WINFO Issue #17

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NFL ANALYSIS AND PICKS this weak Washington defense. We’re not playing this, but do lean to the underdog. Green Bay at Detroit Line: Packers -3.5 Over/Under: 48 Set-Up: The Packers have been as hot as any team in the league coming down the stretch, but leaving Ford Field with a win is not going to be an easy task. Getting Darius Slay back would be a huge boost for the Lion’s defense, but it’s not looking good. And a running game wouldn’t hurt either. Stafford will be on his own, but going against a Green Bay pass defense that got roughed up by Adam Theilen last week and Matt Barkley the week before, he should match Rodgers through the air. Hard to know how much playing time the Cowboys’ starters will be getting this week vs. the Eagles. We like getting the 3.5 points with the home dog who can play with this Packer team. Suggested Play: Take the Lions Jacksonville at Indianapolis Line: Colts -4.5 Over/Under: 47 Set-Up: Really like the way this Jaguar defense is rounding into one of the better units in the league, paced by Jalen Ramsey and Dante Fowler Jr., who are quickly becoming stars. They’ll be tested in this matchup, as Andrew Luck (who hasn’t been a part of the Colt’s problems this year) will chuck everything at them. Bortles has been better since Doug Marrone took over and he does get to face an awful Indy D, but we look for the Colts and Coach Pagano to finish up a disappointing season with a home win. Suggested Play: Take the Colts Dallas at Philadelphia Line: Eagles -4 Over/Under: 43.5 Set-Up: A mean-nothing game in which the “will Romo play or won’t he” storyline will dominate the build up. Coach Garrett has some real decisions to make and so far he hasn’t tipped his hand. Who will he rest and for how much of the game. The Eagles would obviously love to go out with a win over a bitter rival, even one not entirely focused on beating them, but with so much up in the air with the Cowboys lineup, this is tough to handicap. We lean to Dallas and the points. Chicago at Minnesota Line: Vikings -6 Over/Under: 41 Set-Up: Sure a few Minny players went rogue after last week’s loss and you’ll see some fallout in the off-season, but look for those who are willing to step-up for Mike Zimmer to play hard for their coach. Jobs are on the line with this team. They’ll play accordingly – especially the defense, who will have a productive day getting after Barkley and taking advantage of the bad decisions that result (i.e. plenty of picks). Suggested Play: **Take the Vikings** Best Bet Carolina at Tampa Bay Line: Bucs -4.5 Over/Under: 46.5 Set-Up: No way the Bucs make the playoffs, as the path to securing a spot is just way to difficult, but they’re going to play this one like they can. They’ll be without Doug Martin, which is actually a good thing, as the offense runs better this season when the Muscle Hamster is sidelined. Carolina are a proud group and will push back, but they’re running out of gas as the season comes to a close. Winston and Evans will take advantage of holes in a Panther D that have been there all year. We like a young Tampa Bay team playing with a lot of heart. Suggested Play: Take Tampa Bay Cleveland at Pittsburgh Line: Steelers -6 Over/Under: 43 Set-Up: Unlike the decision between keeping the momentum going or resting players that Jason Garrett is dealing with, Coach Tomlin landed firmly on the side of giving his stars a break. Big Ben, AB and Bell will all sit, as well as others will be given time on the bench. The Steelers have nothing to play for and the Browns, well, Cleveland won their game last week. Fact is the Pittsburgh backups will still be better than the Browns starters, but we’ll pass on this one with all the personnel moves leaving a lot of questions. 8
TOTALLY COVERED New Orleans at Atlanta Line: Falcons -6.5 Over/Under: 56 Set-Up: The Falcon defense is quietly (very quietly) becoming a more difficult unit to play against, giving this team the look of one that could go deep in the playoffs. The offense can keep pace with any in the NFC, including Drew Brees and the Saints. They’re balanced, with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman consistently giving them mouth-watering down and distance situations with their running, and Matt Ryan putting together an MVP-calibre season. The New Orleans defense are going to struggle. Atlanta needs this win to clinch a highly desirable bye week and we see them getting it. Suggested Play: Take Atlanta THE PACKERS HAVE BEEN AS HOT AS ANY TEAM IN THE LEAGUE COMING DOWN THE STRETCH, BUT LEAVING FORD FIELD WITH A WIN IS NOT GOING TO BE AN EASY TASK. that is good, but have issues with the vertical passing game. Jared Goff and the Ram offense will sputter and stall all afternoon. Suggested Play: Take the Cardinals that really are that bad. The Hawks are not heading into the post-season playing like a true Super Bowl contender, but this is an opponent that will help boost the confidence. Suggested Play: Take Seattle New England at Miami Line: Patriots -9.5 Over/Under: 45 Set-Up: The Patriots want to win this one to lock up home field in the AFC and win it they will. We expect to see a lot of play-action that has receivers open all day in the Miami secondary. Matt Moore simply won’t be able to keep pace. Suggested Play: Take the Patriots Arizona at Los Angeles Line: Cardinals -6 Over/Under: 41 Set-Up: Look for this to be the Larry Fitzgerald show. If you’re interested in a prop play, take a peek at the Over for total receiving yards for number 11. With this possibly being his last game, and the team having nothing meaningful to play for in terms of playoff positioning, Coach Arians is going to feed Larry the ball. And last week we saw the Cards push the ball downfield – expect to see more of that vs. an LA defense Kansas City at San Diego Line: Chiefs -5.5 Over/Under: 45 Set-Up: In what could be the last game for the Chargers in San Diego (and for coach Mike McCoy), they’ll face a Chiefs team that is better than them offensively, defensively and on special teams – and they really need to win. The division title and a bye are up in the air for KC so they’re not going to mess around. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill create big matchup issues for this Charger D, while the Rivers-led offense on the other side doesn’t bring anything to the table the visitor can’t handle. Suggested Play: Take the Chiefs Seattle at San Francisco Line: Seahawks -9.5 Over/Under: 43 Set-Up: Remember this while you’re watching the Seahawks –Niners game: Seattle are not this good. They only look like it vs. a 49er defense Oakland at Denver Line: Broncos -1 Over/Under: 40.5 Set-Up: Matt McGloin is going to struggle – this week and particularly in the weeks ahead. But with Paxton Lynch the likely pivot Denver will roll with, McGloin will be the better QB in this matchup. Playing behind a very good O-line that will be able to open up holes for the running game, they’ll have a gameplan that sets him up for success. We expect Khalil Mack and his band of brothers to be very disruptive to a Bronco offense that doesn’t have the ground game to set-up an effective passing game...and even if the ground game was to have some success, it wouldn’t be enough. Suggested Play: Take the Raiders Best Bet Record: 9-2 against the spread Season Record: 57-45-4 against the spread 9
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WINFO Issue #17

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