Panels & Furniture Asia January/February 2021

MATERIALS
three years, the shipments of white
oak to the secondary Latin American
market have reduced considerably. As
a result, the export of timber species
has become more diversified, and
exporters of white oak depend more
on sales to Mexico.
OVERVIEW OF EXPORT
TO GLOBAL MARKETS
The annual export of white oak hit
an all-time high in 2017 and 2018, yet
experienced a decline of 17% last year
and had been down by another 12%
up to the end of March 2020, leading to
its lowest annual export volume since
2013. Since last summer, the monthly
export of white oak has remained
basically stable. Compared to timber
species that are more dependent on
China (eg, red oak, ash and cherry
wood), the export of white oak is
less susceptible to the aftershocks of
plummeting Chinese demand owing to
its extensive global demand.
EUROPE
Historically speaking, white oak
accounted for roughly half of all US
hardwood sawn timber export to
Europe, next only to tulipwood. In
the past few years, the export of red
oak and ash to Europe showed an
increase. Over the past two years,
the monthly export of white oak to
Europe has tended downwards, but has
strengthened since end-2019, despite
several factors that may weaken the
market.
UNITED KINGDOM
In 2014, the annual shipments of white
oak to the United Kingdom (UK) almost
doubled and have been heading
upward ever since. Since December,
the monthly shipments of white oak to
the UK have been edging up, with the
shipments in March being the highest
in three years. Specifically, white
oak export continued to climb when
COVID-19 first started to spread. At the
end of February, the first confirmed
case of COVID-19 was reported in the
UK, and in mid-March, the country
went into a state of lockdown.
It is worth remembering that analysts
predicted that Brexit would greatly
undermine the UK economy, and thus
British buyers estimated a decline in
Britain’s demand for US white oak over
the long haul. However, since 2016, the
monthly export to the UK has remained
much the same, whether in times of
Britain’s referendum on leaving the EU,
or the official coming-into-effect of the
Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in January
2020.
ITALY
From mid-2017 to mid-2018, the export
of white oak to Italy remained mostly
stable, but its shipments fluctuated and
on the whole declined in the following
12 months. However, during the
second half of last year, the shipments
rebounded to “normal” and have since
then levelled at a monthly average
of 1,100 cubic meters (470 thousand
board feet [MBF]). Italy was among
the first countries battered by the
novel coronavirus, and has been the
most ravaged nation as far as the case
fatality rate is concerned. Analysts said
that compared with other European
countries, this would slow the pace
of its economic recovery all the more
(Reuters). The export of white oak to
Italy reduced by 14% in March, which
probably indicated that the virus has
first taken its toll on the demand for
white oak.
Before COVID-19, debt-ridden Italy had
already put downward pressure on the
euro. The Italian government is virtually
unpredictable; their administrations
have come and gone multiple times over
the past few years. Since the end of the
Second World War, Italian governments
have changed over 60 times. By the end
of March 2020, the export of white oak to
Italy had grown by 3%.
GERMANY
Over the past two decades, the export
of white oak to Germany has undergone
a moderate rise, although shipments
fell by 18% last year. In March 2020, the
monthly export to Germany marked the
third straight month of gains. However,
this was the first time growth lasted
for three consecutive months since
mid-2018. Shipments to Germany thus
far in 2020 saw a year-on-year increase
of 6%.
Germany is the largest country
in Europe. However, it had only a
lacklustre performance before being
afflicted by COVID-19, especially
in the manufacturing sector. In the
fourth quarter of 2019, Germany’s
economy contracted slightly. Then,
in the first quarter of 2020, the
country’s economy officially sunk
into a recession due to a shrinking
by a wide margin inflicted upon by
the pandemic, the first time since the
global financial crisis in the late 2000s.
But compared to other European
countries, Germany’s economic
contraction in the first quarter was
not too abysmal, which was because
Germany allowed its factories and
construction sites to remain open.
Such efforts served as an underpinning
of the demand for white oak.
Photo: Jan Kopřiva / Unsplash
Panels & Furniture Asia | January / February 2021 49