HALF THE WORLD’S POPULATION LIVES IN CITIESMore than half of the population of the world now lives in cities. From slightly under 30% in 1950, in 2007 thelevel of urbanization has reached the 50% mark and the United Nations calculates that by 2030 it could bejust over 60%. The planet now has 3.3 billion townspeople, i.e. four and a half times more than in 1950. In2030, urban populations will reach 5 billion; by then there will be more people living in cities than the wholeof the world population in 1987.Africa and Asia are less urbanized than the other continentsThe degree of urbanization differs by continent: the most advanced, Europe and North America, are also themost urbanized – three quarters of the population are town dwellers, but Latin America, although lessdeveloped, is also very urbanized (78%) (Table 1). On the other hand, Africa and Asia remain essentiallyrural. Urbanization is, however, progressing: by 2030 a majority will be townspeople; moreover, thesecontinents, the most populated, will possess the largest cities.Although Asia is still relatively little urbanized, with three fifths of the world’s population, it houses nearly halfof the world’s town dwellers; together China and India house over a quarter.Between 1950 and 2005, urban populations grew at a rate of less than 1.4% in developed countries but atover 3.6% in developing areas. Urban growth is highest in Africa – with an average of 4.3% per year, andslowest in Europe – less than 1.2%. The growth of urbanization has also been rapid in Asia and LatinAmerica, at a rate of 3.4 and 3.3% respectively over the same period.The analysis of urbanization can be complemented by a study of large towns and their dynamism,accentuated by the fact that a country may possess a very large city without being necessarily veryurbanized. This is the case for Pakistan, where the level of urbanization was only 35% in 2005, but wherethe largest city, Karachi, with a population of nearly 12 million, comes 13 th on the list of the largest urbanareas in the world.An ever-increasing number of very large citiesTowns are differentiated in particular by their size. A town dweller may be someone living in a medium-sizedtown or in a large urban agglomeration of over 10 million inhabitants, although they may have widelycontrasting life styles.In 2005, urban populations were almost equally divided between towns of less than or more than 500,000inhabitants. The demographic weight of large urban agglomerations – with a population of over 10 million –has grown considerably over the last 30 years, from 3.5% of total urban population in 1975 to 9.3% in 2005.While in 1975 only three cities had a population of over 10 million (Tokyo, New York and Mexico City), therewere 20 in 2005 (Table 2). Nearly 300 million people now live in these very large urban agglomerations,nearly six times more than in 1975.The proportion of people living in urban areas with between 500,000 and 10 million inhabitants has hardlychanged since 1975, but the number of areas falling into this category has doubled from 420 to 849. It has infact also doubled in each sub-category: agglomerations of 500,000 to 1 million inhabitants, from 1 to 5million, and from 5 to 10 million.Source: Jacques VéronInstitut national d’Études démographiques, Paris (Populations & Sociétés),and the United Nations43
Table 1 – Total population and the rate of urbanization on the different continents1950 2007 2030Total population(in millions)North America 172 339 405Latin America and the Caribbean 167 572 713Europe 547 731 707Oceania 13 34 43Africa 221 965 1 518Asia 1 398 4 030 4 931Total 2 535 6 671 8 317Rate of urbanization (in %)(proportion of the population living in towns)North America 64 81 87Latin America and the Caribbean 42 78 85Europe 51 74 80Oceania 61 73 75Africa 15 41 54Asia 15 41 55Total 29 50 61Note :The figures shown for 2030 are those of the median estimates of the United NationsAccording to estimates of the United Nations, 20 urban agglomerations had over 10 million inhabitants in2005. While the largest, Tokyo, is situated in a developed country, the majority are in developing regions(Table 2). China and India, where the degree of urbanization is less than the average for developingcountries, have, respectively, two and three of the largest cities of the world: Shanghai and Beijing, on theone hand, and Bombay, New Delhi and Calcutta on the other.Table 2 – Urban agglomerations of over 10 million inhabitants in 1975 and 2005 and forecasts for 2015(in millions)1975 2005 2015 (projections)Tokyo 26,6 Tokyo 35,2 Tokyo 35,5New York 15,9 Mexico 19,4 Bombay 21,9Mexico 10,7 New York 18,7 Mexico 21,6São Paulo 18,3 São Paulo 20,5Bombay 18,2 New York 19,9New Delhi 15,0 New Delhi 18,6Shanghai 14,5 Shanghai 17,2Calcutta 14,3 Calcutta 17,0Jakarta 13,2 Dhaka 16,8Buenos Aires 12,6 Jakarta 16,8Dhaka 12,4 Lagos 16,1Los Angeles 12,3 Karachi 15,2Karachi 11,7 Buenos Aires 13,4Rio de Janeiro 11,5 Cairo 13,1Osaka-Kobe 11,3 Los Angeles 13,1Cairo 11,1 Manilla 12,9Lagos 10,9 Beijing 12,8Beijing 10,8 Rio de Janeiro 12,8Manilla 10,7 Osaka-Kobe 11,3Moscow 10,7 Istanbul 11,2Moscow 11,0Guangzhou 10,444