www.vitec.se Improve your Energy demand forecasts with Aiolos!

Vitec Energy
Improve your Energy demand forecasts
with Aiolos!
Aiolos is a short-term electricity demand forecasting system. It is an invaluable aid, both in production
planning and in trading in the electricity market.
Aiolos, the leading forecasting software in the Nordic region, is used by the majority of companies with
supply-demand balance responsibilities. Our customers include Svenska Kraftnät, Fortum Markets,
Helsingfors Energy, Telge Kraft, Markedskraft and many others.
Firms in the energy trading industry face a fast paced envi-
ronment where high speed decision making, based on con-
sistent and precise energy forecasts, is essential. To be suc-
cessful, companies must use reliable energy load forecasts
which quickly and accurately process the large amounts of
data available. Aiolos is designed for the forecasting and
planning of energy production. By combining ease of use
with advanced mathematics of load forecasting, Aiolos pro-
duces fast, precise forecasts every day, all year round.
Aiolos considers both social and weather factors and gene-
rates forecasts from a single day up to several years. It can
be implemented as a stand-alone system or integrated into
a larger trading system.
Ho w a c c u r at e is t H e ai o l o s syst e m?
Vitec has designed the Aiolos system to consider a number
of important factors when producing energy forecasts. Com-
bined with system controls and extensive customer support,
which help to ensure quality of data and correct system
use, Aiolos is able to produce highly accurate forecasts for
companies with varying needs and backgrounds.
During the 2005 winter season in Sweden, a large energy
trading company implemented the Aiolos system and found
its forecast accuracy to be as high as over 98%.
Fu n c t i o n a l i t y
The Aiolos system displays weather forecasts, weather
data and load forecasts in graph or spreadsheet format.
The system has ready-to-use formats for the importing
and exporting of common databases within the energy
market and for a number of meteorological institutes.
Aiolos can be programmed with different time resolu-
tions on the load data, both hourly and sub-hourly (15
minutes).
Every load series can be connected to individual weather
series and a “special-day-calendar”.
There is the option to make forecasts over several years by
using “normal-weather”.
Aiolos
The profile forecasting module allows you to make high
quality forecasts for your power area, even if the number
of customers is changing from one period to another.
www.vitec.se

a u s e r F r i e n d ly i nte r Fac e
Producing a forecast with Aiolos is easy. You simply choose which
series to forecast and the time interval, and the result will appear
as follows:
The graph at the top displays the load forecast. The graph at the
bottom shows the weather used for making this forecast.
The load and weather forecasts can also be validated against an-
other time period for the same load series. The ability to compare
load forecasts with the actual outcome of a load series means that
you can clearly see the accuracy of your forecasts and can then
modify them if necessary. The transparency of the system allows
users to see exactly where the information is coming from and
how best to analyze and use the output for their specific needs.
Data can be presented as a diagram or as a spreadsheet. The load
series are shown hourly together with the weather data for that
hour. Energy may be added or subtracted, either as a percentage
or as energy measured in MWh.
Modified forecasts can then be easily exported to other programs,
like Microsoft Excel, for further use and analysis.
ai o l o s - a s a F e c H o i c e
Making Aiolos your forecasting system is a safe choice. The further
development of the system is secured by our broad customer
base. 40 companies use Vitec forecasting systems today. In the
past six months alone, six new customers in the Nordic market
have chosen Aiolos for their demand forecasts.
wH y ai o l o s
Aiolos makes precise forecasts.
The system is easy to use, which means additional efficiencies
in implementing Aiolos.
Aiolos is a choice backed by many other companies who have
chosen the system.
Aiolos is developed by power traders for power traders.
Vitec is an established software company which provides strong
support for its customers and continues to develop and improve
its products, like the Aiolos system.
a w i n d p o w e r F o r e c a st i n g syst e m is o n t H e w a y .
Vitec is also in the process of developing a module for wind
power forecasting, which is currently being successfully tested in
Denmark.
Vitec Energy Aiolos
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ver. 4 maj08