WINFO Magazine

WINFODec. 15–21, 2016 

Issue #15 

Alexander Now 

12-3 ATS 

OVER/UNDER 

PICKS 

COLLEGE 

BOWL PLAYS 

College Bowl 

Season Begins

IN THE ISSUE 

IN THE ISSUE 

4 

3 The Good, The Bad, The Ugly 

4 Greg Dempson 

5-6 Wine and Whining 

7-10 NFL Analysis 

11-12 Totally Covered 

13-14 College Football Picks 

15-16 NHL Analysis and Picks 

1 Futures Foray 

13 

15 

2

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY 

THE GOOD, THE BAD 

AND THE UGLY 

It’s Bowl Time 

Get ready to gorge yourself...on all the 

Bowl games you can handle. It gets 

going this week and we’ll be right there 

along with you the whole way. We 

have one Best Bet from this week’s 

schedule (which actually has several 

intriguing matchups, which often isn’t 

the case to open Bowl season). 

We also highlight a couple of leans 

we’ll likely be on closer to game time. 

Looking forward to a good Bowl run. 

The Good 

A pretty good serving of “Good” in 

last week’s issue, starting with Greg 

Dempson winning with his NFL play 

on the Over in the Washington-Philadelphia 

game. That makes it backto-back 

winning weeks for Greg, who 

stumbled a bit out of the gate. His 

overall record is now 3-4 ATS. Greg 

has an underdog play highlighted in 

his column this week. 

Following Greg’s lead, the red-hot 

Neil Alexander enjoyed a nice Classic 

Borassa while knocking down another 

2-1 mark against the spread with his 

three NFL picks. That puts Neil at 

12-3 against the spread so far this 

season. He has another three picks 

lined up on page 5. 

Jarvis also scored a win with his 

Totally Covered selection, taking him 

to 3-4 with his Over/Under plays. You 

can check out the Totally Covered 

section for nuggets of info on all the 

NFL matchups each week. 

The NFL Best Bet was a winner, 

taking those to a tidy 7-1 against the 

spread so far this season. We have 

two going this week. One total and 

one side play. 

The Bad 

Falling into the “Bad” category last 

week was the overall NFL Game 

Analysis. It was a pretty choppy scene 

going through those pages. We ended 

up 6-9-1 ATS after the Monday night 

game went final. It was the first losing 

week after three straight on the winning 

side, so we’d built up a bit of a cushion. 

The Season Record for these plays 

sits at 40-31-3 against the spread. 

And now on to the “Ugly” 

The Ugly 

The NHL was a bit of a bomb last 

week. We ended up 1-4 with the 

five picks. Truth is we were close 

to a good week, but for a bounce 

here and there, but then again two 

weeks ago we flirted with trouble, but 

were the beneficiaries of a fortuitous 

bounce or two – so it all usually 

evens out. We’ve been around this 

long enough to know not to whine 

when things seem to go against you, 

as undoubtedly we’ve been on the 

right side many times as well. 

The NHL Analysis has now slipped 

below the even mark, after three 

weeks in positive territory. We’re at 

-0.8 units (down less than one unit). 

And there you have it – all the best 

this week with whatever you play! 

See you next Thursday. 

The Winfo Team 

NEIL ALEXANDER 

ENJOYED A NICE 

CLASSIC BORASSA 

WHILE KNOCKING 

DOWN ANOTHER 2-1 

MARK AGAINST THE 

SPREAD WITH HIS 

THREE NFL PICKS 

3

GREG DEMPSON 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 

AT DALLAS COWBOYS 

The Bucs look to slow down the pom pom action in Dallas this Sunday 

When the season first started, and before Tampa Bay defeated Atlanta on 

the road in week, I could not fathom any possibility that NBC-TV would 

be flexing the Buccaneers/Cowboys game to Sunday night in Week 15. 

Tampa Bay has won five in a row and the last time that happened was in 2002 

when they won the Super Bowl against the Raiders. Oddly enough the Raiders 

appear to be playoff bound after a long hiatus and no….I do not believe that 

Tampa Bay will play Oakland in a rematch from that 2002 season. The Buccaneers 

still have a lot of work to do for an invite to the post season. After their trip 

to Dallas they play the Saints on the road before ending the regular season at 

home vs. the Panthers. 

The Stat Zone 

• Tampa Bay has two quality road wins, at Atlanta and Kansas City, while also 

defeating Carolina, San Francisco and San Diego away from home. In their 

last five games, all victories, the Bucs have allowed a combined 64 points 

or 12.8 points per game. They held potential Super Bowl bound Seattle to 5 

points. 

• As for Dallas, they are off their second loss to the Giants and previously eked 

out a win at Minnesota vs. an offensively challenged Vikings team. 

• Dallas was able to score 24 or more points in 10 consecutive games before 

heading into that Minnesota match-up, they scored 17 in the dome and were 

then held to 7 at Giants Stadium. 

by Greg Dempson 

• Each team is excellent in their 

time of possession - Tampa Bay 

possesses the ball for an average 

of 31:57 minutes, while Dallas holds 

the ball for an average of 32:23 per 

contest. 

• The Bucs average 21.8 first downs 

per game while the Cowboys gains 

an average of 22.8 first downs per 

game. 

• When a team is rolling along such 

as Dallas, the odds makers take notice 

and lines are adjusted, perhaps 

explaining in part as to why Dallas 

has lost three consecutive games 

ATS while Tampa Bay has won and 

covered five straight. 

• In last week’s win against the 

Saints, the Bucs held New Orleans 

to 135 yards below their season 

average. I also note that Tampa 

Bay has 14 takeaways in their last 

five victories. 

• Dallas is 4–16 ATS when a home 

favorite and hosting a foe off a 

straight up win. 

All Systems Go 

• After a game where they forced 

three or more turnovers, play 

against home favorites when 

hosting an opponent that’s off two 

consecutive games with a turnover 

margin of +1 or better. This system 

is 95–67 = 67% ATS since 1983. 

Last Week in Review and This 

Week’s Selection 

My selection on Washington and 

Philadelphia over the total was a winner 

last week. I’m now climbing back 

after a right start, sitting at 3-4 against 

the spread with my NFL and College 

football selections. 

This week I am backing the Tampa 

Bay Buccaneers +7 at –115 as my 

Winfo game of the week 

Good luck! 

4

WINE AND WHINING 

WINE &WHINING 

by Neil Alexander 

I’ve been drinking wine and betting on sports for a long 

time. Sports betting started earlier in life, but in terms of 

time spent learning and indulging in everything wine; it 

is now close to even. I take great pleasure in both pursuits 

as they offer hedonistic pleasure and satisfy my intellectual 

curiosity. I’ll take “what do wine and sports betting have in 

common for $400 Alex.” 

Last week’s picks went two for three for the second consecutive 

week, putting the column record at a ridiculous 

12-3. Two easy covers with the Chiefs and Vikings as 

short favorites, but stubbed my toe on the Eagles with plus 

points versus the Washington professional football team. 

For those keeping score at home, this is the second consecutive 

week that the Eagles have cost me. 

I’m involved in a number of weekly NFL picks contests 

and have been doing well, but nothing like the 12-3 noted 

above. This got me thinking. I make the column picks 

while tasting and assessing the wine. I’m the first to admit 

that making sports picks after a glass or two in isn’t the 

best long-term strategy for picking winners, but there 

probably is something to keeping it simple, and not over 

thinking the data. In any event, I’m gonna keep with the if 

it ain’t broke, don’t fix it idiom and raise my glass to more 

winners than losers. 

5

WINE AND WHINING 

I’ll take “what do wine and sports betting 

have in common for $400 Alex. 

Elouan means good 

light in Celtic 

THE WINE 

Given how many winners I’ve been 

cashing, I’ve upped my game on the 

wine front this week. I was a big fan 

of the Meiomi Pinot Noir before they 

sold the business to a massive wine 

conglomerate and the quality went 

downhill faster than the Bills shot at a 

playoff spot this century. But this is a 

story for another time. 

The wine in question is a 2013 Pinot 

Noir made by Elouan, which is the 

new venture from the man who created 

Meiomi. Naturally, this piqued 

my curiosity and I thought it was 

time to give it a go. It retails for $42 

in British Columbia, so the expectations 

are high. 

There are notes of smokiness, plum, 

and cherry on the nose, which are 

further reflected on the palate with 

additional spice and cedar notes from 

the generous use of oak. It is medium 

bodied with a medium finish. It actually 

reminds me of Meiomi — smaller 

in style, but with earthiness and more 

acidity, which is a reflection from its 

origin. At the price point, I have to 

say that the earlier Meiomi’s offered 

significantly more value. 

NFL PICKS 

Tennessee @ Kansas City -5 

I’ve backed the 10-3 Chiefs previously 

during this run, and I’m happy 

to do so again. I don’t think the 

7-6 Titans and their “exotic smash 

mouth” football are ready for the road 

in Kansas City. Tennessee’s only 

road wins are against Miami, early in 

the season before their offensive line 

stabilized and in Chicago. Kansas 

City and their rabid fans are a whole 

new level of intensity that the Titans 

have not yet experienced. The Chiefs 

are balanced on both sides of the ball 

and they’ve unleashed Ty “freak” Hill 

the past few weeks. I think they are a 

legitimate Super Bowl contender. 

Lay the five points and take KC. 

Detroit +4.5 @ NY Giants 

The Giants are doing New York Giants 

things again this season. Their 

wins are wholly unconvincing, with 

Eli often looking rather confused on 

the gridiron. Against Dallas last week 

Eli threw a pick and lost two fumbles. 

But thanks to a five- yard slant to 

OBJ, and a subsequent 61-yard TD 

run, the Giants inexplicably won 

10-7. The Lions have been a surprise 

team for me this year and are 

on a tidy five-game win streak and 

winners of eight of their past nine. 

And Stafford has led the Lions to 

eight, 4th quarter comebacks this 

season. I view this game as a coin 

toss, and in a coin toss, I’ll take the 

points. 

Take the Lions +4.5 points. 

Jacksonville @ Houston -6 

I do not like the Texans, but I like 

the Jaguars even less. Another play 

that I’ve made during this winning 

run is against the Jaguars. As I’ve 

mentioned previously, they are the 

darlings of the sharp bettors but have 

only won twice this year. Houston’s 

home ATS record is 4-1-1, and I look 

for it to reach five wins after a visit 

from the incompetent and disinterested 

Jaguars. 

Take the Texans -6. 

6

NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS 


LA Rams at Seattle 

Line: Seattle -15.5 

Over/Under: 39.5 

Set-up: Both teams were embarrassed 

last week. One has the ability 

to snap back and take it out on their 

opponent, the other has limited options 

– one of them being to fire their coach. 

Seattle’s not going to lose this game 

at home, after that debacle in Green 

Bay, but how do you lay over two TDs 

with the Hawks. The Rams still bring 

a top 10 defense (that would be better 

than that if they didn’t have to spend so 

much time on the field). 

Yes, that D will be asked to do everything 

to keep this respectable. Hopefully 

D-coordinator Williams lays off the fullon 

blitzes he loves so much. Watching 

that blowout loss to Atlanta last Sunday 

so many of Matt Ryan’s big plays came 

when he made the right read on a blitz. 

Guys were running wide open all day 

when he sent extra pressure. 

We’ll back the big dog and hope their 

defense can do the heavy lifting. We 

also like this game to stay Under the 

total. As we highlighted above. The 

Ram defense can play. They’ll get 

tired, as those three and outs from their 

offense rolls them right back out, but 

we like them to do a good job of keeping 

the Hawks to long drives that churn 

the clock, and enough stalled drives. 

Suggested Play: Take the Rams and 

the points 

**Take the Under**Best Bet 

Miami at NY Jets 

Line: Dolphins -2.5 


Set-up: The line dropped from 3 to 2.5 

right after open, with the total plunging 

from 41 to 38.5, as the Dolphins deal 

with life without Ryan Tannenhill. Truth 

is, this isn’t like going from Andrew 

Luck to Scott Tolzien. This is Tannenhill 

to Matt Moore. The drop-off, 

while real, isn’t of the “falling off a cliff” 

variety. Moore didn’t getting pulled out 

of a Home Hardware store in Dubuque 

to fill in. He’s been around a while and 

knows this offense. We’ll trust Moore 

over putting our faith in Bryce Petty 

vs. this Dolphin pass rush. Just don’t 

see that Jet O-line controlling Suh and 

Wake’s stunts. Moore gets to face a 

bad team with a bad pass defense. So 

there’s that too. 

Suggested Play: Take the Dolphins 

Tampa Bay at Dallas 

Line: Cowboys -7 


Set-up: Was hoping Dallas pulled off 

an impressive win on Sunday night, 

as we wanted this line to open with 

the hook, but that loss squashed the 

chances of us getting 7.5 with the 

Bucs. We’ll still line up with a play 

on Tampa Bay getting a touchdown. 

The Cowboys hadn’t lost in over two 

months, so it will be interesting to see 

After getting roughed 

up last week, Coach 

Carroll and the 

Seahawks get an 

opponent they can 

rough up 

how Dak Prescott reacts. The Tampa 

Bay defense has been playing well, 

and of note is the speed at linebacker 

from Alexander and David. They can 

run with Elliott, which should result in 

him breaking very few, if any longer 

runs. That means the Cowboys will 

face the kind of down-and-distance 

situations no one likes and Dallas 

has really struggled with. They’ve 

been awful on third down the last two 

games and if they can’t get those big 

chunks on first down, they’re going 

to be in tough again vs. an improved 

secondary with talent at corner. 

The Buc offense, while limited, can 

create mismatches and do need to 

be respected both on the ground and 

through the air. We like getting the 

seven points with a Tampa team that 

has several favorable matchups. 

Suggested Play: Take the Bucs 

Detroit at NY Giants 

Line: Giants -4 

Over/Under: 41 

Set-up: Stafford’s finger is a storyline 

7


and worth paying attention to. He’s 

put together an MVP-level season 

thus far and desperately needs to 

finish strong. The Giant D stepped up 

last week vs. the Cowboys, but they’re 

still a group with issues. However, 

New York’s quick-hit passing game 

will serve them well, as it tempers 

a big strength for Detroit - that pass 

rush and it also serves to get the ball 

into the hands of the best playmaker 

on the field in OBJ. But the Giants 

struggle to score points and that’s not 

changing, even with the advantage 

they enjoy with their offensive scheme 

vs. the Detroit strengths. 

We like the Lions to keep it close with 

a good shot at the win. 

Suggested Play: Take the Lions 

Philadelphia at Baltimore 

Line: Baltimore -5.5 


Set-up: Like the Ravens in this one. A 

defense that is angry and really good 

is a bad combination for a rookie QB. 

Just don’t see the youngster Carson 

Wentz having a productive day and 

the running game certainly won’t bail 

him out. Coming off that loss to New 

England on Monday night, Baltimore 

faces an Eagle team that has struggled 

all year on the road. With an 

O-line that is relatively healthy, Flacco 

will go after a Philly secondary that 

doesn’t have the speed to keep Perriman 

and Wallace under wraps. We 

expect a solid win for the home team, 

as their defense gives them a few 

extra possessions and a nice edge in 

the field position battle. 

We’ll lay the points with the Ravens. 

Suggested Play: **Take Baltimore** 

Best Bet 

Green Bay at Chicago 

Line: Packers -5.5 


Set-up: It’s not going to be an easy 

out for the Packers, but break it down 

to Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Barkley 

and we’ll go with Rodgers to win by a 

TD or more. The Packer offense has 

found its stride the last month and 

there’s no reason to believe the Bears 

will have the answer to handle them. 

Chicago’s pass rush just isn’t going to 

be able to do enough to bail out that 

porous secondary - particularly when 

you consider how the Packer O-line 

has been playing. They’ve been great 

at protecting Rodgers and Rodgers is 

so good at extending plays. Bad mix 

for this Bear defense. 

And the fact is, Green Bay won’t need 

to hang a big number to win and cover. 

Chicago’s offense just isn’t able to 

consistently move the ball and create 

enough points. If the Pack can stay 

away from playing Santa Claus and 

gifting the Bears points (as the Lions 

did last week), they should leave town 

with a comfortable win and remain in 

the playoff hunt. 

Suggested Play: Take the Packers 

Indianapolis vs. Minnesota 

Line: Vikings -4 


Set-up: A non-conference battle in 

Week 15 that has really big implications 

- nice to get as it doesn’t come 

around often. Both teams are alive 

in the playoff hunt, but the path isn’t 

easy and it gets very narrow for the 

loser here. The Colts gave away a 

winnable game last week at home 

vs. a good Houston defense and it 

doesn’t get easier in Minnesota. The 

Viking D can rush the passer, they’re 

strong in the back and D-coordinator 

Zimmer always arrives with a great 

game plan. 

That said, this is still a Viking offense 

led by Sam Bradford. An offense that 

has a difficult time creating mismatches 

and putting an opposing D into 

tough spots. Even an Indy D with 

holes. We’re just not comfortable 

laying more than a field goal with the 

home team, who won’t be able to get 

separation. 

Suggested Play: Take the Colts 

Weather could be 

a factor in a 

couple of games 

this weekend 

Cleveland at Buffalo 

Line: Bills -10 


Set-up: Hard to see how the Browns 

go on the road and beat a Bills team 

who have the number #1 rushing 

offense in the league. Oh, and Cleveland 

sport the worst run defense in 

the NFL. If you have LeSean McCoy 

on your fantasy team, you’re guaranteed 

a playoff win (that last sentence 

might have been inserted solely as 

a jinx against my semi-final fantasy 

playoff opponent), But jinxes aside, 

McCoy will get fed and should boast 

some gaudy numbers by the time 

the final gun goes off. However, the 

game script could work for a Browns’ 

cover. RGIII wasn’t good last Sunday, 

but this week he gets a defense that 

is often in man-to-man coverage and 

are susceptible to the deep ball. 

Suggested Play: Browns cover 

8


Tennessee at Kansas City 

Line: Chiefs -5.5 


Set-up: The Titans and the Chiefs 

kind of do the same thing - Kansas 

City just does it better. And when 

you add in this weird development in 

which Andy Reid is letting Alex Smith 

go downfield, it adds another element 

that has been working. KC are very 

tough to beat at home (I think the 

last time I wrote that the Buccaneers 

stuffed it in my face a few days later), 

however winning and covering have 

been two entirely different things for 

the Chiefs. We like Tennessee and 

watch for the battle between Taylor 

Lewan and Justin Houston - we see 

Lewan winning that one. But even 

with that, we’re more comfortable 

siding with a home team we have 

winning the game. 

Suggested Play: Take the Chiefs 

Jacksonville at Houston 

Line: Texans -5.5 


Set-up: The Texans don’t pretty it 

up, but if the playoffs started today, 

they’re hosting a home game. Most 

of the “hard to watch” content around 

this team centers on the Brock 

Osweiler-led passing game. That 

likely won’t change this week, but the 

Texans defense will be all over an 

anemic Jags offense. Bortles has protected 

the ball a little better recently, 

but they’re going to have problems 

driving the ball and scoring points as 

usual (the Jags haven’t scored more 

than 23 points since September). And 

when Houston has the ball, their big 

guys up front will open lanes and the 

ground game can pace the offense all 

day. Look for a Texans win and cover. 

Suggested Play: Take the Texans 

New Orleans at Arizona 

Line: Cardinals -3 


Set-up: For us, this one comes down 

to the Saints D-line vs. the Cardinals 

O-line. This is going to be a problem 

area for Arizona all day (look at 

the tape of their game last week vs. 

Miami - it was rough). They should 

be able to consistently get pressure 

on Carson Palmer, who isn’t proficient 

at extending plays or effectively 

moving away from the trouble. David 

Johnson is a true star and will get 

his 100-plus yards, but if Brees can 

put some points on the board early, 

which we believe he can, that changes 

things for DJ and forces Palmer to 

the air. Not a good scenario for the 

home team. 

Suggested Play: Take the Saints 

San Francisco at Atlanta 

Line: Falcons -13.5 


Set-up: A ton of injuries, a 1-12 

record, a brutal loss last week, a 

cross-country trip late in a lost season 

- nothing too appealing here. We 

always lean to taking the big points, 

but in this matchup we’ll eschew that 

approach and back the big favorite. 

Somewhat reluctantly. We just have 

no confidence Chip Kelly can figure 

out a way to stop the Falcon passing 

game, and even if he does, then 

you’ll see Devonta Freeman and the 

running game go off. Carlos Hyde 

and the ground game could keep the 

Niners hanging around for a while, 

but even then we see it all slipping 

away late. 

Suggested Play: Take the Falcons 

9


WELL, THE RAIDERS COMING TO TOWN 

MIGHT PERK YOU UP JUST A LITTLE, AS FOR 

THE FIRST TIME IN FOREVER OAKLAND IS 

ACTUALLY PLAYING MEANINGFUL GAMES 

IN DECEMBER AND GUESS WHAT, YOU 

HAVE A CHANCE TO TOSS A FEW 

ROCKS INTO THEIR WINDSHIELD. 

New England at Denver 

Line: Patriots -3.5 


Set-up: We don’t expect another 

meltdown for the Patriots at Mile High, 

as happened last year in the AFC 

Championship game, but payback for 

that last trip to Denver isn’t going to be 

easy for New England. Yes, the Broncos’ 

run defense has suddenly sagged, 

but their pass D remains top-notch and 

they can get on the QB – pressure is 

mandatory if you’re going to disrupt 

Brady. See what they did in that playoff 

game last January for evidence. 

Denver’s offense will be fine vs. 

the New England D. That’s not the 

concern. The issue as always when 

facing New England is slowing down 

their offense. We’re betting the Broncos 

will do enough defensively to give 

their team a shot. 

Suggested Play: Like the Broncos 

as a home dog 

Oakland at San Diego 

Line: Raiders -3 


Set-up: There really isn’t much left to 

cheer about if you’re a Charger fan. 

Your team is out playoff contention 

and packing up to leave town. So why 

bother? Well, the Raiders coming to 

town might perk you up just a little, as 

for the first time in forever Oakland is 

actually playing meaningful games in 

December and guess what, you have 

a chance to toss a few rocks into their 

windshield. Tripping up Oakland could 

be a salve for all the nagging wounds 

that come with being a San Diego 

supporter. The thing is, the stadium 

will likely be three quarters silver and 

black, as Raider-fan shows up to represent. 

Hardly much of a home field 

advantage. 

Carr’s thumb bothered him last week, 

but in the warm Southern California 

sun, it shouldn’t be an issue. With 

All-Pro guard Osemele back, we don’t 

see San Diego generating pressure 

without blitzing, which will open up 

shots for the passing game. Amari 

Cooper could be in for a big day. Look 

for Khalil Mack to be in Rivers grill all 

day when SD has the ball. When that 

happens, Rivers is usually good for a 

few killer mistakes. 

Suggested Play: Take the Raiders 

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 

Line: Steelers -3.5 


Set-up: Le’Veon Bell went off last 

week and is going to get his yards 

again this week. We get that. Yet, 

we like the home underdog in this 

matchup. Andy Dalton is playing well 

and while of course they miss AJ 

Green and Gio Bernard, the offense, 

and their entire team have played well 

the last couple of weeks. They’ll be 

motivated vs. a bitter division rival and 

in what we think could be a low-scoring 

affair, we’ll take the points. 

Suggested Play: Take the Bengals 

Carolina at Washington 

Line: Redskins -6.5 


Set-up: Things obviously aren’t right 

in Carolina, as they flounder after 

that magical run last season. Some 

will point to the departure of Josh 

Norman, who will line up on the other 

side of the field Monday night, some 

will point to the Super Bowl hangover 

effect, but whatever it was, this has 

been a lost season. 

But they’re still playing hard down the 

stretch, playing with pride and this is a 

talented squad. For a team a long way 

out of the playoff picture, they’re not 

a team any team with playoff hopes 

wants to see the last few weeks. 

The Washington passing game 

does cause issues when looking at 

the matchups. The secondary is a 

concern, but the Panthers are getting 

healthier and should have a plan to 

take the top of DeSean Jackson’s 

route tree. we like Cam Newton to 

lead the team to a very strong Monday 

night showing. 

Suggested Play: We like the Panthers 

Best Bet Record: 7-1 against the 

spread 

Season Record: 40-31-3 against 

the spread 

10

TOTALLY COVERED 

NFL WEEK 15 

OVER/UNDER 

REPORT 

by Jarvis Simes 

There are so many ‘big picture’ 

things to consider when handicapping 

football games at this 

time of year. Playoff aspirations, 

season win totals and other futures, 

coaches on the hot seat, divisional 

revenge — And this is on top of all 

the stuff you already take into account 

such as stats, travel, systems, etc. 

In a way it’s like the first month of the 

season, when you’re looking at ‘Week 

2 home openers’ or a head coach’s 

September record, but the glaring 

difference here is that now you truly 

know the teams. 

One thing I noticed on Monday while 

having a second look through the 

Ravens - Patriots game is that the 

angle we discussed in last week’s 

issue, ‘Home faves in the mid-40’s’, 

went 3-0 to the “Under”. Baltimore and 

New England went over so that went 

against the trend, but the updated 

record for this late-season profile is 

32-54 O/U, or 63-percent. 

Three other games were initially “live” 

last week when I wrote the first draft 

of Totally Covered on Tuesday, but 

either the ATS line flip-flopped (Arizona 

at Miami), or the total moved out 

of the range (Jets-Niners, Bears-Lions). 

Those three games went 1-2 

O/U but don’t count towards the 

overall system record. 

The three games to circle this week are 

Titans at Chiefs, Colts at Vikings and 

Kansas City’s 

home record 

since Andy Reid 

took over the 

team is 3 overs 

and 18 unders 

against any team 

that allows more 

than 60-percent 

completions 

Bucs at Cowboys. Remember, this is 

just one small piece of the puzzle. It’s 

an angle that has produced a winning 

angle for “Under” bettors in five consecutive 

years but be sure and use due 

diligence when looking at these or any 

other games from this huge card. 

Good luck this week. 

Los Angeles at Seattle 


John Fassel takes over for Jeff Fisher 

and his first test is in Seattle against 

a team that was just ripped for 38 

points. Big home faves off a road fave 

loss where they were blown out have 

played 7 overs, 1 under and a push in 

recent years. 

Miami at New York Jets 


When playing at home off back-toback 

games where they lost the turn- 

over battle, New York has a record of 

21 overs and 6 unders. 

Detroit at New York Giants 


HC Jim Caldwell’s road record since 

taking over the Lions is 5 overs and 

16 unders. Note that three of those 

overs took place in the month of September, 

too. 

Philadelphia at Baltimore 


Carson Wentz beat the Bears in 

Chicago Week 2 and since then, he’s 

0-6 SU/ATS on the road with 5 overs 

and 1 under. The Eagles have been 

outscored 28-20 in those six losses. 

Green Bay at Chicago 


Road faves that have held their opponent 

to less than 20 points in three 

consecutive weeks are a 59-percent 

11

TOTALLY COVERED 

“Over” play in database history (63- 

44-1). The Packers’ record in this spot 

is 4 overs and 1 under. 

Indianapolis at Minnesota 


HC Mike Zimmer’s all-time record 

when the posted total is 42 or more is 

10-23-4 O/U. 

Cleveland at Buffalo 


Cleveland gives up 6.0 yards per play, 

tied for second worst in the league. 

Buffalo’s record against these porous 

defenders is 21 overs and 8 unders. 

Tennessee at Kansas City 


Kansas City’s home record since 

Andy Reid took over the team is 3 

overs and 18 unders against any 

team that allows more than 60-percent 

completions. The Titans currently 

allow 61.5-percent. 

Jacksonville at Houston 


The Texans’ overall record in December 

the past five years is 4 overs 13 

unders and 2 pushes. Only one of 

seven home games finished on the 

high side. 

New Orleans at Arizona 


Each of these teams owns a slim, 

positive scoring margin on the season 

and they fit a strong system for non-divisional 

teams that has played over 9 

of 11 times in the past two seasons. 

The two games with totals of 50 or 

more finished with 54 and 65 total 

points. 

San Francisco at Atlanta 


The Falcons have played eight games 

on artificial turf this season and all 

eight finished over the posted total. 

The average total in those games was 

The Texans’ overall record in December 

the past five years is 4 overs 13 unders 

and 2 pushes 

50.3 and the average final was 63.1 

combined points scored. 

New England at Denver 


The Patriots and Broncos are “live” 

this week in a playoff revenge angle 

for teams that met the previous 

season in January. The recent run for 

this angle is 9 overs and 4 unders with 

games averaging 51.3 total points. 

Oakland at San Diego 


Divisional road faves in the final 

month of the season have produced 

a record of 9 overs, 22 unders and a 

push in the past four years. 

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati 


Cincinnati has been relegated to the 

role of spoiler and they owe Pittsburgh 

one from a 24-16 loss in Week 2. The 

Bengals have held four-straight teams 

to fewer than 20 points and although 

Pittsburgh is a step above those 

clubs, the Steelers are on the road for 

a second-straight week. 

This promises to be a physical game 

with some potential weather and there 

is no guarantee AJ Green will return. 

The “Under” trend for divisional road 

faves noted above also applies here 

(9-22-1 O/U) and Pittsburgh’s current 

run vs. teams with a sub-.500 record 

is 10-straight unders. Of those 10 

games, seven were on the road and 

the “Under” hit by an average of 8.2 

points per game. We tackled the AFC 

North last week and we’ll stay for 

another go. 

TC Pick: Take the Steelers and 

Bengals UNDER 

Tampa Bay at Dallas 


Tampa Bay is completing 62.6-percent 

of its passes this year compared 

to 58.3 in 2015, when they finished 

29th overall. When the total is lower 

than 51, Dallas has a home record 

of 20 overs and 11 unders the past 

five years against any foe completing 

more than 60-percent of its passes. 

Carolina at Washington 


Washington has lost three-straight 

games against Carolina since 2011 

and last year was an absolute 

blowout, 44-16. This is the Club’s 

first home game since pounding the 

Packers 42-24 in Week 11 and Washington 

has now played over the total 

in six-straight games. They’ve also 

covered five of six and Jay Gruden’s 

record in this spot is 11 overs and 1 

under since taking over the team. 

Totally Covered is written by Jarvis 

Simes, lead handicapper at Pick Sixty 

Sports. Jarvis spent years working 

with Winner’s Edge, focusing on 

NHL and pro football. A hardcore 

number cruncher, Jarvis is a certified 

SDQL Master and shares information 

@ PickSixtySports as well as 

www.picksixtysports.com. 

12

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES 

Let the Bowl 

Season begin! 

And so it begins – the Bowl 

Season kicks off this week with 

a handful of games. We look at 

the full schedule of games this week, 

with a Best Bet from the Las Vegas 

Bowl. 

Enjoy all the college football action. 

December 17th 

AIR FORCE RESERVE CELEBRATION 

BOWL 

North Carolina Central vs. Grambling 

State 

The college football season bowl 

schedule kicks off at the Georgia 

Dome in Atlanta. 

Both teams went undefeated in their 

respective conferences this season, 

and it’s the first Division 1 postseason 

appearance for North Carolina Central. 

The line opened Grambling State 

-15.5 and is now -14.5. 

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL 

Texas – San Antonio vs. New Mexico 

This is UTSA’s first bowl appearance 

in school history. Unfortunately for 

UTSA they are travelling to New Mexico, 

where the Lobos will enjoy de facto 

home-field advantage. Both teams 

have great ground attacks and New 

Mexico features a triple option. The 

line opened New Mexico -7.5 and has 

moved to -7. 

LAS VEGAS BOWL 

Houston vs. San Diego State 

An interim head coach will lead Houston 

Cougars into this bowl game as 

Tom Herman was recently hired at 

Texas. It will be interesting to see how 

Houston responds as a 3.5-point favorite 

in the contest. This is San Diego 

State’s record seventh consecutive 

bowl game. Which team will handle 

the Vegas environment better? 

Houston features the third best rush 

defense in the nation and is facing a 

team whose M.O. is to run the ball. 

**Take Houston -3.5**Best Bet 

AUTONATION CURE BOWL 

Arkansas State vs. Central Florida 

Two mediocre teams meet as 7-5 

Arkansas State travel to Orlando to 

face 6-6 Central Florida. Given the 

home state location, it is a de facto 

home game for Central Florida. Both 

teams are 3-2 ATS in their past five 

games. Arkansas State lost their first 

four games and finished 7-1 SU after 

switching to a freshman QB. The line 

opened Central Florida -6.5 and has 

moved to -5.5. 

Lean Arkansas State +5.5 

13

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS 

RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL 

Appalachian State vs. Toledo 

Appalachian State is looking to capture 

their second straight Camellia Bowl. 

These teams are evenly matched as 

reflected by the point spread. It should 

be a decent tussle with Toledo’s prolific 

passing offense pitted against Appalachian 

State’s superior defense and 

running game. The line opened Toledo 

-2.5 and is now -1. 

R&L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS 

BOWL 

Southern Miss vs. Louisiana- 

Lafayette 

Both teams had identical 6-6 

campaigns this season however, 

Southern Miss was 3-9 ATS, while 

the Ragin’ Cajuns were 8-4 ATS. 

Southern Miss is led by a senior QB, 

who has designs on an NFL tryout. 

Louisiana Lafayette has also been 

solid in recent bowl games going a 

perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS. The 

line opened Southern Miss -2 and 

has steamed to -4.5. 

December 19 

MIAMI BEACH BOWL 

Central Michigan vs. Tulsa 

Tulsa likes to air it out and the question 

is can Central Michigan keep up? 

Tulsa is 

7-4-1 ATS this season, while Central 

Michigan is 5-7 ATS. Central Michigan 

may be without their leading rusher, 

Spalding, who has a banged up 

shoulder. The line opened Tulsa -11 

and has steamed to -12.5. 

Lean Central Michigan +12.5 

December 20 

BOCA RATON BOWL 

Memphis vs. Western Kentucky 

Two high-powered offenses meet in 

this one. Western Kentucky is 4-0 

straight up and 3-1 ATS in their four 

recent bowl games however will be 

with an interim head coach in this 

one. Memphis is 3-2 in their last 

five games SU and ATS. The line 

opened Western Kentucky -7 but 

has moved to -4.5. 

Lean Over 79.5 

December 21 

SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT 

UNION POINTSETTIA BOWL 

BYU vs. Wyoming 

Both teams sport similar records this 

season with BYU 8-4 SU and 9-3 

ATS, and Wyoming 8-5 SU and 9-4 

ATS. Look for a lot of points in this 

one as both teams can move the 

ball, with both respective defenses 

offering little to stop them. BYU’s 

four losses were by a combined 8 

points. The line opened BYU -7.5 and 

moved to -8.5. 

Memphis Tigers’ fans should see some fireworks on the scoreboard. 

14

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS 

SABRES TWEAKS 

PAY DIVIDENDS 

Friday, December 16th 

NY Islanders at Buffalo 

Interesting fact - Theodore Roosevelt 

was sworn in as president in 

Buffalo, NY back in 1901. That has 

to make him one of only two or three 

(I can only think of one other) not to 

take the oath of office in Washington 

D.C. This is apropos to nothing, 

just an interesting fact about Buffalo 

I stumbled on recently…anyway, 

turning our attention to the Buffalo 

professional hockey team, they 

seem to have a little extra jump after 

Coach Bylsma did some tinkering 

with the top two lines. 

The new combos produced five 

goals and eleven points in the first 

game out vs. the LA Kings. The 

second line of Jack Eichel, Evander 

Kane and Kyle Okposo could round 

into a dangerous unit if Kane can 

start showing up on a consistent basis 

(in that Kings win Matt Moulson 

recorded a couple of points when he 

was slotted in after Bylsma relegated 

Kane to a stint on the fourth 

line). But there were several shifts 

that saw this new line dominate and 

be rewarded. And back on defense, 

Rasmus Ristolainen just keeps on 

impressing. 

We like the looks of the new tweaks 

and think it will serve the home team 

well vs. this Islander team 

Take Buffalo 

Florida at Colorado 

The Avalanche are snuggled in 

tightly with that group of teams at the 

bottom of the league standings, but 

this matchup provides them with a 

favorable set-up on home ice. 

Colorado lost to another Eastern Conference 

opponent on Wednesday, as 

the hot Philadelphia Flyers left town 

with two points. The Avs played them 

tough, but couldn’t get it done. Tonight 

they face a struggling Panthers team 

they can handle. Colorado doesn’t 

have a lot of depth throughout their 

lineup, but with Nathan McKinnon 

and Matt Duchesne down the middle, 

with last change on home ice, this is a 

game they can win. 

Take the Avalanche 

THE BLUE JACKETS HAVEN’T HAD ANY SUCCESS. THEY HAD 

NOTHING TO POINT TO PRIOR TO TORTS ARRIVING, SO 

WHEN HE STROLLED IN, WITH A STANLEY CUP RING TO 

HIS NAME AND TOLD THEM THE WAY IT WAS GOING 

TO BE, THEY ALL JUMPED ON BOARD. 

15

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS 

The Sabres host the Islanders at KeyBank Center this Friday night sporting a new look with their top two lines. 

Saturday, December 17th 

Chicago at St. Louis 

Chicago picked up a win here in St. 

Louis in November, but we like the 

Blues tonight. Obviously the Hawks 

are a top-tier team who present 

matchup challenges for any opponent, 

but the Blues have enough 

established talent (think Vladimir 

Tarasenko and Alex Pietrangelo), 

plus a strong supporting cast (Fabbri 

and Parayko come to mind) to go 

head-to-head with the Hawks. 

We should get a nice number on the 

home team. 

Take St. Louis. 

Tuesday, December 20th 

Los Angeles at Columbus 

Coach Tortorella has been exactly 

what the doctor ordered for this Columbus 

lineup. It’s been an interesting 

journey for Torts, as his routine just 

never caught on with the veterans in 

his last stop up in Vancouver. That 

core group had tasted some success 

(a recent run to the Stanley Cup finals 

most notably) and they just never embraced 

his message. The Blue Jackets 

haven’t had any success. They 

had nothing to point to prior to Torts 

arriving, so when he strolled in, with a 

Stanley Cup ring to his name and told 

them the way it was going to be, they 

all jumped on board. The results have 

been nothing less than spectacular 

as they now have a leading Coach 

of the Year candidate on their bench. 

Columbus just keeps on winning. 

The Kings have had a tough go this 

year and it didn’t get any better this 

week when news broke that Jonathan 

Quick’s bad groin was going to 

keep him out until spring. But despite 

the choppy up and down season thus 

far, the Kings are still the Kings a lot 

of nights. When they show up, this 

roster forechecks relentlessly, which 

is the key to setting everything up 

for them. And with the forechecking 

comes hitting – lots of hitting. They 

lead the league in hits. This style can 

take a lot of the fun out of the game 

for their opponents. 

The Blue Jackets are playing their 

first game back from a road trip. This 

is a spot LA can turn up the intensity, 

be very physical and get the jump. 

We’ll get a good number on the road 

team in a good set-up. 

Take LA 

Last Week: -3.10 

Season Record: -0.80 

16

FUTURES FORAY 

NFL REGULAR SEASON MVP 

This season, more than most it 

seems, has offered surprises at 

every turn. Not only with teams 

rising to the challenge or playing inconsistently 

in any given week, but also 

with players performing likewise. Given 

this reality, there isn’t really an obvious 

MVP candidate this year. 

Let’s take a look at the handful of 

favorites and attempt to come up with 

a reasonable combination of favorable 

odds and the likelihood of cashing a 

winner. 

Tom Brady +150 

The odds on favorite, however, +150 

isn’t enough to compel me to place this 

bet. Yes, he’s had another Tom Brady 

season at the ripe old age of 39, and 

without many of his usual weapons 

with Gronk, Dion Lewis, Edelman et al 

missing significant parts of the season. 

I think the four-game suspension to 

start the season is held against him by 

the voters. 

Ezekiel Elliott +400 

A standout campaign for the rookie 

RB, although it doesn’t look like he’s 

going to reach Eric Dickerson’s rookie 

rushing record, which was a possibility 

earlier in the season. My hesitation 

with Elliott winning is threefold: he’s 

playing behind a Pro Bowl offensive 

line, he’s a rookie, and he’s not a QB. 

I’ll look elsewhere. 

Matt Ryan +600 

A surprise entry here for some, but 

Matty Ice has been on fire this season 

leading the #1 scoring offense in the 

league and boasting a season-long 

113 QB rating. Pretty ridiculous. We 

might have something here. 

Matt Stafford +700 / Derek 

Carr +800 

Stafford is being hailed as Mr. Clutch 

this year, with eight, 4th quarter comeback 

wins already this season. The 

counter argument is that his team is 

mediocre enough to be behind late in 

games, unlike the Falcons who blow 

out many of their opponents. Carr has 

a similar profile to Stafford. Numerous 

come from behind wins, but also 

inconsistent at times, particularly as of 

late. Can’t say I feel great about either 

winning the MVP. 

Aaron Rodgers +900 

Just when I was ready to count him 

and the Packers out, he rallies the 

team. 

R-E-L-A-X right? I should have 

known. He was really inconsistent 

to start the year, but if recency bias 

sways the voting, he’s a strong candidate 

for the award. 

I’ve hit an impasse. Ryan at +600 

or Rodgers at +900, I can’t decide. 

But this doesn’t surprise, as with no 

obvious candidate to win the award, 

you would expect some indecision. 

With the proverbial gun to head, I lean 

Ryan but another option is placing a 

half unit on each gunslinger. 

Just an update on last week’s article 

where we suggested betting YES, on 

the Browns going winless this season. 

If you pulled the trigger and got +130 

odds (bet $100 to win $130) congratulations! 

Making the same bet today is 

-185 (bet $185 to win $100). 

THE FALCONS HAVE 

THE #1 SCORING 

OFFENCE IN THE 

LEAGUE. 

Matty Ice has been 

on fire all season! 

17

THREE-DOWN FOOTBALL 

104th GREY CUP 

Standing between the Ottawa Redblacks 

and their first Grey Cup in 

franchise history is a team being 

called one of the best ever. 

The Calgary Stampeders have lost 

two games all season. They’ve 

clearly been the class of the league 

and nothing about that changed last 

weekend, when they easily handled 

the BC Lions. After all the talk about 

rust, and bye weeks, and not having 

played a competitive game in a month, 

the Stamps put it all to rest from the 

opening whistle. 

Now they arrive in Toronto as 9-point 

favorites over an Ottawa team making 

a return trip to the big game. Last 

November QB Henry Burris and the 

RedBlacks were dealt a heartbreaking 

loss by the Edmonton Eskimos. 

There’ll be a lot of talk of unfinished 

business and not settling for second 

place again, but reality can be a cold 

one. This 2016 Stampeders team 

THERE’LL BE A 

LOT OF TALK 

OF UNFINISHED 

BUSINESS AND 

NOT SETTLING 

FOR SECOND 

PLACE AGAIN, 

BUT REALITY 

CAN BE A 

COLD ONE. 

Even without their touchdown horse, the Stampeders should have plenty to celebrate. 

present real challenges to the whole 

“unfinished business” narrative. 

That said, we appreciate Ottawa 

are not coming to Toronto with any 

thoughts of “just being happy to be 

here”, which does account for something. 

However, what it doesn’t account 

for is the fact Calgary has an edge over 

them in virtually every key head-tohead 

matchup. Oh, and the Stampeders 

will also not be giddy about simply 

making the Grey Cup and feeling like 

they accomplished something by just 

punching that ticket. This is a team that 

has been on a collision course with the 

final game of the season since back 

in June. At no point has anyone in this 

organization thought an appearance 

here constitutes a successful season - 

it’s gotta be a win or this will feel like a 

real letdown. 

The big underdog role suits Ottawa 

just fine. They’ll embrace the storyline 

and try to use that for motivation. The 

Lions did the same last week, talking 

about proving people wrong and that 

whole “us against the world” routine. 

It didn’t matter and we don’t see it 

making much difference after kick-off 

on Sunday. 

The Stampeders depth, preparation 

and execution will serve them well. 

This is a lot of points to lay in any 

game, but particularly one of the 

championship variety. We’d love to 

make a case for the underdog, but 

breaking everything down, the crazy 

thing is, laying only nine looks like it 

offers value. The Stamps win a lot and 

cover the points a lot (19-7 against 

the spread in their last 26 games). It’s 

going to be tough for Ottawa to hang 

in there. 

Suggested Grey Cup Play: 

We’ll lay the points and take the 

Stampeders. 

18

WINFO Magazine

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?