Opening shot Moshe Holtzberg ,11, who survived the 2008 Mumbai terror attack but whose parents were killed, presents a damaged Torah remnant to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Chabad House in Mumbai, India, on January 18, 2018 DANISH SIDDIQUI / REUTERS
Cover Story ISRAEL’S STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT: Elements, challenges and policy recommendations By Amos Yadlin SEVEN YEARS after the onset of the upheaval in the Middle East and two years of the nuclear deal between the world powers and Iran, the main contours of the region’s emerging reality – the actors, rivalries, partnerships, front lines, power relations, and behavior of the major powers – are becoming clear. Now, after one full year, the nature of the Trump administration and its impact are also coming into sharper view. These factors shape Israel’s current strategic environment and its different policy alternatives. As Israel approaches the 70th anniversary of its independence, it can be confident in its strong national security balance, facing new challenges and significant opportunities. Elements of Israel’s strategic environment: A strong and stable Israel with quiet borders. Israel maintains its military superiority in the region and its ability to deter state, hybrid and non-state adversaries. Israel’s proven willingness and capability to take action when necessary to exact a maximum price, even at the risk of escalation, explains the relative calm along Israel’s borders in spite of resolute activity against shipment of weapons to Hezbollah and against the tunnels in the south. Israel’s non-military balance is also positive: in contrast to the destruction and decay in the surrounding Middle East, the Israeli economy is strong and stable. Despite the negative impact of Israeli policy towards the Palestinians, Israel has managed to preserve its foreign relations, particularly with the major powers. The US under the Trump administration The Trump administration is friendly to Israel, and the two States see eye-to-eye the Middle East strategic picture. However, the United States’ regional influence is waning. On the positive side are: US strengthening its relations with major allies in the region; the US view of Iran as a major rival and threat to regional stability that must be contained; US response to use of chemical weapons in Syria; support of Israel in the UN; and recently, the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. On the other hand, it is still unclear where the administration stands, between isolationism and a focus on American domestic problems, and its rhetoric on the need to strengthen US military power and use of massive force against foreign enemies. Its ability to engage systematically in management of a variety of complex issues is also limited. In the Middle East, after victory over the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq Washington appears to be tempted to proclaim “victory” and detach itself from the region. The polarization in US politics and Israeli closeness to Trump makes it difficult to position Israel as a bipartisan issue resulting in a growing rift between Israel and American Jewry on top of Israel’s controversial policies on issues of religion and civil society. Russia emerging as a major victor in the Middle East In spite of economic weakness and isolation because of Ukraine, Russia managed to solidify its status in the Middle East through its military intervention in Syria. Russia used a limited but high intensity power, and changed the direction of the civil war. It proved the efficacy of military solutions employed correctly and with determination. Russia’s protégé, the Assad regime, recovered most Syrian territory, and Russia achieved preeminence as the political actor shaping and stabilizing Syria, marginalizing the United States. It established a long term military, naval, and 6 THE JERUSALEM REPORT FEBRUARY 5, 2018
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