Green Economy Journal Issue 61

MOBILITY
MOBILITY
One of the key issues Tesla had initially, was not with the core vehicle
technology but the scaling up and quality control of manufacturing
cars in large numbers, something that traditional automakers tend
to do very well. This will be a big part of why these tech companies
have often partnered with traditional automakers or other large
manufacturers with experience. This sort of approach could see
another key shift in how the automotive market is structured, with
traditional OEMs manufacturing the vehicle and tech companies
providing the software and integration. The benefit for the end user
would be a well-built vehicle that integrates seamlessly with all their
other electronic devices.
IDTechEx
THE FUTURE OF EVs
Evolution of the automotive industry and
electrification beyond cars
2023 has proven another momentous year for the electric vehicle market. Growth in 2023 was
hampered by the poor performance of plug-in hybrids in Europe. However, even with less
aggressive growth than in previous years, many will agree that EVs are the future, especially
for the passenger car market. So, what else can be learned about the future of electrification?
BY IDTechEx
While the electric vehicle (EV) has become an everyday term
that the public is now aware of, there are still certainly
large technological and market trends occurring in the
automotive market. Beyond this, many other vehicle segments are
seeing electrification take off; these include various vehicles on the
road (vans, trucks, buses, two-wheelers, three-wheelers, microcars,
etc), but also off-road segments like construction vehicles and trains.
It isn’t just vehicles on land either, with marine sectors and aerial
vehicles like air taxis gaining increased interest and market traction.
Each vehicle category is at a different stage of electrification and has
its own technology and market demands depending on technical
feasibility, consumer acceptance, government policy and several
other factors.
Electric vehicle sales and battery demand to 2026.
IDTechEx predicts a moderate two-fold increase in the yearly sales
of EVs across all the segments mentioned above by 2034; this is partly
due to the sales of electric two- and three-wheelers already stagnating
in some major markets. However, the battery demand increased by
over 7.7 times in the same period, driven by the car market, but with
the other segments making a significant contribution.
Technology companies becoming automotive suppliers
Tesla is undoubtedly a leader in the EV space, and it has changed the
way that many think about the car as a product. The sales process is
more akin to purchasing any other consumer electronics product than
what is typically thought of when buying a car. In addition to this, the
ownership is taking that form too; many EVs now offer over-the-air
updates to keep a car’s systems up to date, whereas, for example,
many traditional automakers would have had to do this during a
service and have been known to require hefty fees to update satellite
navigation maps, something that is becoming standard to update for
free remotely. Several vehicles now come with features that can be
purchased or subscribed to later.
With this transition to cars looking more like a mobile phone than
a traditional car, major technology companies have taken an interest
in the car market and, rather than supplying small components, are
looking at providing the whole car.
Huawei was an early example of this approach and started selling its
SERES SF5 in China in 2021. After many years of exhibiting automotiverelated
technology, Sony has entered a partnership with Honda to
provide vehicles with production scheduled for 2026. Other examples
that have announced projects include Xiaomi, Baidu (a joint venture
with Geely), Foxconn, and others. Apple scaled back a fully autonomous
car project, but rumours continue on an electric car project.
EVCIPA (China), EAFO (Europe), AFDC (US). Compiled by IDTechEx.
Charging infrastructure growth required to meet EV demand
The global EV charging infrastructure market is growing steadily.
There were 2.7-million public charging points worldwide in 2022.
Nearly 960k chargers were installed globally in that same year. It is
estimated that 222-million chargers will be needed by 2034 to support
the growing global EV fleet and that the cumulative global investment
in global charging infrastructure will exceed US$123-billion by 2034
(hardware cost alone).
There is undoubtedly a huge push to build global public DC fast
charging networks. China is leading the race with 1.797-million total
public chargers deployed, taking ~70% of the global market share.
The US government is providing more than $5-billion in funding and
incentives to build a coast-to-coast fast charging network under The
National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program. The
Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) in the EU is similarly
driving the growth of public charger installations by mandating a
station every 60km along highways. DC fast chargers are forecasted
to exhibit a higher growth rate in the coming decade, although AC
chargers will dominate by unit volume in terms of deployment.
Global charging infrastructure installations. Data shown as
of April 2023.
The global EV charging network remains fragmented, with many
charge point operators battling for market share across regions. Leading
automakers recently adopted Tesla’s North American Charging Standard
(NACS) charging connector for their US models. Tesla operates the
largest global public DC charging network, and in North America NACS
outnumbers combined charging standard (CCS) two to one, which
explains the switch to Tesla’s standard. Furthermore, the network is
more reliable and has 20% to 70% lower deployment costs than their
competitors due to in-house design and manufacturing of components.
From a technical standpoint, Tesla’s connector is lightweight, supports
both AC and DC through shared pins, and can support higher amperage
due to immersion-cooled cables. Cars and EV supply equipment
supporting CCS in the US will make up less than 50% market share by
the end of the decade, although it will remain the dominant standard
across the EU and UK regions.
*Authors: Dr James Edmondson, principal technology analyst, and Shazan Siddiqi, senior technology analyst, IDTechEx.
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