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The best solutions for any LED measurement application! - Beriled

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standards | UPDATE<br />

Engineering or statistical evaluation<br />

Two approaches can be used to predict <strong>LED</strong> lumen maintenance using<br />

testing data. Th e fi rst is an engineering approach. Initially this analyzes<br />

the causes of <strong>LED</strong> lumen degradation to identify if the light output<br />

loss over time is caused by aging of the <strong>LED</strong> chip, by material<br />

decay (encapsulation, lens, and phosphor), or by structural change<br />

(substrates, refl ector, etc.). Th ese degradations may be verifi ed or distinguished<br />

by stress-testing <strong>LED</strong>s under more severe conditions, such<br />

as high temperature, high humidity or high current. Th e experts can,<br />

based on their engineering expertise and the tests’ fi ndings, establish<br />

corresponding mathematical models. In turn, these mathematical<br />

models, once verifi ed, can then be used to predict lumen maintenance.<br />

Th e second approach is a statistical approach and is based purely<br />

on the testing data itself. For <strong>any</strong> given set of data, one or more mathematical<br />

equations can be applied to the data points, and then used<br />

to extrapolate the trends <strong>for</strong> making predictions. A set of rules and<br />

measures can be established to choose which mathematical model<br />

(or models) provides the <strong>best</strong> fi t with the data. Th e model(s) can then<br />

LINKS<br />

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Previous Page | Contents | Zoom in | Zoom out | Front Cover | Search Issue | Subscribe | Next Page M S BE<br />

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<strong>LED</strong> lighting community benefi ts from ongoing standardization ef<strong>for</strong>ts<br />

<strong>LED</strong>s Magazine February 2010, p59: www.ledsmagazine.com/features/7/4/7<br />

Non-directional luminaires require new testing procedures <strong>for</strong> <strong>LED</strong> light engines<br />

<strong>LED</strong>s Magazine Nov/Dec 2010, p47: www.ledsmagazine.com/features/7/11/8<br />

________________<br />

be used to make extrapolations without <strong>any</strong> engineering judgments.<br />

Th e engineering approach is largely based on experts’ knowledge<br />

and understanding of the technologies and processes used in <strong>LED</strong><br />

production, while the statistical approach is based on the rules and<br />

criteria that make the <strong>application</strong> of mathematical <strong>for</strong>mulas reliable<br />

and consistent.<br />

When <strong>LED</strong> manufacturers (or third-party researchers) produce<br />

LM-80 reports and relay their fi ndings to the <strong>LED</strong> users (including <strong>LED</strong><br />

luminaire manufacturers), the data only refl ects the <strong>LED</strong>s’ behavior<br />

within the testing duration (e.g. 6,000 hours), and <strong>LED</strong> users are often<br />

unable to identify the causes <strong>for</strong> those behaviors. Th ese behaviors make<br />

sense if the proper mathematical model(s) can be identifi ed, which<br />

would not only off er the <strong>best</strong> fi t <strong>for</strong> the data points within 6,000 hours,<br />

but also provide extrapolations that match the data points long beyond<br />

the initial testing period. Un<strong>for</strong>tunately, this is not the case. According<br />

to the industry experts, 6,000 hours of <strong>LED</strong> testing is too short to<br />

create accurate mathematical models that lead to reliable predictions.<br />

Dealing with a dilemma<br />

Considering these facts, it appears that the industry is at a<br />

crossroads in regard to lumen-maintenance prediction.<br />

Mandating a longer testing duration, such as 10,000 hours or<br />

more, would certainly add more burdens to <strong>LED</strong> and <strong>LED</strong>module<br />

manufacturers and delay the introduction of new<br />

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