YDS 2021 in Review

P H O T O B Y G A Y A T R I M A L H O T R A O N U N S P L A S H
D E S C E N T I N T O C I V I L W A R & T H E
S T R E N G T H E N I N G O F T H E N U G
The civil resistance to the coup has been robust since February. In addition to
opposition from the general public, professionals like bankers, doctors, and
teachers, are refusing to work and crippling important parts of the economy.
However, consistent military pressure from the junta forced these elements to flee
cities and seek refuge in the countryside, which resulted in many civilians acquiring
combat training from various EAOs - which have been locked in their own war
against the government for decades.
The civilian-soldiers have professionalised and organised under the banner of the
People's Defence Force (PDF) as the military wing of the NUG. The PDF have
occupied Kawlin, a northern region of the country, acquired materiel such as
explosives, jets, and firearms, and are simultaneously repelling incursions from the
Tatamadaw and working to stabilise areas under their control. Recent reporting
from the region indicates the effectiveness of PDF. In July they seized a shipment of
gold headed for Mandalay, the nation's second largest city and headquarters of the
military council, and in October at least 40 Tatamadaw soldiers were killed in an
attempted incursion of the Kawlin region.
Matching these military successes is its international appeal to the diaspora. In
November, the NUG issued bonds to fund its warfighting efforts. Unlike typical
government bonds, these are not investments expected to generate returns within
the stated two-year timeline. Rather, they are direct contributions to the
revolutionary effort. Within 24 hours of the bonds being released, mainly to
overseas Burmese, $US 6.3 million worth of bonds were sold. The shadow
government aims to generate $US 1 billion through this initiative.
Apart from the military conflict, which is seemingly necessary to displace the junta,
the NUG is grappling with the political questions that have evolved from the intense
ethnic divisions that have plagued the country since independence. The solution
formulated by the NUG is to form a federal democratic union in coalition with the
EAOs. The most ideal outcome is the end of ethnic separatism, because the federal
government will have representatives drawn from all ethnic groups, giving them
political representation and a meaningful voice in governance. A notable exception
from this configuration is the Rohingya ethnic group, a product of Burmese
conceptions of identity which is exclusive of Islam.
A second complication, and a more concerning one for the NUG, is buy-in from the
EAOs. While all can agree with the dissolution of the Tatmadaw, what comes after is
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