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predictable

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predictably irrational<br />

this wasn't the only activity that caught his eye. With each<br />

additional click, the other doors diminished by one-twelfth,<br />

signifying that if not attended to, they would vanish. Eight<br />

more clicks and they would disappear forever.<br />

Sam wasn't about to let that happen. Swinging his cursor<br />

around, he clicked on the red door, brought it up to its full<br />

size, and clicked three times inside the red room. But now he<br />

noticed the green door—it was four clicks from disappearing.<br />

Once again, he moved his cursor, this time restoring the<br />

green door to its full size.<br />

The green door appeared to be delivering the highest<br />

payout. So should he stay there? (Remember that each room<br />

had a range of payouts. So Sam could not be completely<br />

convinced that the green door was actually the best. The<br />

blue might have been better, or perhaps the red, or maybe<br />

neither.) With a frenzied look in his eye, Sam swung his<br />

cursor across the screen. He clicked the red door and<br />

watched the blue door continue to shrink. After a few clicks<br />

in the red, he jumped over to the blue. But by now the green<br />

was beginning to get dangerously small—and so he was<br />

back there next.<br />

Before long, Sam was racing from one option to another,<br />

his body leaning tensely into the game. In my mind I pictured<br />

a typically harried parent, rushing kids from one activity to<br />

the next.<br />

Is this an efficient way to live our lives—especially when<br />

another door or two is added every week? I can't tell you the<br />

answer for certain in terms of your personal life, but in our<br />

experiments we saw clearly that running from pillar to post<br />

was not only stressful but uneconomical. In fact, in their<br />

frenzy to keep doors from shutting, our participants ended<br />

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