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24 Table 4: Market Assumptions and Impacts Market Force Assumption Impact Macroeconomics Economic Recovery India's GDP Other Asian economies Protectionist policies GOI initiatives Global economies will continue to recover at generally slow rates for 2010 and 2011. After 2011, worldwide GDPs will return to near-normal rates in most countries. High (+) A down economy affects business and consumer confidence, investment and internal funding. Geospatial markets will be inhibited worldwide through 2011. India's economy will outpace most other economies, achieving a growth rate of High (+). Indian Geospatial markets will grow 6.5% in 2010. India will see robust GDP at relatively high rates for the forecast period growth for the rest of the forecast period Most Asian countries are developing technology service capabilities. Those capabilities will continue to grow during the forecast period As unemployment remains high, some countries may enact protectionist policies that inhibit outsourcing to India. The Government of India will continue to fund significant economic and civil infrastructure initiatives at planned rates. Technology/Service Developments Geospatial & IT Standards IT transformation Mobility Cloud computing Labor Supply Supply of skilled Geospatial workers Capitalization Venture capital Market Characteristics Government Policies Open Source Converging consumer and enterprise expectations Market Ecosystem User as participant & data provider Standards will continue to grow in importance within IT systems. OGC standards will become a common requirement for many IT systems that incorporate Geospatial capabilities. IT transformation and ICT convergence will continue and are likely to accelerate User interfaces and computing are migrating to mobile devices at the edges of the <strong>net</strong>work. This migration will occur quickly and will change the dominant design of information systems. Mobile devices generate volumes of geospatial data that can be analyzed and used. Cloud computing appears to be a disruptive technology. Early clouds will simply duplicate current IT approaches. But going forward, clouds will become platforms for a new generation of enterprise IT capabilities. Geospatial technologies will become an invisible and often marginal element in those clouds. India's educational systems are not providing a sufficient number of skilled Geospatial workers. Many of the current curricula are training people for yesterday's jobs. The lack of venture capital and other funding mechanisms for new ventures will persist. Indian policies are likely to continue to constraint the access to Geospatial information and hence not likely to foster the use of standards or design for integration. Open Source software will continue to be a strong influence in enterprise and consumer-facing systems. Increasingly, enterprise users expect the same simple interfaces, sophisticated search and free access that they experience as consumers. Users will take an increasingly active role as participants, data providers and co-designers of the information systems they use. Moderate(-) Other Asian countries will be able to compete with India on price, forcing Indian technology service providers to differentiate in other ways High (-) If one or more of the countries that outsource to India enact protectionist policies, the Indian outsourcing industry will diminish proportionately High (+) Most GOI initiatives will require significant additional geospatial capacity. High(+)The intelligent use of standards accelerates IT development and lowers implementation risks, making Geospatial technologies more attractive and less risky to implement. High(+/-) Geospatial capabilities will increasingly become an element within transformed ICT environments, broadening markets, but requiring new skills and business models. High(+) Mobility and mobility devices will create a whole new range of Geospatial applications and business. However, those applications will be completely different than the traditional. Vendors will have to retool to meet demand. After a period of adjustment, mobility will sharply increase Geospatial opportunities. High (+/-) Cloud computing will decrease the need for traditional systems integration and will change the requirements and profitability of established service providers. In the short run, vendors will see decreased revenue and increased competition. In the longer term, cloud computing will open significant new markets. Moderate (-) The lack of skilled workers will constrain the development of new Geospatial capacity and will drive labor costs higher. Moderate (-) Few new Geospatial startups will be able to break out of their initial niches. Most new business will accrue to established firms Moderate (-) Policy constraints likely to impede the acquisition and dissemination of Geospatial data and thus limiting development of new Geospatial business Moderate (+/-) Open Source software tends to drive prices lower and also tends to broaden the reach of IT systems. Open Source will become an important tool in keeping Indian technology costs competitive High (+/-) Geospatial systems will have to adopt interfaces and capabilities found in consumer applications. Applications that require extensive training will fare poorly. Meeting these user expectations will require retooling many development processes High (+/-) The user's changing role will obsolete many current practices and conventions. Vendors may be able to benefit from more active user participation. geospatial industry being bi-modal, one segment servicing international markets, and the other segment serving internal needs, it is prudent to address the two segments separately. Recommendations International geospatial service industry Prepare for global IT and service transformation. Information technology is transforming to an always-on, realtime phenomena that pervades every aspect of business and social life. In the past, IT involved the maintenance of mainframe systems that were connected to PCs. Now, IT is about a complex <strong>net</strong>work of computers, phones, building automation, sensors and mobile devices that are deeply imbedded in the fabric of business and industry. Web 2.0 and real-time business analytics are driving applications directly to the customer or employee and becoming mission-critical on the way. In the transforming IT environment, the geospatial information part of IT infrastructure will be constantly updated by location-specific transactions and sensors - automatically. Open standards and increasingly open access will make geospatial information an integral, but invisible part of customer and business experience. This transformation may take a decade to realise. As IT transformation progresses, traditional project-based geospatial services are likely to become increasingly less necessary and may eventually diminish. Indian businesses/ geospatial industry needs to adapt to this transformation by building deeper design, innovation and service delivery capabilities, so that they are ready for new IT demands. The key is to continue to remain relevant and viable in this dynamic environment. Prepare for increasing competition from other Asian countries. India has firmly entrenched its position in providing off-shore geospatial services and IT services gen- 6,000.00 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Figure 4: Revenue Capacity (`Cr) Revenue Capacity (Rs. Crore) Geospatial World I September 2010
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