YDS 2021 in Review

NATO remained undeterred. A few days later, the alliance carried out its largest-ever
interoperability exercises in the Black Sea. An official announcement also repudiated
"Russia's illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea." This was followed in
September by the first meeting of the "Crimean Platform," a Kyiv-led diplomatic
initiative that aims to reverse the annexation.
By November, a standoff between Poland and Belarus saw tensions rise for the
third time in a year. After Moscow was accused once more of amassing forces on
the Ukrainian border, Washington assigned two Coast Guard boats to the Ukrainian
Navy to strengthen its position in the Black Sea. Under diplomatic pressure,
Germany also suspended approval of Nord Stream 2, a Russian gas pipeline that
aims to provide the country with low-cost energy. Washington has also threatened
to cancel the project in the event of war.
C O N C L U S I O N
Despite increased tensions over 2021, geopolitical competition in the Black Sea
remains in a state of deadlock. The need to ensure warm-water ports across its
south frontier remains a pressing strategic concern for Russia, one intimately tied to
its ability to project military strength and access international maritime trade routes.
Simultaneously, Ukraine and Georgia continue to express an active interest in
joining NATO, which remains the only sure-fire way to safeguard their national
interests, protect their territorial integrity, and maintain sovereign independence in
the face of an increasingly assertive Russia.
From a realist perspective, these two outcomes appear mutually exclusive, where
one’s success will come at the failure of the other. Consequently, leaders on all sides
face a seemingly insurmountable challenge to balance national security priorities,
meet the requests of regional partners, and preserve regional peace and stability.
Unfortunately, in such circumstances, there are limits to what even the most agile
diplomacy can accomplish.
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