WINFO Issue #25

WINFOFeb. 24 - Mar. 2, 2017
Issue #25
MARCH
MADNESS TIPS
HOOPS PLAYS
SOCCER
PICKS
+
NHL HEATS UP
- HOCKEY PICKS

IN THE ISSUE
IN THE ISSUE
4
3 The Good, The Bad, The Ugly
4 Greg Dempson
5-6 Wine and Whining
7 Tee Time
8 5 Tips for Better Meetings
9-10 NHL Analysis and Picks
11 Futures Foray
12 Handicapping Talk
8
5
7
2

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY
BLOG PICKS AT 14-3 ATS
We’ve been on a nice run with
our Blog Picks on the site
since we launched, climbing to
14-3 ATS with the 17 we’ve highlighted.
Last week we posted two plays,
which both won.
Sometimes these are picks we
handicap that day, and a few times
they’ve been plays we’ve pulled from
the weekly Winfo issues that we’ve
particularly liked and wanted to make
sure everyone had a chance to see.
We should have a couple of Blog
Picks this week as well.
You can find them here - Winfo Picks
Blog Picks Record: 14-3 ATS
TSN Team1040 Blog Picks
And we serve up more blog picks
each week on our TSN Team1040
Blog Page. Last week we had a 2-0
day with our soccer picks, while this
week hasn’t started out as well, as we
dropped our play on the Draw (+225)
in the FC Porto v Juventus Champions
League match.
I Hope It Was A Damn Good Pie
Anybody up for a steak and potato
pie at the football match? Of course,
sounds positively marvelous.
What you might want to avoid though
is eating that pie during the game
if you happen to be a player in the
match and there is a betting line on
whether you’ll be seen eating a pie.
And if by chance that is a scenario you
find yourself in, you will also want to
steer clear of telling a bunch of your
mates that yes, indeed, you will be
shown on TV enjoying a pie, guaranteeing
them a profit.
The above is the exact opposite of
the approach Sutton United back-up
goalkeeper Wayne Shaw took.
The result is the rather rotund keeper
is no longer with his team after having
to resign for breaching betting rules
during his sides FA Cup tie against
Arsenal last weekend.
While innocent enough in theory,
c’mon what are you thinking.
All his buddies that were tipped off hit
the bookmakers who were offering the
“pie” betting option at 8-1.
Funny enough and Shaw does seem
like quite the character - more about
having a laugh and helping his mates,
rather than trying to upset the integrity
of the game with a nefarious fix.
March Madness Betting Tips
Sitting on a heated Yaletown patio
with long-time Winner’s Edge
contributor Jason Holliday enjoying
a beer and the conversation turned
to college basketball. Jason is an
exceptional handicapper in a few
sports, but the NFL and college basketball
are the two areas he focuses
most of his attention (Jason hit over
62% NFL winners with over 70 picks
in print for us).
I asked if Jason would do a few
March Madness handicapping tips
articles for us as we head toward the
big tournament.
You can read his first one in this
issue – with Jason highlighting two of
the key stats that he looks at to start
his handicapping process when the
bracket has been set.
He’ll be back next week with another
couple of tips.
Enjoy this week’s issue and best of
luck with all your plays!
ANYBODY UP FOR A STEAK AND POTATO PIE
AT THE FOOTBALL MATCH? OF COURSE,
SOUNDS POSITIVELY MARVELOUS.
3

GREG DEMPSON
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
AT INDIANA PACERS
by Greg Dempson
- Indiana is 7-3 ATS at home when
facing foes with a straight up winning
record.
- Memphis is 11-22 ATS when away
from home and playing a team with
a straight up winning record.
- The Pacers are 28-15 ATS when
off a home loss.
The ball tips at 7:00 ET as the
Pacers host the Grizzlies at
Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis
This is the first game back
for each team since the All-Star break
and despite all the trade rumors, Paul
George is staying put.
Memphis has won three of their
last five as well as five out of their
last seven on the road. Chandler
Parsons, who signed a four year $94
million dollar contract, is averaging
6.5 PPG with limited playing time.
The Pacers exit the All-Star game
having lost six in a row including lack
luster home contests vs. Oklahoma,
Cleveland, Milwaukee, San Antonio
and Washington. Even though they
are mired in a slump I still make them
a 2.5-point favorite and as of this
report the line is pick ‘em.
Winning Angles
- The Pacers are 10-2 ATS at home
this season when the total is between
200 to 209.5.
- Memphis is on a 1-5 ATS losing
streak vs. Eastern Conference
opponents.
- Indiana is 16-5 ATS at home when
off a double-digit defeat.
- The host team has covered seven
of the last 10 in this series.
- The Pacers are 26-11 ATS when
playing four or less games in 10
days.
- The Grizzlies are 3-16 ATS when
on the road and playing a team
that’s winning between 51% to 60%
of their games.
All Systems Go
Play on all home teams when the
line is + or -3 points when off a
home loss and playing three or less
games in 10 days. This system is
72-35 = 67% ATS when backing the
Pacers since 1997.
This Week’s Selection
I’m backing the Pacers tonight at
pick ‘em.
Winfo Record in Review
My over selection on the Cal Golden
Bears/Stanford Cardinal was a
winner. My Ivy league selection on
Brown was indeed poison so I went
1-1 ATS last week. My overall hoops
record is 2-1-1 ATS
4

WINE AND WHINING
WINE &WHINING
The whining component will be kept to
a minimum in this week’s column as I
went two for three for the second consecutive
week with my soccer picks, putting
the season record at 4-2. The FA Cup recommendation
was only for half unit plays so
we are now up 2.27 units year to date.
Leicester’s freefall continues as they lost as
road favorites in Millwall. Relegation seems
inevitable to me as they are only one point
above the drop zone and still yet to score in
league play this calendar year. I don’t want
to step on the Futures Foray toes at the end
of every issue, but indulge me with a Leicester
to be relegated play at +175. The player
revolt has failed, as ownership is backing
Ranieri into relegation.
by Neil Alexander
5

WINE AND WHINING
WHY ELSE WOULD
ONE BE INTERESTED
IN A PALACE V
MIDDLESBROUGH
MATCH AT THIS
POINT IN THE
SEASON IF IT
WASN’T FOR THE
RELEGATION BATTLE
This full-bodied
wine has a long,
rich and creamy
finish.
The three teamer cashed with Chelsea,
Man U and Arsenal all taking
care of FA business on the road.
Parlays are bets that I rarely make,
in this instance merely as a vehicle
to keep interest in some otherwise
lopsided affairs. In hindsight, I
should have added Tottenham to
the ticket, which would have had the
dual benefit of enhanced odds with a
four-teamer, and preventing my only
loss – backing them to draw at Fulham.
This one never stood a chance
as Harry Kane sniped the hat trick
and Spurs advance.
The Wine
Montes Alpha, 2014 Chardonnay;
Casablanca Valley, Chile - $20
In very non-technical terms, Montes
throws the book at this wine.
The wine is fermented and aged in
French oak barrels for one year, and
40% of the wine undergoes malolactic
fermentation. This secondary fermentation
converts the tart malic acid
naturally present in the grape must
to the softer-tasting lactic acid, which
ultimately enhances the buttery and
creamy flavor of a wine.
Tropical aromas of banana and pineapple
dominate the nose. On the palate,
there are further tropical flavors
of passion fruit and mango, combined
with toffee and delicious notes
of apple pie. This full-bodied wine
has a long, rich and creamy finish.
It’s big enough to pair with creamy
chicken or spicy seafood dishes.
The Picks
Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough
One of my favorite things about
soccer is the inherent built-in mechanism
to keep teams fighting until
the end of the season. Chelsea will
win the Premiership this year, there
is little doubt in my mind. And there
are a handful of other teams battling
for a Champions or Europa League
spot for next year. There are about
10 other teams in the middle of the
table that are meh, followed by a
handful playing for their football lives
(except Leicester who has given up
as already established). Why else
would one be interested in a Palace
v Middlesbrough match at this point
in the season if it wasn’t for the relegation
battle. Palace is currently in
the drop zone, but only three points
behind visiting Middlesbrough so
this qualifies as a pretty important
match. Middlesbrough is in decent
form with three draws and two losses
(to Tottenham and West Ham)
in their last five, including a credible
0-0 draw while hosting Everton in
their last game. Both teams are hungry
for a result to boost their prospects
of survival. Given this tension,
I’m backing the draw +225.
Hull v Burnley
Burnley is six places ahead of Hull
City in the standings. However,
when considering the home/road
splits it is difficult to bet against Hull.
Burnley has played 11 games away
from home this season and has a
single point to show for their efforts.
Conversely, Hull has a reasonable
home record with 4 wins, 3 draws,
and 5 losses. Burnley’s only road
point came October 29 against Man
U in a scoreless draw. I’m backing
Hull +120.
Tottenham v Stoke
The Spurs are the only EPL team
yet to lose a home game this season
with 10 wins and two draws. Add to
this eight home clean sheets, while
only conceding five goals in total!
That said, they only have one win
in their last four EPL matches and
a disappointing loss against Gent
in Europa League last week. They
will right the ship at home this week
against Stoke.
Back the Spurs -277.
Enjoy the games and good luck with
your bets!
6

TEE TIME
MASTERS’ ODDS – DJ JUMPS,
SPIETH STILL FAVORED
You knew it was coming.
After topping the field in impressive
fashion at the Genesis Open last
week, Dustin Johnson jumped over
Jason Day and Rory McIlroy to
cuddle up next to Jordan Spieth as
favorites to win the Masters.
In Jeff Sherman’s latest odds update,
DJ went from 12-1 to 8-1, settling in
as the #2 favorite behind Spieth who
sits at 13-2 (6.5 to 1).
Jason Day and Rory both slipped
back from 10-1 to 12-1 odds to win it
all. They’re joined by Hideki Matsuyama,
who is also currently 12-1.
If you’re looking to see the market
fluctuation for Tiger, he’s dropped
from 50-1 a couple of weeks ago
to settle in with the likes of Rafael
Cabrera Bello, Russell Knox, Tyrrell
Hatton and Ryan Moore at 100-1.
Here’s a look at the top of Jeff’s board
for this year’s first Major .
The Masters
Augusta National Golf Club - Augusta,
Georgia
April 6 - 9, 2017
IN JEFF SHERMAN’S LATEST ODDS UPDATE,
DJ WENT FROM 12-1 TO 8-1, SETTLING
IN AS THE #2 FAVORITE BEHIND SPIETH
WHO SITS AT 13-2 (6.5 TO 1).
ODDS to Win:
Jason Day 12/1
Jordan Spieth 13/2
Rory McIlroy 12/1
Dustin Johnson 8/1
Bubba Watson 25/1
Adam Scott 25/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Rickie Fowler 30/1
Justin Rose 15/1
Phil Mickelson 30/1
Hideki Matsuyama 12/1
Branden Grace 60/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Danny Willett 60/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Patrick Reed 30/1
Sergio Garcia 30/1
Zach Johnson 60/1
Tiger Woods 100/1
Charl Schwartzel 80/1
Paul Casey 50/1
Matt Kuchar 50/1
Jim Furyk 100/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Bryson DeChambeau 200/1
Jon Rahm 40/1
Lee Westwood 100/1
J.B. Holmes 100/1
Justin Thomas 25/1
(current as of February 24, 2017)
Odds provided by Jeff Sherman
oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas
SuperBook and one of the world’s
foremost authorities on golf odds. Stop
by to check out Jeff’s Twitter feed at
twitter.com/golfodds and his website at
www.golfodds.com
7

VANCOUVER THEATRESPORTS
"Sponsored Content"
5 TIPS FOR BETTER MEETINGS
techniques, such as appropriate eye
contact and using affirmatives and
nodding, which encourages speakers
to continue and forces listeners to be
fully present in the conversation.
Meetings can be a drag – but they
don’t have to be.
For a lot of us, meetings are a part of
everyday life. The Improv for Business division
at Vancouver TheatreSports have
been helping organizations of all sizes to
transform meetings into super-charged
brainstorming sessions, increasing the
return on the time invested.
They do so through their unique improv-based
approach – an approach
they’ve pioneered and perfected over
the two decades they’ve been working
with organizations across Canada.
Here are 5 quick tips from Ken Lawson,
the lead facilitator for the Improv
for Business Division at Vancouver
TheatreSports, that you can apply to
jump-start creativity and collaboration
in your next meeting.
Tip #1 “Yes, And”
The foundation for a creative and
collaborative meeting is trust; each
attendee should know that they
can contribute ideas freely, without
judgment or obstacles being placed
in their way by colleagues. As a team,
committing to the principle of “Yes,
And”, the core tenet that improvisation
is based on, produces an environment
where all ideas are accepted, supported
and given a chance.
Tip #2 Active Listening
Try this at the start of your next strategy
meeting. It’s an activity we call “Listen
Better, Listen Worse”, highlighting
the importance of being engaged
when listening to other speak.
To facilitate the exercise, start by
having one person speak to the
group on a tic their passionate about
(the Canucks, running, travel, etc.).
Instruct the group who are listening to
really engage, listening intently. After
a minute or so, instruct the group to
“listen worse,” or disengage. They
can change to more passive body
language, start checking their phones,
looking around the room, shuffling
their feet or walking away. Ask the
speaker how they felt when the group
was engaged, and how they felt when
the group disengaged.
The listeners then learn active listening
Tip #3 Get Rid of the Gadgets
Pretty straight forward. The Improv
Mindset is all about being fully present.
A group of meeting attendees all checking
their phones at various times blocks
that. Leave the phones at your desk.
Tip #4 Take a Breather
Effective two-way communication during
a meeting requires moments of silence.
Pause for a second before you reply to
a question. It allows you to absorb what
was said (active listening) and to organize
your thoughts, resulting in clearer and
more confident responses.
Tip #5 It’s About The Team
Great improv is about teamwork and
making your fellow cast mates look
good. Meetings can be so much more
effective when attendees aren’t overly
protective of their own ideas. The
Improv Mindset is about being open
to change and allowing your ideas to
evolve based on the contributions of
others. Clinging to your own contribution
prevents you from recognizing
other ideas from the group that might
better solve the problem.
If everyone focuses on the “glory of
the group”, understanding it’s not
about having the best idea, but about
collaborating to discover the best idea
and solutions.
Learn more about The Improv Mindset
and how Vancouver TheatreSports
can help your organization with our
Improv for Business workshops.
If you’re interested in receiving an
information pack please email Jeff at
development@vtsl.com.
8

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS
HABS – LEAFS
HIGHLIGHT THE WEEK
“Trade-week” has always been an
interesting time to handicap the
games with our publication deadlines
and breaking down matchups
that will take place three, four or five
days later. It’s obviously impossible
to factor in any significant moves that
happen after publishing - the impact
on a team, both on the ice and in the
dressing room.
With that in mind, if we have a major
shift on one of the games this week,
we’ll post it on the Blog at Winfolive.
com. Otherwise it will stand as a
game we’re playing.
Saturday, February 25th
Washington Capitals at
Nashville Predators
The Predators have battled their
way into the playoff race after a lot of
mediocre hockey through the first half
of the season. They’re creating quality
scoring chances on a consistent
basis, with the line of Filip Forsberg,
Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson
emerging as a matchup problem. On
the back end, PK Subban has found
his footing, putting together a stretch
of games here that is amongst the top
of any D-man in the league, making
plays at both ends of the rink, but
particularly having an impact helping
drive offense from the back.
They matchup pretty nicely with the
Capitals. We’ll get a good number on
a home team that is on the upswing
and can play with the Caps top six.
Take Nashville
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto
Maple Leafs
Montreal are still a team that continues
to struggle offensively (20 goals in
their last 12 games). They do appear
to have Carey Price rounding back
into form, which takes some pressure
off the offense, but the key word is
“some” not all. He can give this team
a chance to win, even with no pop
upfront, but they have to start finding
goals from other players not named
Pacioretty and Radulov.
Looking for where new coach Claude
Julien has made an immediate
difference? Check the penalty kill.
Montreal had issues when down a
man, ranking in the bottom third of the
league before the coaching change.
Watch for them to start to climb to a
much more respectable spot. Julien’s
aggressive style served the Bruins
well and will do the same here. In the
three games he’s been behind the
Habs’ bench they’ve already been
9

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS
LOOKING FOR WHERE NEW COACH CLAUDE
JULIEN HAS MADE AN IMMEDIATE DIFFERENCE?
CHECK THE PENALTY KILL.
better, killing off nine straight and
looking good doing it.
Like Montreal, Toronto are coming
into this one off a Thursday loss.
The Leafs were beat in overtime by
the Rangers and the good news that
came from that game was the play of
goalie Fredrik Andersen. Andersen
has been struggling since the New
Year, but he looked great vs. the
Blueshirts, making up for some weak
defensive play. Fact is the Maple Leaf
defense has been bad for a while.
This could be just what the doctor ordered
for this Montreal offense. They
should be able to create some scoring
chances.
We like Carey Price to shine and the
Canadiens to take advantage of the
leaky Leaf D and give him a bit of
support.
We’ll take Montreal.
NY Islanders at Columbus Blue
Jackets
The Islanders have put together a nice
three-game winning streak heading
into this tilt, but we think the Blue Jackets
can slow their roll a little – and do it
in regulation at a very attractive price.
Now we are playing with a bit of fire
here as Columbus are coming off
their bye week and so far this year,
the first game back for these bye
week teams has not been overly
impressive. But we’ll go against the
trend. The Jackets lost their last game
before the break and this team has
been good about bouncing back
with wins all year. Yes, the five days
in-between games is a little different
situation that getting back out on the
ice two days after a loss, but even if
they do have a bit of a slow start, they
enjoy some clear matchup advantages
that should help them rise above
by the end of the third period.
We will play the home team laying
the half goal, taking away the juice
and needing them to win in regulation
time.
Play Columbus to win in regulation
Sunday, February 26th
Edmonton Oilers at Nashville
Predators
We like the set-up for a play on the
Oilers in this one if, and only if, they
lost to the Capitals on Friday night.
If this young Oiler team goes into
Washington and pulls off the upset,
we’ll be staying away from in this
matchup. But if they lose, we’ll back a
road underdog with a very good shot
at the upset. The Oilers can play with
Nashville.
Take the Oilers if it sets up.
Tuesday, February 28th
Detroit Red Wings at
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks have been a good
home team most of the season,
particularly when playing this level of
opponent. Now Vancouver very well
could be stepping on to the ice without
Alex Burrows and Jannik Hansen,
who have left in trade deals, but they
should still beat this Red Wing lineup.
We like the home side at an attractive
price.
Take Vancouver
Last Week’s Record: +0.80 Units
Season Record: +4.05 Units
10

FUTURES FORAY
COLLEGE HOCKEY FUTURES
With about three quarters of the
NHL regular season in the
books, it is about this time
when we get a handle on teams’ prospects
for the postseason. The trade
deadline closes this Wednesday and
it presents an opportunity to possibly
get an advantage on a futures bet.
This week we’ll take a look at the
Atlantic Conference. The usual caveats
apply. These are needle in the
haystack bets so bet accordingly, and
shop around for the best price.
THE HABS AND SENS
ARE PRETTY MUCH A
COIN TOSS TO WIN
THE DIVISION.
Favorite
Currently Montreal is clinging to top
stop but they have played a game
or two more than the competition
chasing them. Their schedule is reasonably
favorable with only two road
trips remaining – a 4-gamer in early
March that takes them out west, and a
three-gamer in April to Florida for two
games and a stop in Buffalo before
heading back to la Belle Province.
However, their recent form doesn’t
instill much confidence in their fans.
As in most years, it will come down
to goaltending. Unfortunately for the
Habs’ faithful, Price hasn’t been at his
best. Odds range from -150 to -175.
Contender
Although Ottawa has games in hand
on the Habs, their schedule frankly
isn’t great. The Sens are currently
in the midst of a 4-game road trip
and then have two more roadies in
March – a three and five gamer, with
a couple more one and two-gamers
interspersed. The good news for
the Sens is that they are playing
much better than the Habs and have
closed the gap considerably during
the past month or so. Odds range
from +340 to +400.
Pretenders
Toronto, Florida, and Boston. The
probability of any of these teams
winning the division is slim, single
digit slim, i.e. less than 10% in our
view. They are paying anywhere from
+700 to +900 but we think you would
get more joy spending your money
elsewhere.
Recommendation
We give the Habs and Sens each about
a 40% chance of winning the division.
It’s pretty much a coin toss in our
estimation. With this assumption, we
suggest taking Ottawa at 3 or 4:1 rather
than laying the juice with the Habs.
11

HANDICAPPING TALK
MARCH MADNESS BETTING TIPS
by Jason Holliday
The sheer number of games
packed into a 48-hour window
makes it the best two days of
wagering fun all year. March Madness
is a wild ride, but the opening round
on Thursday and Friday is the real
“Madness” – I love it.
Thirty-two games spread over two
days, serving up virtually unlimited
betting options...it can be a little overwhelming
if you’re not prepared.
Over the next few weeks as we head
to the Big Dance, I’m going to go
through a few strategies and tips that
I’ve always paid attention to when
prepping for another March battle with
the books.
Let’s start with two that have served
me well.
1. Defense and Rebounds
Invariably, when you talk defense
most people will hone in first (and usually
only) on opposition scoring. And
this would be a mistake. That ranking,
without some context, really isn’t all
that meaningful.
There are a number of factors that
go into scoring defense numbers,
including the type of game a team
plays (e.g. slow-tempo vs. fast tempo),
competition and on and on.
So when I’m handicapping the matchups
one of the first stats I look at is defensive
field goal percentage. How good
is a team at making opponents miss.
This will give you a better idea of the
type of defensive team you’re dealing
with. Do they take away quality looks,
force opponents into tough shots, make
the third or fourth option put the ball up,
get blocks - basically what are they doing
to create empty possessions when
an opponent comes down the floor.
So poke around those numbers and
be sure to check out the adjusted
defensive efficiency for teams (points
allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted
for opponent). This is a great
starting point.
Ken Pomeroy has a great site to
check these numbers out - Adjusted
Defensive Efficiency
And then you want to combine that with
rebounding numbers. Do they have an
impressive rebounding margin?
Teams that show well in these two
areas have the foundation to be money-makers
during the tournament. I
always go looking for lower ranked underdogs
that stack up well in these two
areas compared to their opponents.
12
HOW MANY
TIMES HAVE
YOU NEEDED
A TEAM TO
HIT A FEW
FREE THROWS
DOWN THE
STRETCH TO
COVER THE
NUMBER FOR
YOU? YEAH,
ME TOO.
2. Free Throws
How many times have you needed a
team to hit a few free throws down the
stretch to cover the number for you?
Yeah, me too.
Making free throws often equals covering
spreads.
I like to look for teams that get to the
line more than their opponents and just
as importantly, once they get there,
knock them down.
Getting to the stripe more than the
competition is a result of being a hard
working defensive team and an aggressive
team on the offensive side.
There is comfort in backing a team that
has proven they can sink the freebies.
Alright, that should get us started. I’ll have
more tips next week as the calendar
turns and the excitement starts to build.