WINFO Issue #30

GREG DEMPSON
by Greg Dempson
TOTAL PLAY - GONZAGA BULLDOGS VS.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
This is a unique match-up as both
teams are making their first Final
Four appearance in school history.
For almost 25 years I lived in the great
white north, (Edmonton, Alberta).
Back in the day the Edmonton cable
feed came from Spokane, Washington
which gave me many opportunities
to watch the Gonzaga Bulldogs
long before they became a “fashionable”
team to follow. To be sure,
they do play in a lesser or second tier
conference while the Gamecocks play
in the mighty SEC.
To many, including myself, this line
might appear a bit on the high side
at -6.5. Having said that, how many
of you reading this were duped into
backing the Xavier Musketeers as
+8.5 dogs in Gonzaga’s last game?
The Bulldogs crushed the Musketeers,
(83-59.). That said, I am still
not comfortable laying the points, so
I looked at the first half over/under
instead.
South Carolina has been able to come
out of the locker room after the first
half and “batten down the hatches!”
Thus they’ve steam rolled the likes of
Florida, Baylor, Duke, Marquette and
Alabama in their previous neutral site
contests. Their scoring has been limited
in the first half in those five contests
as they averaged only 32.8 PPG
in the first half while allowing 31.9
points. In the second half, in those five
contests they averaged approximately
one-third more on the scoreboard
tallying 45.4 while holding those previous
five opponents to an average of
36.6 points per second half.
This 2016/2017 edition of Gonzaga
is by far the best defensive team I’ve
watched, and as stated, I have been
following the Bulldogs since they were
little pups! When reviewing their past
five neutral site tournament games
I note the Bulldogs are scoring an
average of 36.4 while allowing an
average of 25.8 first half points for a
positive net average of 10.6 first half
points. That margin is significantly
higher than the +0.9 average noted by
the Gamecocks.
Doing the Math
When factoring recent performances
by each team we have a combined
total of 62.2 for and against points for
Gonzaga vs. an average combined total
of 63.45 for South Carolina. When
adding those two totals the number
becomes 125.65, and dividing by two
gives us a total of 62.825. Looking
at the total in the first half the most
common number is 64.5 with the
Bulldogs at -3.5 @ -115 at one of the
outs I have.
Is the Glass Half-Full or Half-
Empty System?
When a team from a major Division
1-A Conference plays a foe from a
second tier conference playing with
five or six days of rest, play the first
half under the total when the Over/Under
is between 60.5 to 65.5 points. By
backing the under in this first half the
success of this system is 14-32 = 70%
to the UNDER the past five seasons.
The average first half score in this
system is 59.9 points.
In Review
Last week’s selection lost and I am
4-3-2 with my basketball selections
here at Winfo and 1-0 ATS with my
lone Blog offering.
Final Four Play
This is what I call a “beer and pizza”
bet, as it will be a recreational type of
a play only for me, but I am on Gonzaga/South
Carolina to stay under the
first half total of 64.5 points
Good luck with all your plays!
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