Spatial crop model applications in Austria: Climate change ... - adagio

Spatial crop model applications in
Austria:
Climate change impacts on cereals
in the Marchfeld region/Austria
2nd General Meeting Sofia, Mar. 2008
www.ADAGIO-EU.org
Gerhard Kubu, Josef Eitzinger, Sabina Thaler
March, 2008

Investigation area: area:
Marchfeld

Crop Models
Carbon
Water
Nitrogen

DSSAT v 4
(Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer)

Soil classes
Available water capacity of soils
the range of available
water that can be stored
in soil (1 m depth) and
be available for growing
crops

Soil classes
examples
Parachernosem
Chernosem and colluvial
Fluvisols
Chernosem
1 2 3 4 5
awc 300 [mm]
area: 2% 15% 61% 22% 0.2%
Source: eBOD - Die digitale Bodenkarte, BFW, 2005

Calibration:
Calibration:
Winter wheat and spring barley
Yield [kg ha -1 ]
Winter wheat: 16 calibration years Spring barley: 8 calibration years
Federal experimental as well as weather station: Fuchsenbigl
(lat 48.322, long 17.000, elevation 149 m)

Climate change impacts - methodology
multi-year simulation is made to assess mean and variability
Source: Dubrovsky M.,2004; Met&Roll: http://www.ufa.cas.cz/dub/impacts/met&roll.htm

Sowing date
changes in respect to the present conditions – in days
� Winter wheat: delay of the average sowing date
in autumn
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
HadCM high HadCM low CSIRO high CSIRO low ECHAM high ECHAM low
� Spring barley: earlier average sowing date in spring
HadCM high HadCM low CSIRO high CSIRO low ECHAM high ECHAM low

A2 SRES scenario 2050 - Winter wheat Yield
% change in respect to the present conditions

Water stress index: index
Water factor for growth - Spring barley
2050

Conclusion:
Conclusion
� spring barley showed more sensitivity to
climate change than winter wheat
� Yield potential of winter wheat increases
� especially due to the CO 2 -fertilizing effects
� it can also profit by higher winter precipitation
� For spring barley increased aridity leads to
a decrease of the yield potential or to
stagnation

ADAGIO – General
Meeting Sofia
www.ADAGIO-EU.org
www.ADAGIO EU.org
Thank you
for your attention! attention
Gerhard Kubu – gerhard.kubu@boku.ac.at – BOKU Vienna, Austria