25042021 - B/Haram bandits almost succeeding in their mission CAN president warns

SUNDAY VANGUARD, APRIL 25, 2021, PAGE 7
FG, states broke,
another recession
looms
“To
By Dele Sobowale
HOW GOVERNORS
CREATED
PROBLEM: TWO
GOVERNORS
“In every community there is a class of people
profoundly dangerous to the rest. I don’t mean
criminals. For them we have punitive
sanctions. I mean the leaders. Invariably, the
most dangerous people seek power” - Saul
Bellow, 1915-2015.
The Federal Government had a major role
to play in the present predicament in which
the nation finds itself.
But next time you hear a governor saying
“all hands must be on deck”, then know you
are listening to hogwash. They never mean it.
The only hands they want on deck are those
to help clear the cargo off the ship of state.
Shortly after President Muhammadu
Buhari signed the Minimum Wage Bill into
law in 2019, with instructions for “immediate
implementation”, I placed my hands on deck.
From my own calculations, FG and states
were set in motion for the financial crash we
are all experiencing. So, I wrote a letter to two
state governors; one belonging to the All
Progressives Congress, APC, and the other
Peoples’ Democratic Party, PDP. For some
reason, Governors Fayemi, Ekiti, and
Makinde, Oyo, appeared to me like two of the
most astute among them; and they would
listen.
I was wrong.
None of the two governors even
acknowledged receipt of the letter. Today, they
are all faced with the calamity I was aiming
know that which before us lies in daily life; is
the prime wisdom” - John Milton, 1608-1674,
VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, page 275.
to avert.
Below, I reproduce portions of the letter
privately sent to those wanting “all hands on
deck”.
Like most of my writings, readers would be
amazed by how predictive it was.
The letter was written on
June 12, 2019 and sent by DHL
and reads:
“From the attached copy of
my article on Monday, June
10, 2019, it is obvious why I
am writing to both of you.
“There is an important
national issue – Minimum
Wage – which needs to be
handled carefully by all the
governments of the
Federation to avert dire
economic consequences.
“I am happy that you
represent the two major
parties. That should remove
any doubt about my political
impartiality on this matter.
“Minimum Wage
represents potential danger to
every state – including those
assuming that they can pay at
the moment.
“Four major reasons
account for that declaration.
1. Timing is wrong. This
year, the nation faces a drastic reduction in
crude oil revenue which is the critical factor
in the ability of the FG and states to pay the
new minimum wage and still discharge other
responsibilities to their people.
States now spending close to 70 per cent of
their revenue paying salaries will need to
borrow just to cover the new payroll bill. How
can that be possible when crude oil revenue
sharply declines? Most states are drowning
under huge debt repayment already without
this albatross around their necks.
2. Virtually all
Even the richest five
– Lagos, Rivers,
Delta, Akwa Ibom
and Kano – are now
feeling the strain.
The poorest five –
Nasarawa, Gombe,
Plateau, Ekiti and
Ebonyi - merely
collect revenue to
pay salaries
institutions and
organisations worldwide
– World Bank, IMF, World
Poverty Clock, Fitch etc -
acting independently and
appraising the prospects
for Nigeria’s Gross
Domestic Product, GDP,
this year have arrived at
the same conclusion.
Nigeria’s GDP will grow
by less than 2.5 per cent.
That means lower per
capita income and
deepening poverty. That
also precludes possibility
for states to increase their
Internally Generated
Revenue, IGR,
significantly to help pay
the increased bill.
3. Nature is not kind
to us this year. Delayed
rains will inevitably result
in poor food harvest. I
know that from what is
happening in my farm.
Governments will be better advised to
anticipate demands for food donations from
starving Nigerians late this year and early
2020. Herdsmen have not helped either.
4. Heightened insecurity nationwide
means only one thing – governors will be called
upon to spend more on combating crimes in
their states on a scale never before experienced
in this country.
“Obviously, governments’ resources would
have been stretched beyond limits without the
added burden of Minimum Wage. For most,
it is now an impossible task and the sooner all
the governors realise this, the better”.
It was time for ‘siddon look’. It was certain
to me that we were headed for a great
economic catastrophe. But, who else could I
contact; when my own “brothers” turned blind
eyes to the warning?
WHAT WERE THE ISSUES AT STAKE?
“O! What a tangled web we weave/ When
first we practice to deceive” - Sir Walter Scott,
1771-1832.
Governments have always deceived the
people. Politicians care about the next election
– not about national interest. The calamity
unfolding received its greatest momentum a
few days to the presidential election in 2019
when the Federal Government made an
announcement; and my observations followed
that announcement.
Let me take us back to recent Nigerian
history to illustrate how dangerous our
political leaders have become.
MINIMUM WAGE AND
OUR PERPETUAL FAILURE
TO BE PROACTIVE
“‘FG approves N30, 000 for its staff’.
‘National Council of States recommends
N27, 000’ - AIT, January 23, 2019.
Insanity has been described by sages
elsewhere as ‘doing the same thing all over
again and expecting a different result.’
The last time the nation and coming
elections were hostage to dispute over
Minimum Wage negotiations, the President
was Jonathan and the ruling party was the
Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Then, as now, the Federal Government, FG,
and state governments waited until the last
few days to elections before hastily reaching
an agreement. Suddenly, political leaders at
federal and state levels, who had been
lethargic about the matter, acted speedily to
avert the consequences of failing to hold
elections.
On January 22, 2019, the FG and the
National Council of States, NCS, suddenly
woke up to the fact that the request of the
Organised Labour for a new Minimum Wage
must be addressed. The FG approved N30,
000 for its staff and the NCS recommended
N27, 000 apparently nationwide.
That the FG and NCS waited until another
election is threatened demonstrates the
collective inability of leaders to learn from
Continues on page 10