RITC 2012 Case Package - Rotman International Trading ...
RITC 2012 Case Package - Rotman International Trading ...
RITC 2012 Case Package - Rotman International Trading ...
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<strong>Case</strong> <strong>Package</strong> <strong>2012</strong><br />
<strong>Rotman</strong><br />
<strong>International</strong><br />
<strong>Trading</strong><br />
Competition
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6<br />
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11<br />
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33<br />
Table of Contents<br />
About <strong>RITC</strong><br />
Important Information<br />
<strong>Case</strong> Summaries<br />
Social Outcry <strong>Case</strong><br />
Sales & Trader <strong>Case</strong><br />
Quantitative Outcry <strong>Case</strong><br />
BP Canada Commodities <strong>Case</strong><br />
Thomson Reuters QED <strong>Case</strong><br />
Options <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
Appendix<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
2
About <strong>RITC</strong><br />
The <strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition is a one-of-a-kind event hosted annually at the University<br />
of Toronto. Now entering its 9th year, the three day competition brings together over 300 participants<br />
representing approximately 50 top universities and corporations across the world.<br />
Despite the technological improvements and continued shift towards remote electronic trading, the event<br />
continues to draw ever larger interest as our competitors and sponsors demonstrate that they value the<br />
face-to-face interaction encouraged by our conference format.<br />
The competition is predominantly structured around the <strong>Rotman</strong> Interactive Trader platform, an<br />
electronic exchange which matches buyers and sellers in an order-driven market, on which we run trading<br />
cases. The cases simulate potential scenarios for risks and opportunities with a focus on relevant<br />
investment, portfolio or risk management objectives. They are designed to test participants’ ability to<br />
handle a wide range of market scenarios.<br />
The following case package provides an overview of the content presented at the <strong>2012</strong> <strong>Rotman</strong><br />
<strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition. Each case has been specifically tailored to be linked to topics taught in<br />
university level classes and real-life trading situations. We hope you enjoy your experience at the<br />
competition.<br />
See You in Toronto<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
3<br />
About <strong>RITC</strong>
Important Information<br />
Practice Servers<br />
Practice servers will be online as of Monday, January 23rd, <strong>2012</strong> and will operate 24 hours a day 7 days a<br />
week until the start of the competition.<br />
This year, we will be revealing the new <strong>Rotman</strong> Interactive Trader Version 2.0. This version is currently in<br />
its pre-release form and only available to competition participants.<br />
Information on how to download and install the RIT v2.0 Client is available on the <strong>RITC</strong> website:<br />
http://ritc.rotman.utoronto.ca/casefile.asp<br />
The follow table details the server IP & ports for the <strong>RITC</strong> practice environments.<br />
<strong>Case</strong> Name Server IP Port<br />
Sales & Trader <strong>Case</strong> flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16500<br />
BP Canada Commodities <strong>Case</strong> flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16510<br />
Thomson Reuters QED <strong>Case</strong> flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16520<br />
Options <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong> flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16530<br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong> Server 1 flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16550<br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong> Server 2 flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16560<br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong> Server 3 flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16570<br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong> Server 4 flserver.rotman.utoronto.ca 16580<br />
Practice servers will be made available starting the week of Monday, January 23rd. The actual cases will<br />
likely be introduced in a staggered manner - not all cases will be available on Jan 23rd.<br />
To login to any server port, you can type in any username and password and it will automatically create an<br />
account if it does not exist. If you have forgotten your password or the username appears to be taken,<br />
simply choose a new username and password to create a new account.<br />
Multiple server ports have been provided for the CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong> to allow teams to trade in<br />
either populated or unpopulated environments. For example, if you are testing your algorithm and there<br />
are 7 other algorithms running, you may want to move to a different port where less trading is occurring.<br />
The BP Canada Commodities <strong>Case</strong>, Thomson Reuters QED, and Options <strong>Trading</strong> cases will be updated<br />
with a different set of news on Monday, February 6th, 13th, and 20th at 10AM EST. Teams wishing to trade<br />
against other participants are encouraged to login at this time. At each update, a new case file with<br />
different news items and randomized paths will be uploaded and will continue to run until the next update.<br />
As such, teams that continue to practice from the start of the practice server up to the competition will<br />
have traded 4 different iterations of each of the aforementioned cases. The Sales & Trader and CIBC<br />
Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> cases have no news drivers but randomize a new set of security paths each time they<br />
are run.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
4<br />
Important Information
Additional Support Files<br />
Additional support files including the CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong> Base Algorithm and other relevant<br />
support and documentation files will be provided on the <strong>RITC</strong> website.<br />
Scoring and Ranking Methodology<br />
The Scoring and Ranking Methodology document will be released prior to the start of the competition on<br />
the <strong>RITC</strong> website. An announcement will be sent out to competitors once the document becomes<br />
available.<br />
Competition Schedule<br />
This schedule is subject to change prior to the competition. Competitors can check on the <strong>RITC</strong> website for<br />
the most up-to-date schedule. Each competitor will also receive a personalized schedule when they arrive<br />
at the competition.<br />
Team Schedule<br />
Competitors must submit a team-schedule by February 10 th . This schedule will detail which of the team<br />
members will be taking part in the different events. It is the team’s responsibility to organize and schedule<br />
such that conflicts (for example, between trading cases simultaneously, or with sponsor interviews) are<br />
avoided. Schedules submitted by Feb 10 th are considered final and substitutions following that date will<br />
not be permitted except under extreme circumstances.<br />
Competition Waivers<br />
All participants are required to sign a competition waiver prior to their participation at <strong>RITC</strong>. These will be<br />
available online (to be sent in ahead of time) or at the registration desk when you arrive.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
5<br />
Important Information
<strong>Case</strong> Summaries<br />
Social Outcry<br />
The opening event of the competition gives you your first opportunity to make an impression on the<br />
sponsors, faculty members, and other teams in this fun introduction to the <strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong><br />
Competition. Trade against experienced professionals from the industry, try to make your case against<br />
the professors, and show everyone your outcry skills by making fast and loud trading decisions.<br />
Sales and Trader<br />
This is our premier electronic trading case on the <strong>Rotman</strong> Interactive Trader platform. With six different<br />
trading scenarios, this simulated market environment will put your critical thinking and analytical skills to<br />
the test. Whether you choose to market make, trade institutional orders or a combination of the two,<br />
participants will have to think fast and logically in order to manage liquidity risk and get the highest return.<br />
Quantitative Outcry<br />
Building on the experience of the Social Outcry, this case combines trading, analytical, and<br />
communication skills to make it even more demanding. With the support of models built in Excel,<br />
participants will use news releases that give quantitative economic forecasts, as well as qualitative micro<br />
and macro data, to predict the futures market on the RT100 index. Analyzing macroeconomic indicators,<br />
participants should be able to gain an understanding of the sensitivity of the index to each of the factors<br />
and be able to effectively model it.<br />
BP Canada Commodities<br />
The BP Canada Commodities case will place competitors in a trading simulation, covering two months, in<br />
which they can transact both physical and financial crude oil products in different locations and different<br />
delivery points. The crude oil market will be affected by fundamental changes in the supply and demand<br />
of crude oil, while physical arbitrage conditions will link the crude oil markets to other upstream and<br />
downstream markets.<br />
Thomson Reuters QED<br />
The Thomson Reuters Quantitative & Event Driven (QED) case introduces competitors to the cutting-edge<br />
environment of machine-readable news. Participants will be responsible for reviewing a Reuters QED<br />
dataset and determining the relationships between news and stock price movements. Based on this<br />
analysis, traders will be able to model the expected effects of news events that are released during the<br />
trading cases.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
6<br />
<strong>Case</strong> Summaries
Options <strong>Trading</strong><br />
New to <strong>RITC</strong> <strong>2012</strong>, the Options <strong>Trading</strong> case will challenge traders’ ability to use options valuation models<br />
to forecast the future volatility of an underlying stock and trade options to profit from their views. The<br />
options case is designed to reward sound decision making abilities with regards to how an option is priced<br />
(overpriced or underpriced) rather than rewarding directional views on a stock (with leverage).<br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong><br />
The CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> case is designed to challenge competitors’ logic and programming skills as<br />
they attempt to design the most effective algorithm to generate trading profits. Competitors lacking<br />
knowledge in programming can follow step-by-step guides and use trading templates to design their<br />
algorithm, while more ambitious traders can design an algorithm from the ground up.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
7<br />
<strong>Case</strong> Summaries
Social Outcry<br />
Overview<br />
The objective of the Social Outcry case is to allow competition participants to interact (“to break the ice”)<br />
and to understand the progression of market technology. This segment of the competition is not included<br />
in the cumulative team score as scores are based on individual performance. This Social Outcry will be an<br />
exciting way for you to introduce yourself to the participants at <strong>RITC</strong> as well as great preparation for the<br />
Quantitative Outcry. You will be ranked based on your Net Liquidation Value at the end of the case.<br />
Description<br />
Each participant will start the session with a neutral futures position. Participants are allowed to go long<br />
(buy) or go short (sell). Contracts in hand at the end of trading will be marked-to-market at the closing<br />
price.<br />
Market Dynamics<br />
Participants will trade futures contracts on an index, the RT100. The futures price will be determined by<br />
the market’s transactions while the spot price will follow a stochastic path subject to influence from<br />
qualitative news announcements which will be displayed on the ticker. One news announcement will be<br />
displayed at a time, and each news release will have an uncertain length and effect. Favourable news will<br />
result in an increase in the spot price while unfavourable news will cause a decrease in the spot price. These<br />
reactions may occur instantly or with lags. Participants are expected to trade based on how they interpret<br />
the news and their anticipation of the market reaction.<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> Limits and Transaction Costs<br />
There are no trading limits or trading commissions for the Social Outcry case.<br />
Rules and Responsibilities<br />
The following rules apply throughout the Social Outcry case:<br />
� Market agents are <strong>RITC</strong> staff members at the front of the outcry pit collecting tickets.<br />
� Maximum of 5 contracts per trade/ticket.<br />
� All tickets must be filled out completely and legibly and verified by both parties with no portion of<br />
the ticket left blank. Illegible tickets may be ignored by the market agents!<br />
� Both transacting parties are responsible to make sure that the white portion of the ticket is<br />
received by the market agent. The transaction will not be processed if the white portion is not<br />
handed in. Both trading parties must walk the ticket up to the market agent.<br />
� Only the white portion of the ticket will be accepted by the market agent; trading receipts (pink<br />
and yellow) are for the team’s records only.<br />
� Once parties have verbally committed to a trade, they are required to transact.<br />
� <strong>RITC</strong> staff reserve the right to break any unreasonable trades.<br />
� Any breaches of the above stated rules and responsibilities are to be reported to the market agent<br />
or floor governors immediately.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
8<br />
Social Outcry <strong>Case</strong>
Position Close-Out and <strong>Case</strong> Scoring<br />
Each person’s trades will be settled at the close of trading based on the final spot price. The ranking is based<br />
on the total P/L (profit/loss) from the trading session.<br />
Example:<br />
Throughout the trading session, one trader has made the following trades:<br />
Buy 2 contracts @ 998<br />
Sell 5 contracts @ 1007<br />
Buy 1 contract @ 1004<br />
The market closed out @ 1000. The P/L for the trader is then calculated as follows:<br />
2 long contracts @ 998<br />
P/L: (1000-998)*2*10 = $40<br />
5 short contracts @ 1007<br />
P/L: (1000-1007)*(-5)*10 = $350<br />
1 long contract @ 1004<br />
P/L: (1000-1004)*1*10 = ($40)<br />
There are no commissions and fines in the Social Outcry.<br />
The trader has made a total P/L of $350.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
9<br />
Social Outcry <strong>Case</strong>
Complete Transaction and Social Outcry Language Example<br />
To find the market, traders simply yell “What’s the market?” If someone wants to make the market on the bid<br />
side, he/she can answer “bid 50” meaning they want to buy at a price ending with 50 (1050, 1150), whichever is<br />
closest to the last trade. If someone wants to make the market on the ask side, he/she will yell “at 51”<br />
meaning he/she wants to sell at a price ending with 51 (1051, 1151) closest to the last price. Note that so far,<br />
no quantity has been declared. Only two digits are required when calling the bid or ask. To complete a trade,<br />
someone willing to take the market can simply say “bought two” to the person selling. The seller’s response<br />
must then be: “sold two” (or any other quantity below 2, but not 0, at the seller’s discretion). After the seller<br />
and the buyer fill out the trade ticket and submit the white part to the ticket taker, the trade is complete.<br />
Please note that the market maker (trader announcing the price) gets to decide the quantity traded up to a<br />
maximum of the quantity requested by the market taker.<br />
A complete transaction could run as follows:<br />
Trader1 “What’s the market?”<br />
Trader2 “bid 70, at 72” or “70 at 72”, (bid 1070, ask 1072, this trader wants to buy and sell)<br />
Trader3 “at 71” (the new market is 1070 to 1071)<br />
Trader 1 to Trader 3 “Bought 5” (he/she wants to buy 5 contracts at 1071)<br />
Trader 3 to Trader 1 “Sold 3” (Although Trader 1 wanted to buy 5 contracts, Trader 3 only wants to sell 3<br />
contracts so Trader 1 must accept the three contracts).<br />
Trader 1 or Trader 3 He/she fills out the trade ticket with initials from both Trader 1 and Trader 3. The<br />
white portion of the ticket is submitted to the market agent by both traders (both<br />
traders walk the ticket up to the front of the trading floor). Trader 1(Buyer) keeps the<br />
yellow portion of the ticket and Trader 3(Seller) keeps the pink (red) portion of the<br />
ticket.<br />
There will be a brief outcry practice and demonstration before the Social Outcry on the day of competition.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
10<br />
Social Outcry <strong>Case</strong>
Sales & Trader <strong>Case</strong><br />
Overview<br />
The Sales and Trader <strong>Case</strong> challenges participants to put their critical thinking and analytical abilities to the<br />
test in an environment that allows traders to have significant flexibility on the trading strategy they choose to<br />
implement. Traders will be faced with multiple tender offers requiring participants to make rapid judgments<br />
on the profitability and subsequent execution of these offers. Profits can be generated by taking advantage of<br />
pricing discrepancies, large tender offers, and market-making opportunities.<br />
Description<br />
There will be 2 heats with 2 team members competing for the entire heat. Each heat will consist of six 10<br />
minute sub-heats with each sub-heat to be independently traded and representing one month of calendar<br />
time. Each sub-heat will have a unique objective and could involve up to four securities with different volatility<br />
and liquidity characteristics.<br />
Parameter Value<br />
Number of trading sub-heats 6<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> time per sub heat 600 seconds (10 minutes)<br />
Calendar time per sub heat 1 month (20 trading days)<br />
Tender offers will be generated by computerized traders and distributed at random intervals to random<br />
participants. Traders must subsequently evaluate the profitability of these tenders when accepting or bidding<br />
on them. <strong>Trading</strong> from excel using <strong>Rotman</strong> API will be disabled. Real time data (RTD) links will be enabled.<br />
Market Dynamics<br />
There are six sub-heats per heat, each with unique market dynamics and parameters ranging from changes in<br />
the spread of tender orders to the liquidity and volatility of various stocks. Details regarding each sub heat will<br />
be distributed directly before the trading period allowing for participants to formulate trading strategies.<br />
An example of sub-heat details is shown below.<br />
<strong>RITC</strong> COMP<br />
Starting Price $12 $15<br />
Commission/share $0.01 $0.01<br />
Max order size 25,000 25,000<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> Limit (Gross/Net) 250,000/250,000 250,000/250,000<br />
Liquidity High High<br />
Volatility Medium Medium<br />
Tender frequency Medium Medium<br />
During each sub-heat, traders will occasionally receive one of three different types of tender offers: private<br />
tenders, competitive auctions and winner takes all. Tender offers are generated by the server and randomly<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
11<br />
Sales Sales & & Trader Trader <strong>Case</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
distributed to traders at different times. Each participant will get the same number of tender offers with<br />
variations in price and quantity.<br />
Private tenders are routed to individual traders and are offers to purchase or sell a fixed volume of stock at a<br />
fixed price. The tender price is influenced by the same pre-generated path that the liquidity traders follow in<br />
an attempt to drive the market price towards that path. Private tenders will give a spread based on the midmarket<br />
price when the order was generated (if the mid-market price is $10, and the spread was 1-2%, the<br />
tender offer will offer to buy shares for an amount between $10.10 and $10.20). No trading commission will<br />
be paid on private tenders and traders will have 30 seconds to accept or decline any offer.<br />
Competitive auction offers will be sent to every participant at the same time. Traders will be required to<br />
determine a competitive, yet profitable price to submit for a given volume of stock from the auction. Any<br />
trader that submits an order that is better than the base-line reserve price (hidden from traders) will<br />
automatically have their order filled, regardless of other traders’ bids. If accepted, the fills will occur at the<br />
price that the trader submits.<br />
Winner takes all tenders request traders to submit bids to buy or sell a fixed volume of stock. After all prices<br />
have been received, the tender is awarded to the single highest bidder or lowest offer. The winning price<br />
however must meet a base-line reserve price. If no offer meets the reserve price, then the trade may not be<br />
awarded to anyone (i.e. if all traders bid $2.00 for a $10 stock, nobody will win).<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> Limits and Transaction Costs<br />
Each trader will be subject to gross and net trading limits to be specified in the case description distributed<br />
prior to the trading period. The gross trading limit reflects the sum of the absolute values of the long and<br />
short positions across all securities; while the net trading limit reflects the sum of long and short positions<br />
such that short positions negate any long positions. <strong>Trading</strong> limits will be strictly enforced and traders will not<br />
be able to exceed them.<br />
The maximum trade size will be 25,000 shares, restricting the volume of shares transacted per trade to<br />
25,000. Transaction fees will be specified in the case description distributed prior to the trading period.<br />
Position Close-Out<br />
Any non-zero position will be closed out at the end of trading based on the last traded price. This includes any<br />
long or short position open in any security. Computerized market makers will increase the liquidity in the<br />
market towards the end of trading to ensure the closing price cannot be manipulated.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
12<br />
Sales & Trader <strong>Case</strong>
Key Objectives<br />
Objective 1:<br />
Generate profits by market making in order to capture the bid-ask spread. Develop trading strategies based<br />
on the case descriptions to be distributed prior to the trading period in order to customize profitable trading<br />
strategies to each sub-heat.<br />
Objective 2:<br />
Evaluate the profitability of tender offers and accept those that will generate positive profits while rejecting<br />
those that will create losses. Submit competitive, yet profitable, bids and offers on above reserve and winner<br />
takes all tenders in order to maximize potential profits.<br />
Objective 3:<br />
Limit market risk by managing open positions and optimally utilizing the gross and net trading limits to<br />
maximize profits. Maintaining large short or long positions may result in the market trading away from your<br />
transaction price, resulting in losses. Use a combination of limit and market orders to mitigate any liquidity<br />
and price risks from holding open positions.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
13<br />
Sales & Trader <strong>Case</strong>
Quantitative Outcry <strong>Case</strong><br />
Overview<br />
The Quantitative Outcry case challenges competitors to apply their understanding of macroeconomics to<br />
determine the effect news releases will have on the North American economy as captured by the <strong>Rotman</strong><br />
Index (RT100). The RT100 index is a composite index reflective of North American political, economic, and<br />
market conditions. Traders will be required to interpret and react to news releases in trading RT100 index<br />
futures based on their analysis of the news’ impact on the index. Competitors are expected to construct an<br />
economic indicator sensitivity model that they can use to support their trading decisions during the case.<br />
Teams will also be able to make a limited number of spot transactions to generate arbitrage profits between<br />
the spot and futures markets.<br />
Description<br />
There will be 2 heats with 4 team members competing for the entire heat. The 4 team members will comprise<br />
of 2 analysts and 2 traders who will rotate positions for the second heat. Each heat will last 30 minutes<br />
representing six months of calendar time. Traders will be trading futures contracts on the RT100 index.<br />
Parameter Value<br />
Number of trading heats 2<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> time per heat 30 minutes<br />
Calendar time per heat 6 months<br />
The <strong>Rotman</strong> Atrium will serve as the trading pit for the traders, while the analysts will share a desktop in the<br />
Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab. It will be the role of the analysts to quantify the impact of news releases<br />
on the RT100 index while traders will be required to react and trade according to the analysts’ instructions.<br />
Market Dynamics<br />
News will be released periodically, comprised of either economic announcements or qualitative news.<br />
Analysts will receive all news releases while traders will receive only a subset of the releases. It will be the role<br />
of analysts to quickly scan and analyze the price impact of news releases on the index after which they must<br />
transfer their findings to the traders on the floor who will trade based on that information. This requires<br />
teams to develop quick and reliable gesture-based communication methods to signal market information and<br />
trading instructions from the analysts to the traders. No verbal or electronic communication methods are<br />
permitted.<br />
Economic announcements will include economist estimates (“street’s estimates”), realized values, and<br />
economic indicator sensitivities. The three economic indicators that affect the value of the RT100 index are:<br />
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Home Builders’ Index (HBI) and Manufacturing Inventories/Purchases (INV)<br />
Index. Participants will trade futures contracts based on their expectations on the future spot prices of the<br />
RT100 index. The change in the RT100 index (based on index points) will be represented by the following<br />
model:<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
14<br />
Quantitative Quantitative Outcry Outcry <strong>Case</strong><br />
<strong>Case</strong>
∆RT100 = (GDPA,n – GDPE,n)GDPS,n + (HBIA,n – HBIE,n)HBIS,n +(INVA,n – INVE,n)INVS,n + Qualitative effects<br />
GDPA,n represents the actual GDP value released for period n,<br />
GDPE,n represents the estimated GDP value for period n, and<br />
GDPS,n represents the sensitivity of the GDP indicator for period n<br />
HBIA,n represents the actual HBI value released for period n,<br />
HBIE,n represents the estimated HBI value for period n, and<br />
HBIS,n represents the sensitivity of the HBI indicator for period n<br />
INVA,n represents the actual INV value released for period n,<br />
INVE,n represents the estimated INV value for period n, and<br />
INVS,n represents the sensitivity of the INV indicator for period n<br />
Qualitative effects represent the impact qualitative news has on the<br />
index as further described below<br />
The change in the RT100 index can be broken down into the difference between actual and estimated values<br />
for the three economic indicators multiplied by the sensitivity of these indicators to these differences plus any<br />
qualitative effects. For example, assume an initial estimate given for HBI of 52, a sensitivity of 10, and the<br />
RT100 index currently trading at 1000. If data released at the end of the month shows that HBI increased to<br />
54, then there is a differential between the estimate and actual figure of 2. This would cause the RT100 index<br />
to increase to 1020 ((54-52) x 10= 20 points), assuming no other news has been released thereafter. During<br />
the competition, news will be released regularly and there will be many more shocks to the RT100 index<br />
before the final settlement.<br />
Based on the data constructed for this case, the starting sensitivities and factor levels are given below:<br />
Factor<br />
Estimate for<br />
Economic Indicators<br />
Sensitivity Initial Level Month1 End<br />
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 5000 2.0% 2.20%<br />
Home Builders' Index (HBI) 10 52.00 54.00<br />
Manufacturing Inventories Index (INV) -5 49.00 50.00<br />
Each time the actual value of an economic factor is released there will be a resulting effect on the spot price<br />
based on the impact formula above. The final value of the spot market will be the sum of all of these effects.<br />
Qualitative news announcements offer news headlines with multiple possible outcomes. Each announcement<br />
will guide traders on potential impacts that the news may have on the RT100 index given the realization of<br />
different scenarios. It is up to the analysts to determine appropriate trading strategies given the information<br />
available at the time of release.<br />
An example of a qualitative release would be that Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Research in Motion Limited (RIMM)<br />
are considering a potential merger. Market observers believe there’s a 75% chance that this merger will occur,<br />
subsequently causing an increase in the index of 10-15 points. Analysts in the trading lab and traders in the<br />
atrium should use this information to forecast expected future changes in the index. Subsequent news<br />
releases will be released to resolve the uncertainty surrounding announced events.<br />
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15<br />
Quantitative Outcry <strong>Case</strong>
Below is an information release schedule outlining when various news items will be released.<br />
Information Release Schedule<br />
Time (seconds) Indicator Released to<br />
0 Month 1 Expectations (Provided Above) Everyone<br />
50 Month 1 HBI Releases Everyone<br />
100 Month 1 Qualitative News Everyone<br />
150 Month 1 INV Releases Everyone<br />
200 Month 1 Qualitative News Everyone<br />
250 Month 1 GDP Releases Everyone<br />
300 Month 2 Expectations Analysts Only<br />
… … …<br />
1550 Month 6 HBI Releases Everyone<br />
1600 Month 6 Qualitative News Everyone<br />
1650 Month 6 INV Releases Everyone<br />
1700 Month 6 Qualitative News Everyone<br />
1750 Month 6 GDP Releases Everyone<br />
1800 End of Heat Analysts Only<br />
Random Times Indicator Sensitivity Change Analysts Only<br />
Aside from the transactions done by traders in the <strong>Rotman</strong> Atrium, analysts in the trading lab are allowed to<br />
make up to three spot trades during each heat, with up to 100 contacts in each trade. The spot trades will be<br />
executed at the current spot price of the RT100 index posted on the screen. These trades will generally allow<br />
each team to have an opportunity to close out their positions in a very quick manner. Moreover, since the<br />
futures market will be driven by trader activity while the spot market is based on the actual economic<br />
indicators realized, there may be slight inefficiencies in the spot market and the futures market enabling<br />
arbitrage profits. These trades are added to the aggregate futures position of the team and are charged<br />
regular trading commissions. The soft and hard trading restriction limits discussed below will apply to trades<br />
made by analysts in the trading lab.<br />
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16<br />
Quantitative Outcry <strong>Case</strong>
<strong>Trading</strong> Limits and Transaction Costs<br />
Each team has a starting position of 0 contracts, a soft trading limit of 200 contracts and a fixed hard trading<br />
limit of 500 contracts on their net positions. Teams will be notified as they approach their soft and hard limits<br />
on a best efforts basis. If a team exceeds its soft limit, it will be charged a fee proportional to how much they<br />
exceed the soft limit. The amount by which a team exceeds the initial soft limit of 200 will become their new<br />
soft limit. The fee per contract above the soft limit is $250.<br />
For instance, if Team A’s net position is at 220, they will be charged a fee of $250 * 20 = $5000 (they have<br />
exceeded their soft limit of 200 by 20 contracts). For Team A, 220 is now the new soft limit. As long as Team<br />
A’s position remains below 220, there will be no additional fees. If Team A bought more and had a new net<br />
position of 280, then they would be charged an additional fee of $250 * 60 = $15000 (The difference between<br />
the new net position and new soft limit). If a team does not exceed its soft limit, it will not be charged any<br />
fees.<br />
Any team that exceeds the hard limit of 500 will be automatically disqualified from the outcry. They will be<br />
given a rank equal to that of last place for that outcry. In addition, there is a zero tolerance policy in regards to<br />
electronic communication. Any trader or analyst seen (by an <strong>RITC</strong> staff member) using or holding a cell phone<br />
during the trading heats will be immediately disqualified. <strong>RITC</strong> staff will be positioned throughout the pit and<br />
the trading lab to police this.<br />
Each contract will be charged a brokerage commission of $1 per contract.<br />
Position Close-Out<br />
Each team’s position will be settled at the end of the trading session by closing out their remaining positions<br />
at the final spot price. Analysts are not graded based on their estimates, though accurate estimates generate<br />
higher trading profits.<br />
Key Objectives<br />
Objective 1:<br />
Generate profits by interpreting news headlines and going long on positive news and short on negative news.<br />
Objective 2:<br />
Design a model to quantify the impact of news on the value of the index to add precision to your<br />
interpretation of news releases. Develop effective communication methods between traders and analysts to<br />
quickly communicate trading strategies based on an analysis of the news releases.<br />
Objective 3:<br />
Capitalize on arbitrage opportunities when there is a divergence between the spot and futures market. Utilize<br />
the three spot trades awarded to analysts at optimal times to maximize profits.<br />
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17<br />
Quantitative Outcry <strong>Case</strong>
BP Canada Commodities <strong>Case</strong><br />
Overview<br />
The BP Canada Commodities case challenges traders’ ability to respond to the highly dynamic world of<br />
commodity trading. Primarily, traders will buy and sell crude oil and related products in response to their<br />
analysis of various news releases affecting the price of oil. In addition, traders will be challenged to take<br />
advantage of arbitrage opportunities occurring in the spot and futures markets as well as across different<br />
locations and crude oil products. Lastly, traders will learn about the physical requirements to trade physical<br />
product, such as storage, pipeline (transportation) and refinery costs.<br />
Description<br />
The BP Canada Commodities case will consist of 2 heats with 2 team members competing for the entire heat.<br />
Each heat will consist of three 20-minute sub-heats to be independently traded and representing two<br />
months, or 40 trading days, of calendar time. Each sub-heat will involve 7 tradable securities and 6 assets.<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> from Excel using the <strong>Rotman</strong> API will be disabled. Real time data (RTD) links will be enabled.<br />
Parameter Value<br />
Number of trading sub-heats 3<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> time per sub-heat 1200 seconds (20 minutes)<br />
Calendar time per sub-heat 2 months<br />
Number of periods per sub-heat 2<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> time per period 600 seconds (10 minutes)<br />
Calendar time per period 1 month<br />
Max order size 30 contracts<br />
Mark-to-market frequency Daily (every 30 seconds)<br />
Market Dynamics<br />
Traders will be able to trade the following seven securities and utilize the following 6 assets as listed below.<br />
Securities<br />
Securities Description Contract Size Shortable<br />
CL Crude oil spot (in Cushing) 1,000 Barrels No<br />
CL-AK Crude oil in Alaska 1,000 Barrels No<br />
CL-NYC Crude oil in New York City 1,000 Barrels No<br />
CL-1F Month 1 futures contract for CL 1,000 Barrels Yes<br />
CL-2F Month 2 futures contract for CL 1,000 Barrels Yes<br />
HO Heating Oil 42,000 Gallons No<br />
RB RBOB Gasoline 42,000 Gallons No<br />
Traders will be able to utilize the following assets which are required for storing, moving, or refining physical<br />
crude product.<br />
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BP BP Canada Canada Commodities Commodities <strong>Case</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
Assets Description<br />
Assets<br />
Capacity Transport or<br />
Conversion Period<br />
Cost<br />
CL-STORAGE Storage for Crude Oil Spot<br />
in Cushing<br />
10K Barrels N/A $500/day<br />
AK-STORAGE Storage for Crude Oil in<br />
Alaska<br />
10K Barrels N/A $500/day<br />
NYC-STORAGE Storage for Crude Oil in<br />
New York City<br />
10K Barrels N/A $500/day<br />
AK-CS-PIPE Pipeline from Alaska to<br />
Cushing<br />
10K Barrels 1 Day (30 seconds) $40,000/use<br />
CS-NYC-PIPE Pipeline from Cushing to 10K Barrels 1 Day (30 seconds) $20,000/use<br />
CL-REFINERY<br />
New York City<br />
Crude Oil Refinery (3:2:1) 30K Barrels 1.5 Days (45<br />
seconds)<br />
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$300,000 per<br />
2 days<br />
*Note: There are no storage requirements for the physical products: RBOB Gasoline and Heating Oil. Automatic storage at no cost<br />
can be assumed for these products.<br />
Traders will need to focus on four main models that interact with the physical (spot) market for crude oil: the<br />
fundamental model, the storage model, the transport model and the refinery model. In the fundamental<br />
model, traders will receive news releases affecting the supply of crude oil, which can be used to forecast<br />
commodity prices. These releases will be amongst updates on geopolitical news and general economic<br />
indicators further affecting the energy market in North America. Traders will respond to the various news<br />
releases by buying and selling futures contracts. In the storage, transport, and refinery models, traders will<br />
balance the costs of operation with expected returns to earn arbitrage profits. For example, based on the<br />
refinery’s fixed cost to operate, traders can calculate when it’s profitable to purchase crude oil, convert it into<br />
products, and sell the products. Similarly, traders can calculate when it’s profitable to purchase crude in<br />
Alaska, transport it to Cushing, and sell crude oil spot.<br />
Fundamental Model<br />
The fundamental model will test the ability of traders to correctly interpret news releases and predict the<br />
price impact on crude oil. The fundamental value of crude oil is based on two distinct factor shocks: news<br />
effects and the weekly EIA reports. In this case, all news releases are independent of one another.<br />
There are 8 weekly EIA reports that will be released. Each report will contain an expected storage build/draw,<br />
and the actual storage build/draw. The fundamental value of CL will adjust at a ratio of $1 for every 10 million<br />
barrel differential. For example, if analysts expected a 6 million barrel build, and the actual EIA value was a 16<br />
million barrel draw, the price of CL would increase by $2.20. (expected +6, actual -16, difference +22).<br />
19<br />
BP Canada Commodities <strong>Case</strong>
In addition, there will be news reports that mention geopolitical events (pipeline outages, geopolitical<br />
tension, etc.) that will affect the supply or demand for crude oil. You should, if at all possible, quantify the<br />
effect of these events - as they will also have an effect on the price of crude oil (CL). These events will have an<br />
effect on the price, but weekly storage values are not directly linked to them.<br />
Information Release Schedule<br />
Time elapsed Release<br />
90 seconds 1st Week EIA Report<br />
240 seconds 2 nd Week EIA Report<br />
390 seconds 3 rd Week EIA Report<br />
540 seconds 4 th Week EIA Report<br />
600 seconds End of period<br />
Random times News Reports<br />
Note: This fundamental model is a simplified version of the previous BP Canada Commodities <strong>Case</strong>.<br />
Storage Model<br />
Traders must lease storage before buying spot crude oil. A storage tank holds up to 10,000 barrels of crude oil<br />
and costs $500 per day (charged every 30 seconds). Each storage tank must be leased in its entirety (i.e.<br />
traders cannot lease half a tank). Note that futures contracts settle at the end of their respective months and<br />
settle into physical product. If traders are long one futures contract of Month 1 crude oil at the end of the first<br />
month, they will receive 1,000 barrels of crude oil spot. If they are short one contract of Month 1 crude oil at<br />
the end of the first month, they will be required to deliver 1,000 barrels of crude oil spot. If traders do not have<br />
sufficient storage upon settlement of their futures contracts, a storage unit will automatically be leased at a<br />
penalty of $2500 per unit in addition to regular lease prices.<br />
There are three storage tanks available for lease, one for crude oil in each region: CL-STORAGE, AK-<br />
STORAGE, NYC-STORAGE. Traders are limited to having up to 10 of each storage unit simultaneously.<br />
Transportation Model<br />
Traders are able to transport crude oil from one location to another. Doing so effectively converts crude oil in<br />
location A to crude oil in location B. For example, transporting 1000 barrels of crude oil from Cushing to NYC<br />
converts 1000 barrels of CL into CL-NYC.<br />
In order to transport crude oil, traders must “lease and use” pipelines. Unlike storage, pipelines must be used<br />
immediately after lease. The transport process will take 30 seconds to complete. The pipeline will<br />
automatically be released at the end of the lease period.<br />
There are two pipelines available: AK-CS-PIPE and CS-NYC-PIPE. (Oil only flows one way in these pipes, from<br />
the location of supply to the location of demand). Traders are limited to leasing up to 10 of each pipeline<br />
simultaneously.<br />
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BP BP Canada Canada Commodities Commodities <strong>Case</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
A pipeline can transport up to 10,000 barrels of crude oil at a time and costs $1100 per use. This cost is subject<br />
to change at random times during the case. Traders will be notified of changes to pipeline costs through news<br />
releases.<br />
Refinery Model<br />
Traders are able to refine crude oil to produce RBOB gasoline and heating oil. The Crude Oil Refinery (3:2:1)<br />
converts 3 contracts (3000 barrels) of crude oil in Cushing into 2 contracts (84,000 gallons ) of RBOB gasoline<br />
and 1 contract (42,000 gallons) of heating oil, hence the (3:2:1) specification. Each trader will be limited to<br />
using one refinery at a time.<br />
To refine crude oil, traders must lease refineries. The lease price covers the cost of production, additives, and<br />
the facility. Each lease period is 2 days (60 seconds), and the refining process will take 45 seconds to<br />
complete. Once the refinery process is complete, traders must “release” the refinery otherwise they will be<br />
charged for another lease period of 2 days.<br />
There is one refinery available in Cushing: CL-REFINERY.<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> Limits and Transaction Costs<br />
Each trader will be subject to gross and net trading limits of 500 contracts and 100 contracts respectively. The<br />
gross trading limit reflects the sum of the absolute values of the long and short positions across all securities<br />
and cannot exceed 500 contracts. The net trading limit reflects the sum of long and short positions such that<br />
short positions negate any long positions and has an upper bound of 100 contracts of crude equivalent<br />
products. <strong>Trading</strong> limits will be strictly enforced and traders will not be able to exceed them.<br />
For example, a long position of 1 crude oil contract (1000 barrels) and a short position of 1 futures contract<br />
(1000 barrels) results in a net limit usage of 0/100 and a gross limit usage of 2/500. Similarly, for heating oil or<br />
RBOB gasoline, a long position of 1 contract (42,000 gallons) and short position of 1 contact result in a net<br />
limit usage of 0/100 and a gross limit usage of 2/500.<br />
The maximum trade size will be 30 contracts, restricting the volume of contracts transacted per trade to 30.<br />
Transaction fees will be set at $1 per contract traded.<br />
Position Close-Out<br />
All positions will be marked-to-market every 30 seconds with any profits and losses reflected in the traders’<br />
cash balance by the mark-to-market operation. Futures contracts will settle at the end of each period and be<br />
converted into CL. The final value of CL will be based on the formula described earlier.<br />
Crude in Alaska and NYC, and the RBOB and HO products will be valued at their last traded price.<br />
Computerized market makers will increase the liquidity in the market towards the end of trading to ensure<br />
the closing price cannot be manipulated.<br />
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21<br />
BP Canada Commodities <strong>Case</strong>
Key Objectives<br />
Objective 1:<br />
Generate profits by reacting to news headlines and going long crude oil and its related products during supply<br />
shortfalls and shorting them during times of supply excess. This will create profits from changes in the price of<br />
the crude oil, futures and products.<br />
Objective 2:<br />
Design a model to calculate the effect of news releases on the price of crude oil products in order to maximize<br />
trading profits. Traders will be provided with a basic RIT-linked Excel model which will allow them to input<br />
their expectations to generate buy/sell signals. It is highly recommended that traders enhance this basic<br />
model or design one from scratch in order to more effectively trade and understand the case.<br />
Objective 3:<br />
Find and capitalize on arbitrage opportunities between different crude oil locations, futures and products.<br />
Traders may go one step further and incorporate arbitrage indicators into their model to notify them of<br />
arbitrage opportunities in order to maximize potential profits. There will also be bid-ask spreads observable in<br />
the market between 2-5 cents from which traders may profit.<br />
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22<br />
BP BP Canada Canada Commodities Commodities <strong>Case</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
Thomson Reuters QED <strong>Case</strong><br />
Overview<br />
The Thomson Reuters Quantitative and Event Driven (QED) case mimics QED trading and challenges<br />
participants to interpret news headline effects on security quotes using real QED relevance and sentiment<br />
scores. The Thomson Reuters Quantitative and Event Driven <strong>Trading</strong> solution set provides unique content,<br />
technology, and data management capabilities for exploiting market opportunities.<br />
Description<br />
There will be 2 heats with 2 team members competing for the entire heat. Each heat will consist of six 10minute<br />
sub-heats with each sub-heat to be independently traded and representing one month of calendar<br />
time. Each sub-heat will also involve the same four securities with individual volatility and liquidity<br />
characteristics loosely based on their real-life counterparts.<br />
Parameter Value<br />
Number of trading sub-heats 6<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> time per sub-heat 600 seconds (10 minutes)<br />
Calendar time per sub-heat 1 month (30 days)<br />
News headlines will be randomly released for each security and may include information about the specific<br />
company, its competitors, or the industry as a whole. Each headline will include corresponding relevance,<br />
positive, negative and neutral QED scores from which the resulting effect of the news on the stock price will<br />
be determined. <strong>Trading</strong> from excel using <strong>Rotman</strong> API will be disabled. Real time data (RTD) links will be<br />
enabled.<br />
Market Dynamics<br />
In each sub-heat, traders will be able to trade the following 4 securities with the following starting prices:<br />
DELL LVMH RIMM VOWG<br />
Starting Price $20.00 $80.00 $15.00 $85.00<br />
Profits can be generated by correctly interpreting the headlines and forecasting the changes in the fair value<br />
of each security. Each news item will affect only one security with its impact determined by a specific formula<br />
derived from the QED scores. Please be aware that while the news and QED scores released are real data<br />
provided by Thomson Reuters, the market impact will be determined solely by the formula below and are<br />
independent of the real life impacts of the news items.<br />
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Thomson Reuters QED <strong>Case</strong>
The effect on price of any individual news item will be determined as follows:<br />
The effect of news release n for security s, is equal to the αs,n coefficient multiplied by the news releases’<br />
positive QED score, minus the βs,n coefficient multiplied by the news releases’ negative QED score, all divided<br />
by the γs coefficient added to the news releases’ neutral QED score. This is all multiplied by the relevance<br />
score for the news release as well as the security’s opening price to determine the impact of the news. The<br />
alpha and beta coefficient for each stock begins at 0.25, but for each subsequent release, will change<br />
depending on the previous release’s sentiment (positive minus negative).<br />
Each news item will come with corresponding relevance and sentiment QED scores.<br />
Independent for each news item<br />
Poss,n Positive QED Score for security s and news n<br />
Negs,n Negative QED Score for security s and news n<br />
Neus,n Neutral QED Score for security s and news n<br />
Relevance QED Score for security s and news n<br />
Rels,n<br />
Each security will have starting αs,n, βs,n, and γs coefficients that determine the price impact of news. The table<br />
below outlines starting values for all coefficients.<br />
Starting Values Coefficient<br />
αs,n<br />
0.25<br />
βs,n<br />
0.25<br />
γDELL<br />
1.6<br />
γLVMH<br />
2.3<br />
γRIMM<br />
1.3<br />
2.0<br />
γVOWG<br />
The coefficient γs is unique and constant for each security. The αs,n and βs,n coefficients will all be assigned a<br />
starting value of 0.25 across all four securities but are dynamic and unique for each individual news item.<br />
These coefficients will change with respect to the sentiment of last period’s news such that there is a<br />
diminishing marginal effect of positive or negative news on the security’s price. For example, if the last news<br />
release had been very positive and the most recent news released is positive as well, the security’s price will<br />
increase at a lower amount than had the previous release been neutral.<br />
Teams are encouraged to understand and model the relationship between the QED scores and the price<br />
impact in order to evaluate the effect news releases will have on each stock. This price effect however will be<br />
subject to two important market conditions creating opportunities to profit. First of all, market reaction to<br />
the news will be slightly delayed, giving traders time to interpret, react and capitalize on the releases.<br />
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24<br />
Thomson Reuters QED <strong>Case</strong>
Secondly, the market may over or under react to news headlines, eventually correcting itself to reflect the<br />
correct price impact. During this time, traders have the opportunity to capitalize on security mispricing and<br />
drive the market to the correct price. The final price of a security will be equal to the summation of the<br />
security’s initial price and the effect of the news headlines as per the price impact formula.<br />
For example, the final price of each stock will be determined as follows:<br />
PRIMM, close = PRIMM, open + NewsRIMM,1 + NewsRIMM,2+ NewsRIMM,3 +…<br />
In other words, the final price of RIMM stock will be equal to the starting price plus the aggregate of each<br />
RIMM news effect.<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> Limits and Transaction Costs<br />
Each trader will be subject to gross and net trading limits of 250,000 and 100,000 respectively. The gross<br />
trading limit reflects the sum of the absolute values of the long and short positions across all securities and<br />
cannot exceed 250,000 shares. The net trading limit reflects the sum of long and short positions such that<br />
short positions negate any long positions and has an upper bound of 100,000 shares. <strong>Trading</strong> limits will be<br />
strictly enforced and traders will not be able to exceed them.<br />
The maximum trade size will be 25,000 shares, restricting the volume of shares transacted per trade to<br />
25,000. Transaction fees will be set at $0.01 per share for DELL and RIMM and will be at $0.02 per share for<br />
LVMH and VOWG.<br />
Position Close-Out<br />
Any non-zero position in either stock will be closed out at the end of trading based on the final price formula<br />
described above. All long and short positions will then be closed out based on that price.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
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25<br />
Thomson Reuters QED <strong>Case</strong>
Key Objectives<br />
Objective 1:<br />
Generate profits by reacting to news headlines and going long on positive news and short on negative news.<br />
Depending on the magnitude of the QED ratios, the stock value may be forecasted to increase, decrease or<br />
remain relatively unaffected by the specific news headline. Teams may consider splitting the workload by<br />
having each member specialize in certain securities.<br />
Objective 2:<br />
Calculate the fair price of the security to add precision to your trading strategy in order to maximize trading<br />
profits. Capitalize on market mispricing and over or under reactions. Traders can also build and use a RITlinked<br />
Excel model to retrieve the news headlines and QED scores directly into Excel to expedite the<br />
calculation of the price impact of news. The best teams will be able to capitalize on market opportunities by<br />
calculating the cumulative price impact of the news items using the QED scores to determine the expected<br />
closing value.<br />
A sample Excel sheet will be attached with the sample data set documenting a few functions which may be<br />
useful for teams to use in order to parse the QED scores from the headlines.<br />
Objective 3:<br />
Structure your portfolio optimally with respect to the gross and net trading limits. Use a combination of short<br />
and long positions to maximize use of your limits.<br />
Thomson Reuters is the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. We<br />
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26<br />
Thomson Reuters QED <strong>Case</strong>
Options <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
Overview<br />
The Options <strong>Trading</strong> case gives traders the opportunity to generate profits by applying options trading<br />
strategies. The underlying asset of the options is an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) called RTM that mimics a<br />
major stock index. Traders will be able to trade shares of the ETF and 1-month call/put options with 10<br />
different strike prices. Information including the stock price, option prices, and news releases will be provided.<br />
Participants are encouraged to use the information provided to forecast the future volatility of the underlying<br />
RTM and construct options strategies that will profit from the volatility of the underlying.<br />
Description<br />
There will be 2 heats with 2 team members competing for the entire heat. Each heat will consist of six 10minute<br />
sub-heats with each sub-heat to be independently traded and representing one month of calendar<br />
time.<br />
Parameter Value<br />
Number of trading sub-heats 6<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> time per sub-heat 600 seconds<br />
Calendar time per sub-heat 1 month (20 days)<br />
During the case, news will be released and traders will be able to transact shares of RTM or options. <strong>Trading</strong><br />
from excel using <strong>Rotman</strong> API will be disabled. Real time data (RTD) links will be enabled.<br />
Market Dynamics<br />
Traders will be able to the RTM stock index, or twenty separate options contracts on the RTM.<br />
Price Call Ticker Strike Price Put Ticker Price<br />
$5.05 RTM45C 45 RTM45P $0.05<br />
$4.11 RTM46C 46 RTM46P $0.11<br />
$3.22 RTM47C 47 RTM47P $0.22<br />
$2.42 RTM48C 48 RTM48P $0.42<br />
$1.72 RTM49C 49 RTM49P $0.72<br />
$1.16 RTM50C 50 RTM50P $1.16<br />
$0.74 RTM51C 51 RTM51P $1.74<br />
$0.45 RTM52C 52 RTM52P $2.45<br />
$0.26 RTM53C 53 RTM53P $3.26<br />
$0.14 RTM54C 54 RTM54P $4.14<br />
All securities are priced by a very large market-maker that will always quote a bid-ask spread of 2 cents (i.e.<br />
$50.00x50.02 for the RTM, or $4.14x$4.16 for the RTM46C). The bids and asks are for an infinite quantity<br />
(there are no liquidity constraints in this case).<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
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Options <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
The price of the underlying stock index, RTM, is a random-walk and the path is generated using the following<br />
process:<br />
The price of the stock is based on the previous price multiplied by a return which is drawn from a normal<br />
distribution with a mean of zero and standard deviation (volatility) of sigma. Sigma’s starting value is 20%<br />
(on an annualized basis).<br />
The trading period is divided into 4 weeks, with t=1...150 being week one, t = 151…300 week two, and so on.<br />
At the beginning of each week, the volatility value (sigma) will shift, and the new value will be provided to<br />
traders. In addition, at the middle of each week (i.e. t=75) an estimate of next week’s volatility value will be<br />
announced.<br />
The observed and tradable prices of the options will be based on a computerized market-maker posting bids<br />
and offers for all options. The market maker will price the options using the Black-Scholes pricing model.<br />
The volatility forecasts made by the market maker are uninformed, and therefore will not accurately reflect<br />
the future volatility of the underlying RTM. Mispricing will occur, creating trading opportunities for market<br />
participants. These opportunities could be between specific options with respect to other options, specific<br />
options with respect to the underlying, or all options with respect to the underlying.<br />
Information Release Schedule<br />
Time Week Release<br />
1 Week 1 The volatility of RTM for this week is 20%<br />
75 Week 1 The forecast for RTM’s volatility next week is 24-27%<br />
150 Week 2 The volatility of RTM for this week is 25%<br />
….<br />
450 Week 4 The volatility of RTM for this week is 32%<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
28<br />
Options <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
<strong>Trading</strong> Limits and Transaction Costs<br />
Each trader will be subject to gross and net trading limits specific to the security type and specified below.<br />
The gross trading limit reflects the sum of the absolute values of the long and short positions across all<br />
securities while the net trading limit reflects the sum of long and short positions such that short positions<br />
negate any long positions. <strong>Trading</strong> limits will be strictly enforced and traders will not be able to exceed them.<br />
Security Type Gross Limit Net Limit<br />
RTM Equity 50,000 Shares 50,000 Shares<br />
RTM Options 2,500 Contracts 1,000 Contracts<br />
The maximum trade size will be 10,000 shares for RTM equity and 100 contracts for RTM options, restricting<br />
the volume of shares and contracts transacted per trade to 10,000 and 100 respectively. Transaction fees will<br />
be set at $0.02 per share traded for RTM equity and $2.00 per contract traded for RTM options. As with<br />
standard options markets, each contract represents 100 shares (purchasing 1 contract for $0.35 will actually<br />
cost $35 plus a $2 commission, and settle based on the exercise value of 100 shares).<br />
Position Close-Out<br />
Any outstanding position in the RTM index will be closed at the end of trading based on the last-traded price.<br />
Computerized market makers will increase the liquidity in the market towards the end of trading to ensure<br />
the closing price cannot be manipulated. All options will be cash-settled based on their exercise value.<br />
Key Objectives<br />
Objective 1:<br />
Build a model to forecast the future volatility of the underlying stock based on known information and given<br />
forecasts. Traders should use this model with an options pricing model to determine whether the market<br />
prices for options are currently overvalued or undervalued. They should then make trades in the specific<br />
options accordingly.<br />
Objective 2:<br />
Consider using options Greeks to calculate their portfolio exposure and hedge their position to reduce the risk<br />
of their portfolio while capturing volatility differentials across options. Traders should also look for arbitrage<br />
opportunities across different options strikes/series.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
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29<br />
Options <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong><br />
Overview<br />
Algorithmic trading is a method used to manage both the market impact of trades as well as automate<br />
market making operations. This is achieved by dividing larger volume orders into smaller trades and<br />
submitting them electronically. This case involves 3 stocks and 1 ETF with varying levels of volatility and<br />
liquidity, and it exposes traders to the basics of market microstructure in the context of algorithmic trading.<br />
ETF pricing will reflect the sum of the 3 stocks traded, subject to periodic shocks to its price. Traders will be<br />
required to program algorithms using Excel VBA to automate the market-making process and react to<br />
changing market conditions. Throughout the case, the algorithms developed will submit orders to create and<br />
unwind positions in response to market conditions, in addition to maximizing profits from the bid-ask spread<br />
and benefiting from any arbitrage opportunities that arise. Due to the high-frequency nature of the case,<br />
traders may face challenges in developing algorithms to adapt to changes in market dynamics.<br />
Description<br />
There will be 4 rounds with 1 team member competing in each round. Any team member may represent the<br />
team in any one or all of the rounds. Each round will consist of three 5-minute sub-heats representing one<br />
hour of trading. Each team will be trading with up to 13 additional teams at a time.<br />
Parameter Value<br />
Number of trading rounds 4 preliminary rounds + 1 final round<br />
Number of trading sub-heats 3<br />
<strong>Trading</strong> time per sub-heat 300 seconds (5 minutes)<br />
Calendar time per sub-heat 1 trading day<br />
All trades must be automatically executed by a trading algorithm. Traders will not be allowed to trade<br />
through the RIT Client once the case begins. However, traders are allowed to and encouraged to use and<br />
modify their Excel spreadsheets in response to prevailing market conditions and competition from the<br />
algorithms of other teams. In addition, they will have 3 minutes in between each sub-heat to alter their<br />
algorithm. A base template algorithm will be provided for traders and can be directly modified for use in the<br />
competition. Alternatively, traders can create their own algorithm using Excel VBA.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
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30<br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
Market Dynamics<br />
Each trader will be able to trade four securities of which the details are shown below.<br />
ALGO FRTL <strong>RITC</strong> RETF<br />
Starting Price $20 $20 $20 $60<br />
Fee / share (Market orders) $0.01 $0.01 $0.01 $0.03<br />
Rebate<br />
orders)<br />
/ share (Limit/Passive $0.005 $0.005 $0.005 $0.015<br />
Max order size 10,000 10,000 10,000 5,000<br />
Annualized volatility 25% 18% 32% 14%<br />
Liquidity Medium High Low Medium<br />
Type Stock Stock Stock ETF<br />
Traders will be given endowments during each sub-heat following the schedule below. Note that these<br />
endowments are priced at the starting price (i.e. $20 for ALGO, FRTL, <strong>RITC</strong>, and $60 for RETF).<br />
Tick of Endowment ALGO FRTL <strong>RITC</strong> RETF<br />
50 4,000 2,500 -1,800 0<br />
100 0 1,700 2,700 4,000<br />
150 0 -4,000 5,000 0<br />
There will be no information provided that will allow teams to predict the future price or direction of any<br />
security. In addition, all teams will start with the same initial positions at the beginning of each sub-heat.<br />
While unwinding their positions, teams may choose to simultaneously have their algorithm automatically<br />
generate and execute orders in other markets. A fee-rebate structure will be instituted to compensate traders<br />
for the addition of liquidity through limit orders. As such, traders will have the opportunity to generate returns<br />
by market making.<br />
Traders will be penalized for having an open position at the end of any individual sub-heat. This penalty will be<br />
levied against the final Net Liquidation Value for that sub-heat. The calculation for the penalty is as follows:<br />
Please be aware that this penalty applies to each of the four securities separately which emphasizes the<br />
importance of closing out your position across all securities. Furthermore, although RIT automatically closes<br />
out your position at the conclusion of the case, this is not considered a valid closeout by the trader. Any<br />
positions closed out by RIT are considered to be an open position at the close.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
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CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
<strong>Trading</strong> Limits and Transaction Costs<br />
Time of Subheat<br />
(tick)<br />
0 ~ 240 240 ~ 299 300<br />
Gross/Net 200,000/40,000 100,000/20,000 100,000/0<br />
Each trader will be subject to gross and net trading limits which will change over each sub-heat. The gross<br />
trading limit reflects the sum of the absolute values of the long and short positions across all securities and<br />
the net trading limit reflects the sum of long and short positions such that short positions negate any long<br />
positions. <strong>Trading</strong> limits will be strictly enforced and traders will not be able to exceed them. Each position in<br />
stock will be counted towards trading limits with a multiplier of 1, while each position in the ETF will be<br />
counted with a multiplier of 3 ((i.e. If you long 100 shares of any stocks, your gross and the net trading limits<br />
will increase by 100. If you long 100 positions of RETF, your gross and net trading limits will increase by 300<br />
(100 positions * multiplier of 3).<br />
The maximum trade size will be 10,000 shares for stocks and 5,000 shares for the ETF, restricting the volume<br />
of shares transacted per trade to 10,000 shares for stocks and 5,000 shares for the ETF. Transaction fees will be<br />
set at $0.01 per share for stocks and $0.03 per share for the ETF on all market orders filled. Subsequently, a<br />
rebate of $0.005 per share for stocks and $0.015 per share for the ETF will be given for all submitted limit<br />
orders that are filled. Due to this rebate structure, it is possible for a trader to be profitable after buying and<br />
selling a security at the same price, provided that the trader uses limit orders.<br />
Position Close-Out<br />
Any non-zero position in either stock will be closed out at the end of trading based on the last traded price. It is<br />
strongly suggested that traders close out their positions prior to the end of trading period as open positions<br />
will be subject to the penalty described above.<br />
Key Objectives<br />
Objective 1:<br />
Edit the template provided and optimize the trading parameters such that the algorithm efficiently balances a)<br />
trading frequently and large positions while b) minimizing price risk. Successful algorithms manage to transact<br />
large amounts of shares while keeping their position (and risk) very small.<br />
Objective 2:<br />
Consider rewriting and redesigning the algorithm using your own logic. Since the same template is being<br />
provided to all participants, there is a limitation on your ability to differentiate yourself by simply modifying<br />
the base template.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
© Financial Research and <strong>Trading</strong> Lab, <strong>Rotman</strong> School of Management, U of T<br />
32<br />
CIBC Algorithmic <strong>Trading</strong> <strong>Case</strong>
Appendix<br />
Some supplementary files will be released prior to the competition as they are available. Announcements will<br />
be made on the <strong>RITC</strong> website when these files are released.<br />
Please send any case-related questions to ritc@rotman.utoronto.ca. To ensure the fair dissemination of<br />
information, responses to your questions will be posted online for all participants to see.<br />
<strong>Rotman</strong> <strong>International</strong> <strong>Trading</strong> Competition <strong>2012</strong><br />
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33<br />
Appendix