WINFO Issue #30

WINFOMar.
31 - Apr. 6, 2017
Issue #30
SOCCER TIPS
AND PICKS
GREG DEMPSON
NHL PLAYS
FINAL FOUR PICKS

IN THE ISSUE
IN THE ISSUE
10
3 The Good, The Bad, The Ugly
4 Greg Dempson
5-6 Wine and Whining
7 Kyle’s Picks
8 Improv for Business
9 NHL Analysis and Picks
10 Futures Foray
11 Tea time
7
5
11
2

THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY
THE GOOD, THE BAD
AND THE UGLY
As we crown another
NCAA Champi-
WINFO
We’re
on, it becomes nap
time for us. As we
did with Winner’s
Mar. 31 - Apr. 6, 2017
Issue #30
Edge over the
years, we go on a brief hiatus
from April to mid-summer,
launching the weekly publishing
schedule again when the
NFL starts back up with their
pre-season schedule.
SOCCER TIPS
AND PICKS
GREG DEMPSON
+NHL PLAYS
Obviously, the sports world
isn’t in “hiatus” mode. Quite
the opposite actually. I love
this time of the year. Not
as much as the Fall, but
with the Masters teeing off
(check out Jeff Sherman’s
updated Masters’ Odds on
page 11), the loooooooong
grind known as the MLB
season in the starting
FINAL FOUR PICKS
blocks, NHL playoff time, NBA playoffs, kick-off for the CFL...there is a lot
of daily activity happening for the sports gaming enthusiast.
But still, the drop-off in interest is enough, that it works as a window to
take a bit of a break. And we don’t really hide from the fact we are a football
first publication (NFL as the priority and then college).
Here on these pages for the upcoming NFL and college football season
you’ll see the same coverage as last year, plus we’ll be adding more college
coverage and two more columnists. One Winner’s Edge readers will
be very familiar with and one is new to us, but someone we’ve had our
eye on for a couple of years.
looking to build on what was a
solid NFL campaign with our magazine
picks, including going 10-2 ATS
with our Best Bets, 57% with our
overall NFL game-by-game analysis
and a 12-3 ATS record with all of
our playoff picks (still can’t get over
the fact that record isn’t 13-2 ATS,
as the bad taste from being on the
Falcons in the Super Bowl continues
to linger – run the freakin ball and hit
a chip shot FG dammit!)...I digress.
Be sure to check out Winfo.com for
weekly articles and picks with NHL
playoffs, NBA and baseball picks.
Greg Dempson will be contributing
plays here and there as well.
This Week
As you’d expect, we have a breakdown
on the Final Four games in
Greg and Kyle’s columns. Kyle has
a pick from each Final Four game,
while Greg has a total play from the
South Carolina –Gonzaga matchup.
We also have soccer from Neil, NHL
plays as usual, Futures betting and
updated odds and tips for betting on
the Masters next week.
Have a great few months and we’ll
see you over at the site and back
here with the weekly firing up again
the for the Hall-of-Fame game.
3

GREG DEMPSON
by Greg Dempson
TOTAL PLAY - GONZAGA BULLDOGS VS.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
This is a unique match-up as both
teams are making their first Final
Four appearance in school history.
For almost 25 years I lived in the great
white north, (Edmonton, Alberta).
Back in the day the Edmonton cable
feed came from Spokane, Washington
which gave me many opportunities
to watch the Gonzaga Bulldogs
long before they became a “fashionable”
team to follow. To be sure,
they do play in a lesser or second tier
conference while the Gamecocks play
in the mighty SEC.
To many, including myself, this line
might appear a bit on the high side
at -6.5. Having said that, how many
of you reading this were duped into
backing the Xavier Musketeers as
+8.5 dogs in Gonzaga’s last game?
The Bulldogs crushed the Musketeers,
(83-59.). That said, I am still
not comfortable laying the points, so
I looked at the first half over/under
instead.
South Carolina has been able to come
out of the locker room after the first
half and “batten down the hatches!”
Thus they’ve steam rolled the likes of
Florida, Baylor, Duke, Marquette and
Alabama in their previous neutral site
contests. Their scoring has been limited
in the first half in those five contests
as they averaged only 32.8 PPG
in the first half while allowing 31.9
points. In the second half, in those five
contests they averaged approximately
one-third more on the scoreboard
tallying 45.4 while holding those previous
five opponents to an average of
36.6 points per second half.
This 2016/2017 edition of Gonzaga
is by far the best defensive team I’ve
watched, and as stated, I have been
following the Bulldogs since they were
little pups! When reviewing their past
five neutral site tournament games
I note the Bulldogs are scoring an
average of 36.4 while allowing an
average of 25.8 first half points for a
positive net average of 10.6 first half
points. That margin is significantly
higher than the +0.9 average noted by
the Gamecocks.
Doing the Math
When factoring recent performances
by each team we have a combined
total of 62.2 for and against points for
Gonzaga vs. an average combined total
of 63.45 for South Carolina. When
adding those two totals the number
becomes 125.65, and dividing by two
gives us a total of 62.825. Looking
at the total in the first half the most
common number is 64.5 with the
Bulldogs at -3.5 @ -115 at one of the
outs I have.
Is the Glass Half-Full or Half-
Empty System?
When a team from a major Division
1-A Conference plays a foe from a
second tier conference playing with
five or six days of rest, play the first
half under the total when the Over/Under
is between 60.5 to 65.5 points. By
backing the under in this first half the
success of this system is 14-32 = 70%
to the UNDER the past five seasons.
The average first half score in this
system is 59.9 points.
In Review
Last week’s selection lost and I am
4-3-2 with my basketball selections
here at Winfo and 1-0 ATS with my
lone Blog offering.
Final Four Play
This is what I call a “beer and pizza”
bet, as it will be a recreational type of
a play only for me, but I am on Gonzaga/South
Carolina to stay under the
first half total of 64.5 points
Good luck with all your plays!
4

WINE AND WHINING
WINE &WHINING
by Neil Alexander
It must have been the Tuscan wine that
clouded my judgment last week. What
was I thinking with half unit bets during
the World Cup qualifying matches? After
going 3-0, I should have instead placed twounit
bets! Like everything else in life, it’s so
easy in hindsight, isn’t it?
I backed the draw in both the Ireland v
Wales and Romania v Denmark matches,
and low and behold, two 0-0 draws at +200.
I then repeated my crazy FA Cup parlay, by
backing heavy favorites, however this time it
was a four teamer — Turkey, Austria, Italy,
and Spain and wouldn’t you know it, all four
come through at +124.
After sweeping the card, the column record
now stands at 12-9 and finally out of the red,
up 1 unit overall! Huzzah!!
5

WINE AND WHINING
AFTER A SLUGGISH START, THE
COLUMN SOCCER PICKS ARE 12-9
AND IN THE BLACK!
Chateau St. Jean was at the
forefront of separating wines
from specific vineyards to
capture their unique character.
The Wine
2015 Chateau St Jean Chardonnay
Sonoma, $19
This has been a favorite of mine over
the years. It’s mass-produced but with
consistent quality year over year for
the price.
On the nose, there are aromas of toffee,
apple, and vanilla. On the palate,
it is rich and full-bodied with notes
of apple pie, pineapple, melon, and
hazelnut. The medium acidity is balanced
with the 13.6% alcohol and rich
fruit flavors. The medium finish offers
a bit of spice from the oak barrels.
This is on the higher end of the oak
spectrum, so if unoaked chardonnay
or aromatic whites are your preference
look elsewhere. This is meant for
the “no-wood, no-good” advocates.
The Picks
The England Premier League is back
this weekend and I’ve got another
three picks locked and loaded.
Watford v Sunderland
It is the battle between #14 and #20
in the table. Dead last Sunderland
is bound for relegation, and I don’t
see them securing any points in this
away fixture. The Black Cats have
played 13 road games this season
and have earned points in only three
of them. I don’t see much changing
this weekend. Take Watford -125.
Manchester United v West Bromwich
Albion
Man U has conceded more than two
goals only three times this season,
and only once at the friendly confines
of home. Turning to WBA,
they have scored two or more away
goals only three times this season,
and have only conceded two or
more away goals only four times. I’m
confident in the Man U win, however,
I don’t want to lay the -334 for the
privilege. I think Manchester wins
but all trends point to the under, so
I’m backing Under 2.5 +100.
Arsenal v Manchester City
The Gunners are in uncharted waters
with their season crumbling down all
around them. They are currently in
6th, and it is unlikely that a couple
of their stars re-sign contract extensions.
Their beleaguered manager,
Arsene Wenger is rumored to be
coming back for two more years. The
polarized Gooners are restless and
are chartering biplanes with contradicting
messages for their manager
to stay and also to go. City is in fantastic
form with three wins and two
draws in their past five. I look for City
to hammer another nail in the Gunners’
coffin. Take Man City +125.
6

KYLE’S PICKS
TAR HEELS ROLL!
by Kyle Clifton
The Final Four is all set! We have
had an up and down betting tournament
so far, but no fear, as we
look at booking a 2-0 Final Four!
South Carolina vs. Gonzaga
In the first matchup, the Cinderella’s
of the tourney, South Carolina, take
on the #1 seed of the West Region,
Gonzaga. Many had the Gamecocks
losing in their opening round match
against Marquette, but South Carolina
had other ideas as they’ve knocked
off not only Marquette but Duke,
Baylor and Florida to reach Glendale,
Arizona. Gonzaga has finally reached
the Final Four, albeit never playing an
opponent higher than a 4 seed this
tournament.
South Carolina comes into this game
as quite big underdogs; it currently
sits at Gonzaga -6.5. If the line stays
there, this would be the 4th biggest
spread against South Carolina all
year. South Carolina is 4-0 against the
spread in this tournament, while Gonzaga
is just 1-2-1 against the spread
in the tournament. Being the most talented
Gonzaga team Mark Few has
had, I still think the Gamecocks have
the best player on the court, Sindarius
Thornwell. Thornwell is averaging
nearly 26 points per game in the tournament,
along with 7.5 rebounds and
2.25 steals per game.
South Carolina hasn’t pulled off these
upsets by buzzer beaters either; they
are winning by over 13 points per
game in the tournament. They have
a better defense than Gonzaga, and
the best player on the court. March
Madness is all about being hot at the
right time, give me South Carolina. I
think they have a very good chance
of winning this game, but the spread
makes this an easy decision.
Kyle’s Pick: South Carolina +6.5
Oregon Ducks vs. North Carolina
Tar Heels
In the final matchup of the Final Four,
the North Carolina Tar Heels take
on the Oregon Ducks. I was a huge
fan of this Oregon team all season,
multiple times blogging about how
they are a Final Four team, but I’ll
admit I took at least one foot off the
bandwagon when they lost Chris
Boucher late in the season. Despite
my pessimism and thinking they had
no chance to beat Kansas, the Ducks
now find themselves one game from
the Championship.
North Carolina was one of the favorites
coming into the tournament,
and they haven’t disappointed. They
did almost lose to Arkansas in the
second round, but they have bounced
back to destroy Butler in the Sweet 16
and beat a really talented Kentucky
team in the Elite 8.
Oregon is just 3-3 against the spread
in the last 6 games, while UNC is not
much better at 2-2-2 in their last 6
games against the spread. Oregon
has only been going 6 players deep for
the most part this tournament, while
North Carolina goes at least 7 deep.
Too be honest, I think the National
Championship was played in the
evening last Sunday when North
Carolina played Kentucky. UNC
survived that matchup, and I think this
current Oregon team is a solid step
down from Kentucky. With the spread
at just -4.5, I think North Carolina will
comfortably cover this and then win
the National Title on Monday Night.
Kyle’s Pick: North Carolina -4.5
Season Record: 7-6 ATS
Aside from being a diehard fan of the
Indiana Pacers, Chicago Cubs, Duke
Blue Devils, Green Bay Packers and
FC Dallas – Kyle is also a college
basketball handicapper with a proven
record of success. You can get more
of Kyle’s picks daily by following him
on Twitter @KyleCliffy and checking
out his blog http://kylecliftonsports.
weebly.com/
7

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presentations I have seen. I think it brought remarkably
useful tools and perspectives to the entire team, and in
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8

NHL GAME PICKS AND ANALYSIS
SENS GET ROAD WIN
IN MANITOBA
Friday, March 31st
San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames
The Flames catch a tired Sharks team that
they should be able to lean on. Look for Calgary
to start winning more battles as the game
wears on, finding a little more time and space
than the Sharks, resulting in higher quality
scoring chances.
Take the Flames
Saturday, April 1st
Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red
Wings
Good set-up for the Leafs in this spot. Don’t
love playing on Toronto as you usually have to
pay a little extra due to them having a fan base
that loves to back them, but with the Red Wings
playing four games in the last seven days and
Toronto enjoying the edge with the top two line
matchups, we’ll put a unit on the visitor.
Take the Leafs
Ottawa Senators at Winnipeg Jets
We’ll be on the Senators as a small road
underdog in this matchup. Going though the
matchups and the way this game sets up, we
give the edge to a motivated visitor who will be
looking to bounce back from getting spanked
by the Wild in their last start.
We’ll take Ottawa.
Sunday, April 2nd
Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames
We don’t see the Ducks getting the sweep in
Alberta. We’ll be playing on the Flames if Anaheim
pulls off a win in Edmonton. If they lose
vs. the Oilers, we’ll pass here.
LAST WEEK’S RECORD:
-3.12 UNITS
(bad week)
SEASON RECORD:
+3.32 UNITS
9

FUTURES FORAY
MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL FUTURES
As I write this, and peak through the window
to the dreary outdoors, it’s difficult to
imagine that the MLB regular season starts
Sunday. This is largely due to the months of
crap weather, as the calendar hasn’t yet realized
that winter is done and spring has arrived.
The onset of spring brings to mind the start
of the MLB season. So there is no better time
than now to get in on a baseball futures bet.
We’ve tossed around a few options in the office,
but the consensus favorite given the return
on investment, is, wait for it . . . Houston. Yes,
the Astros!
Sure you’ve got the public darlings of late –
Cubs, Red Sox, and Dodgers but the payoff
isn’t worth the uncertainty of what can happen
during a grueling six-month season.
Here’s our rationale for the Astros. They kept
their powerful hitting triumvirate of Altuve, Correa,
and Springer together. However, they went
out and added some underrated players in our
opinion. Guys who have shown a propensity to
get on base like Aoki, Reddick, and McCann,
arguably the best hitter at his position. And
don’t forget about Carlos Beltran. This mix
should dramatically increase their run output
this season.
Their fierce, and possibly league best, bullpen
remains intact. Yes, their starting pitching is
a concern, but this is also a common thread
throughout the remainder of the league.
Now here’s the best part. You can get them
from anywhere from 10-1 to as high as 14-1.
We’re not betting the farm on them, but they
are ridiculous value at the price.
At 14-1, the
Astros will have
us jumping for joy
in October!
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED RUN SUPPORT WITH A SHUT-
DOWN BULLPEN MAKE THE ASTROS OUR PICK.
10

TEA TIME
MASTERS ODDS AND PICKS
by Mike Quinn
It’s not the crack of the bat for me.
No, for me, it’s watching that first
drive at Augusta that signals spring
has finally sprung.
And that opening round is less than a
week away.
Let’s have a look at the most updated
odds, courtesy Jeff Sherman from
GolfOdds.com (and the Las Vegas
Westgate Sportsbook).
DJ heads the field as the favorite,
with odds to win it all at 11-2. He’s
followed closely by Rory McIlroy
sitting at 15-2 and Jordan Spieth with
7-1 odds. Jason Day slots in at number
four (15-1) just a head of a pair
of veterans at 20-1: Justin Rose and
Phil Mickelson. Hideki Matsuyama
shows up here. Jon Rahm has been
steadily climbing the odds board,
joining the group at 20-1.
A couple of players I’m looking to play
on in head-to-head matchups this
week are:
• Justin Thomas: no reason the
impressive start to the season can’t
continue here. I’ll be looking to play
on Thomas in matchups he’s an
underdog or very small favorite.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick: booked a Top
10 finish here last year and I really
like the “under the radar” feel with
Fitzpatrick. He can definitely be a contender
come Sunday, which makes
him attractive in his matchups.
The Masters Odds
Augusta National Golf Club - Augusta,
Georgia
April 6 - 9, 2017
ODDS to Win:
Jason Day 15/1
Jordan Spieth 7/1
Rory McIlroy 15/2
Dustin Johnson 11/2
Bubba Watson 30/1
Adam Scott 30/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Rickie Fowler 25/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Phil Mickelson 20/1
Hideki Matsuyama 20/1
Branden Grace 80/1
Brooks Koepka 60/1
Danny Willett 100/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Sergio Garcia 30/1
Zach Johnson 80/1
Tiger Woods 100/1
Charl Schwartzel 80/1
Paul Casey 40/1
Matt Kuchar 40/1
Jim Furyk 150/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Jon Rahm 20/1
Lee Westwood 80/1
J.B. Holmes 100/1
Justin Thomas 30/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 60/1
Shane Lowry 125/1
Martin Kaymer 125/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Daniel Berger 80/1
Emiliano Grillo 125/1
Marc Leishman 60/1
Byeong Hun An 150/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1
Kevin Chappell 250/1
Jason Dufner 150/1
Steve Stricker 250/1
Angel Cabrera 200/1
Russell Knox 125/1
Charley Hoffman 150/1
Scott Piercy 150/1
Kevin Na 150/1
Gary Woodland 80/1
Kevin Kisner 100/1
Andy Sullivan 200/1
Tyrrell Hatton 50/1
Francesco Molinari 150/1
Chris Wood 250/1
Ryan Moore 125/1
Odds provided by Jeff Sherman oddsmaker
at the Westgate Las Vegas
SuperBook and one of the world’s
foremost authorities on golf odds.
Stop by to check out Jeff’s Twitter
feed at twitter.com/golfodds and his
website at www.golfodds.com
11