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The Points June 2018

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<strong>2018</strong> ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>2018</strong> Atlantic hurricane season is an upcoming event in the annual<br />

formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. <strong>The</strong> season<br />

will officially begin on <strong>June</strong> 1, <strong>2018</strong> and end on November 30, <strong>2018</strong>.<br />

<strong>The</strong>se dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical<br />

cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However,<br />

the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year.<br />

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological<br />

services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms,<br />

hurricanes and major (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson<br />

scale) hurricanes will form during a season and/or how many tropical<br />

cyclones will affect a particular country. <strong>The</strong>se agencies include the<br />

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London,<br />

the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and<br />

Colorado State University (CSU). <strong>The</strong> forecasts include weekly and<br />

monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number<br />

of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes within a particular<br />

year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what<br />

happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had<br />

recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane<br />

season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six<br />

hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone<br />

Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.<br />

Pre-season outlooks<br />

<strong>The</strong> first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 7,<br />

2017, predicting a slightly above-average season in <strong>2018</strong>, with a total<br />

of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On April 5,<br />

<strong>2018</strong>, CSU released their forecast, predicting a slightly above-average<br />

season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.<br />

On the same day, TSR released their second forecast on the same day<br />

and called for a slightly-below average hurricane season, predicting<br />

12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, due to recent<br />

anomalous cooling in the far northern and tropical Atlantic. Several<br />

days later on April 16 th , North Carolina State University released their<br />

predictions, calling for a well above-average season, with 14-18 named<br />

storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes. On April 19 th , <strong>The</strong><br />

Weather Company released their first forecasts, calling for <strong>2018</strong> to be<br />

a near-average season, with a total of 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes<br />

and 2 major hurricanes.<br />

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Storm names<br />

<strong>The</strong> following list of names will be used for named storms that form<br />

in the North Atlantic in <strong>2018</strong>. Retired names, if any, will be announced<br />

by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2019. <strong>The</strong><br />

names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season.<br />

This is the same list used in the 2012 season, with the exception of the<br />

name Sara, which replaced Sandy.<br />

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac,<br />

Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony,<br />

Valerie and William. Source: Wikipedia.org<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>Points</strong> Community Newsletter | <strong>June</strong> <strong>2018</strong><br />

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