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Strategic Planning Group Fall 2023 Newsletter

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1 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


CONTENTS<br />

pg. 3<br />

The Contagion of Common Sense is<br />

Rapidly Emerging<br />

by Ryan Craner<br />

Ryan compares current divisive times to the past,<br />

optimistic about the return of common sense.<br />

pg. 6<br />

Understanding Recessions:<br />

Navigating the Natural Ebbs and Flows of the Economy<br />

by John Park<br />

John discusses the possibility of a recession and<br />

provides financial advice for navigating it.<br />

pg. 8<br />

Breaking News:<br />

Good Things Are Happening Constantly<br />

by Tom Craner<br />

Tom encourages staying optimistic amid<br />

political and global developments.<br />

pg. 3<br />

The Contagion of Common Sense<br />

is Rapidly Emerging<br />

<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong> 2<br />

pg. 10<br />

China’s House of Cards<br />

by Alex Craner<br />

Alex highlights China’s internal challenges<br />

and their potential global consequences.<br />

pg. 13<br />

Find the Object Activity<br />

pg. 14<br />

Meet the Team


The Contagion of Common Sense<br />

is Rapidly Emerging<br />

By Ryan Craner<br />

Taking the client advocate and consumer protection approach, Ryan has always viewed every<br />

client as a long-term and very important relationship.<br />

A Look Back and Ahead. Our Society has had a Rough Three or Four Years.<br />

When you look at our world,<br />

our country, our cities over<br />

the last three years, for many, it<br />

is frightening and depressing.<br />

In early 2020, we experienced<br />

the largest and most devastating<br />

pandemic in world history. We<br />

experienced the most draconian<br />

lockdowns, vaccine mandates,<br />

mask mandates, and restriction<br />

on lifestyle and commerce that<br />

have ever been imposed on the<br />

American public. We watched<br />

our country descend into<br />

incredibly divisive arguments<br />

over how to respond to this<br />

pandemic. Perhaps some of<br />

these lockdowns and mandates<br />

were necessary, and perhaps<br />

some of them were overboard.<br />

By the summer of 2020,<br />

beginning with the murder of<br />

George Floyd, we saw protests<br />

and riots break out in nearly all<br />

of our major cities. Some were<br />

very violent, and some were<br />

peaceful. All of them appeared<br />

to involve burning buildings<br />

and communities. Countless<br />

businesses and residences were<br />

destroyed, burned, or looted.<br />

Police officers were killed and<br />

wounded, and protesters died,<br />

while thousands were injured.<br />

We have seen policies coming<br />

out of the pandemic and<br />

protests that make absolutely no<br />

sense. Things like, defunding the<br />

police, no bail rules, and local<br />

and state prosecutors that refuse<br />

to prosecute violent crime. As<br />

a result, we’ve seen the murder<br />

rate and violent crime skyrocket<br />

in nearly all of our major cities.<br />

Local leaders and mayors have<br />

gravitated toward a policy of<br />

“compassion and rights” for<br />

the homeless. This policy has<br />

resulted in massive homeless<br />

camps, grotesquely insanitary<br />

conditions, and we’re witnessing<br />

hopeless untreated mental<br />

illness and addiction right in<br />

front of our eyes. The policy in<br />

the past was such that when a<br />

mentally ill or addicted homeless<br />

person began to sleep or camp<br />

out on a sidewalk, local officials<br />

would triage that person’s<br />

needs and get them access<br />

to mental health resources,<br />

addiction treatment, housing<br />

assistance, and various other<br />

support that is already available<br />

in our communities. Leaders in<br />

3 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


most of our large cities today<br />

have abandoned these policies<br />

in favor of what they call<br />

“compassion” and “rights,” and<br />

the results are horrific.<br />

We have watched legitimate<br />

and vital businesses like grocery<br />

stores and other important<br />

retailers looted and destroyed<br />

by marauding groups of usually<br />

young able-bodied people. The<br />

word is out, “you will not be<br />

prosecuted for such crimes.” As<br />

a result, we watch store after<br />

store in city after city close or<br />

relocate, making it even harder<br />

for low-income urban residents<br />

to survive.<br />

We have seen the most divisive<br />

politics in two generations. At<br />

the presidential politics level,<br />

the now toxic and activist media<br />

on both sides, is convincing<br />

people that if their candidate<br />

loses, it will be the “end of the<br />

world.” Today’s extreme “take<br />

no prisoners” media is here to<br />

make you feel even worse about<br />

all world events. This has been<br />

a very deep division and an<br />

extreme societal separation.<br />

It is these extremes that make<br />

the next cyclical stage even<br />

more exciting and optimistic.<br />

Now, Let’s Move On<br />

To The Good News!<br />

We Will Get Better<br />

Because We Have<br />

Been Here Before.<br />

We have done this before, and<br />

not just once. We have seen<br />

periods of extreme division and<br />

protest before. We have seen<br />

what seems like lawlessness and<br />

a failure of our entire system.<br />

Each time we have done this,<br />

protest occurred, the division<br />

deepened, and then we changed.<br />

Society gets better, and common<br />

sense returns. Optimism and<br />

confidence are restored, and<br />

everyone feels better each time.<br />

The last time we, as a country<br />

and society, did this was from<br />

1968 through 1974. The Vietnam<br />

War was incredibly divisive;<br />

we saw countless protests,<br />

both violent and nonviolent. A<br />

domestic terrorist group called<br />

the Weather Underground<br />

was very active in protesting<br />

the Vietnam War. They were a<br />

leftist, heavily Marxist group in<br />

ideology. Sound familiar?<br />

The Weathermen detonated<br />

over 100 bombs on government<br />

and corporate targets. In<br />

their most egregious attacks,<br />

they bombed the US Capitol<br />

building, the Pentagon, and the<br />

State Department headquarters.<br />

They also bombed banks and<br />

corporate facilities of companies<br />

thought to support the war. The<br />

Weather Underground, on May<br />

31st, 1974, bombed the Office of<br />

the California Attorney General.<br />

The Weather Underground<br />

stated this was in response to<br />

the killing of six members of the<br />

Symbionese Liberation Army.<br />

On September 11th, 1974,<br />

they bombed the Anaconda<br />

Corporation (part of the<br />

Rockefeller Corporation). The<br />

Weather Underground stated<br />

this was in retribution for<br />

Anaconda’s alleged involvement<br />

in the Chilean coup in September<br />

1973, where a Marxist leader was<br />

removed from office.<br />

Have you been disgusted by<br />

today’s lack of “rule of law” in our<br />

country? It is not the first time!<br />

Here’s one for you from back in<br />

the last cycle in 1974. Two of<br />

the four founding members of<br />

the The Weather Underground<br />

never spent a day in jail. These<br />

are domestic terrorists who<br />

exploded over 100 bombs on<br />

government and corporate<br />

targets, three people died, and<br />

they never spent a day in jail!<br />

They spent about 10 years on<br />

the FBI ‘s most wanted list, and<br />

then it just kind of faded away,<br />

and they returned to our society<br />

as free citizens. To this day, they<br />

are alive and well. Their names<br />

are Bernadine Dohrn and Bill<br />

Ayers.<br />

The FBI, while investigating<br />

and pursuing the Weather<br />

Underground, was guilty<br />

of using illegal tactics and<br />

unconstitutional methods, such<br />

as break-ins of family members’<br />

homes of suspects without<br />

a warrant. (Sound familiar in<br />

today’s context?) The former FBI<br />

Associate Director and acting<br />

Director were prosecuted and<br />

convicted for these offenses,<br />

and later received a presidential<br />

pardon. (Again, sound familiar?)<br />

Now, the whole reason I tell you<br />

about the Weather Underground<br />

and the Vietnam War protest<br />

era in the late sixties and early<br />

seventies is because this was<br />

very similar to our past three or<br />

four years. We saw presidential<br />

<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong> 4


impeachment hearings in the<br />

early 70s. We saw protests and<br />

violence. We saw corruption and<br />

illegal actions in our national law<br />

enforcement and intelligence<br />

agencies.<br />

And then we moved on… we<br />

improved, we got past it, and we<br />

became less divisive as a country<br />

and as a society.<br />

So now, for my official prediction:<br />

I am predicting a resurgence<br />

of common sense! I can tell<br />

you that voters in suburban<br />

San Francisco, Chicago, New<br />

York, Seattle, Los Angeles, and<br />

Portland are tired of not being<br />

able to drive downtown and go<br />

to their favorite restaurant, that<br />

they’ve gone to for decades, and<br />

they can’t right now because<br />

they don’t feel safe. They will<br />

likely have to walk through<br />

a danger zone to get to the<br />

restaurant. They don’t feel safe!<br />

The first wave of common<br />

sense will come in city council,<br />

mayoral, and gubernatorial<br />

elections. Any candidate from<br />

any party on either side of the<br />

political spectrum that is talking<br />

about and pledging common<br />

sense and unity and making the<br />

community safer will be elected.<br />

It will start at the local levels,<br />

and then this same wave of<br />

common sense will work its way<br />

up to congressional candidates<br />

and the presidential level as<br />

well. The American people are<br />

sick and tired of extremists and<br />

extremism! They are ready, more<br />

than ready, for common sense.<br />

So, be ready for the change<br />

because here it comes! Common<br />

sense is about to break out in a<br />

big way. It may be hit and miss at<br />

first and happen slowly, or it will<br />

likely happen very quickly.<br />

...we improved, we<br />

got past it, and we<br />

became less divisive<br />

as a country and as a<br />

society.<br />

I point out this period in the past<br />

(68-74) because we had reached<br />

an extreme division, politically<br />

and socially. We saw lawlessness<br />

and chaos, just like we have<br />

seen in the last three to five<br />

years. And you know what? Our<br />

country, our society, has done<br />

pretty darn good since 1974.<br />

We saw tremendous economic<br />

growth. We saw the booming<br />

1980s and the go-go 1990s.<br />

We saw our constitution work<br />

and our government function.<br />

We have had our trials and our<br />

setbacks, but predominately we<br />

saw prosperity and American<br />

greatness on full display. We saw<br />

our country come together and<br />

rise to incredible challenges,<br />

and we saw much better times!<br />

I can tell you without a doubt<br />

that the markets and the<br />

economy act in cycles and have<br />

remarkable similarity through<br />

each cycle.<br />

Mark Twain once said, “History<br />

never repeats itself, but it does<br />

often rhyme.” And I will go<br />

further and say that not only<br />

does history repeat itself, but<br />

the cycles socially and politically<br />

are remarkably similar as well.<br />

We are now overdue to move<br />

on from the pandemic and<br />

protest era. We are cyclically and<br />

historically ready to move on<br />

from an uncertain economy and<br />

markets to prosperity, unity, and<br />

American greatness!<br />

Sources:<br />

https://www.theodysseyonline.com/protests-that-changed-history<br />

https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/how-city-once-called-murderapolis-became-center-of-defund-the-policemovement-now-grappling-with-violent-crime-spike/<br />

https://www.nytimes.com/1983/12/01/us/two-top-fbi-officials-cleared.<br />

html https://www.collectorsweekly.com/articles/united-states-of-protest/<br />

5 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


Understanding Recessions:<br />

Navigating the Natural Ebbs and Flows of the Economy<br />

By John Park<br />

From investments to complicated retirement strategies, John works to educate and advise his<br />

clients on making smart financial decisions.<br />

There has been a lot of<br />

speculation throughout this<br />

year about the possibility of<br />

a recession. By way of high<br />

interest rates and tightening the<br />

money supply, the Fed has been<br />

aggressively battling inflation<br />

for some time. These measures<br />

have the potential to cause a<br />

recession. Ultimately, I’d much<br />

rather experience a recession<br />

than unchecked inflation. Let<br />

me state clearly though, I’m not<br />

saying we are in a recession right<br />

now, nor am I saying we are for<br />

certain going to be in one. It is a<br />

possibility, however. So, let’s talk<br />

about that.<br />

Many economists are predicting<br />

a mild to moderate recession<br />

due to the long-lived nature of<br />

our current battle with inflation<br />

and government spending.<br />

Be careful how you react to<br />

this though; these economists<br />

have been wrong before and<br />

many that I follow expected a<br />

recession to hit late last year or<br />

early this year. They have been<br />

wrong so far.<br />

Also, I will say there is an<br />

equal number of economists<br />

predicting a “Goldilocks” scenario<br />

where the economy’s reaction to<br />

battling inflation isn’t too hot or<br />

too cold, it’ll be just right. I hope<br />

that’s the case. I’ve been joking<br />

with my clients all year about<br />

my bold prediction of whether<br />

we’ll have a recession or the<br />

Goldilocks scenario: I’d give<br />

it a 50/50 chance either way.<br />

That’s my humble admission<br />

that I just can’t predict the<br />

future sometimes… Obviously<br />

a Goldilocks scenario is ideal.<br />

It won’t be a source of concern<br />

for investors though. So, I’m<br />

going to focus on the recession<br />

scenario in this article.<br />

The word "recession" often<br />

evokes apprehension and<br />

conjures images of plummeting<br />

stock markets, unemployment,<br />

and financial turmoil. However,<br />

it's essential to understand that<br />

recessions are a natural part<br />

of the economic cycle, just as<br />

growth periods are. They're not<br />

always severe, and with the<br />

right knowledge and strategies,<br />

individuals and businesses<br />

can navigate them adeptly. I<br />

want to help you have a proper<br />

perspective of recessionary<br />

times, if we are going to have<br />

one or are in one now.<br />

1. Nature of the Economic<br />

Cycle:<br />

Like the changing seasons, the<br />

economy undergoes phases –<br />

expansion, peak, contraction,<br />

and trough. A recession falls in<br />

the contraction phase, where<br />

economic activities decrease.<br />

Once the contraction ends,<br />

the economy moves into the<br />

trough and eventually back to<br />

expansion. Understanding this<br />

cycle helps demystify the nature<br />

of recessions.<br />

2. Not Always Severe:<br />

It's crucial to distinguish between<br />

a regular recession and more<br />

severe economic downturns<br />

like depressions. While the<br />

latter can last several years and<br />

cause significant distress, many<br />

recessions are relatively shortlived.<br />

The average post-World<br />

War II recession in the U.S.,<br />

for example, lasted about 11<br />

months.<br />

3. Causes:<br />

Recessions In<br />

Perspective<br />

Recessions can be triggered<br />

by various factors – from<br />

abrupt financial shocks and<br />

global events to accumulated<br />

imbalances in the economy. The<br />

cause often dictates the severity<br />

and duration of the recession.<br />

<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong> 6


Smart Financial<br />

Decisions During<br />

Recessions<br />

1. Emergency Fund:<br />

We consistently recommend<br />

maintaining an emergency fund,<br />

and its importance becomes<br />

evident during recessions.<br />

Having three to six months'<br />

worth of expenses in a liquid<br />

form can be a lifeline if there's a<br />

job loss or reduced income.<br />

2. Diversify Investments:<br />

A well-diversified portfolio can<br />

help weather the storms of a<br />

recession. While certain sectors<br />

or assets might experience<br />

downturns, others might stay<br />

stable or even grow. Diversifying<br />

investments across asset classes,<br />

industries, and even geographies<br />

can help reduce potential losses.<br />

3. Avoid Panic Selling:<br />

History shows that markets<br />

rebound after recessions. Selling<br />

assets, especially stocks, during<br />

a downturn can lock in losses,<br />

while holding onto them offers<br />

the potential for recovery and<br />

growth once the recession<br />

passes.<br />

4. Limit Debt:<br />

Reducing unnecessary expenditures<br />

and avoiding accumulating more<br />

debt than necessary can offer<br />

more flexibility during economic<br />

contractions. High-interest debts,<br />

such as credit card debts, should be<br />

especially avoided or paid down.<br />

5. Stay Informed and Seek<br />

Advice:<br />

Financial decisions during<br />

a recession should be wellinformed.<br />

Staying updated about<br />

the economic environment and<br />

seeking advice from financial<br />

advisors can provide clarity and<br />

direction.<br />

Responding To<br />

Recessions: An<br />

Optimistic Approach<br />

Instead of seeing recessions<br />

solely as periods of adversity,<br />

they can be viewed as<br />

opportunities for reassessment<br />

and growth. Businesses can reevaluate<br />

their strategies, cut<br />

inefficiencies, and explore new<br />

markets. Individuals can invest<br />

in personal development, seek<br />

new skills, or even find assets<br />

at discounted prices. A major<br />

silver lining of a recession is<br />

that it would probably quickly<br />

bring down inflation. Not to be<br />

too redundant, but again, I’d<br />

rather face a mild to moderate<br />

recession than unchecked<br />

inflation.<br />

In conclusion, recessions, while<br />

challenging, are inevitable<br />

phases of the economic cycle.<br />

If we are in one or going to<br />

be, that’s okay! Recessions are<br />

not always severe and can be<br />

navigated successfully with<br />

understanding and prudence.<br />

By staying informed, making<br />

smart financial decisions,<br />

and maintaining an optimistic<br />

outlook, we can not only endure<br />

but also thrive during these<br />

economic ebbs. Just remember,<br />

we are your advisors through<br />

times of trouble, turmoil, tumult,<br />

and chaos, and even the good<br />

times (just in case the sun does<br />

rise tomorrow) … Come what<br />

may, we will be ready to deploy<br />

sound financial strategies for<br />

you.<br />

Recessions Are<br />

Not Always<br />

Severe And Can<br />

Be Navigated<br />

Successfully With<br />

Understanding<br />

And Prudence.<br />

7 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


Breaking News:<br />

Good Things Are Happening Constantly<br />

By Tom Craner<br />

Tom cultivates lifelong client-advisor relationships by using long-tested financial strategies<br />

that prioritize consumer protection.<br />

The future is not as bad as you think<br />

and here are some reasons why:<br />

Environmental<br />

Clean Energy: The shift towards renewable energy resources<br />

promises a cleaner, more sustainable future.<br />

Agricultural Evolution: New farming methods are increasing yield<br />

and reducing environmental impact.<br />

Water Purification: Advances in technology make clean water more<br />

accessible.<br />

Green Architecture: Buildings designed with energy efficiency<br />

and sustainability in mind.<br />

With the 2024 election around<br />

the corner, it will be difficult<br />

to avoid bad news in the coming<br />

year. I advise my clients to stay<br />

informed, but to be careful<br />

about their level of political<br />

intake. Whatever side you are on,<br />

the media outlets that you listen<br />

to are there to give you the bad<br />

news only. The media’s business<br />

model is to keep viewers scared<br />

so they continue to tune in. This<br />

is true Left, Right, or Center.<br />

During this political election<br />

season, I ask that you return to<br />

this article and read through<br />

this list as the months go on<br />

to remind yourself that what is<br />

happening on the U.S. political<br />

stage is NOT what is happening<br />

in the world as a whole. The<br />

U.S. political spectacle is only a<br />

microcosm of the most divisive<br />

elements of our society, and<br />

it can disrupt our ability to be<br />

content and rational.<br />

Ocean Cleanup Initiatives: Efforts to remove plastic and waste<br />

from the oceans.<br />

Desalination: Turning seawater into freshwater to address water scarcity.<br />

Efficient Waste Management: New methods to recycle and reduce waste.<br />

Technology<br />

Technological Advancements: Progress in technology promises<br />

better tools and solutions to challenges.<br />

Medical Innovations: Breakthroughs continue in areas like gene<br />

editing, cancer research, and disease eradication.<br />

Artificial Intelligence: AI can help solve complex problems, from<br />

logistics to medicine.<br />

3D Printing: Could revolutionize industries from health to construction.<br />

Preservation of History: Using technology to preserve ancient<br />

sites and documents.<br />

Nanotechnology: Potential in medicine, energy, and other fields.<br />

Robotics: Automation and robots assisting in industries from<br />

manufacturing to medicine.<br />

Food Security: New technologies and methods ensuring food<br />

supply meets demand.<br />

Self-driving Cars: Promises safer roads and improved transportation.<br />

<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong> 8


Efficiency<br />

Educational Accessibility: Online learning platforms make education available to many more people.<br />

Digital Revolution: The digitization of numerous industries promises efficiency and accessibility.<br />

Disaster Response: Improved global response to natural disasters.<br />

Transportation Evolution: Development of faster and more efficient transportation methods.<br />

Urban <strong>Planning</strong>: Cities are focusing on sustainable and efficient urban development.<br />

Telehealth: Making healthcare more accessible, especially in remote areas.<br />

E-commerce: Boosting economic growth and making products more accessible.<br />

Mental Health Awareness: Recognizing and addressing mental health as an essential aspect of overall health.<br />

Infrastructure Development: Investments in infrastructure improving daily life in many regions.<br />

Human Longevity: Research aiming to increase the healthy lifespan of humans.<br />

Global Connectivity<br />

Space Exploration: The drive to explore space will lead to colonization and technological leaps.<br />

Global Connectivity: The internet and technology are connecting people worldwide, fostering<br />

understanding and collaboration.<br />

Youth Engagement: Young people globally are more involved in shaping their futures.<br />

Literacy Rates: Global literacy rates continue to rise, leading to an informed populace.<br />

Global Poverty Decline: More people are being lifted out of extreme poverty than ever before.<br />

Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Many previously low-income countries are experiencing<br />

robust economic growth.<br />

Reduction in Global Conflict: Long-term trends show a decline in worldwide violent conflict.<br />

Philanthropic Movements: Large-scale philanthropy can address global challenges, from health to education.<br />

Cultural Exchange: Increased global travel and communication foster understanding between cultures.<br />

Scientific Collaboration: International scientific collaborations are solving global problems.<br />

Public Health Initiatives: Global efforts to combat diseases and epidemics.<br />

Tourism: Boosting economies and fostering global appreciation.<br />

Global Forums & Conferences: Platforms for nations to discuss and solve global issues collaboratively.<br />

Sports: International sporting events bringing nations together.<br />

International Aid: Countries assisting one another in times of need.<br />

This list is not exhaustive. Humanity continues to outlast and overcome every problem we are faced with.<br />

There is not an end to our potential for positive change, individually or collectively. Everything is going to be<br />

ok......Yes. Even if the other guy gets elected.<br />

9 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


China’s House of Cards<br />

By Alex Craner<br />

Comprehensive counseling with achievable and time-based goal setting for retirement and<br />

estate planning, without secrets or short-cuts, are ingrained features of Alex’s services.<br />

It has come time to speak<br />

bluntly about the problems<br />

that China is facing. My<br />

first recommendation is to<br />

recognize that China has<br />

mastered deception. China,<br />

more specifically the Chinese<br />

Communist Party, is a tactician<br />

in the game of whispers and<br />

lies. All bad news is suppressed,<br />

and all good news is amplified.<br />

Unfortunately for the CCP, the<br />

mask is slipping. Whether we<br />

examine it through a domestic,<br />

international, or heck, even<br />

an extraterrestrial lens, it is<br />

evident that the Chinese system<br />

is plagued by a multitude of<br />

problems that are becoming<br />

progressively more apparent.<br />

From economic challenges and a<br />

deteriorating political structure<br />

to unfavorable demographics<br />

and an extensive array of other<br />

concerns, the prospect of China’s<br />

collapse should no longer be a<br />

surprise to anyone.<br />

In recent months, a concerning<br />

trend has emerged in China,<br />

characterized by a multitude of<br />

issues across economic, political,<br />

and demographic fronts.<br />

Observers have noted a sharp<br />

decline in consumer spending<br />

and lending, which is particularly<br />

alarming in a country with a<br />

strong capitalist drive. China’s<br />

usual approach of injecting<br />

capital into every sector has hit<br />

a roadblock, leading to stagnant<br />

lending practices.<br />

The world has witnessed the<br />

dismissal of the disappearance<br />

of prominent figures, such as<br />

the foreign minister and defense<br />

minister, underscoring a growing<br />

sense of instability. Troubling<br />

statistics, including skyrocketing<br />

youth unemployment, have<br />

prompted authorities to cease<br />

collecting such data altogether.<br />

This data blackout extends to<br />

bond transactions, a crucial<br />

element for achieving a more<br />

sustainable economic structure.<br />

Even the much-touted “valueadded<br />

scale” strategy, which<br />

China had emphasized for years,<br />

appears to be abandoned.<br />

The situation can be described as<br />

a broad-scale societal, economic,<br />

and political breakdown.<br />

While the suddenness of these<br />

developments may be a shock to<br />

some, it is essential to recognize<br />

that these issues have been<br />

brewing for several years.<br />

From an external perspective,<br />

the world’s focus has been<br />

on its own challenges, such<br />

as the Ukraine conflict, Iran’s<br />

activities, and domestic political<br />

transitions in the United States,<br />

Europe, and Japan. China’s<br />

internal issues were somewhat<br />

overshadowed by these global<br />

events until they became too<br />

prominent to ignore.<br />

Within China, Chairman Xi<br />

initiated a series of purges<br />

under the pretext of an anticorruption<br />

campaign. This<br />

move systematically eliminated<br />

regional power centers and<br />

neutralized factions associated<br />

with previous presidents,<br />

effectively quashing potential<br />

rivals. In addition, data<br />

collection on various aspects,<br />

such as college dissertations<br />

and political biographies, has<br />

dwindled. These measures have<br />

created an information vacuum,<br />

hindering the rise of new<br />

political leaders.<br />

One of the critical inflection<br />

points that contributed to<br />

China’s current state is its<br />

demographic situation. The<br />

birth rate in China has dropped<br />

by nearly 70% since 2017, the<br />

fastest recorded decline in<br />

<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong> 10


human history. This decline in<br />

the working-age population<br />

has exacerbated issues related<br />

to consumption and labor costs.<br />

China’s industrial competitiveness<br />

has also been eroding.<br />

Geopolitical challenges, such<br />

as the Ukraine war and China’s<br />

vulnerability to energy and<br />

food supply disruptions, are<br />

adding to the complexity. The<br />

infrastructure between Russia<br />

and China is fragile, requiring<br />

goods to take a convoluted<br />

route around the world, making<br />

supply chains highly exposed.<br />

In the backdrop of these<br />

challenges, the Biden<br />

administration’s protectionist<br />

stance further complicates<br />

China’s access to global trade. It<br />

appears that China is caught in<br />

a perfect storm of issues from<br />

every angle, and Chairman Xi’s<br />

consolidation of power has<br />

left the system ill-prepared to<br />

address these emergencies.<br />

The demographic crisis and<br />

political failures are pushing<br />

China toward an economic<br />

breakdown, and it’s possible<br />

that external factors might<br />

accelerate this process. The<br />

biggest risk lies in whether the<br />

world can adapt quickly enough<br />

to these changes. We may not<br />

realize the extent of China’s<br />

problems until the products we<br />

rely on stop arriving.<br />

The industrial demand for<br />

products that China supplies<br />

is substantial, and we may<br />

face shortages if we don’t take<br />

swift measures to build up<br />

our own domestic capacity.<br />

The challenge lies in bridging<br />

the gap between our current<br />

reliance on Chinese products<br />

and our ability to replace them.<br />

The urgency of the situation<br />

suggests that waiting any longer<br />

is not an option.<br />

What this means for The United<br />

States and the rest of the world is,<br />

in the short-term, major shakeups<br />

in manufacturing and supply<br />

chains that will likely come with<br />

a host of uncomfortable puzzles<br />

to solve… but in the long-term?<br />

This will result in reprioritizing<br />

domestic production and selfreliance.<br />

In my view, this is a<br />

very good thing for our country.<br />

On the other side of whatever<br />

fallout may occur, we will be<br />

more secure and robust as a<br />

nation, no longer reliant upon<br />

an unfathomably corrupt and<br />

immoral regime halfway around<br />

the world. For every decision,<br />

there is a consequence. China’s<br />

decisions are reaching critical<br />

mass, and the consequence<br />

will be their collapse. We are<br />

watching the final decade of<br />

China’s rise, and I can only hope<br />

that something more just will<br />

rise from the ashes.<br />

Sources:<br />

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/CPREmatI.pdf https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_<br />

free/economics/bci/CPREmatI.pdf https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/press/chinaglobal-lei-june-<strong>2023</strong><br />

https://qz.com/438207/hsbc-will-no-longer-provide-one-of-the-best-gauges-of-chinas-economy<br />

https://www.un.org/en/desa/india-overtake-china-world-most-populous-country-april-<strong>2023</strong>-united-nations-projects<br />

11 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


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Answer Key on Pg 15<br />

13 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


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This custom approach, which began as a simple idea, has grown<br />

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Wealth<br />

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Advisor<br />

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Wealth<br />

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Wealth<br />

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Chief<br />

Compliance<br />

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Client Services Representative<br />

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Pg 13 Answer Key<br />

15 <strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong>


<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Planning</strong> <strong>Group</strong> 16<br />

Retirement <strong>Planning</strong> Specialists

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