their past seven 

against Green Bay and this is their 

chance for redemption after that 35-18 

loss in January. There is no reason for 

either of these teams to hold back and 

including that playoff game, Washington 

has played 7-straight overs at home. 

14. MNF: Houston at Oakland 


The Raiders host the Texans at Azteca 

Stadium in Mexico City. No, the move 

to Las Vegas is still undecided. This 

counts as a home game for Oakland 

and they just finished their bye week. It 

might be tough to regain that momentum 

but at least they catch Houston 

off a divisional game. The past eight 

neutral site NFL games with a favorite 

laying -4 points or more have ended on 

7 overs and 1 under. 

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis 

Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty 

Sports. Jarvis spent years working with 

Winner’s Edge in its newsprint days, 

focusing on NHL and pro football. A 

hardcore number cruncher, Jarvis is a 

certified SDQL Master and shares information 

@PickSixtySports as well as 

www.picksixtysports.com. 

11

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS 

WEST VIRGINIA HOSTS OKLAHOMA IN PRIMETIME KICKOFF 

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SEASON IS WINDING DOWN AND TEAMS 

HAVE ONLY TWO MORE WEEKS TO IMPRESS THE COLLEGE 

FOOTBALL PLAYOFF SELECTION COMMITTEE. 

Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame PK 

Virginia Tech lost their top 25 ranking 

last week, following their loss to 

unranked Georgia Tech. This week 

the Hokies take their 7-3 record on the 

road to Notre Dame. 

The best way to describe the Fighting 

Irish this season is inconsistent. Two 

weeks ago they lost a heart breaker to 

Navy 28-27, but righted the ship (pun 

intended) last week, thumping Army 

44-6. Even after this big win, they are 

still a sub-.500 team, which won’t sit 

well in South Bend. 

Virginia Tech has a woeful 1-4 record 

against the spread, and we lean to the 

Irish in this one. It’s their last opportunity 

to get to .500 before heading out 

next weekend to California to face a 

tough USC team in their season finale. 

We’ll take Notre Dame in this coin 

toss. 

Oklahoma @ West Virginia +3 

It’s a big, Big 12 battle this week as 

the #9 Sooners roll into Mountaineer 

Field to face #14 West Virginia. 

Oklahoma is a perfect 7-0 in conference 

play, while West Virginia’s only 

blemish this season is a road loss at 

Oklahoma State. 

This is a tricky spot for the Sooners as 

next week they face rivals Oklahoma 

State. Factor into this equation, the 

Mountaineers good defense, and their 

home crowd, and this shapes up to be 

a close affair. 

We like West Virginia +3. 

USC vs. UCLA +11.5 

USC is on a nice roll ripping off six consecutive 

wins after losing three of their 

first four games, all to ranked teams. 

UCLA snapped a four-game losing 

streak last week, beating Oregon State 

in a shootout 38-24. 

The Trojans march into the Bruins den 

as 11.5 point favourites. 

We have a couple of nice systems in 

play that favour the home underdog. 

The first has USC winning by 7, and 

another system has the double-digit 

home dog 36-9 against the spread. 

We’ll take UCLA +11.5 

Navy -7 @ East Carolina 

Not exactly one of this weekend’s 

marquee matchups, but our bankroll 

doesn’t mind a little growth on the 

lesser lights. 

With a 5-1 conference record, Navy 

has a shot at the best overall record in 

the American Conference this season. 

Led by QB Will Worth, the Midshipmen 

head into East Carolina on a nice 

roll, winning 4 of their last 5 games. 

At the other end of the spectrum, we 

have the Pirates — with only one win 

in their past eight games. We think 

the Pirates are overmatched on both 

sides of the ball. Lay the points. 

The play is Navy -7. 

Look for a close Big 12 battle as #14 West Virginia hosts #9 Oklahoma 

12

THREE-DOWN FOOTBALL 

CFL 

CONFERENCE 

FINALS 

Coming off an 0-1 mark last week 

in the Conference Semi-Finals, as 

the Lions won but couldn’t cover, 

we look at both CFL playoff games this 

weekend. 

Sunday, Nov. 20th 

Edmonton Eskimos 

vs. Ottawa RedBlacks 

Line: Edmonton -2 

What is something that has never happened 

before in the CFL? A crossover 

team has never made it to the Grey 

Cup game. 

The Eskimos are looking to be the first. 

After a road win in Hamilton last Sunday, 

Edmonton have now won six of 

their last seven. They do come in with 

questions at QB, as Mike Reilly left the 

game last week with a hand injury. He 

THE ESKIMOS’ D-LINE 

WAS A BIG REASON 

FOR THE WIN LAST 

WEEK AND THEY 

COULD BE A BIG PART 

OF THE STORY HERE. 

says he’s ready to go this week, and it 

appears that is the case, but it is still a 

lingering concern. 

No such worries for Ottawa, as Henry 

Burris looks great. But they have injury 

issues along the O-line that are concerning. 

The Eskimos’ D-line was a big 

reason for the win last week and they 

could be a big part of the story here. 

When Edmonton has the ball, they’ll 

rely on that huge O-line to keep the 

running game rolling. We like this edge 

for the visitor. 

Pick: The Eskimos opened as a 1-point 

underdog, but after early action now sit 

as a 2-point favorite. Not excited about 

betting into the worst a line move like 

that, but we like Edmonton to make 

some history by becoming the first 

crossover team to navigate their way to 

the big game. Backed by that offensive 

line, we’ll lay less than a field goal if a 

healthy Reilly gets the start. 

BC Lions vs. Calgary 

Stampeders 

Line: Calgary -7 

The Stampeders have been the 

class of the league all season, with 

few bumps on the way to what was 

pre-destined since June – a home 

game in the Western Conference Final. 

Jonathon Jennings is a star and we 

love watching this youngster play, but 

Bo Levi Mitchell will be the league’s 

Most Outstanding Player and is full 

value. That’s a big check mark on the 

Calgary side in this matchup, but only 

one of several. 

Calgary’s O-line allow Mitchell and the 

running game to do their thing, and despite 

a very good Lions front seven, we 

see the home team getting the edge in 

that battle. 

Pick: A bit of a letdown, but we’re going 

to pass on a play in this one. We’re not 

comfortable laying this many points, but 

don’t feel strongly enough about BC 

to put a unit on the underdog. We’ll be 

watching, but without any action. 

Enjoy the games. 

13

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS 

CAN CANUCKS SURPRISE 

BLACKHAWKS ON SATURDAY NIGHT? 

We follow Crosby and the Penguins around this week 

Friday, November 18th 

Pittsburgh at NY Islanders 

The Penguins arrive in New York 

fresh from getting shelled by the 

Capitals on Wednesday night – 

really shelled. This is a team that 

has shown they’ll bounce back after 

a bad outing, going 3-0 in their last 

three games after a loss. Small 

sample size admittedly, but the Pens 

combination of depth, skill and leadership 

in the room are always a good 

bet to look at after a bad night. 

They’ll be spoiling to tee off on 

someone and next up is an Islander 

team that have had more bad nights 

than good over the first month. John 

Tavares hasn’t been able to carry 

the load by himself and none of the 

supporting cast are showing signs of 

stepping up. They’ll be facing a highly 

motivated opponent tonight. 

We’ll take the Penguins on the 

road. 

Montreal at Carolina 

A bottom-feeder that offers a bit of 

value. There’s a good chance the 

Hurricane won’t face the best goalie 

in the world and a good chance they 

catch a Canadiens team that is ripe 

to be upset. 

Granted Montreal haven’t taken too 

many nights off this season, regardless 

of who the opponent is (with one 

notable exception being that 10-0 aberration 

vs. Columbus). No question 

they’re one of the toughest teams to 

face in the league thus far, but the 

set-up isn’t favorable for them here. 

We have a team that’s had a few 

days off after a nice win over Florida, 

heading south for a quick one vs. 

Carolina – then they’ll turn around 

that night and fly back home to face 

the Leafs on Saturday night in the 

feature game of the evening. With all 

the hype around the Toronto game, 

the Canes could be catching an unfocused 

team with an eye on getting 

back home for Saturday’s game, 

rather than taking care of business 

tonight. Play on the underdog 

Hurricanes 

Saturday, November 19th 

Pittsburgh at Buffalo 

We’re taking a flyer on the Sabres 

here, but only, and this is a big but, 

if they won last night vs. New York. 

14

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS 

If the Islanders beat the Pens on 

Friday, we’ll be staying away. Truth is 

we’re a little shakier on this play after 

Pittsburgh got lit up on Wednesday 

by the Caps. 

When we initially circled this as a 

potential spot to play the Sabres, we 

were hoping Pittsburgh was coming 

in on a bit of a winning streak, but 

that’s not the case. The Washington 

loss put a bit of a twist on it. 

But we did decide to go ahead – but 

only for a half unit (whatever you 

normally play on a game, risk half of 

that). 

The set-up is a visitor coming off 

games vs. the Caps and Islanders, 

with a big Ranger on deck. Pittsburgh, 

playing their third game in four 

nights, will face a home team and fan 

base geared up to host the Stanley 

Cup champs. 

It’s a good spot for a shot with the 

home underdog. 

Chicago at Vancouver 

Ask Canuck fans who their big rival is 

and Chicago will be high on the list. 

Ask any Blackhawk fan who their big 

rival is and chances are you’ll hear 

nary a mention of Vancouver. Such 

is the current state of the Canuck 

organization. A few years back these 

two used to go to war in both the 

regular season and playoffs. Chicago 

still does that whole playoff-run thing, 

while Vancouver not so much. Hard 

to have a real rivalry when one team 

isn’t relevant. 

But the city of Vancouver continues to 

view this matchup through a 10-year 

old lens, getting jacked up about a visit 

from those hated Hawks. And with few 

bright spots to hold on to, a Saturday 

nighter vs. Kane, Toews and crew 

is one of them. Chicago played last 

night in Calgary. Hopefully the Flames 

played with some grit. And this is 

going to sound crazy, but hopefully the 

Canucks show up the same way they 

did vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. Yeah, 

that Rangers game; the one where the 

Blueshirts hung seven goals on the 

home team. Vancouver actually carried 

the play throughout the first period vs. 

a very good New York team, before 

giving up a goal late and then Markstrom 

struggled the rest of the way. 

If the Canucks lose, this could be the 

last game behind the bench for Willie. 

Hey, maybe the team wants home 

gone and will tank, but if they do show 

up, they have a shot and at the price 

we’ll be getting, we’re playing the 

home team. 

Taking Vancouver. 

Monday, November 21st 

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh 

Yeah, we just realized to that we 

seem to following the Penguins 

around, but it is what it is. Here we go 

with another Pittsburgh game as part 

of the analysis. 

Hoping no Hawk 

fan is cheering 

on Saturday 

This is the first of a home-and-home 

with the Rangers. New York have 

been bullying their way through the 

league to kick-off the new season. 

They play with pace, roll four lines 

and have a great goalie. But they’ve 

also been playing a fair number of 

teams who can be bullied – that’s not 

the case tonight. 

Pittsburgh matches up nicely vs. this 

NYR lineup and with the last change 

on home ice, they can get the personnel 

matchups they want. We give 

the edge to the home team. 

Take Pittsburgh. 

Calgary at Buffalo 

The Saturday game vs. Pittsburgh is 

more about the situation and some 

nice value, while this is about a 

matchup they can handle and a setup 

that favors Buffalo. Injuries have 

been a major drag for the Sabres, but 

Calgary are floundering as bad as 

anyone. Look for a home win. 

Take Buffalo. 

15

THREE-DOWN FOOTBALL 

4 TIPS TO HELP YOU WIN MORE 

By Brad Elliott 

Whether you play $5.00 a game 

or $500.00 a game, here are 

a handful of tips you’re going 

to want to commit to. 

1) Same Old, Same Old 

Bet the same every game – that is 

your mantra. 

Now if you’re a seasoned vet in the 

betting game, you can stray from this 

as a hard rule...but not far away. 

However, if you’re new to wagering 

on sports, do yourself a big favor and 

stick to it. This is part of overall money 

management, a topic I’ll be writing 

more about in the coming weeks, but 

embrace this one tip and it will make 

things so much easier whatever 

stage you’re at. 

No matter how much you like a play 

compared to another one, risk the 

same. It’s how you avoid going 2-1 

but losing money, as the one loss was 

the game you stepped it up on. 

Remember your mantra – bet the 

same every game. 

2) Favs Early, Dogs Late 

When you place your bets can make 

a big difference. 

As a general rule, if you like an underdog, 

you’re likely going to get the best line the 

closer it gets to game time. The reason 

for this is most of what are termed “public” 

bettors like to bet favorites. So money 

will show up on the favorite, adding value 

on the underdog as sportbooks try and 

balance the action. 

Conversely, if you like a favorite, 

there’s no better time than the present 

to place that wager. Chances are the 

odds on the favorite are not going to 

get better the longer you wait. 

Even if you aren’t going to roll up the sleeves, you need to do some research 

It’s not foolproof by any means, but 

adhering to the principle of betting 

favorites early and underdogs late will 

serve you well over time. 

3) Go Shopping 

It’s important to get the best odds 

you can – which means doing a little 

shopping around. 

Over time, this will make a big difference. 

Now if you play the provincial 

sports lotteries in Canada, this isn’t an 

option, but you can still shop for value 

within their weekly lineup of odds. 

If you play elsewhere, it’s a good idea to 

have options to choose from. Take the 

time to check what lines are available at 

the various outs and take the best one. 

4) Do Some Homework 

Doesn’t need to be a lot, but you gotta 

do some. Some players, irrespective 

of how much they wager, love pouring 

over the matchups, digging into the 

stats, depth charts, head-to-head 

battles, trends, systems, historical 

data, etc. They’re passionate about 

the process of handicapping. 

That was me and still is. From the 

moment I started wagering on sports 

(while at university) I dove in the deep 

end of the information pool –I was 

playing $40-to-$60 a week with the 

provincial sports lottery and 10-to-15 

hours a week handicapping. 

But even if rolling up the sleeves 

isn’t your thing, it’s important to stay 

informed if you’re dialing up plays on a 

regular basis. 

That can take the form of reading a 

magazine like this one, or bookmarking 

a couple of sites you can rely on 

for accurate info, or following a few 

people on social media who know 

what’s going on. 

There’s a virtual ocean of information 

out there; it’s a matter of finding sources 

that fit your needs. 

Obviously nothing guarantees you’ll 

be a long-term winner, but if you’re just 

starting out, keeping the above in mind 

will help set you on the right path. 

And always remember to play responsibly 

and enjoy it. 

16 

*** 

Brad Elliott has been wagering on sports for over 20 years. He was a key contributor to the 

very popular (and profitable) weekly NHL Analysis in the Winner’s Edge magazine.

CAN THE 

G-MEN 

MAKE 

IT BACK 

TO THE 

BIG 

FUTURES FORAY 

GAME? 

NFC Championship Futures 

I usually feel that there isn’t much point speculating on the merits of any particular 

NFL team until around the American Thanksgiving. Given that Thanksgiving 

is next week, we have liftoff. 

The ‘Hawks and Cowboys are the two best teams in the Conference. Yep, no argument 

there. Problem is that they are only paying +220 and +230 respectively. This is 

just not good enough, given the innumerable variables at play. Let’s keep moving. 

The Atlanta Falcons can put some points up on the board, however, when the 

cold weather comes, in the immortal words of (insert old-school name here: 

Ditka, Landry, etc) defense is what wins championships, not points. 8-1 isn’t 

enough with these defensive shortcomings. 

Packers are 12-1. I’m convinced that this is the year that the Pack is simply not the 

Can the Giants make another unlikely run? In Eli we trust! 

Pack. Yes, they have Aaron Rodgers 

at the helm, but I’m feeling anything 

but relaxed when it comes to their 

prospects this season. There is significant 

inconsistency on both sides of 

the ball. Move along. 

Ah, we have reached the sweet 

spot. A reasonable shot at success 

combined with a decent payoff. Ladies 

and gentlemen, I present to you 

the New York Giants at 13-1. Hear 

me out. They are currently 6-3 and 

have the Bears and Browns up next. 

I’m going to go out on a limb here 

are speculate that they’ll be 8-3 in a 

fortnight. From their remaining five 

games, they’ll go 2-3 at worst and 

have 10 wins (and possibly 11 or 

more if they catch some breaks). In 

any event, they have a reasonable 

expectation of making the playoffs. 

I’ve seen this show before. The 

unlikeliest of circumstances that 

get them through wild card games, 

conference finals, and even Super 

Bowls (see 2008 and 2012). Getting 

that weird favourable bounce from 

the football gods above, or that 

late-game turnover that secures the 

win, and oh yeah, making catches 

against your helmet. 

It’s still one week before Thanksgiving, 

but this has all the eerie makings 

of another Giants run. And at 

13-1, I’ll have a go. 

17

WINFO Issue #11

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