WINFO Issue #17

GREG DEMPSON
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
AT MIAMI DOLPHINS
by Greg Dempson
THE DOLPHINS ARE
9–21 TO THE UNDER
WHEN OFF A ROAD
WIN VS. A
DIVISION FOE.
This is one of a handful games on
the Week 17 card of significance,
as a New England loss and an
Oakland win would drop the Patriots to
the #2 seed. Last season they did not
take care of business at Miami in Week
17. They lost straight up, (20–10,) as
10-point road favorites. That cost the
Patriots home field throughout the playoffs
and eventually they had to play the
AFC Championship game at Denver,
and I am sure if you’re reading this, you
know how that worked out!
New England has actually performed
very well on the road this season going
7–0 straight up and 6–1 ATS.
Since starting the season at 1–4 the
Dolphins have lost but one game and
enter this contest on a three game
winning streak including back-to-back
road wins at the Jets and Buffalo.
Miami’s a big home underdog of +10
points at –120 with a total pegged
at 44.5 as of this report. This line
might be skewed a little based on
New England’s crushing win vs. the
Jets last Saturday, (41–3.) If Miami
wins this game and the Chiefs lose
to San Diego the Dolphins would be
the number 5 seed so each team will
be playing their starters in this contest
and I believe Moore is an upgrade at
quarterback. I am leaning to the home
dog but have opted to invest on the
total instead.
“Movin’ on Down The Line”
• New England is 1–8 to the under in
their last nine road games.
• Quarterback Matt Moore/Team is
3–7 to the UNDER at home and
6–10 Under when the line is between
41 to 48.
• In the second half of the season the
Patriots are 7–20 to the UNDER
in road games vs. teams that are
penalized for 60+ yards per game.
• In the second half of the season the
Dolphins are 8–21 to the Under vs.
teams that allow 17 or less points
per game.
• The Patriots are 0–6 to the Under
after covering in road games after
covering the spread in six or seven
of their last eight games.
• The Dolphins are 9–21 to the Under
when off a road win vs. a division foe.
• In the second half of the season the
Dolphins are 14–37 to the UNDER
vs. excellent punt coverage teams
that allow 7.5 or less yards per return.
Last Week In Review
My selection on the Over in the Panthers
game lost as I had bet the over
early at 51 only to see the total bet
down to 48 on game day morning. So,
I lost with the over at 51 and I am now
4–5 here at Winfo. (I hope some of
you won at over 48 or 48.5 or perhaps
pushed at 49.) There was certainly
ample opportunity for it to sail over the
number, but, it was not to be!
All Systems Go, (The 24 Pack)
After scoring more than 24 points
in back-to-back games, (applies to
Miami,) play the Under when said
team is at home and hosting a foe that
scored 24 or more points in the first
half in their last game. This system
is 14–37 = 72.5% to the under since
1983 as well as 9–21 = 70% to the
Under the past decade.
Onto This Week’s Winfo
Selection
My Winfo selection for this week is a
play on the Patriots and Dolphins to
stay Under 44.5 points.
Good luck this week
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