Strategic Planning Group Fall 2023 Newsletter

China’s House of Cards
By Alex Craner
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It has come time to speak
bluntly about the problems
that China is facing. My
first recommendation is to
recognize that China has
mastered deception. China,
more specifically the Chinese
Communist Party, is a tactician
in the game of whispers and
lies. All bad news is suppressed,
and all good news is amplified.
Unfortunately for the CCP, the
mask is slipping. Whether we
examine it through a domestic,
international, or heck, even
an extraterrestrial lens, it is
evident that the Chinese system
is plagued by a multitude of
problems that are becoming
progressively more apparent.
From economic challenges and a
deteriorating political structure
to unfavorable demographics
and an extensive array of other
concerns, the prospect of China’s
collapse should no longer be a
surprise to anyone.
In recent months, a concerning
trend has emerged in China,
characterized by a multitude of
issues across economic, political,
and demographic fronts.
Observers have noted a sharp
decline in consumer spending
and lending, which is particularly
alarming in a country with a
strong capitalist drive. China’s
usual approach of injecting
capital into every sector has hit
a roadblock, leading to stagnant
lending practices.
The world has witnessed the
dismissal of the disappearance
of prominent figures, such as
the foreign minister and defense
minister, underscoring a growing
sense of instability. Troubling
statistics, including skyrocketing
youth unemployment, have
prompted authorities to cease
collecting such data altogether.
This data blackout extends to
bond transactions, a crucial
element for achieving a more
sustainable economic structure.
Even the much-touted “valueadded
scale” strategy, which
China had emphasized for years,
appears to be abandoned.
The situation can be described as
a broad-scale societal, economic,
and political breakdown.
While the suddenness of these
developments may be a shock to
some, it is essential to recognize
that these issues have been
brewing for several years.
From an external perspective,
the world’s focus has been
on its own challenges, such
as the Ukraine conflict, Iran’s
activities, and domestic political
transitions in the United States,
Europe, and Japan. China’s
internal issues were somewhat
overshadowed by these global
events until they became too
prominent to ignore.
Within China, Chairman Xi
initiated a series of purges
under the pretext of an anticorruption
campaign. This
move systematically eliminated
regional power centers and
neutralized factions associated
with previous presidents,
effectively quashing potential
rivals. In addition, data
collection on various aspects,
such as college dissertations
and political biographies, has
dwindled. These measures have
created an information vacuum,
hindering the rise of new
political leaders.
One of the critical inflection
points that contributed to
China’s current state is its
demographic situation. The
birth rate in China has dropped
by nearly 70% since 2017, the
fastest recorded decline in
Strategic Planning Group 10