West Newsmagazine 2-21-24

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Winds of change
in the Black vote
Data shows that winds of political
change are blowing among Black voters.
In volatile times like now, predictions
can be made with only the greatest caution.
However, it seems clear that something
is going on and Black voters are breaking
with past voting patterns.
The New York Times reported last
November that, per its polling with Siena
College, 22% of Black voters in six key
battleground states – Arizona, Georgia,
Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin – indicated they would support
Republican Donald Trump.
In 2020, Trump gained ground with
Blacks, picking up 12% of the Black vote,
up from 8% in 2016. But any suggestion
that any Republican candidate might pick
up 20-plus percent of the Black vote is
revolutionary.
The last time the Black vote went beyond
the teens for a Republican was in 1960,
when Richard Nixon got 32% of the Black
vote, in a close election he lost to John
Kennedy.
The next election in 1964 was, for Blacks,
about the Civil Rights Movement. The
Republican candidate, Barry Goldwater,
opposed passage of the Civil Rights Act
and got 4% of the Black vote. Republicans
have not recovered since.
Nixon returned and won the presidency
in 1968 and 1972. However, Blacks supported
him at a fraction of what he received
in 1960 – Nixon getting 10% of the Black
vote in 1968 and 13% in 1972.
In a USA Today/Suffolk University Poll
reported in January, only 63% of Black
voters indicated support for President Joe
Biden, compared to 87% who voted for
him in 2020.
The USA Today/Suffolk University poll
shows a less compelling picture of Blacks
moving toward Trump. That poll shows
12% support for Trump, exactly where he
was in 2020.
However, the poll shows Black sentiment
moving away from Democrats with
almost 20% of Black voters indicating they
would support a third party candidate.
Now we have new data from Gallup
reporting that “The Democratic Party’s
wide lead over Republicans in Black
Americans’ party preferences has shrunk
by nearly 20 points over the past three
years.”
Among Black Americans surveyed, 66%
said they identify as Democrat/lean Democrat
and 19% Republican/lean Republican,
for a differential of 47 points.
A little over three years ago in 2020, in
the same survey, 77% of Black Americans
identified as Democrat/lean Democrat,
compared to 11% identifying as Republican/lean
Republican, for a differential of
66 points. In just three years, the differential
between Black support for Democrats
and for Republicans has shrunk 19 points.
Overall, the 47-point differential in this
latest survey is the smallest since Gallup
first started doing the survey in 1999, when
the differential was 72 points.
With recent elections decided by tiny
margins in battleground states, a fundamental
change in voting behavior by one
key demographic – Blacks – can be a game
changer.
The implications over the long haul are
profound given the demographic changes
taking place, with the percentage of the
white vote, which accounts for the majority
of Republican votes, shrinking in each
election. In 2020, whites accounted for
67% of the vote. This compared to 1980
when the white vote stood at 88%.
Per the Census Bureau, the percentage
of the U.S. population that is white will
be down to 45% by 2060. So, any movement
of Blacks, and Hispanics, away from
Democrats means a lot.
Why is this apparent movement of
Blacks from Democrats happening?
Here’s one hypothesis I propose from the
New York Times/Siena College Poll.
That poll shows that, relative to whites,
Blacks care more about economic issues
than social issues. Sixty-five percent of
Blacks say economic issues are most
important compared to 53% of whites.
Twenty-one percent of Blacks say social
issues are most important compared to
33% of whites.
Perhaps we are entering new times when
fewer Blacks look to government for social
justice and more want economic growth
and opportunity.
This means Republicans.
© 2024 Creators.com
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February 21, 2024
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