Developments to the Met Office Global and Regional ... - UCAR

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© Crown copyright Met Office Stochastic Physics • SKEB: • Modulate a stochastic pattern that is generated with specified spatial and temporal characteristics • Includes effects from numerical scheme smoothing, KE from convection, diffusion of large-scale flow • Produces rotational and divergent wind components at each time-step • Random Parameters: • ~15 parameter values varied by AR1 process in set range • Each ensemble member equally likely • Perturbed Physics Tendencies: • Under test, but difficulty with model stability
• SST: © Crown copyright Met Office SST & Soil Moisture Perturbations • Derive statistics of SST fields, e.g. day-to-day �t • Calculate a power-law for random forcing pattern • Perturbation added to SST field (which remains constant during the forecast) • Soil Moisture: • Pass soil moisture of each member through forecast cycles • Re-centre perts and check values SST pert example Soil moisture pert example
Page 1 and 2: Developments to the Met Office Glob
Page 3 and 4: Operational setup and 2012 upgrades
Page 5 and 6: © Crown copyright Met Office Overv
Page 7 and 8: MOGREPS-UK Convective-scale ensembl
Page 9 and 10: Olympic Showcase • Forecasts from
Page 11 and 12: © Crown copyright Met Office MOGRE
Page 13 and 14: Medium-range and Seamless Forecasti
Page 15: Stochastic Physics and SST and Soil
Page 19 and 20: © Crown copyright Met Office Impac
Page 21: Any Questions? © Crown copyright M

Developments to the Met Office Global and Regional ... - UCAR

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