YSM Issue 96.4

SPECIAL
Archives vs. Today
From The Archives: Science Fiction
Prediction of Scientific Fact
Editor's Note:
In the spirit of this special issue, we
traveled back in time and dove into
YSM’s archives, seeking to track how
our perception of scientific progress
has changed over the last century.
We found one YSM article written by
Yale physics major Henry Thwing in
1951 (reproduced here), to which we
asked one of our members to write
a response (pg. 35). In this side-byside
comparison, we examine how
our vision of artificial intelligence
(AI) technology—and how it is
presented in literary science fiction—
has changed between the midtwentieth
century and the present.
To most dyed-in-the-wool science fiction
fans, any suggestion that science fiction
may be utter nonsense is sacrilege. They
will immediately point to Jules Verne, the first
truly great science prophet. His submarine in
“Twenty Thousand Leagues under the Sea”,
written in 1870, has a design very similar to
present day construction and is run by an
electric motor and screw. The “Gymnote”, built
in 1888 was the first submarine to incorporate
this improvement.
Now, in modern science fiction, the writers
are attempting to predict what the world will
be many years from now. Even among stories
written in recent years, it is not difficult to find
those which have come true. “Deadline” by
Cleve Cartmill was so accurate in its description
of an atomic bomb when it appeared in 1944
that the author was investigated for connections
with the Manhattan Project. It is just as likely
that some of the stories being published today
will become realities in the near future.
Let us look into the various types of science
fiction stories to see just how and what the
author predicts.
***
[One] field in which the author attempts
a sincere prediction is that of robots. There
is a very important question in connection
with thinking machines which most of these
stories consider: “If we build intelligent robots,
will they become our masters?” The resultant
answers vary. Usually there is a condition
to all thinking the robots do which is built
into their machinery—no harm must be
done to any human being. Jack Williamson's
“Humanoids” follow this directive in an odd
way. They restrict the motions of humans so
severely that life becomes a hell of inaction.
Their actions are directed entirely by cold
logic. Isaac Asimov, in his series, has equipped
robots with the human emotion of a love
somewhat like maternal love, overcoming
this difficulty. Other emotions which have
been granted robots by their authors are
pride, respect, and even sexual love. A good
example of the latter appeared in a November
issue of Collier's under the title of “Epicac”, in
which an electronic calculator falls in love
with its female operator. In all these cases,
the author is trying to see what will be the
effect both on men and on the robots if the
machines should have the qualities which
he postulates.
Modern electronic calculators merely carry
out mathematical operations, introducing
no new variables and no original thought.
Even then, however, they exhibit properties
sometimes with a striking similarity to mental
aberration. If a calculator could be made which
by HENRY W. THWING, 1951
would correlate data in ways other than those
fed into it, then it would be a thinking machine
much as those stipulated by science fiction.
Sociological development offers another
field of prediction. Here, the writer observes the
recent development in our customs, especially
our growing dependence on science and
machines and extrapolates into the future. To
some, science will eventually yield a paradise
on Earth; to others, the cold objectivity of
science will fail to realize the importance of
the individual and the result of science in
the government (which both types of story
predict) will be a stricter life even than that
under a military government. Some authors
even predict a world of neuters in which
babies are developed by chemical processes.
Although this seems unlikely, it is nevertheless
an attempt to foretell the path along which our
society will advance.
***
Stories such as these offer food for thought.
Scientists and engineers make up a good share
of those who are avid fans of science fiction.
The stories tell them what might be invented
and then they frequently try to develop it.
When it became necessary to develop a
suitable dress for high-altitude flight, one
of the adopted styles was a copy of science
fiction’s space suit. In particular, the “goldfish
bowl” helmet (which allows the pilot to look
around without turning his whole body) was
used. (Astounding Science Fiction, Vol. L, No.
1, March 1948. “The Space Suit” by L. Sprague
de Camp)
One should not criticize the fantastic nature
of science fiction before carefully considering
the many consequences it has led to in
modern science. The fantasy of other ages
has continued to be the reality of the present.
With an honest look at the history of scientific
discovery, who can claim to deny the heuristic
value of the wild ideas of fiction? Indeed, will
it not continue to be true that the seeds of
science fiction today will yield a harvest of
new scientific discovery tomorrow? ■
34 Yale Scientific Magazine January 1951 (Reprint) www.yalescientific.org