Airport Masterplan 2035 LOW RES

Masterplan 2035
Forecast Growth in Passengers and
Aircraft Movements
6.9 As is standard practice for airports, a range of passenger
forecasts have been produced. As has been the practice
previously for Newcastle Airport, the Masterplan is based
upon the higher end of the forecasting range. This provides
greater certainty that sufficient land has been safeguarded
to provide for the Airport’s development needs and is
included in the relevant Local Authority Development
Plan allocations. It provides members of the public and
other stakeholders with an assurance that the maximum
potential impact of the Airport’s future development has
been considered and can be mitigated. It also allows us to
make representations to Local Authority Development Plans
and on planning applications in the vicinity of the Airport to
ensure that developments, such as housing, that could be
an impediment to the future growth of the Airport don’t go
ahead, or go ahead with appropriate conditions relating to
issues such as aircraft noise.
6.10 In drawing up this Masterplan, the higher growth forecast
we have used indicates growth in passenger numbers of
up to:-
l 7.6m by 2025
l 8.7m by 2030
l 9.4m by 2035
6.11 The forecast assumes growth will be driven by an expansion
of our domestic, European, and transcontinental route
network, as well as some upsizing of aircraft on existing
routes.
6.12 In the higher growth forecast, aircraft movements are
expected to continue the trend shown from 2015-2016 with
a small but continual increase each year. It is anticipated
that by 2025 there will be up to approximately 75,200
movements, up to 80,800 in 2030 and by 2035 up to 83,300.
The 2035 total would be an increase of up to 40% over the
59,407 handled in 2017, but would only be slightly greater
than the number of movements in the year 2000.
6.13 As our forecasts indicate that new airlines will be serving
the Airport and our route network will be expanded, this
will result in additional aircraft movements. The projected
growth in long haul routes will also result in large growth
in passengers through less frequent movements, however,
we anticipate that airlines will continue to upsize aircraft
on existing routes adding capacity without the need for
additional flights.
Cargo
6.14 Although the Airport is currently not a major hub for air flown
cargo, our operation is larger than most other UK airports of
a similar size in terms of passenger numbers, aside from the
major cargo hub at East Midlands Airport. However it is an
area of the Airport’s operation where we have identified the
demand and physical capacity for growth.
6.15 The volume of cargo passing through the Airport over recent
years has fluctuated with demand and wider economic
activity. Over 9,500 tons of cargo was flown in 2016, broadly
a 12% increase from the previous year. The value of these
exports was over £350m.
6.16 The capacity of belly holds on wide body aircraft such as
the Emirates Boeing 777, and the market opportunities
trans-continental routes open up for exporters, shows the
growth in cargo movements which could be brought about
Independent Economic Review, and the Strategic Economic
Plans for the North East and Tees Valley LEPs all identify
the growth potential for these key high value sectors, and
strategy interventions to facilitate this. They also identify the
need to support an increase in exports. This in turn could
lead to a larger market for air flown cargo.
6.19 In addition, in a globalised and digitised economy where
the demand for the movement of some goods direct to
homes now often skips the traditional high street, there is an
apparent growing demand for the development of last mile
freight facilities, where goods can be transferred between
modes. Land south of the runway is able to accommodate
such development.
6.20 Globally the market for air cargo is expected to continue to
grow over the Masterplan period. Boeing has forecast that
world air cargo traffic will grow on average 4.2% per year
from 2015-2035, and as such they and other manufacturers
have a healthy order backlog for freighter aircraft 14 .
6.21 In addition to those factors, we anticipate that there will be
growth in long haul services utilising wide body aircraft,
which will add significant capacity for goods to be carried in
their belly holds.
by more direct long haul routes. Indeed, this is identified
Figure 9 - Passenger and Aircraft Movements 2016-2035 (Higher Growth Forecast)
Number of Passengers per annum (Millions)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
2016
2017
2018
Year
Movements
Passengers
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Aircraft Movements per annum (Thousands)
Aircraft movements
2000 - 82,940
2017 - 57,808
2035 - 83,300
by Transport for the North as the means by which northern
airports should grow their cargo services.
6.17 The Airport does not have bespoke forecasts for the
growth of air cargo to 2035. It is highly dependent on
locational decisions made by individual cargo companies
and carriers, both at the Airport and in the wider market.
However, there are a number of reasons why we expect our
cargo operations to expand, both in terms of current and
new operators.
6.18 Goods shipped by air tend to be high value and/or their
delivery is time critical, such as advanced manufactured
products, parts in a global just-in-time delivery systems,
pharmaceuticals, and fresh produce. The Government’s
emerging Industrial Strategy, Transport for the North’s
12
http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/commercial/about-our-market/cargomarket-detail-wacf/download-report/assets/pdfs/wacf.pdf
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