July/August 2021

Contract The Business Talk Pilot Barometer
THIRD WAVE OF DEMAND?
We could expect to see another significant increase in demand from late August through
to October, says Neil Cooper-Smith, senior analyst at Business Pilot...
Business Pilot Barometer Edition 18: April/May/June 2021
“Having seen a drop of 12% in May on April, average sales jumped by 14% in June on May,
putting the window and door sales back firmly on an upward trajectory. Conversion rates were
also up marginally month on month from 35.8% to 36.9%.
“Leads were also up 12% June on May, for the most part cancelling out the 14% drop in leads
seen the previous month.
“While there is little sign of the market cooling anytime soon, there was, however, a significant
drop (32%) in average order values from around the £6,400 mark to £4,400. This may be
attributable to seasonality, with more single product purchases e.g., bi-folding and entrance
doors, flowing through the sales pipeline. We do, however, think that it’s something to watch
and may suggest that the spend generated by the first round of Stamp Duty completions at the
end of March may have flowed through the sales pipeline.
“That doesn’t necessarily mean the boom is running out of steam, with a second stampede
seen last month ahead of changes to the relief at the start of this month. This sees the previous
break on the first £500,000 of a home purchase, which has driven the housing boom, drop to
£250,000, ahead of being phased out entirely from the 1st of October. In real terms that means
that anyone completing this side of the cut-off point will see their potential Stamp Duty saving
drop from £15,000 to £2,500.
“While we wouldn’t want to nail our colours to the flag on this, if demand follows from the
same pattern as seen from the previous cut-off point in March, we could expect to see another
increase in demand late August and through to October.
“After that, while some of the savings made in Stamp Duty by house buyers may continue to
trickle through, we believe new consumer spend on home improvements may start to slow.
Continuing supply issues and extended order books mean that this will not, however, translate
into any significant slowdown in the market this year.
“Supply chain security remains the sector’s greatest challenge in the immediate term. Steel
and resin prices have continued to rocket and glass supply remains disrupted. This has been
compounded by national shortages post-Brexit in delivery drivers, and additional complexity
at ports.
“Economists warn that despite positive order books now, wider disruption to component,
material and product supply in the economy as a whole – not only construction – has the
potential to derail recovery.
“We’d add that closer to home, installers are losing margin on jobs because of supply
challenges. Understanding those and pricing them into the job is more important than ever.”
The Business Pilot Barometer offers a monthly analysis of the key trends
defining window and door retail, drawing on real industry data collated
by the Business Pilot customer relationship management system (CRM).
Business Pilot uses cloud-based technologies to give installers complete
visibility of every element of their operation from leads and conversions to
job scheduling, cost of installation, service calls, and financial reporting.
www.businesspilot.co.uk
www.businesspilot.co.uk/barometer
12 T I JULY/AUGUST 2021