Radiation Protection Radiation Protection
Radiation Protection Radiation Protection
Radiation Protection Radiation Protection
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WNU–Summer Institute 2012<br />
Christ Church Lecture Hall, University of Oxford, UK; August 2th Christ Church Lecture Hall, University of Oxford, UK; August 2 , 2012<br />
th , 2012<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> <strong>Protection</strong><br />
1. Epistemology of <strong>Radiation</strong><br />
2. International Paradigms<br />
Abel J. González<br />
Vice-President Vice Vice-President President of the International Commission on Radiological <strong>Protection</strong> Protec <strong>Protection</strong> tion (ICRP)<br />
Representative to the United Nations Scientific Committee on the th the e Effects of Atomic <strong>Radiation</strong> (UNSCEAR)<br />
Member of the Commission of Safety Standards of the IAEA<br />
Autoridad Regulatoria Nuclear; Nuclear Nuclear; ; Av. Av. Av. del Libertador 8250; (C1429BNP) ( (C1429BNP) C1429BNP) Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Aires Aires, , Argentina<br />
+54 +54 +54 11 6323 1758; (official) (official) (official) agonzalez@arn.gob.ar; (private) (private) (private) abel_j_gonzalez@yahoo.com<br />
1
Content<br />
FIRST PART<br />
Epistemology:<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> Science and its Limitations<br />
Quantification<br />
Levels<br />
Effects<br />
SECOND PART<br />
<strong>Protection</strong> Paradigm<br />
The International <strong>Radiation</strong> <strong>Protection</strong> System<br />
The International Organizations<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> <strong>Protection</strong> Recommendations<br />
Global Regime<br />
2
FIRST PART<br />
Epistemology:<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> Science and its Limitations<br />
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(1)<br />
Quantification<br />
of <strong>Radiation</strong> Exposure<br />
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Radioactive<br />
substance<br />
(radioactivity<br />
measured in<br />
Becquerels<br />
[or curie])<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> emitted<br />
(radiation fluence)<br />
Absorbed dose<br />
(incurred due to<br />
radioactivity<br />
inside the body<br />
or radiation fluence<br />
from outside<br />
–measured in gray<br />
[or rad])<br />
5
Activity,A<br />
(bequerel or curie)<br />
Fluence,Φ<br />
Absorbed dose, D<br />
(gray or rad)
Absorbed dose, D<br />
(gray or rad)<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong><br />
weighting factor, w R<br />
Equivalent dose, H T<br />
(sievert or rem)
Equivalent dose, H T<br />
(sievert or rem)<br />
Tissue<br />
weighting factor), wT Effective dose, E<br />
(sievert or rem)
Activity<br />
(Bq)<br />
Fluence<br />
(cm-2 Fluence<br />
(cm ) -2 )<br />
Conversion<br />
Factor<br />
(Sv Bq-1 Conversion<br />
Factor<br />
(Sv Bq ) -1 )<br />
Absorbed<br />
Dose<br />
(Gy)<br />
Conversion<br />
Factor<br />
(Sv cm2 Conversion<br />
Factor<br />
(Sv cm ) 2 )<br />
w R<br />
Equivalent<br />
Dose (organ)<br />
(Sv)<br />
w T<br />
Efective<br />
Dose<br />
(Sv)<br />
9
(2)<br />
International Estimates of Global<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> Exposure Levels
Natural<br />
Cosmic Cosmic rays<br />
Terrestrial<br />
Terrestrial<br />
Inhalation<br />
Inhalation<br />
[radon]<br />
Sources<br />
Artificial<br />
Medical Medical<br />
Military Military<br />
Nuclear Nuclear Power<br />
Occupational<br />
Occupational<br />
Accidents<br />
Accidents<br />
11
Natural Background<br />
Few people<br />
In few areas <br />
Many people<br />
In many areas <br />
Majority of people<br />
around the world <br />
~100<br />
~ 10<br />
~2.4<br />
~1<br />
annual dose<br />
mSv/year<br />
VERY HIGH<br />
TYPICALLY HIGH<br />
AVERAGE<br />
MINIMUM<br />
12
OSU, Stillwater, OK, USA, February 2008<br />
13
Exposure to natural sources<br />
Source Global average dose Typical range<br />
(mSv per year) (mSv per year)<br />
External exposure<br />
Cosmic rays 0.4 0.3 to 1.0<br />
Terrestrial gamma rays 0.5 0.3 to 1.0<br />
Internal exposure<br />
Inhalation (mainly radon) 1.3 0.2 to 10<br />
Ingestion 0.3 0.2 to 1.0<br />
Total 2.4 1 to 13<br />
highest…up to above 100!<br />
14
Medical<br />
sources
Radio-diagnostic procedures<br />
Average annual frequency per 1000<br />
1308<br />
High<br />
Health-care<br />
332<br />
Medium<br />
Health-care<br />
20<br />
Low<br />
Health-care<br />
482<br />
Global<br />
average<br />
16
Annual average per-caput dose<br />
(in mSv)<br />
1.88<br />
High<br />
Health-care<br />
0.32<br />
Medium<br />
Health-care<br />
0.03<br />
Low<br />
Health-care<br />
0.61<br />
Global<br />
average<br />
17
No. of procedures (millions)<br />
70.0<br />
60.0<br />
50.0<br />
40.0<br />
30.0<br />
20.0<br />
10.0<br />
0.0<br />
procedures by year (millions)<br />
Annual growth > 10%/yr<br />
Annual growth of >10% per yea<br />
U.S. population < 1%/yr<br />
18.3<br />
19.5<br />
21.0<br />
22.6<br />
CT scans by year in US (millions<br />
25.1<br />
26.3<br />
Computerized tomography (CT)<br />
30.6<br />
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006<br />
34.9<br />
39.6<br />
45.4<br />
50.1<br />
53.9<br />
57.6<br />
62.0<br />
18
Military activities<br />
20
NUMBER<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
50<br />
100<br />
1945<br />
Nuclear weapons tests<br />
Atmospheric tests<br />
Underground tests<br />
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000<br />
21
Annual effective dose (mSv)<br />
Doses due to atmospheric nuclear testing<br />
0.12<br />
0.1<br />
0.08<br />
0.06<br />
0.04<br />
0.02<br />
0<br />
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005<br />
Year<br />
22
Civil nuclear power<br />
23
Global average levels<br />
Natural<br />
sources<br />
80%<br />
Source: UNSCEAR 2000 Report<br />
Medical<br />
examinations<br />
20%<br />
Weapons<br />
fallout<br />
Occupational exposures<br />
25
Annual effective dose (mSv)<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
Nuclear industry<br />
Millions<br />
exposed<br />
Man-made sources Natural sources<br />
Defence<br />
Medicine<br />
Coal mining<br />
Other mining<br />
Aircrew<br />
0 10 20 30<br />
Other workplaces<br />
Artificial<br />
Natural<br />
26
Global annual per caput dose (mSv)<br />
27
Annual per caput dose (mSv) for USA<br />
28
In summary:<br />
Patients are<br />
being exposed<br />
to increased<br />
radiation<br />
levels<br />
29
(3)<br />
Recent Developments on the epistemology of<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> Health Effects<br />
(Method, validity and scope of the scientific knowledge<br />
on the detrimental effects of radiation exposure)<br />
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Chromosomes<br />
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DNA<br />
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Chromosomes<br />
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are a<br />
condensed<br />
packing of<br />
DNA<br />
1400<br />
nano<br />
meters<br />
0.2 meters!<br />
2 nanometers<br />
33
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The Enciclopedy of Life<br />
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Bases Letters<br />
Codons Words<br />
Introns Interruptions<br />
Exons Paragraphs<br />
Genes Chapters<br />
Chromosomes Volumes<br />
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<strong>Radiation</strong> harm to DNA<br />
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Mutation!<br />
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Many other<br />
mutations occur due<br />
to DNA miscopying,<br />
thermal agitation, etc.<br />
Usually they can be<br />
correctly repaired by<br />
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copying the DNA<br />
template.<br />
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What is the<br />
problem then?:<br />
the chromosome is<br />
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a very complex<br />
packing of DNA<br />
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nucleosomes<br />
41
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0.5 Mev <br />
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10 nm<br />
2nm<br />
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Chromosomes deletions<br />
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Chromosomes Translocations<br />
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Chromosomal aberrations are easily<br />
identifiable in the microscope<br />
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adiation<br />
hits a cell<br />
nucleus!<br />
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No change<br />
DNA mutation<br />
49
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Probability<br />
of mutation<br />
p = a D + b D2 p = a D + b D2 p = a D<br />
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pD (a D + b D2 ) e-cD pD (a D + b D2 ) e-cD Dose<br />
50
DNA mutation<br />
p a D a D D 3)Cell survives<br />
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1) Mutation<br />
repaired<br />
2) Cell dies<br />
but mutated<br />
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No effects<br />
Deterministic<br />
Effects (>~1Sv)<br />
Stochastic<br />
effects<br />
51
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First possible outcome:<br />
mutation is repaired<br />
Mutation<br />
repaired<br />
Viable Cell<br />
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Second possible outcome:<br />
cell killing (apoptosis)<br />
Unviable Cell<br />
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Cell killingat around 1000mSv <br />
deterministic effects:burns, organ failure,<br />
death!<br />
100%<br />
Probability<br />
Acute dose<br />
> ~1000 mSv<br />
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<strong>Radiation</strong> accidents involving<br />
masive cell killing are rare<br />
Since 1944 there were around 400 accidents<br />
worldwide.<br />
Approximately 3000 persons were injured,<br />
with 120 fatalities (including 28 Chernobyl<br />
victims).<br />
55
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Third possible outcome:<br />
viable but mutated cell<br />
Cell survives<br />
but mutated<br />
Altered process<br />
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Normal process<br />
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Altered process<br />
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Cell survives<br />
but mutated<br />
Stochastic effects<br />
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Stochastic effects<br />
Cancer<br />
Hereditable<br />
Antenatal<br />
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Cancer<br />
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<strong>Radiation</strong><br />
mutates DNA<br />
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Prevalent opinion on<br />
radiation-induced cancer<br />
Tumour<br />
promotion<br />
Failure to<br />
repair DNA<br />
INMUNE SYSTEM<br />
Malignant<br />
conversion<br />
Viable cell with<br />
carcinogenes<br />
Metastasis of<br />
malignancy<br />
66
Estimates of the Risk of Cancer due to<br />
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<strong>Radiation</strong> Exposure<br />
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Radioepidemiology<br />
(Epidemia (Gk): prevalence of disease)<br />
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Control group<br />
“N” people<br />
“C” cancers<br />
“n” probability of<br />
‘natural ‘natural’ natural’ cancer<br />
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Exposed group<br />
“N” people<br />
“E” cancers<br />
“n” probability of<br />
‘natural ‘natural’cancer<br />
natural’cancer cancer<br />
‘p D’ probability of<br />
‘radiation ‘radiation’ radiation’ cancer<br />
70
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Difficult to<br />
assess!<br />
C<br />
=n N<br />
Number<br />
of<br />
cancers<br />
in<br />
control<br />
group<br />
E-C<br />
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E<br />
= n N<br />
+<br />
p d D N<br />
Number<br />
of<br />
cancers<br />
in<br />
exposed<br />
group<br />
71
UNSCEAR has reviewed many many<br />
epidemiological data on effects of radiation in<br />
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exposed populations<br />
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The radium dial painters,…<br />
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…the early x-rays doctors and patients…<br />
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..the Mayak cohort of workers…<br />
MAYAK<br />
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..the survivors of Hiroshima y Nagasaki..<br />
..the survivors of Hiroshima y Nagasaki..<br />
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…all these victims of radiation exposure have<br />
unwillingly contributed to the<br />
UNSCEAR’s epidemiological assessments.<br />
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Cohort of Hiroshima & Nagasaki<br />
(LIFE SPAN STUDY, LSS)<br />
Slide 6<br />
Mt.Hiji<br />
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Solid Cancer Mortality<br />
47 years of follow-up (1950-1997)<br />
Exposed population: 9,335 (10,127) cancer deaths<br />
Reference population: 8,895 (9,648) cancer deaths<br />
~440 (479) cancers attributable to radiation (5%)<br />
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Preston et al, Radiat Res 160:381-407, 2003<br />
(updated figures)<br />
79
Lifetime cancer mortality risk<br />
(after 1000 mSv acute dose)<br />
~ 0.6-1.0%. for leukæmia<br />
and<br />
~4.3–7.2% for all solid cancers combined,<br />
(lower for men than for women)<br />
Lifetime cancer risk estimates for those exposed as children might be a factor of<br />
2 to 3 times higher than the estimates for a population exposed at all ages.<br />
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UNSCEAR Estimates of NOMINAL Cancer Risk<br />
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Hereditable Effects<br />
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Prevalent opinion on the induction of<br />
hereditable effects from radiation exposure<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong><br />
Mutes the DNA<br />
of a Germinal<br />
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Cell<br />
Failure to<br />
Repair<br />
Viable Sperm<br />
or Ovum<br />
Containing<br />
Defective Genes<br />
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The risk is so low that the estimation has<br />
to be based on animal studies<br />
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Hereditable Effects<br />
Total risk to first generation<br />
following parental exposure:<br />
~ 0.2% per Sv<br />
>1/10 the risk of fatal carcinogenesis<br />
constitutes 0.5% of baseline<br />
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Antenatal Effects<br />
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1000mSv<br />
= IQ<br />
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Shift in the IQ curve:<br />
30 IQ units per 1000 mSv incurred during the 8-15 weeks<br />
1000mSv<br />
= IQ<br />
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Latest news<br />
89
Summary<br />
of the scientific knowledge<br />
93
Likelihood<br />
of health<br />
effects<br />
100%<br />
(certainty)<br />
~ 10%<br />
~5%<br />
(UNSCEAR<br />
estimate)<br />
~ 1%<br />
Approx.<br />
lower bound of<br />
epidemiological<br />
knowledge<br />
Estimated Estimated likelihood likelihood of of cancer<br />
cancer<br />
Subjective<br />
(Bayesian)<br />
estimation<br />
~0,1<br />
Approx.<br />
lower bound<br />
of pathological<br />
knowledge<br />
Tissue reactions<br />
Clinical diagnosis<br />
(individual pathology)<br />
Cytogenetic exposure indicators<br />
General radiobiological information<br />
radiation<br />
syndromes<br />
and death<br />
Increase incidence of malignancies<br />
Statistical estimates (epidemiology of populations)<br />
Frequentist<br />
(Bernoullian)<br />
estimation<br />
~1 ~10<br />
Dose (Sv)<br />
94
Likelihood<br />
of health<br />
effects<br />
100%<br />
(certainty)<br />
~ 10%<br />
~5%<br />
(UNSCEAR<br />
estimate)<br />
~ 1%<br />
Typical<br />
Background<br />
Approx.<br />
lower bound of<br />
epidemiological<br />
knowledge<br />
Estimated Estimated likelihood likelihood of of cancer cancer<br />
~0,1<br />
Region of inference<br />
of radiation risks<br />
Approx.<br />
lower bound<br />
of pathological<br />
knowledge<br />
Increased<br />
syndromes<br />
and death<br />
Dose (Sv)<br />
~1 ~10<br />
Region of individual<br />
attribution of effects<br />
Region of collective attribution of effects<br />
95
Likelihood<br />
of health<br />
effects<br />
100%<br />
(certainty)<br />
~ 10%<br />
~5%<br />
(UNSCEAR<br />
estimate)<br />
~ 1%<br />
Typical<br />
Background<br />
Approx.<br />
lower bound of<br />
epidemiological<br />
knowledge<br />
Estimated Estimated likelihood likelihood of of cancer cancer<br />
~0,1<br />
Region of inference<br />
of radiation risks<br />
Approx.<br />
lower bound<br />
of pathological<br />
knowledge<br />
Increased<br />
syndromes<br />
and death<br />
Dose (Gy)<br />
~1 ~10<br />
Region of individual<br />
attribution of effects<br />
Region of collective attribution of effects<br />
96
Total<br />
background<br />
incidence of<br />
effects<br />
Presumed<br />
radiation-related<br />
background incidence<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong>-unrelated<br />
background<br />
incidence<br />
Postulated<br />
likelihood of health effects<br />
Background<br />
annual dose<br />
(average 2.4,<br />
typical 10 mSv y -1 )<br />
Incremental dose<br />
0.005%/mSv<br />
Nominal incremental<br />
likelihood<br />
of health effects<br />
Dose<br />
97
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Take away points<br />
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Activity bequerel<br />
Dose sievert (1 Sv = 1000 milliSieverts)<br />
milliSieverts<br />
milliSieverts) )<br />
(mSv (mSv) mSv)<br />
Background 2.4 mSv/y<br />
Background 2.4 mSv/y (up up to above 100 mSv) mSv mSv)<br />
Medical <br />
Nuclear <br />
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Dose<br />
Very low dose:<br />
about 10 mSv or less<br />
Low dose:<br />
towards 100 mSv<br />
Moderate dose:<br />
towards<br />
1000 mSv (acute whole<br />
body dose)<br />
High dose:<br />
above 1000 mSv (acute<br />
whole body dose)<br />
Effects on<br />
individuals<br />
No acute effects;<br />
extremely small additional<br />
cancer risk<br />
No acute effects;<br />
subsequent additional<br />
cancer risk of less than 1%<br />
Nausea, vomiting possible,<br />
mild bone marrow<br />
depression;<br />
subsequent additional<br />
cancer risk of about 10%<br />
Certain nausea, likely bone<br />
marrow syndrome; high risk<br />
of death from about 4000<br />
mSv (without medical treatment).<br />
Significant additional<br />
cancer risk!<br />
Consequences for<br />
an exposed<br />
population<br />
No observable increase in<br />
the incidence of cancer, even<br />
in a large exposed group<br />
Possible observable increase<br />
in the incidence of cancer, if<br />
the exposed group is very<br />
large (e.g., >100,000 people)<br />
Probable observable<br />
increase in the incidence of<br />
cancer, if the exposed group<br />
is more than a few hundred<br />
people<br />
Observable increase in the<br />
incidence of cancer<br />
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… above the prevalent background dose,<br />
an increment in dose<br />
is assumed to result (for rad. prot. purposes)<br />
in a proportional increment<br />
in the probability of stochastic effects of<br />
0.005% per mSv<br />
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Remember!<br />
1. <strong>Radiation</strong> exposure at high acute levels,<br />
e.g. above several thousand of millisieverts<br />
is very dangerous.<br />
2. <strong>Radiation</strong> exposure at low chronic levels,<br />
e.g. towards tens of millisieverts per year,<br />
presents an extremely low risk.<br />
3. <strong>Radiation</strong> exposure at very low chronic levels,<br />
e.g. < 1 millisievert per year,<br />
is not an individual health issue.<br />
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agonzalez@arn.gob.ar<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Thank you!<br />
Av. del Libertador 8250<br />
Buenos Aires<br />
Argentina<br />
WNU, ,<br />
+541163231758<br />
103
Additional information to the<br />
FIRST PART<br />
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A close book?<br />
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The Health Effects<br />
of <strong>Radiation</strong><br />
105
Physics<br />
and<br />
chemistry<br />
Biology<br />
10 -15 s. 10 -9 s. 10 -3 s. 10 2 m. 100 years<br />
Exposure<br />
Physiology<br />
?<br />
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Epidemio-<br />
logy<br />
Time<br />
Manifestation<br />
of<br />
effects<br />
The time scale of the phenomena limits knowledge.<br />
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106
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New UNSCEAR’s assessments<br />
Epidemiological evaluation of cardiovascular disease<br />
Non-targeted and delayed effects of radiation exposure<br />
Effects of ionizing radiation on the immune system<br />
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Cardiovascular diseases<br />
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Chernobyl workers,<br />
atomic bomb survivors, and<br />
radiotherapy patients …<br />
… seem to suffer a higher risk of<br />
cardiovascular diseases.<br />
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‘Non-targeted’<br />
and<br />
delayed effects<br />
of radiation exposure<br />
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Adaptive Response<br />
+<br />
Mutation<br />
Mutations<br />
Mutations<br />
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conditioning<br />
dose<br />
challenging<br />
dose<br />
conditioning<br />
dose<br />
Adaptive response<br />
+<br />
challenging<br />
dose<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
response<br />
response<br />
response<br />
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The role of apoptosis<br />
(cell killing by mutations)<br />
If at low doses, apoptosis >> carcinogenesis...<br />
...<br />
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..then.. hormesis! hormesis hormesis!<br />
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Mutation<br />
Rate<br />
Apoptosis<br />
hormesis<br />
Carcinogenesis<br />
Dose rate<br />
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Apoptosis<br />
115
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Genomic instability …<br />
Genomic instability …<br />
… or … increased rate of acquisition of<br />
alterations in the genome.<br />
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Basic paradigms of radiobiology<br />
Damage fixed in DNA of irradiated cell,<br />
if not lethal, transmitted to descendant<br />
Effects occur in cells whose<br />
nucleus crossed by radiation
Challenge to the paradigm<br />
Mutation Chromosomal<br />
aberration<br />
Genomic instability<br />
Cellular<br />
death<br />
Mitotic failure:<br />
aneuploid<br />
Micronucleus
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Bystander effects<br />
The so-called “bystander” effect is the ability of irradiated<br />
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cells to convey damage to neighbouring cells<br />
not directly irradiated.<br />
120
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“Bystander” effect<br />
121
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Signals via intercellular unions<br />
(Azamm 2001)<br />
Signals via medium/plasma<br />
ROS<br />
Nitric oxide<br />
Cytokines<br />
TGF<br />
(Lehnert 1997)<br />
122
Clastogenic plasma factors<br />
There is a large body of evidence that blood plasma from<br />
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irradiated animals and humans can contain so-called<br />
“clastogenic plasma factors” capable of inducing<br />
chromosomal damage in unexposed cells.<br />
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Abscopal effects<br />
An abscopal effect is said to occur if there is a significant<br />
response in a tissue that is physically separate from the<br />
region of the body exposed to radiation.<br />
Human & Experimental Toxicology, Volume 23, Issue 2, 1 February 2004, Arnold<br />
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Effects in another organ<br />
Irradiation of<br />
an organ<br />
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Effects of ionizing radiation on the<br />
immune system<br />
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Does radiation exposure affect the immune system?<br />
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Infections<br />
Cancer<br />
Immune<br />
system<br />
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SECOND PART<br />
<strong>Protection</strong> Paradigm:<br />
The International <strong>Radiation</strong> <strong>Protection</strong> System<br />
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(1)<br />
The International Organizations<br />
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Epistemology of radiation<br />
Method, validity and scope of the scientific<br />
knowledge on radiation<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> <strong>Protection</strong> Paradigm<br />
Conceptual model for keeping people protected<br />
Global <strong>Radiation</strong> Safety Regime<br />
Establishing international safety standards and<br />
providing for their global application<br />
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UNSCEAR<br />
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The United Nations Scientific Committee on<br />
the Effects of Atomic <strong>Radiation</strong> (UNSCEAR)<br />
Established by the UN General Assembly in 1955<br />
Assess levels & effects of ionizing radiation<br />
Reports findings to Assembly<br />
Scientists from 21 UN Member States<br />
Other States provide relevant data<br />
Holds annual sessions in Vienna<br />
UNEP arranges secretariat and provides support<br />
133
Member States on UNSCEAR<br />
Argentina<br />
Brazil<br />
Mexico<br />
Peru<br />
Australia<br />
China<br />
India<br />
Indonesia<br />
Japan<br />
Korea<br />
Pakistan<br />
Canada<br />
USA<br />
Egypt<br />
Sudan<br />
Belgium<br />
Belarus<br />
Finland<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Poland<br />
Russia<br />
Slovakia<br />
Spain<br />
Sweden<br />
UK<br />
Ukraine<br />
134
The latest UNSCEAR reports<br />
Sources Efects<br />
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Hereditable<br />
New<br />
UNSCEAR 2000 Report (sources): http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/2000_1.html<br />
UNSCEAR 2000 Report (effects): http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/2000_2.html<br />
UNSCEAR 2001Report (hereditary): http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/2001.html<br />
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UNSCEAR 2006 Report (new): http://www.unscear.org/unscear/en/publications/2006_1.html<br />
135
ICRP<br />
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The International Commission<br />
on Radiological <strong>Protection</strong> (ICRP)<br />
Registered Registered charity established to advance<br />
radiological protection for the public benefit<br />
by providing recommendations and guidance.<br />
138<br />
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First ICRP meeting 1928<br />
139
140
141
IAEA<br />
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The International Atomic<br />
Energy Agency (IAEA)<br />
143<br />
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The IAEA is the only organ within the UN<br />
system with specific statutory responsibilities<br />
on radiation protection and safety<br />
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to establish<br />
standards<br />
IAEA<br />
statutory safety functions<br />
to provide for<br />
their application<br />
to service international conventions<br />
to service international conventions<br />
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IAEA Safety Standards<br />
http://www-ns.iaea.org/standards/<br />
146
International Labour Organisation<br />
147
<strong>Radiation</strong> <strong>Protection</strong> Convention No. 115<br />
(1960) Date of entry into force: 17.6.1962<br />
Argentina 15.6.1978<br />
Azerbaijan 19.5.1992<br />
Barbados 8.5.1967<br />
Belarus 26.2.1968<br />
Belgium2.7.1965<br />
Beliz 15.12.1983<br />
Brazil 5.9.1966<br />
Chile 14.10.1994<br />
Czech Rep. 1.1.1993<br />
Denmark 7.2.1974<br />
Djibouti 3.8.1978<br />
Ecuador 9.3.1970<br />
Egypt 18.3.1964<br />
Finland 16.10.1978<br />
France 18.11.1971<br />
Germany 26.9.1973<br />
48 ratifications<br />
Ghana 7.11.1961<br />
Norway 17.6.1961<br />
Greece 4.6.1982<br />
Guinea 12.12.1966<br />
Guyana 8.6.1966<br />
Hungary 8.6.1968<br />
India 17.11.1975<br />
Iraq 26.10.1962<br />
Italy 5.5.1971<br />
Japan 31.7.1973<br />
Kyrgyzstan 31.3.1992<br />
Paraguay 10.7.1967<br />
Poland 23.12.1964<br />
Portugal 17.3.1994<br />
Russian Fed. 22.9.1967<br />
Slovakia 1.1.1993<br />
Spain 17.7.1962<br />
Sri Lanka 18.6.1986<br />
Sweden 12.4.1961<br />
Latvia 8.3.1993<br />
Switzerland 29.5.1963<br />
Lebanon 6.12.1977<br />
Luxembourg 8.4.2008<br />
Mexico 19.10.1983<br />
Netherlands 29.11.1966<br />
Nicaragua 1.10.1981<br />
Syrian A. R. 15.1.1964<br />
Tajikistan 26.11.1993<br />
Turkey 15.11.1968<br />
Ukraine 19.6.1968<br />
U.K. 9.3.1962<br />
Uruguay 22.9.1992<br />
148
(2)<br />
The International <strong>Radiation</strong><br />
<strong>Protection</strong> Recommendations<br />
The conceptual model for keeping people safe from radiation exposure<br />
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In paradigm choice there is no standard higher<br />
than the assent of the relevant community<br />
Thomas S. Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, p. 93 (1960).<br />
150
Total<br />
background<br />
incidence of<br />
effects<br />
Presumed<br />
radiation-related<br />
background incidence<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong>-unrelated<br />
background<br />
incidence<br />
Postulated<br />
likelihood of health effects<br />
Background<br />
annual dose<br />
(average 2.4,<br />
typical 10 mSv y -1 )<br />
Incremental dose<br />
0.005%/mSv<br />
Nominal incremental<br />
likelihood<br />
of health effects<br />
Dose<br />
151
ICRP had to introduce the concept of<br />
‘detriment-adjusted’<br />
‘nominal’ risk coefficients<br />
152
Detriment-adjusted Nominal Risk Coefficients<br />
Risk Coefficient: A numeral, expressed in % Sv-1 Risk Coefficient: A numeral, expressed in % Sv , which<br />
-1 , which<br />
–multiplied by dose– quantifies the plausibility of harm.<br />
Nominal: The stated numeral does not necessarily<br />
correspond to its real value: it relates to hypothetical (no<br />
real) people who are averaged over age and sex.<br />
Detriment-adjusted: The numeral is multidimensional,<br />
expressing plausible expectation of harm, and including<br />
inter alia the weighted plausibility of fatal and non-fatal<br />
harm, and life-lost should the harm actually occur.<br />
153
Detriment-adjusted nominal risk coefficients<br />
Nominal<br />
Population<br />
Whole<br />
Adult<br />
Cancer &<br />
leukæmia<br />
5.5<br />
4.1<br />
[% Sv -1 ]<br />
Hereditable<br />
0.2<br />
0.1<br />
Total<br />
5.7<br />
4.2<br />
Rounded value used in RP standards~5%Sv-1 Rounded value used in RP standards~5%Sv-1 154
Time<br />
<strong>Protection</strong> basic dogma<br />
Shielding<br />
Distance<br />
……..but…..it depend on the situation!<br />
155
Time?<br />
156
The principles of<br />
radiological protection
The principles of radiological protection<br />
• The Principle of Justification<br />
• The Principle of Optimization of <strong>Protection</strong><br />
• The Principle of Dose Limits<br />
• The Principle of <strong>Protection</strong> of Future<br />
Generations and the Environment
The Principle of Justification<br />
• Any decision that alters the radiation exposure<br />
situation should do more good than harm.
Justification<br />
Good > bad
adioactive discharges<br />
(bad)<br />
Is the installation justied?<br />
good > bad?<br />
Electricity)<br />
(good)
Was evacuation justified?
Justification!
The Principle of Optimization of <strong>Protection</strong><br />
• Best protection under the<br />
prevailing circumstances<br />
(The likelihood of incurring exposure, the number of<br />
people exposed, and the magnitude of their individual<br />
doses should all be kept as low as reasonably achievable,<br />
taking into account economic and societal factors.)
Detriment<br />
Detriment +Social cost<br />
Optimal<br />
Social cost<br />
RP level<br />
167
The Principle of Dose Limitation<br />
• The total dose to any individual should not<br />
exceed appropriate limits, constraints or<br />
reference levels.
Restrictions: Restrictions:<br />
dose limits and constraints<br />
Natural<br />
background<br />
radiation<br />
Activity introduced<br />
Expected<br />
additional<br />
dose<br />
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Nuclear power<br />
Mining<br />
Wastes<br />
Transport<br />
Dose limit<br />
Industry<br />
Hospitals<br />
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Source constraint<br />
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Extant<br />
dose<br />
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Averteble<br />
dose<br />
Reference<br />
level<br />
172<br />
172
The principle of protection of future<br />
generations and the environment<br />
Future generations must be protected against radiation.<br />
The environment must also be protected in order to:<br />
maintain biological diversity,<br />
ensure the conservation of species, and<br />
protect the health and status of natural habitats, communities,<br />
and ecosystems<br />
173
How to protect the future?
D<br />
Doses after 1 year of operation<br />
1 st year 2 nd year 3 rd year …. … …. n th year<br />
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t
Doses after 2 years of operation<br />
D<br />
2 nd year<br />
3 rd year<br />
4 th year ….<br />
1 st year 2 nd year 3 rd year …. … …. n th year<br />
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…<br />
….<br />
t
Doses after 3 years of operation<br />
D<br />
2 nd year<br />
3 rd year<br />
3 rd year<br />
4 th year<br />
5 th year<br />
4 th year ….<br />
1 st year 2 nd year 3 rd year …. … …. n th year<br />
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….<br />
…<br />
…<br />
….<br />
t
CONTROL<br />
EQUILIBRIUM: BUILD-UP BUILD UP<br />
178
Types of exposure situations
Types of exposure situations<br />
• Planned exposure situations<br />
• Emergency exposure situations<br />
• Existing exposure situations
Planned exposure situations,<br />
are situations involving the planned<br />
introduction and operation of sources.<br />
(…previously categorised as practices.)
Planned exposure situation<br />
Regulatory control<br />
Natural<br />
background<br />
Effective<br />
dose<br />
Practice<br />
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Emergency exposure situations,<br />
• are unexpected situations such as those<br />
that may occur during the operation of a<br />
planned situation, or from a malicious act.
Existing exposure situations,<br />
• are exposure situations that already exist<br />
when a decision on control has to be taken,<br />
such as those caused by natural background<br />
radiation.
Emergency exposure<br />
situations<br />
Extant<br />
dose<br />
Existing exposure<br />
situations<br />
Avertable<br />
dose<br />
Regulatory<br />
ambition<br />
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3 systems<br />
homogeneous, coherent and consistent….but distinct<br />
Patients<br />
Occupational<br />
Public<br />
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Doses to be constrained are<br />
those committed in a year<br />
rather than<br />
those incurred in a year!<br />
Source constraint<br />
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Patients<br />
(The exposure is voluntary, beneficial for the individual exposed and measurable)<br />
• Radiodiagnosis<br />
• Radiotherapy<br />
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Guidance for the<br />
protection of<br />
patients in<br />
radio-diagnosis<br />
radio diagnosis<br />
Fluoroscopy Fluoroscop <br />
Vertebral <br />
Torax rax <br />
100<br />
~ 10<br />
~ 1<br />
Doses in mSv<br />
HIGH<br />
TYPICALLY HIGH<br />
TYPICAL<br />
MINIMAL<br />
189
TRAINING..!!<br />
190
Workers<br />
(voluntary and individually monitored exposure)<br />
Monitored worker<br />
Occupational<br />
exposure:<br />
ALL exposure of<br />
workers incurred<br />
in the course of<br />
their work.<br />
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Occupational<br />
Dose<br />
Restrictions<br />
mSv in a year<br />
1000<br />
500<br />
100<br />
50<br />
20<br />
Maximum<br />
(except life saving)<br />
Every very effort not no to exceed it<br />
All reasonable efforts effort<br />
not not<br />
to exceed it<br />
Annual dose limit<br />
Average dose limit<br />
Optimization<br />
of<br />
<strong>Protection</strong><br />
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R<br />
E<br />
S<br />
C<br />
U<br />
E<br />
N<br />
O<br />
R<br />
M<br />
A<br />
L
The female worker:<br />
protecting the<br />
unborn and<br />
the infant<br />
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Members of the Public<br />
(involuntary no-individually monitored exposure)<br />
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Members of the Public<br />
(involuntary no-individually monitored exposure)<br />
Planned exposure<br />
situations<br />
(Practices)<br />
restrict<br />
the expected<br />
additional doses<br />
below<br />
individual dose limits<br />
and source constraints<br />
Existing & emergency<br />
exposure situations<br />
(Interventions)<br />
reduce<br />
the extant<br />
avertable doses<br />
below<br />
reference levels<br />
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(planned)<br />
‘Practices’
Natural<br />
background<br />
radiation<br />
(planned) ‘Practices’<br />
Restrictions: Restrictions:<br />
dose limits and constraints<br />
Activity introduced<br />
Expected<br />
additional<br />
dose<br />
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Nuclear power<br />
Mining<br />
Wastes<br />
Transport<br />
Dose limit<br />
Industry<br />
Hospitals<br />
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Doses to be constrained are<br />
those committed in a year<br />
rather than<br />
those incurred in a year!<br />
Source constraint<br />
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Restrictions on<br />
the dose<br />
attributable to<br />
practices<br />
mSv in a year<br />
(additional annual dose)<br />
1<br />
0.01<br />
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Regulatory limit<br />
Optimization of protection<br />
<br />
Source constraint<br />
Regulatory exemption<br />
202
‘Interventions’<br />
(in existing and emergency situations)<br />
203
‘Interventions’<br />
(in existing and emergency situations)<br />
Extant<br />
Dose<br />
Should<br />
it be<br />
reduced?<br />
Avertable<br />
Dose<br />
How<br />
much?<br />
Reference<br />
level<br />
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CRITERIA FOR<br />
INTERVENING<br />
(Extant Annual Dose)<br />
100<br />
10<br />
1<br />
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mSv in a year<br />
INTERVENTION<br />
ALMOST ALWAYS<br />
JUSTIFIABLE<br />
INTERVENTION<br />
MAY BE<br />
JUSTIFIABLE<br />
INTERVENTION<br />
IS NOT LIKELY TO BE<br />
JUSTIFIABLE<br />
205
Simplified<br />
summary of dose<br />
restrictions<br />
and reference<br />
levels<br />
(in mSv in a year)<br />
100<br />
20<br />
1<br />
0.01<br />
NO INDIVIDUAL/SOCIETAL BENEFIT ABOVE THIS<br />
Emergency Emergency workers<br />
Evacuation/relocation in emergencies<br />
High levels of existing controllable exposures<br />
Information, training, monitoring<br />
DIRECT OR INDIRECT BENEFIT TO THE INDIVIDUAL<br />
Occupational exposure<br />
Sheltering, stable iodine, in emergencies<br />
Existing exposures such as radon<br />
Comforters and carers to patients<br />
Information, training, monitoring or assessment<br />
SOCIETAL, BUT NO INDIVIDUAL DIRECT BENEFIT<br />
Normal situations<br />
No information or training,<br />
No individual dose assessment<br />
Exclusion, exemption, clearance<br />
206
The use of a reference<br />
level in an existing<br />
exposure situation and<br />
the evolution of the<br />
distribution of<br />
individual doses with<br />
time as a result of the<br />
optimization process<br />
207
In paradigm choice there is no standard higher<br />
than the assent of the relevant community<br />
Decision-aiding Decision aiding Process<br />
based on radiation protection consideration<br />
Decision-making Decision making Process<br />
involving relevant ‘stakeholders’<br />
searching for their informed consent<br />
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(4)<br />
The International<br />
Regime<br />
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The IAEA is the only organ within the UN<br />
system with specific statutory responsibilities<br />
on radiation protection and safety<br />
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“For their efforts<br />
[i] to prevent nuclear energy from being used for military purposes and<br />
[ii] to ensure that nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is<br />
used in the safest possible way“<br />
The Nobel Peace Prize<br />
2005<br />
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to establish<br />
standards<br />
IAEA<br />
statutory safety functions<br />
to provide for<br />
their application<br />
to service international conventions<br />
to service international conventions<br />
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Legally Binding<br />
Conventions<br />
213
Convention on Early Notification of<br />
a Nuclear Accident<br />
214
Convention on Assistance in the Case of a<br />
Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency<br />
215
Convention on Nuclear Safety<br />
216
Joint Convention on the<br />
Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the<br />
Safety of Radioactive Waste Management<br />
217
Convention on Physical <strong>Protection</strong><br />
of Nuclear Material<br />
218
International<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> Safety<br />
Standards<br />
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Nuclear Safety<br />
Standards<br />
Committee<br />
(NUSSC)<br />
IAEA Board of Governors<br />
Commission<br />
on Safety Standards<br />
(CSS)<br />
<strong>Radiation</strong> Safety<br />
Standards<br />
Committee<br />
(RASSC)<br />
Waste Safety<br />
Standards<br />
Committee<br />
(WASSC)<br />
Transport Safety<br />
Standards<br />
Committee<br />
(TRANSSC)<br />
Expert Groups Expert Groups Expert Groups Expert Groups<br />
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Long experience<br />
1962: first<br />
international<br />
standards.<br />
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A large corpus of<br />
International<br />
Safety Standards<br />
is available<br />
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Safety Standards Hierarchy<br />
Safety Fundamentals<br />
Safety Requirements<br />
Safety Guides<br />
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http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1273c_web.pdf
Safety Principles<br />
1: Responsibility for safety<br />
2: Role of government<br />
3: Leadership and management for safety<br />
4: Justification of facilities and activities<br />
5: Optimization of protection<br />
6: Limitation of risks to individuals<br />
7: <strong>Protection</strong> of present and future generations<br />
8: Prevention of accidents<br />
9: Emergency preparedness and response<br />
10: Protective actions to reduce existing or<br />
unregulated radiation risks<br />
225
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Provisions<br />
for the<br />
application<br />
of the<br />
standards:<br />
IAEA<br />
mechanisms<br />
providing<br />
TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE<br />
fostering<br />
INFORMATION EXCHANGE<br />
promoting<br />
EDUCATION & TRAINING<br />
coordinating<br />
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT<br />
rendering<br />
APPRAISAL SERVICES<br />
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Example on how the system for<br />
establishing standards works:<br />
The Regulations for Safe Transport<br />
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230
to Geneva<br />
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232
233
234
235
236
237
Take away points<br />
1. Additional doses to members of the public<br />
should not exceed 1 millisievert in a year<br />
2. Total doses to workers should not exceed<br />
20 millisievert in a year, , except for<br />
emergency workers () ( () ) and pregnant workers () ( ()<br />
3. Existing doses to members of the public of<br />
several tens of millisieverts, , e.g. following an<br />
accident, will justify intervention with special<br />
protective measures, but if the doses are around<br />
1 millisievert intervention may not be justifiable.<br />
26 July, 2012 WNU-Summer Institute<br />
238
Take away points<br />
1. There is a growing international safety regime<br />
2. Obey the international conventions<br />
3. Comply with the international requirements<br />
4. Follow the international guides<br />
5. Use the IAEA application mechanisms<br />
26 July, 2012 239<br />
WNU-Summer Institute 239
Download into your computer<br />
the file<br />
González_Reading Material
agonzalez@arn.gob.ar<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Thank you!<br />
Av. del Libertador 8250<br />
Buenos Aires<br />
Argentina<br />
WNU, ,<br />
+541163231758<br />
241
Additional information to the<br />
SECOND PART<br />
26 July, 2012 242
Epilogue<br />
Policy Implications:<br />
plausibility of effects at low doses<br />
versus<br />
their attributability<br />
26 July, 2012 WNU-Summer InstituteS<br />
243
Policy Implications on effects at low doses :<br />
The effects are<br />
probable and, therefore,<br />
plausible<br />
but, they are not<br />
provable!<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Low-dose effects cannot be<br />
attributed<br />
to radiation exposure!<br />
S<br />
244
Certainty<br />
(100%)<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Likelihood of<br />
Health Effect<br />
Limit of<br />
epidemiology<br />
epidemiology pathology<br />
WNU, , 2008<br />
Limit of<br />
pathology<br />
Dose (mSv)<br />
245
Certainty<br />
(100%)<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Likelihood of<br />
Health Effect<br />
Plausible<br />
Epidemiology Pathology<br />
WNU, , 2008<br />
Collective<br />
estimate<br />
Dose (mSv)<br />
Individual<br />
diagnosis<br />
246
Certainty<br />
(100%)<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Likelihood of<br />
Health Effect<br />
No<br />
attribution<br />
Epidemiology Pathology<br />
Collective<br />
attribution<br />
Dose (mSv)<br />
Individual<br />
attribution<br />
247
Dealing with uncertainties<br />
Is it plausible that there is a risk at low doses?<br />
Plausibility<br />
Apparently reasonable or probable,<br />
without necessarily being so.<br />
from L. plausibilis, from plaus-, plaudere ‘applaud’.<br />
26 July, 2012 WNU-Summer Institute<br />
248
26 July, 2012<br />
ICRP Publication 99<br />
Low - Dose Extrapolation<br />
of <strong>Radiation</strong> Related<br />
Cancer Risk<br />
WNU-Summer Institute<br />
2006<br />
Charles E Land; Uncertainty, low-dose low dose extrapolation and the threshold hypothesis; J. Radiol. Radiol.<br />
Prot. 22 (2002) 1–7<br />
1<br />
249
Nominal statistical uncertainty distribution for excess lifetime<br />
risk of solid cancer mortality among atomic-bomb survivors<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
250<br />
Confidence limits<br />
7.5–12.5% Sv -1<br />
WNU-Summer Institute 250
Uncertainty distribution for excess lifetime risk<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
(taking into account extrapolation to another population)<br />
Cumulative<br />
probability<br />
approximately<br />
log-normal<br />
log normal<br />
1.0-<br />
0.8-<br />
0.6-<br />
0.4-<br />
0.2-<br />
95% upper limit<br />
5%<br />
‘<br />
2<br />
‘<br />
4<br />
251<br />
‘<br />
6<br />
‘<br />
8<br />
15 May, 2004 IRPA11: Sievert Lecture 134<br />
‘<br />
10<br />
‘<br />
12<br />
‘<br />
14<br />
Risk (%)/Sv<br />
confidence limits<br />
1.2–8.8% Sv-1 WNU-Summer Institute 251
26 July, 2012<br />
Cumulative<br />
probability<br />
1.0-<br />
0.8-<br />
0.6-<br />
0.4-<br />
0.2-<br />
95% upper limit<br />
5%<br />
‘<br />
2<br />
‘<br />
4<br />
‘<br />
6<br />
WNU-Summer Institute<br />
‘<br />
8<br />
8.8%/Sv<br />
‘<br />
10<br />
‘<br />
12<br />
‘<br />
14<br />
Assuming a<br />
Risk (%)/Sv<br />
20%<br />
probability<br />
of threshold<br />
252
26 July, 2012<br />
Cumulative<br />
probability<br />
1.0-<br />
0.8-<br />
0.6-<br />
0.4-<br />
0.2-<br />
95% upper limit<br />
5%<br />
‘<br />
2<br />
‘<br />
4<br />
‘<br />
6<br />
WNU-Summer Institute<br />
‘<br />
8<br />
8.8%/Sv<br />
7%/Sv<br />
‘<br />
10<br />
‘<br />
12<br />
‘<br />
14<br />
Assuming a<br />
Risk (%)/Sv<br />
50%<br />
probability<br />
of threshold<br />
253
26 July, 2012<br />
Cumulative<br />
probability<br />
1.0-<br />
0.8-<br />
0.6-<br />
0.4-<br />
0.2-<br />
95% upper limit<br />
5%<br />
‘<br />
2<br />
‘<br />
4<br />
‘<br />
6<br />
WNU-Summer Institute<br />
5%/Sv<br />
‘<br />
8<br />
8.8%/Sv<br />
‘<br />
10<br />
‘<br />
12<br />
‘<br />
14<br />
Assuming a<br />
Risk (%)/Sv<br />
80%<br />
probability<br />
of threshold<br />
254
26 July, 2012<br />
… Namely …<br />
…ICRP considers that due to the<br />
uncertainties in the radiation risk estimates,<br />
it should presume a nominal radiation risk at low<br />
doses and recommends to limit such nominal risk<br />
with radiation protection measures.<br />
255<br />
WNU-Summer Institute 255
Policy Implications:<br />
plausibility of effects at low doses<br />
versus<br />
their attributability<br />
26 July, 2012 WNU-Summer InstituteS<br />
256
Likelihood of radiation health effects<br />
Certainty<br />
(100%)<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Likelihood<br />
Uncertainty!<br />
0.005%/mSv for<br />
cancer<br />
0.0002%/mSv for<br />
hereditable<br />
Doses<br />
WNU-Summer Institute 257
Attributability<br />
Attribute: regard something as being caused by.<br />
from L. attribut- ‘allotted’: both from attribuere, from ad- ‘to’ + tribuere<br />
‘assign’.<br />
26 July, 2012 WNU-Summer Institute<br />
258
26 July, 2012<br />
Epistemological limits in radioepidemiology<br />
WNU-Summer Institute<br />
259
Control group<br />
“N” people<br />
“C” cancers<br />
“n” probability of<br />
‘natural ‘natural’ natural’ cancer<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
WNU-Summer Institute<br />
Exposed group<br />
“N” people<br />
“E” cancers<br />
“n” probability of<br />
‘natural ‘natural’cancer<br />
natural’cancer cancer<br />
‘p D’ probability of<br />
‘radiation ‘radiation’ radiation’ cancer<br />
260
26 July, 2012<br />
Difficult to<br />
detect!<br />
C<br />
=n N<br />
Number<br />
of<br />
cancers<br />
in<br />
control<br />
group<br />
E-C<br />
WNU-Summer Institute<br />
E<br />
= n N<br />
+<br />
p d D N<br />
Number<br />
of<br />
cancers<br />
in<br />
exposed<br />
group<br />
261
Limitation of knowledge in<br />
The standard deviation is<br />
epidemiology<br />
= 2 n N + p D N d N d<br />
If the excess cancers are to be detected with a statistical<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
confidence of 95%<br />
262<br />
E – C > 2 <br />
WNU-Summer Institute 262
Epidemiological limit<br />
Operating algebraically and as n >> p d D,<br />
N > constant / D2 N > constant / D2 which is the equation giving the number of people,<br />
N, needed for detecting excess cancers at dose D.<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
(Constant = 8 n / p d 2 )<br />
263<br />
WNU-Summer Institute 263
Dose (mSv ( mSv)<br />
10 2<br />
10 1<br />
10 -0<br />
10 -1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
unprovable<br />
1 mSv<br />
WNU, ,<br />
SOLID CANCERS<br />
knowledge<br />
10 9 p.<br />
People<br />
264
Dose (mSv ( mSv)<br />
10 2<br />
10 1<br />
10 -0<br />
10 -1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
unprovable<br />
~1 mSv<br />
~10 12 people!<br />
WNU, ,<br />
HEREDITABLE EFFECTS<br />
knowledge<br />
(very limited)<br />
People<br />
265
C H E R N O B Y L
267
<strong>Radiation</strong> Doses<br />
Average over 10 years 8 mSv<br />
For life 13 mSv<br />
268
Natural Background<br />
Chernobyl for life <br />
Few people<br />
In few areas <br />
Many people<br />
In many areas <br />
Majority of people<br />
around the world <br />
~100<br />
~ 10<br />
~2.4<br />
~1<br />
annual dose<br />
mSv/year<br />
VERY HIGH<br />
TYPICALLY HIGH<br />
AVERAGE<br />
MINIMUM<br />
269
Dose (mSv ( mSv)<br />
10 2<br />
10 1<br />
10 -0<br />
Chernobyl doses<br />
~10 mSv<br />
10 -1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
unprovable<br />
WNU, ,<br />
SOLID CANCERS in Chernobyl<br />
(except thyroid cancers in children)<br />
Chernobyl residents<br />
in strict control areas<br />
~300 000<br />
knowledge<br />
People<br />
270
Dose (mSv ( mSv)<br />
10 2<br />
10 1<br />
10 -0<br />
10 -1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
unprovable<br />
WNU, ,<br />
Thyroid Cancer<br />
knowledge<br />
(very expanded)<br />
Children<br />
272
273
Thyroid cancer in children in Belarus<br />
Number of cases<br />
Thyroid cancer in children in Belarus<br />
Thyroid 140 cancer in children in Belarus<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
1986<br />
1987<br />
1988<br />
1989<br />
274<br />
1990<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
Total<br />
1996<br />
0-4<br />
5-9<br />
10-14<br />
1997<br />
WNU, 274 ,
The ‘liquidators’<br />
“ЛIКВIДАТОРИ”<br />
275
Dose (mSv ( mSv)<br />
10 2<br />
10 1<br />
10 -0<br />
Liquidators’ Liquidators av.doses<br />
~10 mSv<br />
10 -1 10 2 10 4 10 6 10 8<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
unprovable<br />
WNU, ,<br />
DETECTABILITY OF LEUKÆMIAS<br />
Chernobyl liquidators<br />
~160 000<br />
knowledge<br />
People<br />
278
Certainty<br />
(100%)<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Likelihood of<br />
Health Effect<br />
Limit of<br />
epidemiology<br />
epidemiology pathology<br />
WNU, ,<br />
Limit of<br />
pathology<br />
Dose (mSv)<br />
279
Certainty<br />
(100%)<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Likelihood of<br />
Health Effect<br />
Plausible<br />
epidemiology pathology<br />
WNU, ,<br />
Collective<br />
estimate<br />
Dose (mSv)<br />
Individual<br />
diagnosis<br />
280
Certainty<br />
(100%)<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Likelihood of<br />
Health Effect<br />
No<br />
attribution<br />
epidemiology pathology<br />
WNU, ,<br />
Collective<br />
attribution<br />
Dose (mSv)<br />
Individual<br />
attribution<br />
281
Take away points<br />
1. It is plausible that radiation exposure at low<br />
doses be detrimental to public health and,<br />
therefore: people shall be protected against<br />
radiation exposure at any dose however small.<br />
2. It is impossible and therefore incorrect to<br />
attribute health effects to low-dose radiation<br />
exposure situations.<br />
26 July, 2012 WNU, 282 ,
agonzale@arn.gob.ar<br />
26 July, 2012<br />
Thank you!<br />
Av. del Libertador 8250<br />
Buenos Aires<br />
Argentina<br />
WNU, ,<br />
+541163231758<br />
283