Cubatrade-June-Digital

TOURISM
TRAVEL TO CUBA FROM 2014 TO 2016
(number of visitors in thousands)
And the Survey Says…
US Citizens
Cuban Americans
Canadians
Other
Total
3,525
4,035
Different polls—and different
headlines—suggest that
interest in Cuba as a tourism
destination is waning.
Far from it, says the Boston
Consulting Group
2,532
2,716
2,839 2,853
3,003
1,901
By J.P. Faber
1,148
945
375
63
398
74
1,243 1,285 1,281
1,002
1,072
1,106
384
98
373
92
1,375
1,175
361
91
161 391 1,300
1,673
419
285
1,430
2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Boston Consulting Group
What, exactly, do Americans think
about traveling to Cuba? That question is
suddenly in the forefront, with the Trump
administration's changes to U.S. policies
making it harder to travel to the island by
U.S. citizens.
The answer, it turns out, depends on
which poll numbers you trust—and how
those number are spun by the media.
When U.S. commercial airlines began
reducing their scheduled flights to Cuba
in March and April, the press had a field
day with reports of a travel ‘bust.’ One
survey by Allianz Global Assistance in
May reported that 60 percent of Americans
“would not like to travel to Cuba,”
two points more than the previous year.
Demand for visiting Cuba had obviously
been greatly exaggerated, many news
outlets reported.
Not quite, says the Boston Consulting
Group. According to a survey also
released in May by the prestigious research
organization, reports of the demise of
U.S. demand for travel to Cuba have been
32 CUBATRADE JUNE/JULY 2017
greatly exaggerated.
“As we looked into the data the
idea of a ‘bust’ did not make sense,” said
Marguerite Fitzgerald, author of the BCG
study entitled Taking the Long View on
Cuba’s Tourism Opportunity. “Our research
confirms that there is strong and growing
interest among U.S. travelers. We project
compound annual growth rates of 20 percent
to 50 percent in the number of U.S.
visitors to Cuba through 2020.”
Eight years from now, according to
the study, the number of U.S. tourists to
the island could crest 2 million, representing
“a huge growth opportunity” for U.S.
hospitality firms.
A big reason for the perception that
interest in visiting Cuba has declined was
the roller coaster ride of U.S. commercial
flights to the island—an initial burst of
routes followed by a cut back. Rather than
a response to waning interest, that was
simply a matter of oversupply, Fitzgerald
told Cuba Trade. U.S. airlines initially
scheduled approximately 2 million annual
seats for roundtrip flights to Cuba. Since
then they have adjusted the supply to meet
the demand, at approximately one million
annual seats.
The other problem with the polls is
how they are conducted, and how they are
spun by the press. The BCG study, for example,
took the pulse of 500 U.S. ‘regular
vacationers,’ defined as people who take
vacations at least once every two years.
The Allianz Global study took the pulse of
1,514 people from the general population.
As far as spin goes, Fitzgerald says the
BCG study was “surprised that it was that
many” when 30 percent of travelers said
they were “definitely or probably” considering
a Cuba trip in the next five years.
Meanwhile, Daniel Durazo, director
of communications at Allianz Global
Assistance USA, said in a press release
that, “Our survey found that merely two
percent of Americans think they will go to
Cuba in the next six months.”
Merely? That would be 6.4 million
American tourists.H