Westlake Forest June 2018
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>2018</strong> ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON<br />
The <strong>2018</strong> Atlantic hurricane season is an upcoming event in the annual<br />
formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season<br />
will officially begin on <strong>June</strong> 1, <strong>2018</strong> and end on November 30, <strong>2018</strong>.<br />
These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical<br />
cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However,<br />
the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year.<br />
Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological<br />
services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms,<br />
hurricanes and major (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson<br />
scale) hurricanes will form during a season and/or how many tropical<br />
cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the<br />
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London,<br />
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and<br />
Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and<br />
monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number<br />
of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes within a particular<br />
year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what<br />
happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had<br />
recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane<br />
season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six<br />
hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone<br />
Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.<br />
Pre-season outlooks<br />
The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 7,<br />
2017, predicting a slightly above-average season in <strong>2018</strong>, with a total<br />
of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On April 5,<br />
<strong>2018</strong>, CSU released their forecast, predicting a slightly above-average<br />
season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.<br />
On the same day, TSR released their second forecast on the same day<br />
and called for a slightly-below average hurricane season, predicting<br />
12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, due to recent<br />
anomalous cooling in the far northern and tropical Atlantic. Several<br />
days later on April 16 th , North Carolina State University released their<br />
predictions, calling for a well above-average season, with 14-18 named<br />
storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. On April 19 th , The<br />
Weather Company released their first forecasts, calling for <strong>2018</strong> to be<br />
a near-average season, with a total of 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes<br />
and 2 major hurricanes.<br />
Storm names<br />
The following list of names will be used for named storms that form<br />
in the North Atlantic in <strong>2018</strong>. Retired names, if any, will be announced<br />
by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2019. The<br />
names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season.<br />
This is the same list used in the 2012 season, with the exception of the<br />
name Sara, which replaced Sandy.<br />
Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac,<br />
Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony,<br />
Valerie and William. Source: Wikipedia.org<br />
Community Newsletter | <strong>June</strong> <strong>2018</strong><br />
33