Arab Cities2012 - Cities Alliance

18
1.6
Regional Urban Energy, Food and Water Security
Impact of Climate Change on Water
According to the IPCC’s 4 th Assessment Report, the
Middle East and North Africa will become hotter and
drier by the end of the century. Overall, the region is
projected to warm by 2ºC by 2050 and 4ºC by 2100. Total
water runoff will decline by 20 to 30 per cent by 2050. 25
Within the region, models predict that the Mashreq will be
2.5 to 3.7ºC hotter in the summer and 2.0 to 3.1ºC hotter
in the winter by 2050. In the Maghreb, climate change will
shift the Westerly winds, resulting in as much as a 12 per cent
reduction in median annual precipitation by 2030.
Together, these two trends will increase the frequency
and severity of extreme weather, particularly severe drought.
Models also predict a rise of 0.1 to 0.3 metres in sea level by
2050, which will increase salt water intrusion into important
coastal aquifers, including in Gaza.
These changes will have significant and largely negative
impacts on cities in the Arab world by displacing farmers and
increasing urbanization pressures, increasing food imports,
decreasing the availability of water in a region that is already
water stressed, increasing the likelihood of flooding in coastal
areas where most of the Arab world lives and increasing energy
demands for cooling and desalination.
For the Mashreq, a study predicted that climate change
would cost countries 1 to 7 per cent of GDP. These pressures
will raise the cost of living in cities and eventually surpass the
ability of governments in the region to subsidize costs. Climate
change therefore has the potential to destabilize the region.
Water and Food Security
FIGURE 4: PERCENTAGE OF NATIONAL URBAN POPULATION LIVING IN LOW-ELEVATION COASTAL ZONES (LECZ)
% of national urban population in urban LECZ
0.0 - 5.0
5.1 - 10.0
10.1 - 15.0
15.1 -20.0
20.1 - 25.0
> 25.0
City size
Small: 100K - 500K
Intermediate: 500K - 1 million
Large: Over 1 million
Source: UN-Habitat Global Urban Observatory 2008.
Casablanca
N
Algiers
0 1,000 2,000Km
The Arab world is one of the most water scarce regions in
the world, with an average of 2,000 cubic metres of renewable
freshwater water per capita. Around 8 to 10 per cent of
water is used for domestic consumption, 5 to 7 per cent for
industrial uses, and 85 per cent for agriculture, making it the
most vulnerable sector under climate change. 26
Models project that domestic food production will decline
by 10 to 20 per cent in the region due to climate change and
by as much as 40 per cent in countries like Morocco. 27 It will
have a tremendous impact on countries for which agriculture
is a major employment base such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco,
Syria and Yemen.
Tunis
Tarabulus
Alexandria
Bur Sudan
Djibouti
Jeddah
Aden
Mogadishu