Green Economy Journal Issue 58

G R E E N
Economy
journal
ISSUE 58 | 2023
The highs & lows of
HYDROGEN
20
COMMERCIAL
AND
INDUSTRIAL
24
BLOCKED
SUPPLY
CHAINS
42 PART
INFRASTRUCTURE
DEVELOPMENT
2

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PUBLISHER’S NOTE
Beyond emergency!
As I write this note, commercial and industrial (C&I) energy
customers around South Africa find themselves trapped between a
dysfunctional utility and an industry hamstrung by rising equipment
costs, a lack of competition as well as blocked supply chains.
After years of slow uptake of hybrid solar PV and battery
projects and the rapid uptake of diesel gensets, C&I customers are
rushing for solutions to stem the financial bloodshed resulting from
hours per day of running those gensets.
EPCs are inundated with requests for rushed quotes while solar
panels, batteries and certified inverters are in short supply with lead
times ranging from two to six months.
At the same time, costs are rising. Between profit taking, rising
interest rates, rising cost of forex, the price of equipment goes
up almost weekly. Prices can even change between order and
delivery, resulting in higher markups by EPCs.
Competitors are circling but barriers to entry are keeping them
at bay. These include unfamiliar brands, fear of being first, local
certification requirements and a lack of presence/support by
suppliers in the country. Every electrician, builder and plumber
is becoming an installer, with all range of experience levels, but
closing the bigger deals remains challenging.
Net effect, the industry is stymied. For now. But the midterm
outlook is extremely good for the broad uptake of solar PV/battery
hybrid systems, and this is very positive for overall grid capacity and
stability.
Onwards and upwards!
Regards,
Publisher
G R E E N
Economy
journal
EDITOR:
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Alexis Knipe
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Alexis Knipe
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Danielle Solomons
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CDC Design
Melanie Taylor
Steven Mokopane
Gerard Jeffcote
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Tanya Duthie
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REG NUMBER: 2005/003854/07
VAT NUMBER: 4750243448
PUBLICATION DATE: June 2023
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G R E E N
Economy
journal
CONTENTS
4 NEWS AND SNIPPETS
ENERGY
8 Stand out from the decarbonisation crowd
14 The highs & lows of hydrogen
20 Commercial and industrial small-scale embedded generation
24 How to navigate the headwinds in the renewable energy
supply chain
27 Unlocking the power of the sun
29 Preparing the way for a solar PV plant
30 Reducing the cost of wind turbine foundations
31 Progress in private offtake market is leading towards a
liberalised energy system
35 It’s time to look in the mirror, says REVOV
48 Energy materials research is driving changes
MOBILITY
18 Toyota fuel cell technology opens new horizons
for sustainability
32 Mineral supply constraints are looming
36 The value of micromobility for African cities
08
32
EDITOR’S NOTE
Hydrogen demand is expected to grow globally from both
incumbent markets as well as from new markets. This increase
in hydrogen production and use is being driven by a growing desire
to improve energy security and by decarbonisation efforts (page 14).
To achieve reliable and cost-efficient energy supply, commercial
and industrial consumers are looking for alternative sources of
energy for their operations. However, careful consideration of all the
tariff components is necessary to determine the economic business
case of small-scale embedded generation (page 20).
The renewable energy supply chain is under pressure, with
massive consequences for project developers. Demand for
equipment is surging for everything from wind turbines to solar
PV modules and hydrogen electrolyzers – and the supply gaps are
widening (page 24).
The rapid increase in EV sales during the pandemic has tested the
resilience of battery supply chains and Russia’s war in Ukraine further
exacerbated the challenge. Prices of raw materials such as cobalt,
lithium and nickel have surged (page 32).
Enjoy this issue!
Alexis Knipe
Editor
All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any way or
in any form without the prior written permission of the Publisher. The opinions expressed herein
are not necessarily those of the Publisher or the Editor. All editorial and advertising contributions
are accepted on the understanding that the contributor either owns or has obtained all necessary
copyrights and permissions. The Publisher does not endorse any claims made in the publication
by or on behalf of any organisations or products. Please address any concerns in this regard to
the Publisher.
WATER
40 South Africa’s water update
INFRASTRUCTURE
42 Quo Vadis: infrastructure development. Part 2
WASTE
51 Waste not, want not by USE-IT
52 Effective waste management
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3

NEWS & SNIPPETS
NEWS & SNIPPETS
OF SA, GOVERNMENT AND
KARPOWERSHIPS
According to Rudi Dicks, head of the project management
office in the Presidency and member of the National Energy Crisis
Committee (NECOM), government is considering reducing the
term for Karpowership contracts as an “emergency measure”.
Dicks says contracts of potentially five to 10 years would be
preferable to the initial term of 20 years.
Despite being named as a preferred bidder in government’s
RMIPPPP in 2021 to provide over 1 200MW of power at three of
South African ports, Karpowership has drawn criticism over the
cost of its 20-year contract along with its refusal of environmental
authorisation for its three vessels at the Richards Bay, Ngqura and
Saldanha Bay docks.
NECOM has taken the view that a shorter-term period would
have to be looked at, potentially between five and 10 years.
By Andre van Wyk
ESKOM’S WOES WORSEN
Eskom’s financial losses and smothering debt levels are set to
balloon, making it more difficult for the power utility to stem
the tide of intensified blackouts across SA.
Eskom made a financial loss of R21.2-billion during 2022/3. Eskom
had budgeted for a R13.6-billion loss. Gross debt securities and
borrowings (or debt levels) increased to R439.1-billion in 2022/3
from R396.3-billion in 2021/2. The utility attributes the 11% increase
in its debt levels to the impact of the weak rand.
A broken business model
Eskom’s net revenue grew to R259.2-billion in 2022/3, up from
2021/2’s R247.6-billion. The utility cannot generate enough revenue
from its electricity tariffs approved by Nersa. In 2022, an increase
of 9.61% was granted to Eskom, lower than the 20.5% it asked for.
During 2022/3, Eskom spent R21.36-billion on diesel purchases
(more than double 2021/2).
Municipalities owe billions
Total invoiced municipal arrear debt increased to R58.5-billion at
year-end, up from 2021/2’s R44.8-billion. A total of 61 municipalities
has arrears debt of over R100-million each.
Eskom’s sales volumes were 3.1% lower than budgeted and
declined by 4.3% from 2021/2.
During 2022/3, Eskom received R21.9-billion in equity support
from government. Government has committed to taking over R254-
billion of Eskom debt in the next three years.
Daily Maverick
WIND FARM FOR SIBANYE-STILLWATER
AIIM consortium reached financial close on 89MW Castle Wind
Farm to supply renewable energy to Sibanye-Stillwater’s mining
operations via an Eskom wheeling agreement. The consortium
consists of African Infrastructure Investment Managers (AIIM),
African Clean Energy Developments (ACED) and Reatile Renewables.
This milestone marks the effective date of the PPA and the
commencement of construction. The energy will originate from
Castle Wind Farm (Northern Cape) and will result in energy cost
savings, increased energy security and decarbonisation benefits for
Sibanye-Stillwater.
This transaction will be the second private wind power wheeling
project in SA to have reached financial close. Rand Merchant Bank,
a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is the sole-mandated lead
arranger for the project.
THE PRESIDENCY BUDGET VOTE 2023/4
Delivered by President Ramaphosa
Progress has been made in implementing measures outlined in
the Energy Action Plan. The private sector can invest in electricity
generation projects of any size. More than 100 projects are at
various stages of development, representing over 10 000MW of
new generation capacity and over R200-billion investment. The
exponential growth of private sector investment in electricity
generation is proof that this reform is having a major impact.
The procurement of new capacity has been accelerated. Three
projects from the risk mitigation programme have entered
construction, with a further five projects expected to reach financial
close during this quarter. Project agreements have been signed
for 25 preferred bidders from Bid Window 5 and 6 amounting to
approximately 2 800MW, of which 784MW is already in construction.
In the coming months, the procurement of more than 10 000MW
of additional generation capacity will be initiated. Municipalities can
procure power independently. Several municipalities have embarked
on processes to procure additional power of up to 1 500MW.
Government is driving progress on the unbundling of Eskom
into separate entities for generation, transmission and distribution.
Significant progress has been made towards the establishment of
the national transmission company as an independent subsidiary
of Eskom.
Government is pursuing sweeping legislative reform and has
introduced the Electricity Regulation Amendment Bill, which
seeks to establish a competitive electricity market and support the
unbundling of Eskom.
Another key piece of legislation, the Energy Security Bill, will
soon be introduced to streamline the regulatory framework
and accelerate construction of renewable energy projects. Tax
incentives have been introduced to support the rollout of rooftop
solar for households.
Jobs must be protected in sectors of the economy that must
decarbonise to remain competitive.
Where it may be necessary to delay the decommissioning
coal-fired power stations temporarily to address electricity supply
shortfall, any decision will be informed by a detailed technical
assessment, the timeframe in which new generation capacity is
expected and the impact on SA’s decarbonisation trajectory.
Trade, Industry and Competition recently announced the
establishment of an energy resilience fund of R1.3-billion.
The value of projects currently in construction is over R300-billion,
including energy, water infrastructure and rural roads projects.
The pipeline of green hydrogen projects with a value of over
R300-billion is significant. Among these projects is the Boegoebaai
Green Hydrogen (Northern Cape) with a potential to create
thousands of jobs.
Two years ago, the Blue Drop and Green Drop water quality
monitoring systems were administered to monitor SA’s water
quality. This will enable stronger intervention in municipalities
that fail to meet the minimum standards for water service delivery.
Last year’s Green Drop report points to serious challenges in
municipalities when it comes to managing water resources. The
challenges in water provision highlight the broader challenge of
dysfunctionality in many municipalities.
NERSA: GREEN LIGHT FOR ESKOM
Nersa has announced its approval for Eskom’s plan to purchase 344.5MW new generation
capacity. Eskom can procure 75MW of new generation capacity from solar at Lethabo
Power Station (Free State) and 19.5MW (solar) at Sere Wind Farm (Western Cape) as well
as 100MW (solar) and a 150MW battery energy storage system at Komati Power Station
in Mpumulanga.
The generation capacity must be procured by Eskom through tendering procedures that
are fair and cost-effective. Nersa has approved the national free basic electricity rate of
172.76c/kWh for 2023/4, effective from July.
Business Report
4
5

NEWS & SNIPPETS
NEWS & SNIPPETS
ENERGY BLOCK EXEMPTIONS
The Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition has published
the Energy Users and Energy Suppliers Block Exemptions. These
exemptions facilitate collaboration between companies to address
electricity supply constraints, by allowing them to engage in
activities normally prohibited under the Competition Act.
“These exemptions will enable energy suppliers and energy users
to increase and optimise supply capacity, reduce the cost of energy
or improve the efficiency of energy supply, and secure backup or
alternative energy supply in order to minimise the effects of the
current electricity supply constraints,” Minister Ebrahim Patel said.
“Reforms in the competition law effected in 2019 provides for more
flexibility when circumstances warrant it. The block-exemptions have
been used during the pandemic and in crises such as the July 2021
unrest, to enable competitors to cooperate to address shortages
of stock or facilities. This will now also be available to companies to
address the energy challenges,” he added.
6
SOLAR SITE PROTECTS TREES
Renewable energy company, Scatec, was involved in a massive
Quiver tree planting and re-planting operation at their Kenhardt
site in the Northern Cape.
This started after they were awarded the project under the
RMIPPPP. The site is currently under construction – and once it
reaches completion will have a total solar capacity of 540MW,
battery storage capacity of 225MW/1, 140MWh, and provide
150MW of dispatchable renewable power under a 20-year Power
Purchase Agreement.
With Quiver trees being on the national flora red list, Scatec’s
main objective was to execute an operation to preserve the Quiver
trees on site – and ensure an increase of the plant species in the
local habitat.
Scatec had a huge role to play to ensure that they preserve the
branching succulent plants in the Kenhardt area.
The Quiver tree is known to grow slowly and is habitat specific
– found in areas with extreme weather conditions. Climate change
has not made things easier for Quiver trees, as they are struggling
to grow as abundantly as they did in years gone by.
“Our Environmental license in the area gave us a very clear
mandate to protect these trees while we work. Replanting these
trees was never going to be an easy process. Scatec partnered
with a specialist team that helped them navigate the process,” says
Scatec’s sub-Saharan Africa executive VP Jan Fourie.
For every tree that was relocated, an additional ten Quiver Trees
had to be planted. The Quiver tree was not an easy find. A nursery
that stocked the special trees was in the Western Cape (where the
Scatec team had to apply for a permit to transport the Quiver trees
over the provincial border).
To date, the Quiver trees are growing into these beautiful and
succulent trees. The pictures do not do them justice, you just
must see them in real life. “When you are next in the Kenhardt
area, be sure to drive by the Scatec site to witness the beauty and
appreciate the effort that the team put into replanting the Quiver
trees to conserve them,” says Fourie.
SAWEA CALLS FOR GRID OPTIMISATION
If SA is to add the much-needed 5GW of new capacity to the
grid each year, solutions are needed to optimise the existing
transmission infrastructure capacity. The employment of
multiple improved energy mechanisms is required, if another
failed REIPPP bid window is to be avoided, says SAWEA.
“We have been engaged in efforts to tackle the issues regarding
access to the grid and the unlocking of grid capacity since early
2022, whilst urging key stakeholders to prioritise the transmission
build. However, more than a year later, having reviewed the 2022/3
Grid Connection Capacity Assessment (GCCA) report, our industry
is faced with the reality that the areas of highest wind resource
potential in the country are either already depleted or close to
being depleted in terms of available grid capacity – a sobering
reality that was already known before the last public procurement
bidding round,” says Niveshen Govender, Chief Executive Officer
of SAWEA.
“Following the Bid Window 6 upset, when not a single wind
project advanced to preferred-bidder status, owing to grid
constraints in the Cape provinces, it has become increasingly
important to understand the methods that were used to allocate
the grid capacity ensuring fair and transparent processes, so that
we can ensure access for both private and public procurement,”
added Govender.
The grid allocation rules need to be finalised to provide clarity
to the market and ensure further delays in allocating capacity
to projects are reduced. Other short-term measures include the
addition of the Battery Energy Storage Capacity Bid Window, that
will add a capacity totalling 1 230MW in two bid windows this
year; and the exploration of co-locating renewable technologies
across wind and solar.
By pairing power plants, a single transmission connection
point can be used more effectively, matching renewable energy
generation profiles with energy demand. “Beyond the economics,
international examples of energy planning demonstrate that
co-location is a viable consideration if we are to optimise the grid.
This is simply because wind production peaks in the late afternoon
and continues throughout the night, which compliments solar
production during the day, hence we can expect that developers
will seriously consider this, especially as it offers feasible cost
reductions that will benefit the country,” concluded Govender.
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Waste management
The Extended Producer Responsibility schemes have begun diverting waste from
landfill sites. DFFE’s Recycling Enterprise Support Programme has supported
56 start-ups within the sector providing over R300-million in financial support,
creating 1 558 jobs and diverting over 200 000 tons of waste from landfills.
Marine living resources
DFFE intends to finalise the allocation of 15-year fishing rights to small-scale fishing
communities in the Western Cape by October 2023. This will enable a further 3 500
declared traditional small-scale fishers to participate in the ocean’s economy.
Climate change and air quality
SA’s mitigation and adaptation architecture is at an advanced stage. Cabinet has
approved a framework to determine emissions allocation to industrial sectors for
the 2023-2027 mandatory commitment period. DFFE is developing carbon budget
regulations that will address the processing of mitigation plans to be submitted
by industry. Besides assisting 44 district municipalities, DFFE is working with nine
provinces, to review their existing climate change plans to align with the draft
Climate Change Bill.
There is a project pipeline of 9 789MW for renewable energy applications
[2 899MW: solar, 6 890MW: wind]. These include battery energy storage systems
and associated transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Decision-making timeframes have been reduced from 107 to 57 days.
Grid capacity is a national priority to solve. DFFE is considering delays in
decommissioning aging coal-fired power stations.
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ENERGY
ENERGY
Decarbonisation is
not transactional:
it’s a long-term effort.
Stand out from the
DECARBONISATION CROWD
With the European Union aiming to cut emissions in half by 2030, the industrial sector is facing a
strong push to decarbonise. In this €350-billion market, there’s a wealth of value on the table.
BY KEARNEY CONSULTING
Climate change caused more than $170-billion in damages in
2021 alone. To avoid a full-scale climate catastrophe (and the
associated costs), one of the biggest challenges is transitioning
to a climate-neutral economy. The industrial sector has a central
role to play in achieving this goal. Driven by intrinsic motivators
8
along with regulations societal pressure and market dynamics,
industrial companies are pushing to decarbonise. In fact, their
decarbonisation efforts – and the results across all emission scopes
will be a prerequisite if they hope to stay competitive. In this article,
we tell you how to stand out from the decarbonisation crowd.
When considering direct and indirect owned emissions (scope 1 and
scope 2), the challenge is mostly an energy-related matter for many
industrial companies. For others, decarbonisation affects the core
product itself. Two examples:
Sugar industry. Most CO2 emissions are energy related. Natural
gas is used in combined heat and power plants for sugar extraction,
crystallisation and the drying of beet pulp. In addition to improving
energy efficiency, decarbonisation opportunities include the trade-off
of used natural gas with alternatives such as biogas or hydrogen and
electrification through large-capacity heat pumps or electric boilers.
Cement industry. CO2 emissions are rooted in the core product. About
two-thirds of emissions in the production process are the result of the
underlying calcination reaction. Up until now, alternative production
technologies have hardly yielded many significant results; emission
reductions have mostly been the result of operational improvements,
such as higher plant utilisation. However, although the sector has
been exploring innovative technologies, such as clinker substitutes.
This dichotomy has implications for the knowledge and resources
that industrial companies can deploy for decarbonisation. Many
companies acknowledge they have neither the knowledge nor the
resources required to get – and keep – the ball rolling. And that’s fair.
The decarbonisation challenge is complex and multifaceted. It ranges
from creating the required internal data transparency and monitoring
an array of regulatory developments, to the realisation of technical
solutions over many years and carefully reporting the impact of
decarbonisation efforts.
There is much to learn and a lot to do – so much so that companies
will have to consider a “make versus buy” decision. On one hand, the
companies for which decarbonisation is mostly an energy-related
matter tend to tilt toward the “buy” side and investigate partnering.
They actively look for external suppliers to support them in their
decarbonisation journey, provided that the suppliers bring expertise
that is not readily available in-house for less than it would cost to
build those capabilities from scratch.
On the other hand, companies where CO2 emissions are rooted in
the core product or where energy costs are a top driver for their total
cost, such as a process industry, tend to tilt more toward the “make”
side of the spectrum. For them, it makes sense to build significant
decarbonisation capabilities in-house since it is more important to their
business operation.
Of course, this “make versus buy” decision is not purely binary.
Decarbonisation-related activities are plentiful. A “make versus buy”
decision for each will result in an equilibrium that is probably in
between the two extremes (see figure 1).
The decarbonisation services supply market is still in an emerging
state, but it is evolving quickly. Many players in adjacent markets, such
as utilities, real estate managers and energy efficiency companies are
figuring out whether – and how – they will target this market. At the
same time, many innovative start-ups want to claim their slice of the
pie by entering the market with innovative technology solutions.
In summary, industrial companies are calling for support in their
decarbonisation journeys while the supply market for such support still
boasts significant untapped value. Therefore, if you want a winning,
profitable model in this attractive market, now is the time.
SET UP FOR SUCCESS
The decarbonisation journey is a multi-year undertaking that requires
companies to be highly dynamic considering three trends:
• Continuous innovation pushes the available technical solutions.
• The company itself is also likely to change in terms of the site
footprint, product portfolio and strategic priorities.
• Applicable regulations are rapidly evolving.
Moreover, this multi-year journey requires a plethora of specific
capabilities, including a sustainability strategy, carbon accounting,
technical solution implementation, investment financing, impact
monitoring and verification, compliance management as well as
Kearney Analysis
Figure 1: Companies will need to decide whether to make or buy their
decarbonisation solutions.
9

ENERGY
Decarbonisation is generally
important but specifically different.
reporting. As mentioned, industrial companies often choose to
partner with specialist suppliers on at least some of these specific
decarbonisation capabilities.
Managing these partnerships and the associated interactions
requires significant effort. While the large industrial companies often
have experience in managing complex partnerships and projects,
small and medium-size companies usually don’t. This implies a
significant decarbonisation execution risk. To mitigate the execution
risk, these companies look to simplify their interfaces with the
decarbonisation service provider. Enter decarbonisation-as-a-service
providers, which will offer a single interface to the decarbonisation
services market.
From our work in this decarbonisation services space, we see three
emerging business model archetypes (see figure 2):
• One Stop Shop. Providing all decarbonisation capabilities in an
integrated way.
• Integrator. Blending supply market capabilities in a single
interface to customers.
• Specialists. Offering spot capabilities with deep specialisation.
These are clear-cut archetypes. However, many companies will
pivot, transition or expand into this space. Therefore, we expect to
see more hybrid business models in the market. In such a model, a
decarbonisation services company will opportunistically develop
and perform some specialist capabilities while integrating others
via subcontracting. This integration can happen either in a
decarbonisation-as-a-service model or via a structured ecosystem
of specialists. Regardless of the chosen service model, there are
four common success factors:
• Nurturing long-term client relationships. Decarbonisation is
not transactional: it’s a long-term effort. Suppliers that are willing
to commit to the journey will prove more successful.
• Managing complex projects with multifarious stakeholders.
Decarbonisation touches many aspects and relative functions
at industrial companies, including commercial, operations,
finance and legal.
• Knowledge and innovation. Decarbonisation is a field in full
evolution. Suppliers must stay on top of new trends, regulation
and technologies.
• Customer centricity. Decarbonisation is generally important
but specifically different. Suppliers should seek positive network
effects among their customer base, though always respect the
specificity of their customers’ context.
Kearney Analysis
Decarbonisation-as-a-service
Figure 2. Three business model archetypes are emerging in the decarbonisation services market.
*Authors: Horst Dringenberg, Partner, Maria de Kleijn, Partner
and Thomas Vyncke, Founder, CARBON2ZERO. The authors
thank Maximilian Hermann, Thomas Peinsipp, Bernhard Pribyl-
Kranewitter, Annika Schmitz and Leonhardt Viebach for their
valuable contributions to this article.
10

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IDTechEx
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The highs & lows of
HYDROGEN
While previous periods of hype for the hydrogen economy have waned, significant capital, both
public and private, is now being spent on developing water electrolysis systems to produce
green hydrogen.
BY IDTechEx
Hydrogen atom
Sandia National Laboraties
Alkaline electrolyzers have long been used for industrial
applications. They are characterised by their low-capital costs
and long lifetimes. PEM electrolyzers are at an earlier stage
of commercialisation but are set to gain market share. They are
characterised by higher-power densities, output hydrogen pressures
and faster response times than alkaline systems. This makes them
better suited to utilising renewable power. SOELs are the youngest
electrolyzer technology. Operating at elevated temperatures above
700°C, they offer higher system efficiencies but are expensive,
can struggle with dynamic operation and improvements will be
necessary. Nevertheless, their higher efficiencies can play a role in
decreasing the levelised cost of the hydrogen while they also hold
IDTechEX
promise for producing syngas through the combined electrolysis of
H2O and CO2.
Key metrics for assessing the performance of an electrolyzer system
include efficiency, capital cost, response time and dynamic range,
hydrogen purity and pressure, lifetime and footprint. Ultimately,
one of the most important parameters is likely to be levelised cost
of hydrogen.
Hydrogen demand is expected to grow globally from both
incumbent markets (refining and ammonia production) as
well as from new markets such as in methanol, green steel
and transport applications. This increase in hydrogen production
and use is being driven by a growing desire to improve energy
security and by decarbonisation efforts. However, the hydrogen
produced must itself be low carbon.
What is green hydrogen?
Green hydrogen refers to the splitting of water into hydrogen and
oxygen via electrolysis in an electrolyzer. If renewable electricity
is used to power the electrolyzer then the hydrogen produced is
green hydrogen. Green hydrogen will have lower carbon emissions
associated with it than the hydrogen being produced today, most of
which comes from steam methane reformation or coal gasification.
HYDROGEN MARKETS
Hydrogen offers a route to decarbonising hydrogen production,
in turn various hard-to-abate sectors, such as steel manufacturing,
methanol production and certain modes of transport such as
heavy-duty vehicles, shipping or aviation. The primary end-uses for
hydrogen are in refining activities and ammonia production. These
are forecast to remain the key uses in the medium term.
Hydrogen offers a route to greater energy security by allowing
local production, and a reduction in their use via their replacement
of natural gas and coal for industries including steel, methanol,
construction and chemicals production. This is topical given the
volatility in natural gas prices and supply.
Green hydrogen accounted for

ENERGY
ENERGY
IDTechEx
Can hydrogen be COST COMPETITIVE?
The clean hydrogen market is poised for growth, driven by decarbonisation efforts and concerns around energy
security. Several ambitious roadmaps are being set out by different governments.
BY IDTechEx
The key challenge for green and electrolytic hydrogen is cost.
Green hydrogen is more expensive than grey, black and blue
hydrogen due to the relatively low cost of natural gas and low
energy use for hydrogen production. Hydrogen’s long-term cost
competitiveness is debatable. The high electricity consumption
and cost limit the widespread adoption of green or electrolytic
hydrogen. The water electrolyzer market is expected grow to over
US$120-billion by 2033.
help strengthen the case for green hydrogen. However, this also
highlights the need to utilise variable power sources, necessitating
additional energy storage systems to smooth out the power supply
or an electrolyzer system capable of operational flexibility.
Innovations in electrolyzer systems have a role to play. For
example, new electrolyzer cell designs that separate gas directly in
the cell could improve the dynamic operability of alkaline systems.
Having an electrolyzer system capable and safe to operate at partial
and variable loads will likely be key to the widespread success of
green hydrogen.
Order the report GREEN HYDROGEN PRODUCTION |
ELECTROLYZER MARKETS 2023-2033 | IDTechEx | [January 2023]
Socio-economic development
• Contribute towards South Africa’s emission reduction goals.
• Focus on decarbonising industrial sectors.
• Ensure integration of renewable energy.
• Incorporate non-financial criteria in procurement processes.
• Develop skills development and job creation within sector.
Local industrial capability and participation
• Develop skills and achieve localised industrialisation.
• Invest and implement R&D programmes.
• Understand the potential for industrialisation.
• Create partnerships.
• Drive the identified skills action plan.
Consider the need and role of a Just Transition
• Analyse and plan for a Just Transition.
• Quantify the commercial and economic impact and sustainability of
industrial sectors.
• Ensure appropriate skills development programmes.
GREEN HYDROGEN COMMERCIALISATION STRATEGY FOR
SOUTH AFRICA | Final report | [November 2022]
Newly developed catalyst that recycles greenhouse gases into ingredients
that can be used in fuel, hydrogen gas and other chemicals.
Cafer T. Yavuz, Kaist
Tyler Mefford and Andrew Akbashev/Stanford University
Estimates of green hydrogen costs under different electrolyzer capital and
operational cost scenarios.
A reduction in the capital cost of electrolyzer systems will help
to bring down the levelised cost of hydrogen. The industry expects
capex to come down as manufacturing capacity increases and
capabilities improve through greater levels of automation. The more
efficient a system is, the lower the energy consumption. Solid oxide
electrolyzers are the most efficient type and can be improved further
if waste heat can be utilised. Other key performance metrics for
electrolyzer systems include operating lifetime, output pressure and
purity, current and power density, start-up times, dynamic range and
minimum load levels.
The cost of electricity prices needs to drop. Further reductions
in the levelised cost of energy for solar and onshore wind would
This animation combines images of a tiny, plate-like catalyst particle as it
carries out a reaction that splits water and generates oxygen gas – part of a
clean, sustainable process for producing hydrogen fuel.
COMMERCIALISATION
STRATEGY FOR SA
The Green Hydrogen Commercialisation Strategy builds on the
strong foundation of the work undertaken by the Department of
Science and Innovation with respect to its HySA programme and
the publication of the Hydrogen Society Roadmap.
SA HYDROGEN STRATEGIC VISION.
Developing a globally competitive, inclusive and low-carbon
economy by harnessing South Africa’s entrepreneurial
spirit, industrial strength and natural endowments.
STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES
Export markets
• Secure long-term global market share and trade position.
• Strategically position SA as a preferred provider to key markets.
• Secure global market and national procurement programmes.
• Expedite an export pilot project.
• Progress international strategy.
Domestic markets
• Introduce supportive policies and a regulatory framework that
aids price parity to increase domestic demand.
• Support R&D, specifically on heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles.
• Show feasibility of hydrogen in hard-to-abate sectors.
Investment and finance
• Secure strong inflow of FDI and outflow of hydrogen exports.
• Establish a regulatory and market framework.
• Define a key set of “catalytic” infrastructure projects.
• Define government role and financial investment.
• Expedite private sector investment.
IDTechEx
FUEL FLEXIBILITY
paves path to HYDROGEN ECONOMY
Fuel cells could play a role in the future of power generation, enabling the transition from hydrocarbon fuels to
zero-emission fuels. It could be foolish to expect that an imminent abundant supply of hydrogen will fulfil all
demand soon, presenting an opportunity for the fuel agnostic, SOFC.
The fuel flexibility of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) offers a
competitive advantage over the currently dominant proton
exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC), which is limited to
operating on hydrogen.
While PEMFCs can only run on hydrogen, SOFCs run on multiple
fuels such as hydrogen, LNG, biogas, methanol, ammonia, e-fuels
and more. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is the most deployed fuel in
many applications, but it is not a long-term low-carbon solution due to
methane slip and energy-intensive cooling and re-gassing processes.
The utilisation of methane (CH4) produces both CO and CO2, while
using methanol removes the emission of CO. However, reduction in
An overview of the main fuel choices for solid oxide fuel cells, segmented by
carbon emissions.
emissions such as sulfur oxides, nitrous oxides and organics can still
be achieved with respect to coal-fuelled plants. Several fuels exist in
the zero/low carbon emission sector, including hydrogen, ammonia
and e-fuels.
The key issue with hydrogen is its low volumetric energy density
and storage temperatures of -263°C, which is intensive to reach and
maintain. Ammonia does not need carbon capture but requires new
bunker infrastructure and is highly toxic in a spillage.
Green ammonia is a derivative of green hydrogen, so an abundance
of green hydrogen must exist first. A by-product of methane is
carbon, meaning carbon capture is required for zero emissions, and
this can be problematic due to added cost and complexity. Methane
is the primary ingredient of LNG, the most deployed alternative fuel
with decades of infrastructure.
Methane is also susceptible to methane slip (boil-off methane),
a powerful greenhouse gas, while “e-methane” relies on carbon
predominantly from industrial sources, which must ultimately be
phased out.
Both ammonia and methane are widely transported by the sea
today. In contrast, hydrogen is not. At the same time, the former is
preferred over the latter due to the lack of emissions produced when
using ammonia in a SOFC.
In a future centred around the hyped hydrogen economy, PEMFCs
are expected to dominate the fuel cell market. However, SOFCs offer
interesting opportunities: their fuel cell flexibility, namely the ability
to operate on the fuel choices for both today and tomorrow, sees
SOFCs being positioned as a technology to enable a transition in
power production methods.
16
17

MOBILITY
MOBILITY
Toyota believes that
hydrogen is the catalyst for
energy decarbonisation.
Energy Observer Productions I Amélie Conty
TOYOTA FUEL-CELL TECHNOLOGY
opens new horizons for
The Toyota fuel-cell-powered Energy Observer boat docks in Cape Town in June 2023. This
state-of-the-art sustainability project demonstrates the adaptability of Toyota hydrogen fuelcell
technology.
Former racing catamaran turned ship of the future, Energy
Observer, has made waves on its seven-year odyssey around
the world as the first energy-autonomous hydrogen vessel.
Toyota, official partner of Energy Observer and an avid supporter of
their project from the start, specially developed a fuel-cell system
for the Energy Observer maritime application.
Energy Observer is an electrically propelled vessel of the future that is
operated using a mix of renewable energies and an on-board system
that produces carbon-free hydrogen from seawater. The operators of
the vessel are on a mission to meet people in 50 countries and 101
ports during their voyage, with an aim to prove that a cleaner world
is not only possible but that the innovations can open doors to new
sustainable energy systems. Their activities also demonstrate and
share potential solutions to champion an ecological and energy
transition – a challenge facing South Africa in particular.
18
Energy Observer in Svalbard.
SUSTAINABILITY
ENERGY OBSERVER
Toyota’s fuel-cell system, first introduced in the Toyota Mirai, the
world’s first mass-produced hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicle, proved
its value as a propulsion system on the road. However, the company
has more recently been exploring the use of its fuel cell in other
applications such as buses and trucks.
Toyota as a company is aiming to develop a hydrogen society and
to “establish a future society in harmony with nature,” as stated in its
The project successfully demonstrates
the adaptability of the Toyota fuel-cell
technology to a variety of applications.
Energy Observer Productions I Antoine Drancey
Energy Observer Productions I Amélie Conty
Solar and hydrogen technologies onboard Energy Observer.
OVERVIEW OF THE BOAT
Length
31m
Width
13m
Weight
30 tons
Height 14,85m
Draft 2.2m
Crew members 5
Average speed 5/6 knots
Energy Observer in Sweden.
The Energy Observer Foundation Exhibition village will be on display
at Jetty 2 at the V&A Waterfront harbour from 12 to 18 June. Entrance
is free and talks and videos about Energy Observer's Odyssey, the
17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and energy transition in
South Africa will take place daily.
Victorien Erussard, captain and founder of Energy Observer.
The Toyota Fuel Cell System integrated in Energy Observer.
BEYOND ZERO:
Achieving zero and adding new value beyond it as part of efforts to
pass our beautiful Home Planet to the next generation, Toyota has
identified and is helping to solve issues faced by individuals and
society, which Toyota calls “Achieving Zero”. Toyota is also looking
“Beyond Zero” to create and provide greater value by continuing to
seek ways to improve lives and society for the future.
For more information about Beyond Zero visit: https://global.
toyota/en/mobility/beyond-zero/
Environmental Challenge 2050 – this aligned perfectly with Energy
Observer’s mission and activities. From that common ground, the two
have worked closely together on how a hydrogen fuel-cell system
could be adapted to maritime applications.
The maritime-specific system was developed by Toyota Technical
Center Europe in a mere seven months. It required a redesign of
the Mirai’s system, followed by the build and installation of the
compact fuel-cell module. The project successfully demonstrates
the adaptability of the Toyota fuel-cell technology to a variety of
applications outside of land-based vehicles.
“We are proud of the association with Toyota and its fuel-cell
system, as used on our ocean passages and tested in the roughest
conditions. After seven years and nearly 50 000 nautical miles of
travelling, including three ocean crossings, the Energy Observer
energy supply and storage system is now very reliable. We believe
that the Toyota fuel-cell system is the perfect component for this,
industrially produced, efficient and safe. Being an ambassador for the
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), our mission is to promote
clean energy solutions and we share with Toyota the same vision for
a hydrogen society,” says Victorien Erussard, founder and captain of
Energy Observer.
The Toyota fuel-cell system has proven its benefits already for
many years in the first-generation Mirai, and into the second
generation zero-emissions vehicle revealed in South Africa earlier
this year, but more recently other applications such as buses and
trucks have been under development. Toyota believes that hydrogen
is the catalyst for energy decarbonisation and such technology
acceptance can accelerate modular fuel-cell solutions.
19

ENERGY
ENERGY
Boosting the growth of the South African
PPA market could alleviate pressure on
Eskom to supply demand.
• Reactive energy charges (c/kVArh) supplied more than 30% (0.96
power factor or less) of the kWh recorded during peak and standard
periods. The excess reactive energy is determined per 30-minute
integrating period and is accumulated for the month applicable
during the high-demand season.
COMMERCIAL
AND INDUSTRIAL
Small-Scale Embedded Generation
To achieve reliable and cost-efficient energy supply, commercial and industrial consumers are
looking for alternative sources of energy for their operations. However, careful consideration of
all the tariff components is necessary to determine the economic business case of small-scale
embedded generation.
Eskom
Eskom C&I customers with a notified maximum demand (NMD)
greater than 1MVA are typically on a time-of-use (TOU) tariff structure,
namely the Megaflex tariff, while municipal licensees apply their own
tariffs. All other customer segments who install small-scale embedded
generation (SSEG) are required to move to a TOU structure.
C&I customers who have installed grid-tied generation are moved
to the Megaflex-Gen tariff (>22 kVA connections). On the Megaflex-
Gen tariff, any excess energy fed into the grid that is not wheeled to
another Eskom customer is credited at the Gen-offset tariff. If energy
is wheeled to another Eskom customer (the off-taker), then the offtaker
is credited at the Gen-wheeling tariff. The Megaflex tariff varies
according to transmission zone, network connection size, maximum
instantaneous demand and time of use (hour and season).
Megaflex tariff components
• Fixed charges (R/month) to recover overhead costs and prices
that vary with customer-base size. These charges are based on
the sum of the monthly utilised capacity at each point of delivery
(POD) and administration charges.
• Transmission, network and distribution demand charges
(R/kW/month) to recover long-run marginal investments required
to meet peak demand. These charges are based on the supply
voltage, transmission zone and annual utilised capacity measured
at the POD at all time periods. Excess network capacity charges
are payable.
• Energy charges (R/kWh) recover variable costs to meet the
customer load. These are TOU differentiated active energy charges
including losses based on supply voltage and the transmission
zone of the customer. There are three TOU periods namely peak,
standard and off-peak.
• Ancillary service charges (c/kWh) based on the voltage of the
supply applicable during all time periods.
WEEKDAY TARIFF STRUCTURE
Eskom and CSIR
The Megaflex tariff incorporates three transparent cross-subsidies:
i. The affordability subsidy funded by Eskom’s direct industrial and
business customers and is calculated using the end-user’s total
active energy demand.
ii. The electrification and rural subsidy funded by Eskom’s direct
industrial and business customers as well as municipalities and is
calculated using the end-user’s total active energy demand.
iii. The urban low voltage subsidy funded by all Eskom’s customers
on urban tariffs that take supply at 66kV or higher. This cost is based
on the voltage of the supply and charged on the annual utilised
capacity measured at the POD applicable during all time periods.
The actual revenue split between variable and fixed costs was
determined in a cost-of-supply study (see figure 3) and demonstrates
Eskom’s financial risk to declining energy volume sales. The average
Figure 3. Eskom cost of supply and revenue share.
ENERGY CHARGE (R/kWh)
REPORT BY CSIR AND RES4AFRICA*
The commercial and industrial (C&I) market provides a double
opportunity for organisations by delivering them with costs
savings, long-term price stability and security of energy
supply, and allows for decarbonisation of their operations. The
electricity consumption from the C&I market segment however
has not grown at the same levels as other global markets due to
unreliable supply, in fact it has slightly decreased since 2010.
Official numbers of C&I installations and the equivalent capacity
is not available, however estimates have been pulled together from
different sources – placing the market size at over 1.15GW as of 2020.
Outside of developed countries, South Africa has the largest share of
companies actively sourcing renewable energy.
SA TARIFF STRUCTURES
Energy consumers either purchase electricity from Eskom or their
municipality. Municipalities buy electricity directly from Eskom and
redistribute it to end-users, adding their own distribution network
and retail costs as well as an allowable profit margin. There are
currently 266 local municipalities in South Africa, but not all have
distribution licenses.
Figure 1: Eskom total annual electricity sales volumes in GWh from 2010 to 2020.
Eskom
Figure 2. The Megaflex tariff. Notes: Megaflex Non-Local Authority tariff; transmission zone 66kV and 132kV. High season = Jun-Aug; low season =
Sep-May. Notes: Megaflex Non-Local Authority tariff; transmission zone 66kV and 132kV. High season = Jun-Aug; low season = Sep-May.
20
21

ENERGY
ENERGY
LARGE INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMER
LARGE COMMERCIAL OFFICE PARK
The charges levied for wheeling follow NERSA guidelines. Eskom
does not enter into long-term wheeling agreements at a fixed rate, so
C&I customers are subject to changes in their and tariffs structures.
Eskom and CSIR
Figure 4: Megaflex tariff energy costs for C&I customers based in Gauteng. Notes: Commercial customer - Megaflex energy charges 500V and

ENERGY
ENERGY
HIS Markit, Global Wind Energy Council, International Energy Agency, BloombergNEF, Kearney Analysis
How to navigate the headwinds in
CLEAN ENERGY SUPPLY CHAINS
The renewable energy supply chain is under immense pressure, with massive consequences for
project developers. The demand for equipment is surging for everything from wind turbines to
solar PV modules and hydrogen electrolyzers – and the supply gaps are widening.
BY KEARNEY CONSULTING*
The International Energy Agency predicts that global renewable
capacity will increase by about 2 400GW (75%) between
2022 and 2027. By 2030, this increase should reach between
500GW and almost 1 200GW per year. For comparison, the entire
global renewable capacity installed over the past decades stands
at about 3 000GW. The picture looks starker for hydrogen: hundreds
of gigawatts of electrolyzers are needed from today’s baseline of
near-zero demand.
Commodity markets are pouring even more fuel on the fire. Driven
by price spikes, oil and gas companies created almost $1-trillion in
free cash flow in 2022. This windfall provides the capital needed
to finance their own renewable ambitions, with some companies
targeting more than 100GW buildouts by 2030. Finally, the US Inflation
Reduction Act and Europe’s REPowerEU plan have set ambitious
targets and provided hefty incentives, such as a tax credit of up to
$3 per kilogram for low-carbon hydrogen, likely driving incremental
capacity additions across low-carbon energy sources.
SHIFTING SUPPLY CHAINS
So, is supply keeping up? In some cases, the answer is no or only
with significant disruption or changes to the market structure.
The solar photovoltaic (PV) market is looking the best so far, with
module production capacity outstripping demand by a factor of two.
However, shortages along the supply chain in critical raw materials
such as polysilicon are a risk, with available capacity only about 20%
above current demand – rendering the supply chain vulnerable to
unexpected factory shutdowns, as in Xingjang.
For batteries, concerns also loom on the raw materials side, with
forecasts estimating lithium shortages between 2024 and 2028.
On the final product, it is estimated that production capacity will
not meet supply in the short term, also driven by growing demand
for electric vehicles. Some automakers are already reacting with
vertical integration, a strategy that won’t be available to utilities.
The wind turbine supply chain is facing severe profitability troubles
despite high demand. Further consolidation is probable, despite
the already oligopolistic market structure with only five major
western original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) remaining. In
this environment, investing in extra capacity and innovation can be
challenging. As a result, we are seeing price increases and rationing
of production volumes. Access to some top-tier battery OEM
production capacity requires minimum order sizes of 1GWh. Access
to wind turbine blades now takes almost a year or longer. Electrolyzer
manufacturers have put capacity expansions on hold due to the lack
of final investment decisions (FIDs) with additional capacity taking at
least 18 months to ramp up.
Technologies with long-established cost curves have reversed their
decline. Li-ion battery packs cost 2% more in 2022 year-over-year,
after 12 years of consecutive decline at a rate of -18%. The wind turbine
prices of some manufacturers rose more than 30% from 2021 to 2022.
www.zeiss.com
Figure 1. The outlook for supply and demand differs depending on the type of renewable equipment. Note: PEM is polymer electrolyte membrane.
Segmented 3D volume of a polymer electrolyte fuel cell membrane
electrode assembly. Gas diffusion layer fibre weaves are visible in green
and magenta, microporous layer in blue, catalyst in yellow and electrolyte
membrane in red.
ADAPTING TO CHANGE
What will all this mean for renewable players, such as project
developers? Without adapting your supply chain approach, it will
be difficult to secure access to new technologies and volumes of
renewable equipment on time and at cost. In this environment, the
procurement approach will need to be tailored to the supply-demand
dynamics in the respective technologies and markets (see figure 1).
In wind energy, which is an already-concentrated industry, the
balance of power will likely shift further toward the supply side, driven
by additional OEM consolidation and more entrants fragmenting
the demand side, such as oil and gas companies. Similarly in solar
PV, additional concentration on the supply side is probable, while
the already heavily-distributed demand will continue to fragment.
The demand for ESG-conforming panels is surging in Europe,
with the EU proposing a directive for corporate sustainability due
diligence along value chains.
The dynamics are harder to assess for hydrogen electrolyzers, a
more nascent industry. In the short term, a few OEMs have already
committed to or executed capacity expansions. Therefore, they will
likely make up a large share of the supply potential in the next three
to five years, giving them some power to allocate scarce volumes
to the highest bidder. The demand side also has some power thanks
to early-mover benefits. Firm FID-backed order commitments or equity
investments are valuable to OEMs, allowing them to scale production
and potentially build a cost leadership position as they move down
the cost curve faster than other OEMs. Flagship projects with publicly
announced OEMs might also mobilise more customers. This demandside
benefit could wane in the medium term.
Supply and demand dynamics provide a valuable indicator for
24
25

ENERGY
ENERGY
Kearney Analysis
Technologies
with longestablished
cost curves
have
reversed
their decline.
Unlocking the
POWER OF THE SUN
Investing in solar
It has become popular to rely on inverter-only backup systems in the face of loadshedding,
however by adding solar to the system South Africans can save money.
Figure 2. The best way to counteract market forces will differ depending on the strategic goals of the renewable energy source. 1 Value and necessity of
strategic partnerships also in wind offshore are growing.
BY MENLO ELECTRIC*
which supply chain strategy project developers should pursue. While
demand power can be company-specific (think a multi-GW global
utility versus a 100MW independent developer), an industry average
view showcases the big picture. Offshore wind turbines and
electrolyzers have high demand and supply power. Meanwhile,
onshore wind and PV face the most adverse combination of market
forces from a buyer’s perspective, where demand power is low and
supply power is high.
The best way to navigate these market forces is highly dependent
on the respective technology and the underlying strategic goals on
the demand side as well as on the supply side (see figure 2).
• For PV modules, project developers put a clear focus on securing
supply in the right quality and time and at competitive cost.
In addition, ESG compliance, especially regarding forced
labour, is paramount. The potential for additional value creation
and project optimisation with suppliers is rather limited, and
innovation is not as important as in other technologies.
Consequently, pooling PV module demand into large bundles
or a global framework agreement is a better strategy.
• In wind energy, a close collaboration with an OEM can unlock
substantially higher value. OEMs can customise turbines and
support those already in early-stage project development to
maximise project value, enlarging the pie for both parties.
In onshore wind, with its heterogenous and relatively small
projects, a formal strategic partnership agreement is necessary
to enable portfolio-wide collaboration of both parties.
Here, the procurement approach can be customised by
regions, such as by entering a strategic partnership in Europe
but procuring project-by-project in the US. In offshore wind, the
sheer scale of projects allows utilities to get the most – and best
– out of OEM competencies, often without formal partnership
agreements. However, with the aforementioned market shifts,
strategic partnerships may be about to become valuable and
necessary also in offshore wind.
• Electrolyzers are a less-established technology in terms of
supply chain strategy compared with PV and wind turbines.
In procurement, the focus is a bit less on cost (as long as capex
comes down as forecasted in the next few years) and more
on the efficiency to require less renewable electricity. Simply
gaining access to equipment volume is a key concern as well.
Equity investments or technology partnerships are the go-tostrategy
for electrolyzers.
STRATEGIC SOURCING
The choice of the right procurement strategy is a highly individual
decision. It requires careful analysis of a utility’s specific situation
and strategic goals. Follow these steps to ensure an optimal fit of
the resulting procurement strategy:
• Conduct a thorough baselining to understand your cost, risk
and procurement process for each of technology.
• Identify and align your strategic objectives – both from a
procurement and a business perspective.
• Understand the supply market structure and trends, and
define your value proposition to the supply market.
• Develop the right sourcing strategy to enable growth, create
cost competitiveness and mitigate risks on the supply market.
A
significant drawback of relying solely on backup systems is
the inefficiency of charging with alternating current (AC) grid
power. Charging batteries using high voltage AC grid power
results in power losses. These losses occur during the conversion
process from AC to direct current (DC).
Solar PV modules charge the batteries directly, bypassing the
need for converting AC grid power. This direct charging from solar
energy eliminates the inefficiencies associated with grid charging,
resulting in higher overall system efficiency.
Another drawback is the limited use of backup systems during
non-loadshedding periods. When there is no loadshedding, the
backup system remains idle, not actively contributing to
reducing reliance on the grid or lowering electricity costs. This
underutilisation of the system means that the investment made
in the backup system does not provide continuous benefits. It
is essential to explore solutions that maximise the utilisation of
backup systems throughout the year.
By introducing solar PV panels into the system, you can begin to
harness the sun’s energy to power your electrical appliances and
extend the inverter battery’s lifespan for night-time or extended
loadshedding periods. This reduces your dependence on the grid
during loadshedding hours and ensures a more consistent power
supply. There are also added bonuses of lower electricity bills and a
more sustainable energy solution.
THOUGHT [ECO]NOMY
RESIDENTIAL SET-UP EXAMPLE
System consists of:
• 6 x 550W PV modules [R21 000]
• 250/100 Victron MPPT DC-DC charger [R16 000]
• Victron Multiplus-II 5kVA inverter/charger [R28 000]
• 1 x 5kWh lithium battery [R27 000]
The average baseload is around 500W, with a maximum draw of
4 000W on the output of the inverter. The daily energy consumption
ranges from 12kWh to 15kWh, excluding the gas geyser.
From the six 550W modules, an average of 11kWh to 13kWh per
day can be generated, depending on the time of year. Approximately
4kWh to 4.5 kWh is stored in the battery, while the remaining energy
powers the electrical loads.
By shifting lifestyle habits to use high-power-consuming devices
during daylight hours when solar energy is abundant, you can
minimise grid dependency. While the return on investment may
take around 10 years, it is important to note that the solar system
serves not only as an investment but also provides loadshedding
relief and convenience.
As South Africa continues to address its energy challenges, solar
presents a viable option to ensure a more sustainable and resilient
energy future.
When you are ready to embrace solar power and join the movement
towards a more reliable energy landscape, ask your installer about
sourcing solar panels from Menlo Electric South Africa, an official
distributor of JA Solar, Jinko Solar, Tongwei and Longi solar panels.
info.sa@menloelectric.com
*Authors: Hanjo Arms (partner), Oskar Schmidt (principal), Enzio Reincke (partner) and Daniel Handschuh (consultant).
Article courtesy of Kearney Consulting
WATCH VIDEO
greeneconomy/report recycle
HOW TO GET THE MOST OUT OF HYBRID INVERTERS | Home
energy storage solutions by Sungrow | Menlo Electric
Menlo Electric speaks to Sungrow expert Michal Klos about
energy systems, inverters, PV modules and related topics.
Get exclusive insights into the solar industry. Menlo Electric offers
free training to its clients. Participants will learn how to use Menlo
products, market trends market trends and meet leading experts in
the space training is conducted by both Menlo experts and guests. On
completion, a certificate is issued to verify participants' commitment to
professional development.
TIPS TO MAXIMISE SAVINGS
Invest in energy-efficient appliances. To reduce overall energy demand
and augment the effectiveness of your solar system.
Opt for LED lighting. Replace traditional bulbs with energy-efficient LED
lights as they consume consume less energy and have a longer lifespan.
Take advantage of time-of-use pricing. Schedule high-energy-consuming
activities, such as laundry or dishwashing, during off-peak hours.
Monitor and manage energy usage. Install an energy monitoring and
management system to track and analyse your energy usage. This helps
identify areas where energy consumption can be reduced and optimise
the efficiency of your solar system.
* Written by Arno Odendaal, technical sales, Menlo Electric South Africa.
26
27

Battery energy
storage powered
by renewable energy
is the future, and it
is feasible in South
Africa right now!
Sodium-sulphur batteries (NAS ® Batteries),
produced by NGK Insulators Ltd., and
distributed by BASF, with almost 5 GWh
of installed capacity worldwide, is the
perfect choice for large-capacity stationary
energy storage.
A key characteristic of NAS ® Batteries is the
long discharge duration (+6 hours), which
makes the technology ideal for daily cycling
to convert intermittent power from renewable
energy into stable on-demand electricity.
NAS ® Battery is a containerised solution,
with a design life of 7.300 equivalent cycles
or 20 years, backed with an operations and
maintenance contract, factory warranties, and
performance guarantees.
Superior safety, function and performance are
made possible by decades of data monitoring
from multiple operational installations across
the world. NAS ® Battery track record is
unmatched by any other manufacturer.
Provide for your energy needs from renewable
energy coupled with a NAS ® Battery.
PREPARING THE WAY
for a solar PV plant
Gqeberha in the Eastern Cape will see construction starting on an exciting new
solar energy plant later this year and SRK Consulting, South Africa is among
the technical partners working to make this project a reality.
BY SRK CONSULTING
According to Brent Cock, principal engineering geologist
at SRK’s Gqeberha office, the company has conducted a
geotechnical investigation of the site where the 50MW
photovoltaic plant will be located. The project is on a 100-hectare
site on the western outskirts of Gqeberha between Bridgemeade
and Greenbushes. An interpretive geotechnical report has been
prepared and submitted to the co-developers, RAW Renewables and
Natura Energy.
“In a project like this, it is important to test the subsurface
geotechnical and geological conditions, including the suitability
of on-site material for engineering layer works,” says Cock. “We
were also asked to investigate the excavatability of the site, as
well as groundwater and seepage conditions.” The study checked
for any problematic soils and looked at foundation conditions
to make appropriate recommendations for the project’s design
and construction.
“We excavated 24 test pits across the site with a 30-ton tracked
excavator, to depths ranging from 0.9 metres (m) to 3.9m below
current ground level – so that we could expose and analyse the ground
profile,” he says. “We also undertook dynamic probe super heavy
(DPSH) tests to assess the in-situ consistency, which showed refusal
occurring at depths of 1m to 2.4m.”
Wenner vertical electric sounding (VES) tests were conducted at
17 locations, with two perpendicular soundings at each of the
selected positions sharing the same centre position. “Samples of
disturbed soil were collected from representative soil horizons and
tested by an SRK-approved soil testing laboratory. This gives us insight
into aspects such as the particle size distribution, including clay content
where it occurs, as well as moisture content, thermal resistivity and
aggressiveness towards buried concrete and steel,” Cock explains.
The presence of ferruginisation in the terrace gravels – where the
gravel particles have either been stained/coated, zones within the
layer indurated (hardened) by iron oxide or a combination of both –
indicates that there are sections of the site where water perched on
the underlying bedrock in the past. A 2:1 paste of soil and distilled
ENERGY
Brent Cock, SRK
Consulting, South Africa.
water was tested according to the Basson Method to determine
whether the ground is aggressive towards buried concrete and
corrosive towards steel,” he says.
Attention was paid to the presence of reworked residual clayey
silt, residual shale and shale bedrock as these are not considered
suitable construction material. “Disturbing these horizons is not
recommended as recompacting the material is difficult, particularly
if wet,” Cock adds.
The site was deemed to be underlain by competent founding
material, typically medium-dense sand and gravel with occasional
very stiff clayey silt. “Both piled and concrete plinth foundations
will be suitable for the support of the PV panels.” He added that
where materials of variable consistency are present on a site, it is
often economical to pre-drill percussion holes to the required depth
– to provide both bearing and uplift – and then backfill the holes with
suitable soil, after which piles can be driven into them.
The Parsons Power Park project is aimed at the commercial and industrial
market and will produce competitively-priced electricity for sale to large
power users connected to the Nelson Mandela Bay municipal grid.
SRK excavated 24 test pits across the site to assess the ground profile.
Contact us right away for a complimentary
pre-feasibility modelling exercise to find
out how a NAS ® Battery solution can
address your energy challenges!
info@altum.energy
www.altum.energy
Altum Energy:
BASF NAS ® Battery Storage Business
Development Partner – Southern Africa
(Left) The depth to bedrock, albeit variable, is typically shallow across the site. (Right) The thickness of the gravel material is variable across the site with thicker
zones considered preferred borrow areas.
29

ENERGY
ENERGY
Reducing the cost of
WIND TURBINE FOUNDATIONS
Non-linear finite element analysis can save up to 30% in steel reinforcement costs for concrete
structures in wind turbine foundations. Sourcing materials for a remote location is logistically
complex, adding significantly to the total project cost.
BY ZUTARI
While non-linear finite element analysis (NL-FEA) is not
intended as a mainstream design solution, it is ideal for
once-off structures like wind turbine foundations. Given
the large number of renewable energy projects South Africa plans
to have running within the next couple of years, optimising these at
the design stage will fast-track the rollout and reduce costs.
A standard foundation contains about 120kg of reinforcement
per cubic metre of concrete, equating to about R1.5-million of
reinforcement per foundation. Using NL-FEA design to reduce
the reinforcement per foundation by up to 30% for a wind farm of
30 wind turbines equates to a staggering R13.5-million saving,
plus a significant reduction in the carbon footprint.
“We are trying to be more accurate in looking at prestressed or
reinforced concrete structures to reduce the project risk. The result
is considerable savings for both client and contractor,” says Professor
Pierre van der Spuy, associate, Zutari.
Conventional finite element analysis (FEA) packages operate in the
linear-elastic regime of concrete and other materials. On the other
hand, NL-FEA develops accurate material models for concrete that
consider softening post-yield until ultimate failure occurs.
“Rather than being conservative in our approach towards concrete
structures, we aim to be more accurate,” highlights Prof van der Spuy.
Concrete is a non-linear material that resists tension but endures
compression. Therefore, capturing its true behaviour as a material is
difficult with conventional FEA packages.
“By adopting NL-FEA instead, we can utilise the material’s true
properties in a way that cannot be done otherwise in a linear method
or through hand calculations, both methods that err on the side of
caution,” says the professor.
NL-FEA dives into the heart of concrete, presenting opportunities
in other areas like forensics. “Fortunately, concrete structures do not
collapse that often. In such situations, we can look at the behaviour of
a specific part of a structure and achieve much more accurate results
Khobab Wind Farm.
Second base pour at Excelsior wind farm.
Concrete is a non-linear
material that resists tension
but endures compression.
than with standard methodologies,” he adds.
It is even possible to apply NL-FEA to other concrete-intensive
infrastructures such as dam walls, which typically have heat problems
as the concrete hydrates. “The software even allows us to model
cooling pipes in concrete.” Regarding wind turbine foundations,
NL-FEA design can be used to tweak the geometry so that any heat
build-up is dissipated toward the edges.
“It is a bit more effort from the design perspective, but the benefit
is so vast from a construction perspective that additional design costs
are easily offset.” Zutari is not reinventing the wheel, as a European
company is already using the method for wind turbine foundation
design. “We are bringing this methodology to the local market as an
affordable design option with significant benefits.”
Arc Innovations working on a base at Perdekraal Wind Farm.
Arc Innovations Arc Innovations
Jeffery’s Bay Wind Farm in the Eastern Cape.
The PRIVATE OFFTAKE MARKET
is leading towards a
LIBERALISED ENERGY SYSTEM
South Africa’s renewable energy market continues to evolve while
growing significantly, demonstrating that the industry is maturing. We
are witnessing the liberalisation of the energy market moving towards a
sustainable wind sector, says SAWEA.
BY SAWEA*
The renewable energy industry has witnessed significant changes
this last year, resulting in the market’s transition from being
one with a single offtaker (Eskom) to an open model, brought
about by the removal of the licencing requirement for generation
plants over 100MW as liberalisation mechanisms promulgated into
law by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE).
With more renewable-energy projects being introduced through this
intervention, it will significantly contribute to the reduction of carbon
emissions in line with our Nationally Determined Commitments.
“There is a clear indication of a changing energy landscape
through policy interventions that promote a green pathway to
energy security, which have come about because of our country’s
need for energy security and commitment to decarbonise. The
private off-taker market model is very different to the public
programme and together, these two structures will allow for the
procurement of new capacity to meet the needs of the country, and
to facilitate the implementation of the targeted energy mix,” says
Niveshen Govender, SAWEA CEO.
This shift offers flexibility and allows for private entities to
accelerate the reduction of their carbon footprint, further attracting
new investors to renewable energy. The structure of Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs) for the private offtake market will be viewed
* South African Wind Energy Association
Niveshen Govender, CEO
of SAWEA.
differently to the conventional Renewable Energy Independent
Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) PPA structure.
“Tariffs in the private PPA market will be determined by bilateral
negotiations between willing buyers and willing sellers, creating
an open-market mechanism that will lead to IPPs approaching
commercialisation differently,” adds Govender. “While there is an
argument for the standardisation of PPAs, the allocation of risk
is a concern and will be approached differently, depending on
the project conditions. Contributing factors to future tariffs could
include inflation, the cost of logistics and shipping, global changes
to raw material and production costs amongst others. This may lead
to an unintended imbalanced market shift between established
and new IPPs competing on scale and price.”
To date, the country has procured 3 442MW of wind energy plants
through the established public procurement programme, with a
further 984MW of wind energy projects having NERSA registrations for
private procurement. There’s a potential pipeline of at least 4 000MW
as bid in Bid Window 6 for public procurement and 15 000MW as
indicated by the DMRE for private procurement. When considering
South Africa’s long-term energy planning, both private and public
markets are required to significantly increase the penetration of
renewable energy towards a sustainable energy transition.
30
31

MOBILITY
MOBILITY
Zeiss Microscopy
MINERAL SUPPLY
CONSTRAINTS
are LOOMING
The rapid increase in EV sales during the pandemic has tested the resilience of battery supply
chains and Russia’s war in Ukraine further exacerbated the challenge. Prices of raw materials such
as cobalt, lithium and nickel have surged.
BY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY*
Unprecedented battery demand and a lack of structural
investment in new supply capacity are key factors. Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine created pressures because Russia supplies
20% of global high purity nickel. Average battery prices fell by 6%
to USD132 per kilowatt-hour in 2021, a slower decline than the 13%
drop the previous year. Given the current oil price environment the
relative competitiveness of EVs remains unaffected.
Today’s battery supply chains are concentrated around China, which
produces three-quarters of all lithium-ion batteries and is home to 70%
of production capacity for cathodes and 85% of production capacity
for anodes (both are key components of batteries). Over half of lithium,
cobalt and graphite processing and refining capacity is in China.
Europe is responsible for over one-quarter of global EV production,
but it is home to very little of the supply chain apart from cobalt
processing at 20%. The US has an even smaller role in the global
EV battery supply chain with only 10% of EV production and 7% of
battery production capacity.
Both Korea and Japan have considerable shares of the supply
chain downstream of raw material processing, particularly in the
highly technical cathode and anode material production. Korea is
responsible for 15% of cathode material production capacity, while
Japan accounts for 14% of cathode and 11% of anode material
production. Korean and Japanese companies are also involved in the
production of other battery components such as separators.
Mining generally takes place in resource-rich countries such as
Australia, Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and is handled
by a few major companies. Governments in Europe and the US have
32
bold public sector initiatives to develop domestic battery supply
chains, but most of the supply chain is likely to remain Chinese through
2030. For example, 70% of battery production capacity announced for
the period to 2030 is in China.
Additional investments are needed in the short term, particularly in
mining, where lead times are much longer than for other parts of the
supply chain.
Digital material simulation to map diffusion behaviours in an NMC
lithium-ion battery cathode.
Zeiss Microscopy
The supply of some minerals such as lithium would need to rise
by up to one third by 2030 to match the demand for EV batteries.
For example, demand for lithium – the commodity with the largest
projected demand-supply gap – is projected to increase sixfold to
500 kilotonnes by 2030, requiring the equivalent of 50 new averagesized
mines.
There are other variables affecting demand for minerals. If current
high commodity prices endure, cathode chemistries could shift
towards less mineral-intensive options. For example, the lithium iron
phosphate chemistry does not require nickel nor cobalt but comes
with a lower-energy density and is better suited for shorter- range
EVs. Their share of global EV battery supply has more than doubled
DOWNLOAD REPORT
3D rendering of an intact lithium-ion battery.
*This article is an excerpt from the report GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK 2022 | Securing supplies for an electric future | International Energy Agency | [2022].
THOUGHT [ECO]NOMY
since 2020 because of high mineral prices and technology innovation,
primarily driven by an increasing uptake in China.
Innovation in new chemistries, such as manganese-rich cathodes
or even sodium-ion, could further reduce the pressure on mining.
Recycling can also reduce demand for minerals. Although the impact
between now and 2030 is likely to be small, recycling’s contribution to
moderating mineral demand is critical after 2030.
EV BATTERY SUPPLY CHAIN | Trends, risks and opportunities in a fast-evolving sector | Fitch Solutions
County Risk & Industry Research | [December 2021]
Companies have taken various actions to secure their EV battery supply chains. EV automakers are
investing heavily into the localisation of their supply chains. By offering them a nearby supply of lithiumion
batteries (LiBs), local gigafactories will reduce firms’ dependency on foreign suppliers and the
downside risks ingrained in global supply chains.
greeneconomy/report recycle
This is particularly evident in the midstream as of November 2021, there is a total of 145 EV battery factories
that are either operating or undergoing construction across 28 markets. This includes 51 construction
projects in Europe, totalling 1 230GWh, and 29 in North America at 488.2GWh.
These projects are key enablers in the localisation of EV battery supply chains. Localisation is occurring
upstream with automakers and EV battery manufacturers employing various strategies to develop local
supplies of CRMs near manufacturing sites.
Renewable energy should become a major pull-factor for EV battery manufacturers in the near term.
Battery manufacturing is capital and energy-intensive process – it therefore behoves firms to produce
in markets with abundant access to affordable renewable energy to secure funding (given the growing
importance of ESG in investment decision-making) and to ensure the sustainability of EVs. Consequently,
we the primary pull factor for EV battery manufacturers (outside of government support) will shift from
labour cost/availability to renewable energy cost, availability and sustainability. This is because automakers, and their large commercial
clients, have put in place their own sustainability strategies which will place increased pressure on their component suppliers to become more
sustainable. This will include sourcing ethically produced materials, using renewable energy and reducing carbon footprints along their own
supply chains.
Recycling presents several upside risks to the EV supply chain. By enabling automakers to re-use the CRMs in EV batteries, recycling
offers an affordable, reliable and local supply of CRMs, which tapers automakers’ exposure to supply chain risks and reliance on the mining industry
for regular supplies of expensive metals. Recycling is also an attractive process, particularly to governments and private sector firms, as by diverting
LiBs away from landfills recycling contributes to an organisation’s sustainability efforts.
33

ENERGY
IT’S TIME TO LOOK IN THE MIRROR
and ask ourselves if we really care about our planet
Let’s take a moment and reflect on the energy crisis in this country. We are hovering around stage 6
loadshedding at the time of writing this, and there are fears that it will get worse during winter.
BY REVOV*
Simply put, we don’t have enough energy to power our faltering
economy. That’s the one side of the coin. On the other side,
we find ourselves in a world that is under increasing pressure
to reduce carbon emissions. Make no mistake, our country will
pay the price in terms of international trade unless we step up
and honour our renewable energy obligations.
However, there is a third side to this coin – the rim. And the rim
of this coin is not defined by either the pressure of supply or the
pressure to avoid losing out on international trade. It is defined by
the ethical responsibility of doing the right thing. We must start
caring about the planet.
Around the world, and especially in this country, people are quick
to dismiss the “green agenda”. Let’s take a moment to reflect on how
this plays out in South Africa.
On a national level, we are being told that we don’t have the luxury
to worry about renewables because there is an urgent energy crisis to
fix. The solution, we are told, lies in ships burning gas off our coastline,
and a re-investment in our notoriously unreliable and dirty coal power
stations.
On a personal level, we hear that we don’t have the luxury to worry
about the lowest carbon footprint energy backup solutions because
we must keep the lights on as cost-effectively as possible. This
inevitably leads to people using generators or battery systems made
from inferior chemistry, or from the right chemistry but without much
thought going into the carbon footprint of the battery.
Worrying about whether we will have a planet in a generation’s
time is certainly not a luxury. It is the absolute crux of the point.
This is the radical mindshift that’s required. It is time more South
Africans stood up for the environment. If anyone needs to be
reminded just how dire the situation is, do yourself a favour and visit
the Human Impact Lab’s Climate clock. We have eight years left until
the dominoes fall one by one.
It is the absolute crux of the point.
We must start caring
about the planet.
Remember the chimney collapse at Kusile? To rush the unit back
into operation by the end of this year, a host of environmental standards
(such as removing dangerous chemicals from the byproduct) have
been waived – all in the name of reducing loadshedding. Fair
enough, but does the prospect of acid rain on innocent people in
Mozambique not keep you awake at night? It should.
A common refrain in South Africa is that renewables cannot
produce the amount of power we need. Renewables really can
generate power – and large amounts to boot. Not only will it go a
long way towards solving the energy crisis, but it will be clean and
more reliable.
In one year, Vietnam’s ambitious and forward-looking rooftop
solar programme added 9.3GW of electricity to the country’s
energy supply. Today, because they did not invest fast enough in
transmission infrastructure at the same time, they must put a lid
on the sheer amount of power being generated. Don’t let anyone
tell you renewables can’t produce enough electricity: regulations
and an outdated mindset is what stops renewables from generating
enough electricity.
We simply must do the right thing. Renewable energy, backed up
with 2nd LiFe battery technology – with as close to a zero-carbon
footprint as possible, and which fills a crucial spot in the circular
economy as it solves what to do with replaced electric vehicles’
batteries instead of dumping them in landfills – ensures we have
an almost endless supply of energy storage capacity waiting to be
put to use.
It just takes bravery.
* Written by Lance Dickerson, MD at REVOV.
35

MOBILITY
MOBILITY
The value of
MICROMOBILITY
FOR AFRICAN CITIES
1
skateboards, Segways, cargo bikes and electric pedal assisted
(pedelec) bicycles.
e-Micromobility vehicles are powered by green energy and their
batteries are charged by solar panels. Over the years, e-micromobility
vehicles have seen major advancements which include fastcharging
batteries with increased performance and decreasing
cost. Innovations in mobile computing enable micromobility to be
a shared mode of transport which can be booked using apps on
connected smartphones.
This economy model is an incentive to bring about modal shift as
it encourages people to move out of their private cars to use shared
micromobility services. Shared services also provide the opportunity
for transit integration over the city.
Micromobility is aimed at serving short distance travel in cities
where most car trips are less than 8km mainly in the last mile 1 . There
is a necessity to disrupt high private vehicle use for short distance
travel in cities as this causes congestion and contributes to high
carbon emissions. Governments and local authorities can articulate
system-wide benefits of micromobility such as efficiencies and
emission-savings related to moving people around. There is the
increased access to mobility as a public service in local areas and
between regions of a city.
In supply chain management and transportation planning, the last mile is the last leg of a journey comprising the movement of people and goods from a transportation hub to a destination.
Cities around the world need systems and technologies to improve public transit ridership,
improve city congestion, encourage rideshare systems and reduce dependence upon fossil
fuel-powered vehicles especially for single riders. The move towards micromobility has become
a hot topic.
A white paper for the Rosebank e-Micromobility Pilot Project by CityConsolidator.Africa and Mobility Centre for Africa | [April 2023]
Micromobility is a call to collaborate
for the common goal of transforming
burgeoning African metropolises.
C
ities across the globe are on leveraging technology to increase
sustainability and to transform their municipalities around
improved transit flow. The benefits for residents of these smart
cities will be better traffic flow as well as having practical options to
get to destinations regardless of their ability to walk, bike or drive
and much more. The by-products of doing this successfully is that
city residents and users benefit from cleaner air and convenient
options for moving themselves and their goods around. Improving
the lives of citizens while simultaneously benefiting the municipality
in reducing traffic congestion and vehicle emissions is the goal of the
renewed focus on mobility in general and micromobility.
Globally, micromobility solutions are surging in popularity as
owning a vehicle in many urban areas can be impractical, and relying
on schedule-based public transportation is not always convenient.
Between the cost of vehicle ownership, rising insurance costs and a
lack of convenient parking, many residents are opting to not purchase
a traditional car.
Notably, cities like Barcelona (Spain); Los Angeles, Oakland, San
Francisco and New York City (USA); Paris (France) and many others
have already experienced significant micromobility market growth or
have performed important pilot projects.
It has become critical to explore what value this trend and these
emerging modes of transport have for African cities. Africa is in dire
need for modern infrastructure developments that reduce carbon
emissions while boosting economic growth and job creation.
36
While the world is making strides in adopting the use of clean
energy, the African transport sector still relies substantially on
fossil fuels. And many African city governments, alongside state or
provincial governments are tasked with collaborating to transform
their burgeoning metropolises.
Micromobility is seen as a potential solution to moving people
more efficiently around cities, an opportunity to match local transport
modes to need and develop physical infrastructures that offer options
for Africans to move around. Focusing on micromobility offers part
of the solution to African transportation sector challenges as it is a
narrative of change through innovation, associated with lower carbon
footprint and energy efficiency. In the African context, there is still a
search for how this focus on mobility can also contribute to addressing
poverty, unemployment and inequality.
However, in the current absence of complete smart micromobility
ecosystems and supportive policy, African cities show slow adoption of
this new mode of transport which has already gained vast momentum
in most global metropolises.
WHAT IS MICROMOBILITY?
Whereas micromobility captures an array of lightweight vehicle
types that generally have mass of less than 500kg, speed lower
than 25km/h and are operated by one person, e-Micromobility
vehicles specifically have motorised powertrains and are electric.
These include standard bicycles, e-bikes, electric scooters, electric
BENEFITS FOR THE USER
• Renting a micromobility vehicle is more cost-effective than
purchasing and maintaining a full-sized vehicle. Driving for
the development of micromobility in a city creates the
legal environment for freeing up citizens’ revenue. Viewing
mobility as a service is critical to bring affordability to moving
people and their goods around in African cities. Mobility as a
service through micromobility vehicles creates new jobs such
as drivers, equipment suppliers, vehicle maintenance as well
as repair and battery swapping businesses electrification
of micromobility is developed to scale this greener mode
of transport.
• Globally, the micromobility model has shown itself to be
extremely sustainable, especially as e-scooters, the internet of
things (IoT) and edge computing technologies evolve.
• A micromobility network is highly efficient when compared to
other public transportation solutions. Once a network has been
implemented, a city can reduce the burden on other types of
public transit.
• In developed economies, convenience is represented as a
micromobility device’s availability for rent on many city street
corners, for example, rental bikes or scooters.
Dungs, J. 2021. Electric Micromobility: how to cut emissions, create jobs and transform urban transport.
International Energy Agency (IEA). Tracking Transport 2020 Report. 2020.
Locke, J. What is Micromobility and What is the Market for Developers? DIGI; [20 March 2022].
Sellmansberger, L. Boda-Bodas: Kampala’s Most Efficient Form of Transportation, for Better or for Worse. Kiva: KF19.
Sengül, B. and Mostofi, H. 2021. Impacts of E-Micromobility on the Sustainability of Urban Transportation – A Systematic Review. Applied Sciences.
VALUE IN AFRICAN CITIES
Micromobility provides the opportunity for transit integration
and for transforming ailing and constrained transport networks
as well as movement infrastructure in African cities. Repairing,
reinvesting and building more robust transport networks and
movement infrastructure in the last mile is where most African
cities require support.
As an emerging focus of transport planning, e-micromobility
can expand the view of mobility as a service and transforming
African cities to be more responsive to prevailing challenges.
This can be done with an ecosystem that makes operating
e-micromobility vehicles economically viable through supportive
legislation and policies developed in collaboration with the private
sector.
The task falls in the mandate and ambit of city and local
authorities alongside state or provincial governments. In most
contexts, one organ of state cannot unlock the benefits of
micromobility, e-micromobility and mobility as a service alone or
in isolation. Thus, micromobility is a call to collaborate for the
common goal of transforming nascent African municipalities and
serving citizens with mobility options enabled by government and
provided by the private and informal sectors.
37

MOBILITY
e-Micromobility can
DRIVE SA CITIES INTO THE FUTURE,
starting in Rosebank, Joburg
While other countries are leading the charge with electric vehicles and renewable energy,
South Africa languishes in a power crisis and EVs on a mass scale seems like a pipe dream.
BY ANDILE SKOSANA, CITYCONSOLIDATOR.AFRICA
The revolution is coming and South Africa will have no choice
but to keep up. The ideal is a country, and cities, that are built
around sustainability and e-mobility, and, we would strongly
argue, e-micromobility. But the question is how do we get there?
This is how the Rosebank e-Micromobility Pilot Project was born
– a small public-private partnership that goes down to the most
granular level. Fifteen electric delivery bikes working within the
Rosebank Management District precinct, sharing the same solarpowered
charging kiosk that doubles as a battery-swapping centre.
But why e-bikes, why e-micromobility? South Africa’s roads are
built for cars and trucks. It would be no exaggeration to proclaim that
they are unsafe for e-bikes. Despite the proliferation of delivery bikes
in our suburbs. However, this is where we are, not where we want to
be. It should not be that one 75kg person starts up a two-ton internal
combustion vehicle to travel 3km to buy a litre of milk. Two-wheelers
take up less space, they are more environmentally friendly, more
manoeuvrable, more cost-effective and ultimately quicker because
of their convenience. Most importantly, they are more inclusive in
bringing more people into mobility generally. Introduced sustainably,
an e-micromobility ecosystem will make for friendlier streets.
Delivery bikes present a solid anchor point from which to enter
the e-micromobility discussion. Since Covid-19, e-commerce has
skyrocketed and will grow by 40% through 2025. This is one of the
only growing segments in the economy now, and yet there is policy
silence around the use of delivery e-bikes in cities. Where should they
park? What are the rules for training drivers? What are the set standards
and regulations? None of these questions can be answered, yet these
e-bikes are integral to our suburban and inner-city lives. There needs
to be rigorous thinking and planning around influencing policy
for the sector because we can shape the growth of the sector to
deliver convenience to other parts of the city and even the townships.
The pilot project talks directly to this glaring need. If we can build a
viable and safe e-micromobility ecosystem for delivery bikes, the next
step is to add commuter and personal recreational mobility to the
same ecosystem.
A project like this cannot exist without massive buy-in. The private
sector-led project has the support of the Rosebank Management
District, Transport Authority Gauteng, the City of Johannesburg
represented by transport, development and planning, the JRA
and the Smart Cities office. The Gauteng Department of Economic
Development is interested in issuing riders from Alexandra. The
private sector has been equally welcoming in the form of secondlife
storage battery business REVOV, SeeSayDo, SolidGreen, Mzansi
Aerospace Technologies as an accelerator, and Evo Motors will
provide e-bikes and Green Riders e-bikes and training. The list of
stakeholders grows daily.
The outcome will be an applied research case study that delves
into metrics to do with every aspect of the ecosystem, as well as
concept notes to influence policy. Gauging the performance of
the pilot will generate insights into e-bike and rider performance,
delivery metrics, carbon savings and much more. The concept
notes will include submissions to support the Transport Authority
Gauteng’s 2030 Smart Mobility strategy, a concept note on a green
mobility credentials and universally-standard swappable battery
ecosystems as well as precinct infrastructure and management
protocols for e-micromobility.
e-Micromobility provides South Africa with an opportunity to
catapult our cities into this new world, where they are not only more
economically viable but also more inclusive of people’s needs. Building
a world-class African city is the objective which will be achieved with
a bottom-up approach that lays the foundation for scale, responsive
policy and ultimately mass buy-in. This bottom-up approach might
start small but will grow to make “rands and sense”, changing the face
of our cities together.
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WATER
WATER
South Africa’s
WATER UPDATE
The South African water sector is facing all kinds of crises with an ill-equipped and sorely resourcedepleted
government that seeks to correct over a decade’s inactions. While this phenomenon
is not unique to the sector; without water security we have no hope of reviving the economy.
So, let’s take stock of where we are and what our options are going forward.
OPINION PIECE BY BENOÎT LE ROY, SA WATER CHAMBER
NATIONAL GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES
• National Water and Sanitation Master Plan published in 2018.
• National water security framework for South Africa updated.
• Water Summit held in Pretoria, March 2022.
• National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) 2050 published in 2022.
• National Water Resource Strategy 4 draft for public comment
published in 2022.
• Blue and Green Drop Reports published in 2022.
SOUTH AFRICAN REALITY
• Main themes out of the Master Plan such as non-revenue
water, reuse and desalination have not yet been implemented
in an overt and convincing manner at local government level
as mandated by legislation.
• Pollution of our water resources given the 97% sewage plants
not complying to Green Drop standards remain unchanged
with no visible mitigation actions made by local government.
Many court cases have been won by NGOs but there has been
no impactful enforcement of the court orders owing to the
lack of state capacity.
• Nelson Mandela Bay faces ongoing water shortages despite
government interventions to support new water initiatives.
• eThekwini suffered devastating floods in 2022 leaving much
of the metro’s water and sewage infrastructure damaged
on account of its poor state and consequent vulnerability.
The December holidaymakers failed to materialise because
of ongoing beach pollution by illegal sewage discharges that,
to this day, remain reportedly largely unchanged.
• Gauteng metros face weekly water disconnections owing to
failing municipal water assets and Rand Water outages, all
worsened by severe loadshedding.
One would easily surmise that the reality resembles a war
zone depiction but no, it’s not Ukraine or Sudan but South
Africa where society seems to take it on the chin and accept
that failing government services are here to stay and the new
normal. Most of the water-related problems we face have one root
cause, failed economic policy at all levels of government exacerbated
by severe governance failures resulting in reduced institutional
capacity to rebuild South Africa’s water security.
South Africa has a rounded-off population of 60-million and is ranked
as 25th in the world and fifth continentally by population size. We
simply cannot be ignored with such a significant population and a
relatively high GDP per capita on the continent. This means to me that
Loadshedding is
not a normal design
input anywhere in
the world.
we must sort out the water security as one of the continent’s top five
population and economic powers for the sake of all those around us
that invariably depend on us.
Water security is a fundamental economic lubricator, and the rollout
of the infrastructure upgrades and extensions are key developers of
crucial skills and a significant job creator. The implementation of the
Water and Sanitation Plan with a price tag of R900-billion in 2018
would generate at least R3.6-trillion in GDP triggering a multitude of
skills, supply chain and technology opportunities.
Many of the water value chain inputs are now imported due to
deindustrialisation and government in collaboration with the private
sector seeks to reverse this terminal trend with the adoption of the
Water and Sanitation Reindustrialisation Plan published in 2022. The
SA Water Chamber was established to catalyse the required publicprivate
collaboration to unlock these master plans and this principal,
loosely termed Private Sector Participation (PSP) is embedded in all
recent policies including the latest NIP 2050 phases one and two.
The chasm between national policy and local government
implementation is so stark that the former has embarked on
establishing the Water Partnership Office (WPO) in the Development
Bank of Southern Africa and the National Water Infrastructure Agency
within the Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) to effectively
replace the Trans Caledon Water Authority (TCWA) and the DWS
construction entity.
These two initiatives are intended to provide project preparation
funding and implementation solutions on a programmatic basis with
the required skills in a semi-centralised supporting mechanism.
These entities would initially focus on reducing non-revenue water,
implementing reuse schemes and desalination plants along the coast
as espoused in the Water and Sanitation Master Plan.
We are now five years down the track of the Master Plan timeline of
10 years, so we have a decade’s worth of infrastructure to roll out by
2028. This is an extraordinary opportunity for South Africa, so we need
to start now!
Loadshedding is a daily problem for all South Africans. And when
it comes to water security, it’s a complex issue with very little that
municipalities can do to alleviate the stress – apart from alternative
energy sources that are generally far too expensive, as they are not
possible at utility scale in the towns. Metros in South Africa have
anything from 100 to 500 pump stations to provide water and evacuate
sewage. Cities are designed to operate with 24/7 electricity supply
feeding into these systems. Loadshedding is not a normal design input
anywhere in the world.
The result is that all electrical demands are being fed from a
single supply system, so loadshed the area and all consumers are
switched off from houses to shops, government buildings, clinics,
hospitals, police stations, schools as well as water and sewage
pump stations. Cities generally have 24 to 48 hours water storage in
reservoirs which are designed to be fed continuously by electrically
driven pump stations to keep them at adequate levels for the
required pressures in the system.
Periodic outages are catered for by the system’s embedded storage
capacity, but ongoing outages result in systems unable to keep
wet and they run dry. This leads to extraordinary damage when
refilling the pipelines due to excessive water hammer, especially
in the old vulnerable and dated systems in South Africa. Sewage
systems only have around four hours of storage time as the
maturation of the sewage can lead to odours as well as methane
and hydrogen sulphide emissions that are potentially lethal.
So, we sit on an additional time bomb on our aging and collapsing
water infrastructure that we are ill-equipped to mitigate. We must
not only capacitate local government in implementing the Water
and Sanitation Master Plan, but also do it without energy security
that serves to complicate and delay matters that will be costing us all
more. What an own goal.
It is very difficult to be positive about our country given the
progressive collapse of our basic services such as water, electricity
and logistics but “WE” have to mobilise a rather apathetic society to
embrace their duties and each with their own capacity contribute to
the inculcation of water security in our country. So, active citizenry
is a powerful tool and is starting to mobilise in the water sector, but
it has been unable to make any real dent in the rolling out of water
security, yet. This landscape is a complex decentralised one that needs
better governance, co-ordination and major PSP to unlock our water
required water security.
Water security is
a fundamental
economic lubricator.
In the next issue, I will uncover any major updates and share my
views on:
• Municipal budgets in the South African metropolitians for
water infrastructure
• Decentralised/package plant options
• Digitisation and digitalisation
• Desalination news
40
41

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
and that it has granted to the Asian regions for example, “enviable
record on growth and poverty reduction” (Asian Development Bank,
2005). What is not clear, however, is how much economic growth is
needed to afford the increased capital investment in infrastructure and
the associated ongoing long-term maintenance and operation costs?
Infrastructure impacts on ecosystems
that are already stressed by
climate change impacts.
The Cost-Benefit Gap
Many claims are made of the role infrastructure plays in economic
growth. What is not examined is the cost benefit, particularly who
carries the cost (including maintenance) and who benefits. A good
example here is the construction of new government buildings in
Pretoria. I still do not understand why ministerial offices must look like
presidential suites in a five-star hotel.
QUO VADIS
Infrastructure Development: Part Two
As expressed in the think-piece published in Issue 57, infrastructure backlogs and failures remain
high in many countries. Countless arguments have been made to explain this, with the most popular
one being under-investment.
BY LLEWELLYN VAN WYK, B. ARCH; MSC (APPLIED), URBAN ANALYST
In this think-piece, infrastructure condition reports are reviewed to
assess whether there might be reasons other than those typically
articulated – a systemic fault line perhaps – that might explain why
infrastructure quality continues to lag despite investment.
COUNTRY INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT REPORTS
Infrastructure diagnostic reviews collect comprehensive data on the
infrastructure sectors of a country and provide a holistic analysis of
the challenges they face. Most reports adopt a sectoral approach,
usually including typical bulk infrastructure services like energy,
water, sanitation, transport and waste. The reports covered include
Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Singapore, South Africa, USA and the
UK. The period covers 1998 to 2021. The reports consulted are listed
in the references.
Other reports use a different narrative to the more conventional
engineering approach, as in the Asian Development Bank (2005) that
uses “stories” as a stock-taking basis. The narrative includes an economic
story (levels of expenditure, stocks of infrastructure assets, access
to infrastructure services and competitiveness); a spatial and demographic
story (the demands on infrastructure of rapid urban growth, linking
the rural poor to growth poles as well as the regional dimension of
infrastructure supporting trade and spreading the benefits across
borders); the environmental story (air quality, emissions, sanitation as
well as the functioning of ecological goods and services); the political
story (who captures the benefits of infrastructure, who provides, to
whom at what price and at whose cost); and lastly the funding story
(the scale of infrastructure needs and how to resource them).
These are crucial questions and were used in this think-piece to
frame a narrative around “systemic infrastructure gaps”. The emergence
of the word “gap” surprised me: in all my research in this field the search
had been predicated on identifying issues, but the more reading that
was done the more the notion of gaps bedded in.
MIND THE GAP
Based on an extensive reading of these reports, the
following main findings emerged.
The Growth Gap
The core argument is that infrastructure is an
essential part of an enabling environment for
investment and livelihood thus promoting economic
advancement, reducing poverty and improving delivery
of health and other services (World Bank, 2014). Almost all reports argue
that infrastructure is a “bedrock for development” (Mitullah, 2016)
High levels of investment do not necessarily
translate into efficient investment.
The Service Gap
Despite investment, access to infrastructure
services remains uneven. The Asian Development
Bank (ADB) acknowledges that infrastructure
plays a dual role: meeting the needs of the
poor and providing the underpinnings for the
region’s growth. The recognition of this dual
role is fundamental to a proper understanding of
sustainable infrastructure design. More critically, the
ADB also notes that the “complexity of responding to these demands
is greater than ever, and the cost of getting things wrong is very
high. Poorly-conceived infrastructure investments today would
have a huge environmental, economic and social impact – and be
very costly to fix later” (Asian Development Bank, 2005).
In many countries infrastructure networks increasingly lag demand
and are characterised by missing regional links and stagnant
household access. In most African countries, universal access to
household services is more than 50 years away (Sudeshna, 2008).
More critically, even where infrastructure networks exist, Sudeshna
(2008) notes that a significant percentage of households remain
unconnected, suggesting that demand-side barriers persist and
that universal access entails more than physical rollouts of networks.
Not unexpectedly, access to infrastructure in rural areas is only a
fraction of that in urban areas (Sudeshna 2008).
The point is made (Foster, 2010) that achieving universal access
will call for greater attention to removing barriers that prevent
the uptake of services and offering practical alternative solutions.
The Network Gap
Understanding that infrastructure is a system of systems is key to
future strategic planning. The development of infrastructure networks
needs to be strategically informed by the spatial distribution of
economic activities and by economies of agglomeration (Foster and
Briceno-Garmendia, 2010). A challenging aspect in this regard is the
infrastructure choices/land-use pattern nexus, especially where those
land-use patterns are not well established and/or the expansion of
those land-use patterns are not accounted for. Often this results in
expensive infrastructure retrofitting.
Difficult economic geography may also present a significant
challenge for infrastructure development: striking the balance
between urban and rural infrastructure design is particularly
challenging, not least because the unit costs of delivering rural
infrastructure is often higher than similar urban infrastructure
(Asian Development Bank, 2005).
In this regard, Infrastructure Australia advocates adopting a placebased
approach which creates a synergistic link between assets
and networks of assets, local and context-specific characteristics
and is beneficial to users of infrastructure services (Infrastructure
Australia, 2021).
The Affordability Gap
Affordability gaps are reported across urban
sectors, and these gaps tend most often to
affect the poor who are often found in periurban,
informal settlements. In developing
economies infrastructure services may be
twice as expensive in some countries, reflecting
both diseconomies of scale in production and
high-profit margins caused by lack of competition
(Foster and Briceno-Garmendia, 2010).
The Basic Services Gap
The provision of basic services
stays uneven: access to water and
sanitation remains low in lowand
middle-income countries. A
reliable electricity supply remains
the predominant infrastructure
challenge, with many countries
facing regular power shortages
and many paying high premiums
for emergency power.
The Funding Gap
In most cases the funding needs exceed the
available revenues. The cost of addressing
infrastructure needs is many billions of
dollars a year, about one-third of which is
for maintenance (Briceno-Garmendia, 2008).
However, due to the large infrastructure
spending backlog, the estimated spending
needs contain a strong component of
refurbishment and replacement. The challenge
varies by country type – fragile states face an
42
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impossible burden and resource-rich countries lag in spite of
their wealth. It is argued that infrastructure provides best outcomes
when it is delivered within robust, well-regulated market structures
and funded through an equitable balance of user and taxpayers’
revenues (Infrastructure Australia, 2016).
The Maintenance Gap
Infrastructure assets in many countries are nearing
and/or are at their end of life. Ageing infrastructure
networks are a simple consequence of when they
were built. The inadequate maintenance of existing
infrastructure exacerbates the dilapidation – and in
some cases the destruction – of already overburdened
infrastructure systems. The rehabilitation backlog
reflects a legacy of under-funded maintenance, a major
waste given that the cost of rehabilitation is several times higher
than the cumulative cost of sound preventative maintenance (Foster
and Bricendo-Garmendia, 2010).
The Financing Gap
There are two funding sources from which infrastructure can
be funded: consumers (via user charges) and public sector (via
taxpayers). A large share of infrastructure investment is domestically
financed, with the central government budget being the main
driver of infrastructure investment. Public investment is largely
tax-financed and executed through central government budgets,
whereas the operating and maintenance expenditure is largely
financed from user charges and executed through state-owned
entities or municipalities.
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
the private sector could provide funding, like
ICT. Many countries are mostly spending only
about two-thirds of the budget allocated to public
investment in infrastructure. This means that public
spending could increase by 30% without an increase
in funding if institutional bottlenecks that inhibit capital
budget execution could be overcome. Challenges include better
planning of projects, earlier completion of feasibility studies,
more efficient procurement processes as well as better project
management and execution.
The Technology Gap
The ability of users to choose from a range of infrastructure
services can be improved with new technologies, which can enable
substantial improvements to user experiences and quality of life
outcomes. This is especially true in rural areas, and for people from
lower socio-economic and diverse backgrounds. However, local
by-laws and building regulations can prohibit the implementation
of alternative technologies and major public infrastructure delivery
entities can prohibit local authorities from implementing alternative
and competing infrastructure services to the detriment of users as
has been the case recently in South Africa. A clear knowledge gap
exists among infrastructure designers around using innovation and
emerging technologies to find new solutions to old problems (Wilczek,
2015). I am reminded by Einstein’s comment “Insanity is doing the
same thing over and over and expecting different results”.
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The Payment Gap
Rarely are user charges sufficient enough to cover
the maintenance and operation of the service.
The contribution level of consumers is impacted
by the prevailing economic conditions. In a highinflation
environment (like the global economy
is now facing) the ability of consumers to
pay for services becomes challenging of itself,
let alone including a contribution to future
development or meeting maintenance needs. Thus,
many local authorities limit their budget increases to be equal to
Asian Development Arcadis. (2016). Global Infrastructure Investment Index. Arcadis.
or below the current inflation rate, which then precludes asset
maintenance or expansion. The lack of formal access to public
infrastructure Foster, V. B.-G. (2010). services Africa’s Infrastructure: and/or non-payment A Time for Transformation. those Washington: services World Bank. becomes
Global Infrastructure Hub. (2021). Singapore. Global Infrastructure Hub.
an expression of political dissatisfaction.
Asian Development Bank. (2005). Connecting East Asia: A New Framework for Infrastructure. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank.
Briceno-Garmendia, C. S. (2008). Financing public infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa: Patterns, Issues, and Options. Washington: World Bank.
Han, G. (2023, February 9). Govt spending may hit 20% of GDP by FY2030, GST hike and tax moves were needed to fund growing needs: MOF. The Straits Times.
Infrastructure Australia. (2016). Australia Infrastructure Plan. Infrastructure Australia.
The Efficiency Gap
The Infrastructure lack of Australia. long-term (2021). planning, A Pathway to Infrastructure coordination Resilience. and Infrastructure cooperation Australia. between
levels of government remains a severe constraint on infrastructure
development. High levels of investment do not translate into efficient
investment. Rathbone, M. A. (2021). Even Singapore if major ranks #1. potential Singapore: CMS. efficiency gains are achieved,
many countries would still face an infrastructure funding gap of
billions Tomer, A. of K. (2021). dollars Rebuild a year, with purpose. mainly Brookings: power. Metropolitan Policy Program.
Wilczek, F. (2015, September 23). Einstein’s Parable of Quantum Insanity. Scientific America.
Briceno-Garmendia, Smits and Foster (2008) note that in some
World Bank. (2014). Logistics performance index. Washington: World Bank.
instances countries allocate more resources to some areas of
World Data. (2023). Transport and infrastructure in Singapore. Washington: World Bank.
infrastructure than seem to be warranted, often in areas where
Infrastructure Australia. (2019). An Assessment of Australia’s Future Infrastructure Needs. Infrastructure Australia.
Jay, S. J. (2007). Environmental Impact Assessment: Retrospect and Prospect. Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Elsevier. 27 (4), 289-300.
The Ecological Gap
Infrastructure investment and climate action are urgently needed.
With the right approach it’s possible to achieve both goals
simultaneously. The planet’s climate crisis requires a
resilient built environment to protect and support
communities (Tomer, 2021). Infrastructure impacts on
ecosystems that are already stressed by climate change
impacts. Where infrastructure is built, and what
resources are used for its construction and operation
become key considerations to deal with both threats.
Infrastructure choices play a critical role in addressing
the contributory role of infrastructure to biodiversity
loss and climate change. Achieving resilience requires a shift
in focus from the resilience of assets themselves to the contribution
of assets to the resilience of the system (Infrastructure Australia, 2021).
Assets that do this include blue and green infrastructure and naturebased
solutions.
In this regard, national, regional and local policymaking agendas
and project level interventions have a critical role to play. Typical
approaches in the past relied on environmental impact assessments
(EIAs) with a view to minimising impacts through mitigation measures
or environmental safeguards. However, EIAs are criticised for being
used more as a decision-aiding tool rather than a decision-making
tool (Jay, 2007) thereby limiting their influence on decisions. In
practice, almost all EIAs address only direct and immediate on-site
effects (Lenzen, 2003).
Lenzen, M. M. (2003). Environmental impact assessment including indirect effects - a case study using input-output analysis. Environmental Impact Assessment Review. Elsevier. 23(3), 263-282.
Mitullah, W. S. (2016). Building on progress: Infrastructure development still a major challenge in Africa. Nairobi: Afrobarometer.
Sudeshna, B. W. (2008). Access, Affordability, and Alternatives: Modern Infrastructure Services in Africa. Washington: World Bank.
45

THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
THE CURIOUS CASE OF SINGAPORE
Throughout the many country infrastructure reports read for this
think-piece, one country stood out – Singapore. Singapore has jumped
up two places to claim the number one spot on the 2021 Infrastructure
Index (Rathbone, 2021) and retained its position as the world’s most
attractive market for the third edition of the Global Infrastructure
Investment Index (Arcadis, 2016). This despite investing around 5%
of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on infrastructure in 2015 and 1%
in 2021 (Global Infrastructure Hub, 2021), a level many commentors
would argue is insufficient. Singapore aims to spend 4.4% of GDP by
FY2026 to FY2030 (Han, 2023). Yet, as shown in Table 1, its infrastructure
quality rates at 95 and its infrastructure gap at 0.
Global Infrastructure Hub, May 2023
Metric Singapore High-income
countries
GDP per capita (USD) 72 795 47 887
Population (million persons) 5 1 241
Infrastructure quality 95 84
Infrastructure investment (% of GDP) 1 2.7
Infrastructure gap (% of GDP) 0 0.3
Singapore South Beach.
Merlion Park, Singapore.
Lotus Night, Singapore.
Marina Bay Sands.
Table 1. Infrastructure market overview of Singapore.
Notes to Table
1. GDP per capita and population data as of 2021.
2. All other data as of 2019.
3. Infrastructure quality rating on a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best).
This begs the question: how can Singapore retain its leading position
at this level of investment? Perhaps the answer is that it is a city state
with an area of 719km² and a population density of 7 585 inhabitants
per km² (World Data, 2023). If this is the case, the factors making a city
state successful need to be identified and tested for replicability in
other countries.
Hong Lim, Singapore.
CONCLUSION
In starting this series of analyses I had in mind the opportunity of
finding some systemic reason(s) for the poor state of infrastructure
globally. The collective readings have however given rise to a)
the notion of gaps and b) the success of infrastructure services in
Singapore. I have long argued that the design of a city state may
well be the key to a well-functioning and sustainable infrastructure
sector, and there is now some evidence to support this hypothesis. In
the next think-piece, I will explore this notion further.
Hong Lim.
Changi Airport, Singapore.
Singapore cable cars.
Singapore Super Trees.
ASCE 2021. A Comprehensive Assessment of America’s Infrastructure. Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers.
ASCE 2013. 2013 US Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers.
Canada Infrastructure 2016. Informing the Future: Canadian Infrastructure Report Card 2016. Canadian Construction Association, Canadian Public Works Association, Canadian Society for Civiol Engineering, and the
Federation of Canadian Municipalities.
CBI/AECOM 2016. Thinking Globally Delivering Locally: CBI/AECOM Infrastructure Survey 2016. United Kingdom: CBI.
Coulibaly, B. (ed), 2019. Foresight Africa. Washington, Brookings Institution.
ISPI 2019. Infrastructure and Development: The Case of Infrastructure Asia. Italian Institute for International Political Studies.
ICE 2014. State of the Nation Infrastructure. Institution of Civil Engineers.
IPA 2017. Transforming Infrastructure Performance. United Kingdom: Infrastructure and Projects Authority.
Engineers Australia 2010. Australian Infrastructure Report Card 2010. Engineers Australia, November 2010.
Infrastructure Australia 2015. Australia Infrastructure Audit. Infrastructure Australia April 2015.
Infrastructure New Zealand 2020. Infrastructure Priorities for 2020-2023 Government. Infrastructure New Zealand, Auckland.
Lim, H. 2008. Infrastructure Development in Singapore. In Kumar, N. (ed.), International Infrastructure Development in East Asia – Towards Balanced Regional Development and Integration, ERIA Research Project Report
2007-2, Chiba: IDE_JETRO, pp.228-262.
Miller, J. (ed.), 2007. Infrastructure 2007: A Global Perspective. Urban Land Institute and Ernst & Young.
National Infrastructure Commission 2018. National Infrastructure Assessment. United Kingdom: National Infrastructure Commission.
New Zealand Government 2015. The Thirty Year New Zealand Infrastructure Plan. New Zealand Government: Wellington.
SAICE 2011. Infrastructure Report Card for South Africa. Halfway House: The South African Institution of Civil Engineering.
SAICE 2017. Infrastructure Report Card for South Africa. Halfway House: The South African Institution of Civil Engineering.
SAICE Singapore 2022. Infrastructure at night. Report Card for South Africa. Halfway House: The South African Institution of Civil Engineering.
Singapore city skyline.
Tuas Link MRT station in
western Singapore.
Gardens by the Bay.
Gardens by the Bay East.
Park Royal Hotel.
46
47

ENERGY
ENERGY
A Gόnzales Segura, D Molina Fernández and I Sánchez Almazo, University of Granada, Spain.
opening a new research facility for just this purpose. The plan is to
bring together materials scientists, chemical engineers and digital
transformation professionals to drive nanotechnology advances using
materials informatics and computational chemistry.
* Written by Sam Dale, technology analyst, IDTechEx
ECOSYSTEM DIVERSITY
TOWARDS THE BATTERY OF THE FUTURE
A Kopp, Aalen University, Germany
ENERGY MATERIALS
research is
DRIVING CHANGE
Materials informatics is the application of data-driven methods to the field of materials science
and has wide-ranging benefits, but the ability to enhance the sustainability of materials could be
the most impactful of these.
BY IDTechEx*
Decarbonisation efforts are a growing driver for adopting these
technologies and processes. This, alongside the fact that
materials informatics helps organisations to save money
while accelerating materials innovation, is a contributing factor to
IDTechEx’s prediction that the market for the provision of external
materials informatics services will grow at 13.7% CAGR to 2033.
Players from the AI industry are seeing materials informatics’
ability to contribute to solving the climate crisis. Meta AI (of Facebook
parent Meta) and Carnegie Mellon University’s Open Catalyst Project
aims to identify catalysts that aid the production of fuels using
excess renewable energy. This project open sources the discovery
process, making the results of 260-million density functional theory
calculations publicly available for researchers to train their own
surrogate models on.
Alongside the project’s initiators, universities, including Munich
Technical University and other AI giants, including Tencent AI, have
published results calculated from the dataset. Applications of “AI for
good” in sustainability of this sort will likely become a major part
of the ESG toolboxes of machine learning industry titans. These
surrogate models could aid in decreasing the energy requirements
to produce, for example, green hydrogen.
Solar photovoltaics (PV) are another fruitful area for materials
informatics to make an impact. AI can facilitate many areas of PV
development, including accelerated lifetime testing.
The materials industry itself is acting on the need for in-house data
Some key application areas for materials informatics and their potential
sustainability impacts. Main image: Phytoplankton: regulators of
atmospheric CO2, ocean acidification and global carbon cycle.
science expertise as its importance continues to grow, including in
facilitating sustainable manufacturing. In February 2023, materials
industry giant Toray Industries announced that it would be
IDTechEx
Cobus Visagie, University of Pretoria, South Africa
READ REPORT
Professor Cobus Visagie’s microscopy image of fungi shows a new
Talaromyces species found in South Africa, growing on oatmeal.
Visagie is a mycologist, Forestry and Agricultural Biotechnology
Institute at the University of Pretoria, working on the taxonomy of
moulds from the natural and built environment.
THOUGHT [ECO]NOMY
greeneconomy/report recycle
In this image of fluorides on an anode surface of a Li-ion battery,
the growth of nearly perfect cubes is directly linked to the crystal
system of the materials. ZEISS light and electron microscopes were
used to assess the quality of Li-ion batteries. The demand for these
energy suppliers and storage devices continues to increase, as do
the requirements.
Players from across the AI industry
are seeing materials informatics’ ability to
contribute to solving the climate crisis.
ENERGY MATERIALS RESEARCH | Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA | Carl Zeiss Microscopy GmbH
As natural resources become increasingly scarce and the demand grows for more portable, reliable,
safe and sustainable forms of energy, scientists face new challenges in materials research. Solar cells,
batteries, fuel cells and next-generation nuclear reactors – and the often highly heterogeneous materials
they contain – present a paradigm shift in shaping the way energy is generated, stored and converted.
Multi-scale, multi-modal imaging and analysis approaches lead to a comprehensive understanding of
the links between structure, chemistry and performance. This deep understanding paves the way towards
designing novel materials and devices.
In lithium-ion batteries (LiBs), for example, material features spanning across many orders affect the
battery’s ultimate performance: measuring the LiB’s geometric architecture, inspecting the package of intact
LiBs, quantifying particles, voids and porosity as well as mapping the chemical composition and reactivity
on a micro or nanometer scale.
Kerr microscopy allows for visualisation of magnetic domains in materials for new EV motors. For even
higher magnifications, eg to characterise micro and nanometer scaled defects in battery electrode materials
or when imaging sensitive material like graphite or polymers, an SEM with outstanding low-voltage
performance provides robust information. Materials researchers profit from non-destructive inspection of
the whole, intact battery when performing large-scale inspection in 3D or even 4D. Particle and void sizes or
tortuosity inside of the battery can also be quantified with a high-resolution X-ray microscopy.
48
49

WASTE
WASTE NOT
WANT NOT
USE-IT, a registered non-profit founded on the principle of a circular economy, creates jobs
through waste recycling, reduction and diversion. Green Economy Journal caught up with them
and learnt that one man’s trash is indeed another man’s treasure.
Please outline the organisation’s background and how it is fulfils
its stated objective.
Located in Hammarsdale, the organisation is funded in part by the
eThekwini Economic Development Unit (EDU). The priority of the
EDU is job creation and while this aligns with USE-IT goals, it remains
critical that relationships with other partners and funders are fostered
to ensure the development and ongoing implementation of projects
that align with the principles of the circular green economy.
Job creation and entrepreneurship through waste diversion and
beneficiation have become the key priorities, and USE-IT leverages
resources to build opportunities in the green economy.
How do you establish enterprise development for companies in
South Africa?
As an NPO/NGO, USE-IT operates in a collaborative environment,
forming partnerships with organisations with synergistic objectives as
well as sharing knowledge and resources.
USE-IT would identify the opportunity or entrepreneur and help
create a business that would utilise waste as a source of material
within in their operation, either through beneficiation or upcycling or
recycling. Once the product is developed and the business is established,
we partner with Niya Consulting who are a multi-faceted organisation
and business incubation that facilitates business strategies in the
interest of growing the organisation. Niya provides clients, including
start-ups and SMEs, with a platform to manage their processes
effectively through best practice, staying abreast with ongoing changes
in the sector landscape for sustainable future economies.
This is done through an incubation programme housed at the
Hammarsdale Waste Beneficiation Site. Each of these projects fall
under our incubation program, we provide the technical assistance,
operational space and administrative support. The aim is to incubate
the business until it is a financially viable venture where they can then
apply for finance to expand their operations off site.
What are your current flagship projects?
We have the following incubation programme:
1. Owethu Umgele Sewing (funded through the Do More Foundation)
who utilises waste textiles to make shopping bags, school backpacks
and gym bags. Most of this material waste is derived from corporates
through old banners and conference display materials. Once they
are no longer of use to the corporates, the materials are donated to
Owethu who use this waste to make new products.
2. Home Deco Tech is a woodworking project that uses waste wood
as its materials to manufacture custom-made furniture. Home
Deco Tech is also sponsored by CHEP to supply educational toys
made from its waste wood that are then in turn sponsored to Early
Childhood Development Centres.
3. KEY Bricks is an innovation that will manufacture an eco-block
consisting of recycled materials such as glass and building rubble.
This project will aim to create opportunities for local block
manufacture close to the build site as the units are small-scale and
easy to transport.
We lend credibility to our funders
through robust reporting and
financial accountability.
Where do you see the sector going within the upcoming five?
How does USE-IT fit into this future?
This is a long conversation … loadshedding is having a severe impact
on the industry. Please read Detrimental effects of rolling blackouts
on SA’s plastics industry on GreenEconomy.Media
The impact is felt especially by the waste collectors, we have been
working together with the informal waste sector to integrate them
into the formal sector. They remain at the lowest end of the value chain
yet are responsible for 80% of what ends up being recycled. We have
been establishing networks of waste collectors and setting up buyback
centres close to them so that they can trade.
An example of the benefits of this, previously a waste collector based
in Hammarsdale would need to travel to Pinetown to sell their waste.
That trip would cost R60. They could sell their waste for R140 (a full
bulk bag of PET) and take home R80. By cutting out that cost of
transport we have directly impacted the earning potential of that
waste collector. It might seem like a small amount but it makes a huge
difference in the lives of collectors.
To try and change the big picture is overwhelming, so we focus
on where we can make small changes that will have big impact and
improve the lives of the people we work with.
Is there anything that you would like to add?
By working with an NPO like USE-IT, we lend credibility to our funders
through robust reporting and financial accountability. Our track record
has secured us funding for the past 10 years and we continue to provide
impact for our funders.
51

WASTE
The role of asset managers in
EFFECTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT
According to estimates, global waste generation will reach 2.2-billion tons by 2025. Shockingly,
high-income countries, which account for 16% of global population, produce 34% of the world’s
waste. And, only 15% to 20% of waste generated globally is recycled.
BY SANLAM INVESTMENTS*
One of the leading causes of waste pollution is inefficient
production processes, product design and improper waste
disposal practices, such as illegal dumping and ineffective
waste collection services. Manufacturers need to understand
and incorporate principles of circular economy in their design to
ensure that their products maintain a level of value post use.
It is estimated that South Africa alone generates about 122-million
tons of waste a year, 90% of which still goes to landfills. Waste products
that end up in landfills become an environmental and social cost
to society, with little accountability from manufactures. We should
move towards the principle of cradle-to-cradle, where there is greater
accountability for product manufacturers in the waste value chain.
Considering the impact of waste pollution on the environment,
society and governance practices, what actions can investors take to
mitigate these challenges?
At Sanlam Investments, our approach has recognised investing
in waste management as a core part of our sustainability strategy.
Investing in innovative technologies a crucial role in improving
waste management. This could include investing in companies that
are developing new materials, technologies or business models that
support a circular economy and reduce waste.
To show Sanlam Investments’ commitment towards sustainable
investments, SkipWaste recently became the private equity division’s
fourth acquisition in the fund, following that of Cavalier Group,
Absolute Pets and Q Link. SkipWaste has an integrated business model,
spanning onsite waste management, primary storage, waste logistics,
recycling and recovery as well as alternative disposal and conversion.
With more than 1 000 clients and 3 000 sites primarily in Gauteng,
SkipWaste is well-positioned to sustain its access to waste-at-source
and the company’s ability to redirect more waste towards alternative
forms of disposal.
In addition to investing for impact, asset owners can engage with
investee companies to encourage them to adopt sustainable practices,
such as reducing waste, improving recycling and increasing their use
of renewable energy. One practical measure is for companies to set
specific, science-based and well-thought-out targets so that investors
can track the company’s performance and hold management
accountable. This not only has a positive impact on the environment
but also influences the long-term financial performance of companies.
Waste management contributes to achieving several United
Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 8,
which focuses on promoting inclusive and continuous economic
growth, full and productive employment as well as decent work
for all.
Waste management creates employment opportunities, particularly
in low-income communities. According to Plastics SA the plastic
industry provides some 60 000 informal jobs, many of whom are
waste-pickers and collectors. This, in turn, helps to reduce poverty
and increase economic growth.
Viable waste management practices contribute to achieving SDG 12,
which aims to ensure responsible consumption and production patterns.
By reducing the amount of waste that ends up in landfills, waste
management reduces greenhouse gas emissions and environmental
pollution, thereby promoting a more sustainable future.
Waste management contributes to the development of resilient
infrastructure, which is critical for sustainable economic growth.
Proper waste management helps to prevent environmental degradation
and health hazards.
Innovation is crucial in the fight for sustainability amidst the
increasing environmental challenges worldwide. Entrepreneurs,
innovators and researchers are developing new technologies,
processes and products that reduce our impact on the planet. By
supporting innovation and investment in waste management, asset
managers drive progress towards a brighter and greener future.
* Written by Johan Griesel, ESG and impact analyst, Sanlam Investments.
ESG | MINING
WATER | ENERGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
52

ENQUIRIES
Contact Alexis Knipe: alexis@greeneconomy.media
www.greeneconomy.media