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<strong>Center</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Financial</strong> Studies<br />

Goethe-Universität Frankfurt � House of Finance<br />

Grüneburgplatz 1 � 60323 Frankfurt � Deutschl<strong>and</strong><br />

CFS WORKING P APER<br />

No. 2012/19<br />

<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Transparency</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Electoral</strong> <strong>Pressure</strong><br />

Laura Moretti <strong>and</strong> Toru Suzuki<br />

Telefon: +49 (0)69 798-30050<br />

Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077<br />

http://www.ifk-cfs.de � E-Mail: info@ifk-cfs.de


<strong>Center</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Financial</strong> Studies<br />

Goethe-Universität � House of Finance<br />

Grüneburgplatz 1 � 60323 Frankfurt am Main � Deutschl<strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Center</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Financial</strong> Studies<br />

The <strong>Center</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Financial</strong> Studies, located in Goethe University’s House of Finance in<br />

Frankfurt, is an independent non-profit research center, funded by the non-profitmaking<br />

organisation Gesellschaft für Kapitalmarkt<strong>for</strong>schung e.V. (GfK). The CFS is<br />

financed by donations <strong>and</strong> by contributions of the GfK members, as well as by national<br />

<strong>and</strong> international research grants. The GfK members comprise major players in Germany’s<br />

financial industry. Established in 1967 <strong>and</strong> closely affiliated with the University<br />

of Frankfurt, it provides a strong link between the financial community <strong>and</strong> academia.<br />

CFS is also a contributor to policy debates <strong>and</strong> policy analyses, building upon relevant<br />

findings in its research areas.<br />

The CFS Working Paper Series presents the result of scientific research on selected<br />

topics in the field of money, banking <strong>and</strong> finance. The authors were either participants<br />

in the <strong>Center</strong>´s Research Fellow Program or members of one of the <strong>Center</strong>´s Research<br />

Projects.<br />

If you would like to know more about the <strong>Center</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Financial</strong> Studies, please let us<br />

know of your interest.<br />

Prof. Michalis Haliassos, Ph.D. Prof. Dr. Jan Pieter Krahnen Prof. Dr. Uwe Walz<br />

Telefon: +49 (0)69 798-30050<br />

Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077<br />

http://www.ifk-cfs.de � E-Mail: info@ifk-cfs.de


CFS Working Paper No. 2012/19<br />

<strong>Strategic</strong> <strong>Transparency</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Electoral</strong> <strong>Pressure</strong> *<br />

Laura Moretti 1 <strong>and</strong> Toru Suzuki 2<br />

December 4, 2012<br />

Abstract<br />

This paper investigates how an office-motivated incumbent can use transparency enhancement<br />

on public spending to signal his budgetary management ability <strong>and</strong> win re-election. We show that<br />

when the incumbent faces a popular challenger, transparency policy can be an effective signaling<br />

device. A more popular challenger can reduce the probability to enhance transparency, while<br />

voters can be better off due to a more in<strong>for</strong>mative signaling. It is also shown that a higher level of<br />

public interest in fiscal issues can increase the probability of enhancing transparency, while voters<br />

can be worse off by a les in<strong>for</strong>mative signaling.<br />

JEL Classifications: D72, D82<br />

Keywords: Fiscal <strong>Transparency</strong>, <strong>Electoral</strong> <strong>Pressure</strong>, Signaling Game, Perfect Sequential<br />

Equilibrium<br />

1 Introduction<br />

Enhancing fiscal transparency has been a central part of attempts to re<strong>for</strong>m public sector<br />

governance in many countries since the late 1990s. Both the OECD <strong>and</strong> the IMF have re-<br />

cently published Codes of Best Practice <strong>for</strong> Fiscal <strong>Transparency</strong> to guide countries towards<br />

* We would like to thank Christophe Chamley, Stefan Gerlach, Marco LiCalzi, Barton Lipman, Sigrid Röhrs <strong>for</strong> helpful comments on<br />

previous versions of the paper, <strong>and</strong> seminar participants at the Micro Management Brown Bag Seminar at Goethe University<br />

Frankfurt <strong>for</strong> helpful discussions. All remaining errors are our own.<br />

1 <strong>Center</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Financial</strong> Studies, Goethe University Frankfurt, House of Finance, Grüneburgplatz 1, 60323 Frankfurt, Germany;<br />

E-mail: moretti@ifk-cfs.de<br />

2 University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway NSW 2007, Australia, E-mail: toru.suzuki@uts.edu.au


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⎧<br />

⎪⎨<br />

μ(θ|a, z; σ) =<br />

⎪⎩<br />

¡ f(s,θ)<br />

θ ′ ∈Θσ(a) f(s,θ′ )dθ ′<br />

¡ fθ(θ)<br />

θ ′ ∈Θσ(a) fθ(θ ′ )dθ ′<br />

�� θ ∈ Θσ(a) �Ò� z = s<br />

�� θ ∈ Θσ(a) �Ò� z = ∅<br />

0 �� θ/∈ Θσ(a)<br />

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Ø��Ò<br />

r(a, z; α ∗ ,σ)=<br />

� I �� ¡ θ∈Θσ(a) v(α ∗ ,θ,ω)μ(θ|a, z; σ)dθ ≥ v(α ∗ ,θ0,ω0)<br />

C �� ¡ θ∈Θσ(a) v(α∗ ,θ,ω)μ(θ|a, z; σ)dθ < v(α ∗ ,θ0,ω0) .<br />

ÌÙÖÒ�Ò� ØÓ Ø�� �Ò ÙÑ��ÒØ × ÔÖÓ�Ð�Ñ �××ÙÑÔØ�ÓÒ �Ò� �ÑÔÐÝ Ø��Ø Û� �Ò �ÐÛ�Ý× �Ò�<br />

� ×Ô�Ò��Ò� Ð�Ú�Ð s(α ∗ ,σ) ∈ [0, ∞) ×Ù � Ø��Ø<br />

�<br />

r(Y,s; α ∗ ,σ)=I �� s ≤ s(α ∗ ,σ)<br />

r(Y,s; α ∗ ,σ)=C �� s>s(α ∗ ,σ) .<br />

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⎧<br />

⎪⎨<br />

F (s(α<br />

Qa(θ; σ) =<br />

⎪⎩<br />

∗ ,σ)) �� a = Y<br />

1 �� a = N �Ò� ¡ θ∈Θσ(N) v(α∗ ,θ,ω)μ(θ|N,∅; σ)dθ ≥ v(α∗ ,θ0,ω0)<br />

0 �� a = N �Ò� ¡ θ∈Θσ(N) v(α∗ ,θ,ω)μ(θ|N,∅; σ)dθ < v(α∗ ,θ0,ω0)<br />

Ì�Ù× ØÝÔ� θ �Ò ÙÑ��ÒØ × �ÜÔ� Ø�� Ô�ÝÓ� �ÖÓÑ a ��Ú�Ò σ �×<br />

�<br />

QY (θ; σ) − c �� a = Y<br />

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�<br />

ω0−ω<br />

ω0−ω+1−θ0 ,<br />

�<br />

ω−ω0 .<br />

ω−ω0+θ0<br />

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×�Ò � α ∗ ><br />

ω0−ω<br />

ω0−ω+1−θ0 , limˆ θ→1<br />

QY ( ˆ θ; σˆ θ )=1�Ò� limˆ θ→0<br />

QY ( ˆ θ; σˆ θ )=F (sp(α∗ ,σp)|0). Ì��Ò<br />

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θ ˆ v(α<br />

θ<br />

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�ÓÖ �ÒÝ ˆ θ.<br />

¢<br />

θ> ˆ v( ˜α<br />

θ<br />

∗ ,θ,ω)μ(θ|Y,s; σˆ θ )dθ ><br />

¢<br />

θ> ˆ v(α<br />

θ<br />

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Ì�Ù× Ø�� ÓÔØ�Ñ�Ð ÙØÓ� ×��Ò�Ð ��Ú�Ò σˆ θ �× s(α∗ ,σˆ θ ) <br />

F (s(α∗ ,σˆ θ )| ˆ θ) �ÓÖ �ÒÝ ˆ θ ∈ Θ Ì�Ù× ˆ θ ×Ù � Ø��Ø F (s( ˜α ∗ ,σˆ θ )| ˆ θ)=0�× �ÐÛ�Ý× ×Ñ�ÐÐ�Ö Ø��Ò ˆ θ ′<br />

×Ù � Ø��Ø F (s(α ∗ ,σˆ θ ′)| ˆ θ ′ )=0 É � �


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CFS Working Paper Series:<br />

No. Author(s) Title<br />

2012/18 Harold L. Cole<br />

Soojin Kim<br />

Dirk Krueger<br />

2012/17 Carmen Lee<br />

Roman Kräussl<br />

Leo Paas<br />

2012/16 Roman Kräussl<br />

Stefan Krause<br />

2012/15 Robert Wuebker<br />

William Schulze<br />

Roman Kräussl<br />

2012/14 Fabian Bornhorst<br />

Ashoka Mody<br />

2012/13 Adrian Alter<br />

Andreas Beyer<br />

2012/12 John F. Cogan<br />

John B. Taylor<br />

Volker Wiel<strong>and</strong><br />

Maik Wolters<br />

2012/11 Athanasios Orphanides<br />

Volker Wiel<strong>and</strong><br />

2012/10 Christopher Carroll<br />

Jiri Slacalek<br />

Martin Sommer<br />

2012/09 Marja Liisa Halko<br />

Markku Kaustia<br />

Analyzing the Effects of Insuring Health Risks<br />

The Effect of Anticipated <strong>and</strong> Experienced<br />

Regret <strong>and</strong> Pride on Investors’ Future Selling<br />

Decisions<br />

Has Europe Been Catching Up? An Industry<br />

Level Analysis of Venture Capital Success<br />

over 1985–2009<br />

Is Venture Capital a Local Business? A Test of<br />

the Proximity <strong>and</strong> Local Network Hypotheses<br />

Test of the German Resilience<br />

The Dynamics of Spillover Effects during the<br />

European Sovereign Debt Turmoil<br />

Fiscal Consolidation Strategy<br />

Complexity <strong>and</strong> Monetary Policy<br />

Dissecting Saving Dynamics: Measuring<br />

Wealth, Precautionary, <strong>and</strong> Credit Effects<br />

Are Risk Preferences Dynamic? Withinsubject<br />

Variation in Risk-taking as a Function<br />

of Background Music<br />

Copies of working papers can be downloaded at http://www.ifk-cfs.de

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