The effect of climate change on surface water - CSIRO Land and Water
The effect of climate change on surface water - CSIRO Land and Water
The effect of climate change on surface water - CSIRO Land and Water
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Scenarios<br />
• <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> ‘historical <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>’ assumed that the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the last 33 years<br />
(1975 to 2007) would c<strong>on</strong>tinue. This was used as a base case for<br />
comparis<strong>on</strong> with other scenarios<br />
• <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> ‘recent <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>’ assumed that the <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> the last 11 years<br />
(1997 to 2007) would c<strong>on</strong>tinue<br />
• <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> ‘future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>’ used 15 GCMs with 3 ‘greenhouse’ gas emissi<strong>on</strong><br />
levels which would result in 0.7, 1.0 <strong>and</strong> 1.3 o C warming by 2030<br />
= 45 possible <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>s. <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g>y are reported as<br />
• wet future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
• median future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g>, <strong>and</strong><br />
• dry future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
• Current levels <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> l<strong>and</strong> use <strong>and</strong> diversi<strong>on</strong>s were assumed to c<strong>on</strong>tinue<br />
for all scenarios above<br />
• <str<strong>on</strong>g>The</str<strong>on</strong>g> ‘future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>and</strong> development’ scenario assumed a median<br />
future <str<strong>on</strong>g>climate</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>and</strong> new plantati<strong>on</strong>s <strong>and</strong> farm dams (where important)<br />
<strong>CSIRO</strong> South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields Project – Surface <strong>water</strong>
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