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Seeking Low-Cost Seismic Protection for Urban Masonry in an Unstable Terrain

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to housing in developing countries. The citizens of these countries often lack the financial means to sufficiently protect their homes against seismic actions. In accordance with the eleventh UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), steps need to be taken to protect these vulnerable populations from the looming possibility of a severe earthquake. Specifically, the geographic location of Peru designates it as an especially earthquake-prone country, and many of its citizens cannot afford seismic reinforcement for their homes. Middle-class, urban residents, such as those in Lima, Peru often reside in informally constructed confined masonry houses which, in the case of a severe earthquake, would likely suffer significant damage or even collapse. For this reason, the seismic protection market is increasingly narrowing its focus to low-cost solutions. This report summarizes the existing low-cost propositions and discusses to what extent they would provide a feasible option for the aforementioned target population in Peru. Finding that even these “low-cost” solutions are out of reach for most of the middle-class residents of Lima, this report makes an alternate proposition. Rocking isolation offers great potential as an innovative and economical seismic protection alternative, but it has yet to be implemented as low-cost housing reinforcement. This emerging system of seismic protection could fill a gap in the market as it may provide a sufficiently low-cost accessible manner of protecting confined masonry homes.

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to housing in developing countries. The citizens of these countries often lack the financial means to sufficiently protect their homes against seismic actions. In accordance with the eleventh UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), steps need to be taken to protect these vulnerable populations from the looming possibility of a severe earthquake. Specifically, the geographic location of Peru designates it as an especially earthquake-prone country, and many of its citizens cannot afford seismic reinforcement for their homes. Middle-class, urban residents, such as those in Lima, Peru often reside in informally constructed confined masonry houses which, in the case of a severe earthquake, would likely suffer significant damage or even collapse. For this reason, the seismic protection market is increasingly narrowing its focus to low-cost solutions.

This report summarizes the existing low-cost propositions and discusses to what extent they would provide a feasible option for the aforementioned target population in Peru. Finding that even these “low-cost” solutions are out of reach for most of the middle-class residents of Lima, this report makes an alternate proposition. Rocking isolation offers great potential as an innovative and economical seismic protection alternative, but it has yet to be implemented as low-cost housing reinforcement. This emerging system of seismic protection could fill a gap in the market as it may provide a sufficiently low-cost accessible manner of protecting confined masonry homes.

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1<br />

Undergraduate Research Analyst:<br />

Sam Borton<br />

Undergraduate Project M<strong>an</strong>ager:<br />

JuliaGrace Walker<br />

Graduate Advisor:<br />

Kostas Kalfas<br />

In-Country Partner:<br />

Dr. Marcial Blondet<br />

Global Development Lab Portfolio M<strong>an</strong>ager:<br />

Corrie A. Harris, M.A.<br />

Hunt Institute Affiliate:<br />

Dr. Nicos Makris<br />

Southern Methodist University<br />

Lyle School of Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Hunter <strong>an</strong>d Steph<strong>an</strong>ie Hunt Institute <strong>for</strong> Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d Hum<strong>an</strong>ity<br />

Global Development Lab<br />

Summer 2020<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM


2<br />

Table of Contents<br />

ABSTRACT ____________________________________________________________________ 4<br />

BACKGROUND ________________________________________________________________ 5<br />

I. FOCUS _______________________________________________________________________ 6<br />

II. PURPOSE _____________________________________________________________________ 8<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS ____________________________________________________________ 11<br />

I. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND ______________________________________________________ 11<br />

II. MARKET DESCRIPTION _________________________________________________________ 12<br />

III. MARKET TRENDS/STABILITY _____________________________________________________ 14<br />

IV. MARKET SEGMENTATION: <strong>Low</strong>-<strong>Cost</strong> Solutions ______________________________________ 15<br />

V. TARGET MARKET ______________________________________________________________ 17<br />

LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION ________________________________________________ 17<br />

COST COMPARISON ___________________________________________________________ 20<br />

LOW-COST ROCKING ISOLATION _________________________________________________ 22<br />

CURRENT ROCKING ISOLATION EXAMPLES ________________________________________ 23<br />

RECOMMENDATION __________________________________________________________ 24<br />

APPENDIX A: _________________________________________________________________ 25<br />

Susta<strong>in</strong>able Development Goals ______________________________________________________ 25<br />

TABLE OF FIGURES ____________________________________________________________ 26<br />

REFERENCES _________________________________________________________________ 27<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM


3<br />

"Part of our role as structural eng<strong>in</strong>eers is the design <strong>an</strong>d construction of structures that<br />

are af<strong>for</strong>dable to the local society <strong>an</strong>d meet acceptable per<strong>for</strong>m<strong>an</strong>ce levels at present<br />

<strong>an</strong>d the years to come without compromis<strong>in</strong>g the ability of future generations to use<br />

them, ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> them <strong>an</strong>d benefit from them."<br />

Nicos Makris, Ph.D., Hunt Institute Fellow<br />

Addy Family Centennial Professor <strong>in</strong> Civil Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g,<br />

Southern Methodist University<br />

Lyle School of Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Department of Civil <strong>an</strong>d Environmental Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM


4<br />

ABSTRACT<br />

Earthquakes pose a signific<strong>an</strong>t threat to hous<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries. The<br />

citizens of these countries often lack the f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial me<strong>an</strong>s to sufficiently protect their homes<br />

aga<strong>in</strong>st seismic actions. In accord<strong>an</strong>ce with the eleventh UN Susta<strong>in</strong>able Development<br />

Goal (SDG), steps need to be taken to protect these vulnerable populations from the<br />

loom<strong>in</strong>g possibility of a severe earthquake. Specifically, the geographic location of Peru<br />

designates it as <strong>an</strong> especially earthquake-prone country, <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>y of its citizens c<strong>an</strong>not<br />

af<strong>for</strong>d seismic re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cement <strong>for</strong> their homes. Middle-class, urb<strong>an</strong> residents, such as<br />

those <strong>in</strong> Lima, Peru often reside <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mally constructed conf<strong>in</strong>ed masonry houses<br />

which, <strong>in</strong> the case of a severe earthquake, would likely suffer signific<strong>an</strong>t damage or even<br />

collapse. For this reason, the seismic protection market is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly narrow<strong>in</strong>g its focus<br />

to low-cost solutions.<br />

This report summarizes the exist<strong>in</strong>g low-cost propositions <strong>an</strong>d discusses to what<br />

extent they would provide a feasible option <strong>for</strong> the a<strong>for</strong>ementioned target population <strong>in</strong><br />

Peru. F<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g that even these “low-cost” solutions are out of reach <strong>for</strong> most of the middleclass<br />

residents of Lima, this report makes <strong>an</strong> alternate proposition. Rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation<br />

offers great potential as <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>novative <strong>an</strong>d economical seismic protection alternative, but<br />

it has yet to be implemented as low-cost hous<strong>in</strong>g re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cement. This emerg<strong>in</strong>g system<br />

of seismic protection could fill a gap <strong>in</strong> the market as it may provide a sufficiently low-cost<br />

accessible m<strong>an</strong>ner of protect<strong>in</strong>g conf<strong>in</strong>ed masonry homes.<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM


5<br />

Figure 1: Compliments of Dr. Marcial Blondet’s research<br />

BACKGROUND<br />

Peru is located on the western edge of South America, one of the most seismically<br />

active regions of the world, where <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mal construction with conf<strong>in</strong>ed masonry is<br />

common. Dur<strong>in</strong>g strong earthquakes, these build<strong>in</strong>gs c<strong>an</strong> suffer signific<strong>an</strong>t damage.<br />

Base isolation with rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs or slid<strong>in</strong>g pads c<strong>an</strong> provide solutions to this problem.<br />

These techniques, however, are too expensive or of equivocal quality <strong>for</strong> the majority of<br />

the population. It is proposed that k<strong>in</strong>ematic rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation us<strong>in</strong>g rock<strong>in</strong>g columns<br />

could provide <strong>an</strong> af<strong>for</strong>dable solution <strong>for</strong> the seismic protection of masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs. This<br />

market <strong>an</strong>alysis is me<strong>an</strong>t to <strong>in</strong>vestigate the exist<strong>in</strong>g low-cost seismic protection market<br />

<strong>an</strong>d identify what is miss<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

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6<br />

The ultimate goal of this project is to identify viable solutions to be tested to<br />

m<strong>in</strong>imize structural damage from earthquakes <strong>in</strong> multi-story masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> Peru<br />

<strong>an</strong>d other parts of the world. A future technical approach will <strong>in</strong>volve the development of<br />

a f<strong>in</strong>ite element model of a typical masonry build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> Peru. It is hoped that this project<br />

will demonstrate that k<strong>in</strong>ematic isolation is a safe, <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>novative low-cost solution<br />

<strong>for</strong> the protection of masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries located <strong>in</strong> seismic<br />

regions. To learn more about this project <strong>an</strong>d its future phases, visit the Hunt Institute<br />

Digest.<br />

I. FOCUS<br />

The focus of this report will be to address the eleventh UN SDG which seeks to<br />

ensure that growth <strong>in</strong> hous<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d urb<strong>an</strong> development is safe, equitable, <strong>an</strong>d<br />

environmentally conscious. Peru’s shortcom<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> this area are made especially evident<br />

by severe earthquakes, as the lack of safe <strong>an</strong>d equitable urb<strong>an</strong> development creates a<br />

disparity <strong>in</strong> who is most affected. Peru is located <strong>in</strong> a seismic zone where the South<br />

Americ<strong>an</strong> Tectonic Plate moves toward the sea over the Nazca Tectonic Plate, creat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

a reverse fault mech<strong>an</strong>ism <strong>an</strong>d caus<strong>in</strong>g earthquakes as a result of the thrust from the<br />

subduction fault. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to Volc<strong>an</strong>o Discovery, Peru endured 81 earthquakes <strong>in</strong> May<br />

2020. [1] The chart <strong>in</strong> Figure 1 maps the number of earthquakes <strong>an</strong>d their severity over a<br />

n<strong>in</strong>ety-day sp<strong>an</strong>. Evidently, Peruvi<strong>an</strong>s live with earthquakes as a frequent threat.<br />

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7<br />

Figure 2: Frequency <strong>an</strong>d severity of earthquakes over a n<strong>in</strong>ety-day sp<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> Peru<br />

This report centers around UN Target 11.5 which states, “By 2030, signific<strong>an</strong>tly<br />

reduce the number of deaths <strong>an</strong>d the number of people affected <strong>an</strong>d subst<strong>an</strong>tially<br />

decrease the direct economic losses relative to global gross domestic product caused by<br />

disasters...with a focus on protect<strong>in</strong>g the poor <strong>an</strong>d people <strong>in</strong> vulnerable situations.” [2] It is<br />

beyond the scope of this <strong>an</strong>alysis to focus on seismic protection solutions <strong>for</strong> adobe<br />

shelter <strong>in</strong> rural areas, as hous<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> rural areas is <strong>an</strong> entirely different issue with a different<br />

solution set. Rather, this report will focus on seismic protection solutions <strong>for</strong> conf<strong>in</strong>ed<br />

masonry urb<strong>an</strong> hous<strong>in</strong>g. Develop<strong>in</strong>g countries are estimated to account <strong>for</strong> 95% of<br />

imm<strong>in</strong>ent urb<strong>an</strong> exp<strong>an</strong>sion, <strong>an</strong>d thus, disaster-protected <strong>in</strong>frastructure is vital <strong>in</strong> the urb<strong>an</strong><br />

areas of the world. [3]<br />

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8<br />

II.<br />

PURPOSE<br />

Peru is located on the western edge of South America, one of the most seismically<br />

active regions of the world. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to the Europe<strong>an</strong> Commission’s Index <strong>for</strong> Risk<br />

M<strong>an</strong>agement (INFORM), Peru r<strong>an</strong>ks 62 nd <strong>in</strong> the world <strong>for</strong> INFORM Risk, which comb<strong>in</strong>es<br />

metrics <strong>for</strong> hazard & exposure, vulnerability, <strong>an</strong>d lack of cop<strong>in</strong>g capacity. [4] When<br />

narrowed to earthquakes specifically, however, the situation appears much worse. Peru<br />

has the 9 th “most risk <strong>for</strong> a Level VIII earthquake” as assigned by the Modified Mercalli<br />

Intensity (MMI) Scale. [5] This magnitude, accord<strong>in</strong>g to the United States Geological<br />

Survey (USGS), corresponds to damage that is “slight <strong>in</strong> build<strong>in</strong>gs designed to be<br />

earthquake resist<strong>an</strong>t, but severe <strong>in</strong> some poorly built structures.” [4] The Global Facility <strong>for</strong><br />

Disaster Reduction <strong>an</strong>d Recovery (GFDRR) notes that <strong>in</strong> Peru, “more th<strong>an</strong> sixty-four<br />

percent of schools are highly vulnerable to earthquakes,” <strong>an</strong>d their study concluded that<br />

only eight percent of schools met seismic resist<strong>an</strong>ce st<strong>an</strong>dards, though that study was<br />

limited to the Lima metropolit<strong>an</strong> area. [6] A World B<strong>an</strong>k report r<strong>an</strong>ks Peru 20 th <strong>in</strong> economic<br />

risk from multiple hazards. [7] As c<strong>an</strong> be seen <strong>in</strong> Table 1, only 1.4% of Peru’s l<strong>an</strong>d area is<br />

at overlapp<strong>in</strong>g risk from floods, earthquakes, <strong>an</strong>d l<strong>an</strong>dslides, but that <strong>in</strong>cludes 30.4% of<br />

their population <strong>an</strong>d 43.9% of their GDP. [8] When isolated to earthquakes <strong>an</strong>d floods<br />

alone, those figures jump to 4% of l<strong>an</strong>d area, 41.5% of population, <strong>an</strong>d 53.7% of GDP at<br />

risk. [8]<br />

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9<br />

Table 1: Peru’s Economic Risk from Multiple Hazards<br />

Floods, earthquakes, &<br />

l<strong>an</strong>dslides<br />

Earthquakes & floods<br />

alone<br />

L<strong>an</strong>d 1.4% 4%<br />

Population 30.4% 41.5%<br />

GDP 43.9% 53.7%<br />

Table 1: Peru's Economic Risk from Multiple Hazards<br />

The 2007 earthquake on the central coast of Peru alone resulted <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> estimated<br />

$2,000,000,000 <strong>in</strong> damages. [8] While these figures have prompted <strong>in</strong>creased awareness,<br />

<strong>for</strong>eign aid, <strong>an</strong>d government action <strong>for</strong> better preparedness <strong>an</strong>d recovery, these<br />

responses are often focused on large population centers. From 1995 to 2007, the National<br />

In<strong>for</strong>mation System on Disaster Prevention <strong>an</strong>d M<strong>an</strong>agement (SINPAD) showed that the<br />

areas most affected by disasters were some of the most poverty-stricken as well.<br />

The 64.6% of Peruvi<strong>an</strong>s liv<strong>in</strong>g below the poverty l<strong>in</strong>e are especially vulnerable to<br />

natural disasters. [8] <strong>Masonry</strong> build<strong>in</strong>gs are common <strong>in</strong> Peru. Their design that is not based<br />

on codes <strong>an</strong>d st<strong>an</strong>dards <strong>an</strong>d their construction that is carried out without professional or<br />

certified eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g, render these build<strong>in</strong>gs with conf<strong>in</strong>ed masonry is common <strong>in</strong> Peru<br />

<strong>an</strong>d is much less safe th<strong>an</strong> a professionally designed <strong>an</strong>d constructed masonry home.<br />

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10<br />

Figure 3: Compliments of Dr. Marcial Blondet’s research<br />

A presentation from Dr. Marcial Blondet <strong>an</strong>d César Loaiza <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>med the follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />

two categorizes.<br />

Build<strong>in</strong>g per<strong>for</strong>m<strong>an</strong>ce dur<strong>in</strong>g earthquakes:<br />

1. completely operational<br />

2. operational<br />

3. survival<br />

4. nearly collapsed<br />

5. collapsed [9]<br />

Peruvi<strong>an</strong> earthquakes:<br />

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11<br />

1. frequent (approx. every 43 years)<br />

2. occasional (approx. every 72 years),<br />

3. rare (approx. every 475 years)<br />

4. very rare (approx. every 970 years) [9]<br />

Exam<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g multiple types of construction methods common <strong>in</strong> Peru, they found that<br />

while every build<strong>in</strong>g rema<strong>in</strong>ed at least “operational” follow<strong>in</strong>g a “frequent” earthquake, the<br />

picture soon became bleaker. Professionally-built conf<strong>in</strong>ed masonry, common <strong>for</strong> the<br />

upper class <strong>in</strong> urb<strong>an</strong> areas, is likely to st<strong>an</strong>d up to <strong>an</strong> earthquake unless it falls <strong>in</strong> the “very<br />

rare” category. [9] They noted that <strong>in</strong> the case of a “rare” or “very rare” earthquake, <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mal<br />

construction will likely take severe damage or even collapse completely. [9]<br />

M<strong>an</strong>y techniques <strong>for</strong> seismic protection of build<strong>in</strong>gs have been developed over the<br />

years, <strong>an</strong>d they have proven effective. These technologies, though, have focused on<br />

developed countries <strong>in</strong> seismically active areas such as Cali<strong>for</strong>nia, Jap<strong>an</strong>, <strong>an</strong>d New<br />

Zeal<strong>an</strong>d. Currently, due to the expense of materials <strong>an</strong>d lack of accessibility, only the<br />

most affluent populations <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries currently have access to these<br />

technologies. Consequently, there lies great signific<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>in</strong> the development of <strong>an</strong><br />

accessible, low-cost seismic protection system.<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS<br />

I. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND<br />

The damage caused to masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs from earthquakes typically arises<br />

because the walls, which are non-structural elements, are especially th<strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong>d brittle. The<br />

walls c<strong>an</strong>not h<strong>an</strong>dle the stress developed due to the shak<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>an</strong>d several cracks that are<br />

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BORTON, SAM


12<br />

typically <strong>for</strong>med <strong>in</strong> the wall corners, sometimes cont<strong>in</strong>ue until the walls ultimately<br />

collapse. [10] For this reason, seismic protection mech<strong>an</strong>isms are sorely needed <strong>in</strong> areas<br />

where design that is not <strong>in</strong> accord<strong>an</strong>ce with codes <strong>an</strong>d st<strong>an</strong>dards is common. One<br />

frequently discussed technique <strong>for</strong> protect<strong>in</strong>g masonry structures is base isolation, which<br />

describes a system that creates separation between the structure <strong>an</strong>d the foundation.<br />

This often <strong>in</strong>cludes the use of rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>an</strong>d slid<strong>in</strong>g pads to absorb the k<strong>in</strong>etic<br />

energy of the earthquake, effectively reduc<strong>in</strong>g the extent to which build<strong>in</strong>gs are damaged<br />

due to earthquakes. <strong>Seismic</strong> protection expert James Kelly writes that “time <strong>an</strong>d time<br />

aga<strong>in</strong>, we have seen base-isolated build<strong>in</strong>gs emerge from <strong>an</strong> earthquake relatively<br />

unscathed compared with their neighbors” <strong>an</strong>d “rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs could br<strong>in</strong>g much needed<br />

safety <strong>an</strong>d security to build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> earthquake-prone develop<strong>in</strong>g countries, prevent<strong>in</strong>g<br />

costly property damage <strong>an</strong>d sav<strong>in</strong>g countless lives.” [11] As noted, though, these<br />

mech<strong>an</strong>isms need to have <strong>an</strong> emphasis on be<strong>in</strong>g low-cost <strong>an</strong>d accessible to urb<strong>an</strong><br />

populations <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries.<br />

II.<br />

MARKET DESCRIPTION<br />

Some major players <strong>in</strong> the large-scale seismic re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cement market <strong>in</strong>clude<br />

Simpson Strong-Tie Comp<strong>an</strong>y Inc., Hyundai Steel Comp<strong>an</strong>y, West Fraser Timber Co.<br />

Ltd., AreclorMittal, Toray Industries, Inc., LafargeHolcim Ltd., Tata Steel Limited, <strong>an</strong>d<br />

BASF SE. [12] These comp<strong>an</strong>ies are currently strengthen<strong>in</strong>g their market position by<br />

<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g their research <strong>an</strong>d development activities to produce technological<br />

adv<strong>an</strong>cements. The target audience <strong>for</strong> most of these corporations are construction<br />

comp<strong>an</strong>ies <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustrialized countries at high-risk <strong>for</strong> earthquakes. This <strong>in</strong>cludes<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

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13<br />

government-contracted comp<strong>an</strong>ies work<strong>in</strong>g on public <strong>in</strong>frastructure <strong>an</strong>d comp<strong>an</strong>ies<br />

<strong>in</strong>terested <strong>in</strong> construct<strong>in</strong>g seismically protected build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> the private sector.<br />

These corporations <strong>an</strong>d others are work<strong>in</strong>g on seismic isolation primarily <strong>in</strong> urb<strong>an</strong><br />

areas of developed countries, me<strong>an</strong><strong>in</strong>g that these are rather large-scale, expensive<br />

projects. In a Rob<strong>in</strong>son <strong>Seismic</strong> Limited seismic re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cement project, they used 135<br />

rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>an</strong>d 132 slider bear<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>for</strong> the Well<strong>in</strong>gton Regional Hospital <strong>in</strong><br />

Australia. [13] The seismic isolation alone cost about $110 per square meter, total<strong>in</strong>g three<br />

percent of the $165 million construction cost. In <strong>an</strong>other project, they say that seismic<br />

isolation was closer to $140 per square meter, but aga<strong>in</strong> close to three percent of the total<br />

cost. [13] The addition of seismic base isolation technology to these construction projects<br />

helps to ensure safety of the occup<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d contents of the build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> case of <strong>an</strong><br />

earthquake, <strong>an</strong>d as <strong>an</strong> added benefit, the bear<strong>in</strong>gs typically don’t need to be replaced<br />

follow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong> earthquake. Another possible benefit is a discount on <strong>in</strong>sur<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>for</strong> build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

that are seismically isolated. In Jap<strong>an</strong>, owners of base-isolated apartment build<strong>in</strong>gs c<strong>an</strong><br />

expect a 30% discount on their <strong>in</strong>sur<strong>an</strong>ce because of the safety enh<strong>an</strong>cement provided<br />

by the technology. [13] These <strong>in</strong>centives provide a way to enh<strong>an</strong>ce safety <strong>in</strong> a city, but they<br />

rely on build<strong>in</strong>g owners hav<strong>in</strong>g the resources to do so. When it comes to large downtown<br />

build<strong>in</strong>gs, <strong>an</strong> employee from the eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g firm Simpson Gumpertz & Heger described<br />

the decision to use base isolation as “com[<strong>in</strong>g] down to judg<strong>in</strong>g the economic welfare of<br />

the <strong>in</strong>dividual property owner aga<strong>in</strong>st that of society as a whole” <strong>an</strong>d adds that “Most<br />

developers believe it is a low enough risk to warr<strong>an</strong>t tak<strong>in</strong>g a ch<strong>an</strong>ce.” [14] In the US, a<br />

base isolation system costs roughly $30 to $50 per square foot (about $100 to $160 per<br />

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square meter), or between $600,000 to $1 million <strong>for</strong> a typical five-story build<strong>in</strong>g, add<strong>in</strong>g<br />

about five to ten percent of the total construction cost. [14]<br />

The costs <strong>for</strong> add<strong>in</strong>g a base isolation system to the construction projects of large<br />

eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g firms that build <strong>in</strong> urb<strong>an</strong> areas of developed countries do not pose a barrier.<br />

When extrapolated to communities <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries, the situation looks much<br />

different. Not only would over $100 per square meter be too signific<strong>an</strong>t of a cost, but<br />

products like rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>an</strong>d slid<strong>in</strong>g pads are not readily accessible <strong>in</strong> these<br />

communities.<br />

III.<br />

MARKET TRENDS/STABILITY<br />

Focus<strong>in</strong>g specifically on low cost methods of seismic protection, one foundational<br />

trend is the rise <strong>in</strong> awareness of this <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> general. Not until the late 20 th century did<br />

base isolation become popular, <strong>an</strong>d that trend unsurpris<strong>in</strong>gly beg<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> developed yet<br />

seismically vulnerable locations like Jap<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d Cali<strong>for</strong>nia. In recent years, research has<br />

begun address<strong>in</strong>g the barriers of cost <strong>an</strong>d access that prevent seismic protection from<br />

reach<strong>in</strong>g similarly vulnerable communities <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries. A few different factors<br />

facilitated this shift <strong>in</strong>to the low-cost arena. For one, as <strong>in</strong>ternational media coverage has<br />

become more prevalent, awareness of <strong>in</strong>ternational natural disasters has <strong>in</strong>creased, like<br />

earthquakes of the past fifteen years <strong>in</strong> Haiti, Nepal, Ecuador, Chile, <strong>an</strong>d Indonesia. With<br />

greater awareness comes more <strong>for</strong>eign aid <strong>an</strong>d attention from the scientific research<br />

community. Along with greater media attention, there is also greater physical accessibility<br />

to some of these develop<strong>in</strong>g areas. Improv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>frastructure c<strong>an</strong> allow <strong>for</strong> easier <strong>an</strong>d less<br />

costly tr<strong>an</strong>sport of materials <strong>an</strong>d eng<strong>in</strong>eers to seismically vulnerable communities. Policy<br />

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15<br />

ch<strong>an</strong>ges are <strong>an</strong>other factor <strong>in</strong>fluenc<strong>in</strong>g the low-cost seismic protection market. We have<br />

seen national <strong>an</strong>d local governments update build<strong>in</strong>g codes to require structures to be<br />

better protected from earthquakes. For low-<strong>in</strong>come residents of these jurisdictions,<br />

seismic re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cement is unlikely to be f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cially accessible. Policy ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>an</strong>d<br />

educational campaigns, though, do not ch<strong>an</strong>ge the reality of cost as a barrier.<br />

Other th<strong>an</strong> both supply <strong>an</strong>d dem<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>for</strong> general low-cost methods, other<br />

trends are emerg<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> the low-cost seismic protection market. M<strong>an</strong>y researchers<br />

have emphasized susta<strong>in</strong>ability <strong>in</strong> their designs <strong>for</strong> base isolation. This <strong>in</strong>cludes utiliz<strong>in</strong>g<br />

reused materials as the isolat<strong>in</strong>g layer between the foundation <strong>an</strong>d build<strong>in</strong>g. Others have<br />

prioritized ease of access, mak<strong>in</strong>g the case that no matter how <strong>in</strong>expensive the materials,<br />

tr<strong>an</strong>sportation from a non-local m<strong>an</strong>ufacturer c<strong>an</strong> signific<strong>an</strong>tly raise the price. These<br />

researchers propose solutions that use very basic or locally-produced materials <strong>in</strong> their<br />

systems of seismic protection.<br />

IV.<br />

MARKET SEGMENTATION: <strong>Low</strong>-<strong>Cost</strong> Solutions<br />

<strong>Low</strong> cost, seismically protective methods of construction are needed across the<br />

develop<strong>in</strong>g world <strong>in</strong> earthquake-prone areas. Residents of these areas often lack the<br />

f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial resources required <strong>for</strong> hous<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> accord<strong>an</strong>ce with build<strong>in</strong>g codes, <strong>an</strong>d even with<br />

sufficient funds, eng<strong>in</strong>eers <strong>an</strong>d materials c<strong>an</strong> be difficult to access. One study found that<br />

<strong>in</strong> addition to these barriers, residents of unstable masonry homes are often resist<strong>an</strong>t to<br />

ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g their traditional build<strong>in</strong>g methods <strong>for</strong> cultural reasons. [15] Also, due to the<br />

<strong>in</strong>frequent nature of earthquakes, m<strong>an</strong>y are either unaware of the potential d<strong>an</strong>gers or<br />

reason that <strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g their scarce resources to prevent only the possibility of <strong>an</strong><br />

earthquake is simply not worth it. A study <strong>in</strong> the H<strong>an</strong>dbook on Culture <strong>an</strong>d <strong>Urb<strong>an</strong></strong> Disaster<br />

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found that people’s “memories of previous disasters...<strong>in</strong>fluence their <strong>in</strong>terpretation of risk<br />

<strong>an</strong>d their response to future disaster.” [16] An example of this would be if consistent<br />

earthquakes are not severe, the conclusion would be there is no need <strong>for</strong> seismic<br />

protection. This is problematic due to the fact that severe earthquakes do not happen very<br />

often. If one hasn't happened <strong>in</strong> a person's lifetime, they are less likely to underst<strong>an</strong>d the<br />

risks <strong>an</strong>d there<strong>for</strong>e less likely to take action.<br />

It is estimated that 20% of the world’s population lacks adequate hous<strong>in</strong>g. [17] The<br />

poverty rate <strong>in</strong> Peru is 21.7%, equat<strong>in</strong>g to the majority of residents liv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> masonry<br />

build<strong>in</strong>gs that have not been designed <strong>in</strong> accord<strong>an</strong>ce with the build<strong>in</strong>g codes <strong>an</strong>d<br />

st<strong>an</strong>dards. [18] Unre<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced masonry hous<strong>in</strong>g, though likely to qualify as “adequate<br />

hous<strong>in</strong>g,” still poses signific<strong>an</strong>t d<strong>an</strong>gers to its occup<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>in</strong> the case of a strong<br />

earthquake. Consider<strong>in</strong>g Peru’s geographical location, the question is not if but when the<br />

next big earthquake will strike.<br />

In Nepal, <strong>for</strong> example, it is estimated that sixty percent of build<strong>in</strong>gs fit this<br />

description. [19] The prevalence of unre<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced masonry construction was a contribut<strong>in</strong>g<br />

factor to the signific<strong>an</strong>t amount of damage caused by the massive Nepal earthquake <strong>in</strong><br />

2015. [20] One study on the reconstruction ef<strong>for</strong>ts noted that although “low-strength<br />

masonry” construction failed to withst<strong>an</strong>d the earthquake, it will cont<strong>in</strong>ue as a primary<br />

build<strong>in</strong>g technique due to <strong>in</strong>sufficient funds <strong>an</strong>d lack of access to more resilient materials<br />

<strong>an</strong>d adequate re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cement technology. [20] The situation <strong>in</strong> Nepal is just one example. In<br />

Haiti, a primary hazard <strong>in</strong> the 2010 earthquake was also the poorly-constructed <strong>in</strong>filled<br />

masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs. A study of the damage described that the earthquake “revealed the<br />

vulnerability of unre<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced masonry.” [21] In the United States, too, cities are tak<strong>in</strong>g action<br />

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to prevent the tragedies due to earthquakes associated with unre<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced masonry <strong>in</strong><br />

structures. The cities of Portl<strong>an</strong>d, OR <strong>an</strong>d Seattle, WA have both released proposals <strong>in</strong><br />

recent years to require retrofitt<strong>in</strong>g of all unre<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs with seismic<br />

[22, 23]<br />

re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cements.<br />

This is clearly not <strong>an</strong> issue that is conf<strong>in</strong>ed to a s<strong>in</strong>gle country or community; it is<br />

a global one. Import<strong>an</strong>tly, while it may be feasible <strong>in</strong> developed countries to simply require<br />

build<strong>in</strong>g upgrades to prevent damage from earthquakes, this would be more difficult to<br />

m<strong>an</strong>date <strong>in</strong> a less developed country. As was previously expla<strong>in</strong>ed, Peru is especially<br />

vulnerable to earthquakes due to its geographic position <strong>an</strong>d development status. In<br />

urb<strong>an</strong> areas, residents are likely to live <strong>in</strong> conf<strong>in</strong>ed masonry houses. Despite the<br />

perceived upgrade of this type of construction, risk persists due to about 80% of these<br />

homes be<strong>in</strong>g built slowly over time, often not follow<strong>in</strong>g build<strong>in</strong>g codes. Homeowners are<br />

generally aware of the risks but lack the resources to mitigate them.<br />

V. TARGET MARKET<br />

Due to the COVID-19, this section is <strong>in</strong>complete as the global p<strong>an</strong>demic has delayed<br />

the selection of <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational build<strong>in</strong>g site. Our <strong>in</strong>-country partners <strong>in</strong> Lima, Peru<br />

cont<strong>in</strong>ue to advise <strong>an</strong>d collaborate with us <strong>in</strong> this work. It is our goal to address this<br />

section when safety permits.<br />

LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

The exposure from <strong>in</strong>ternational media coverage of earthquakes among other<br />

factors has led to more research of low-cost methods <strong>for</strong> seismic protection. Researchers<br />

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have proposed several different materials as me<strong>an</strong>s <strong>for</strong> creat<strong>in</strong>g a system of base<br />

isolation accessible even to low-<strong>in</strong>come residents of develop<strong>in</strong>g countries.<br />

Most exist<strong>in</strong>g research focuses on replac<strong>in</strong>g traditionally expensive materials with<br />

low-cost alternatives. Traditional rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs are “relatively large, heavy, <strong>an</strong>d<br />

expensive.” [24] These bear<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong>clude alternat<strong>in</strong>g rubber layers with lam<strong>in</strong>ated steel shim<br />

plates <strong>in</strong> between, connected via vulc<strong>an</strong>ization. There are several categories of traditional<br />

bear<strong>in</strong>gs used <strong>in</strong> base isolation—lead-rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs (LRB), high-damp<strong>in</strong>g natural<br />

rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs (HDNR), friction pendulum bear<strong>in</strong>gs, <strong>an</strong>d slider bear<strong>in</strong>gs—though the<br />

HDNR bear<strong>in</strong>gs with steel shims are the most commonly used variety. [25] Most low-cost<br />

methods of base isolation <strong>in</strong>clude a replacement <strong>for</strong> both the steel <strong>an</strong>d rubber, often<br />

propos<strong>in</strong>g a type of fiber-re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced elastomeric isolator (FREI).<br />

Some methods have focused on susta<strong>in</strong>ability, exam<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g the potential use of<br />

recycled materials. Turer <strong>an</strong>d Özden exam<strong>in</strong>ed the potential use of scrap tire pads as<br />

alternative rubber <strong>in</strong> base isolation. [26] While the technique has not been implemented yet,<br />

they exam<strong>in</strong>ed a hypothetical case implement<strong>in</strong>g the scrap tire pads <strong>for</strong> a s<strong>in</strong>gle-story<br />

masonry house <strong>an</strong>d found that they would successfully reduce the susceptibility of the<br />

house to damage <strong>in</strong> a strong earthquake. [26] In addition, they specifically noted that “Scrap<br />

Tire Pads (STP) presents adv<strong>an</strong>tages such as low-cost technology <strong>an</strong>d no cost pad<br />

production…<strong>an</strong>d environmental issues by recycl<strong>in</strong>g scrap tires.” [26] Calabrese, et al.<br />

similarly proposed Recycled Rubber Fiber Re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced Bear<strong>in</strong>gs (RR-FRBs). [27] Another<br />

environmentally-friendly system, developed by Ahmad, Gh<strong>an</strong>i, <strong>an</strong>d Adil, uses demolished<br />

waste as the separation between the build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d the foundation. [28] Us<strong>in</strong>g a shak<strong>in</strong>g<br />

table, they determ<strong>in</strong>ed that the slid<strong>in</strong>g of the structure dissipated over 70% of the shak<strong>in</strong>g<br />

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energy, <strong>an</strong>d no cracks were observed <strong>in</strong> their trial structure. [28] This is <strong>an</strong>other example<br />

of a base isolation system provid<strong>in</strong>g seismic protection with <strong>an</strong> added benefit of<br />

susta<strong>in</strong>ability.<br />

Recogniz<strong>in</strong>g the f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial <strong>in</strong>accessibility of traditional base isolation systems, other<br />

projects have explicitly focused on the cost reduction. Some of these <strong>in</strong>clude costeffective<br />

replacements <strong>for</strong> steel shims often used <strong>in</strong> rubber bear<strong>in</strong>gs. T<strong>an</strong>, et al.<br />

suggested <strong>an</strong> “unsaturated polyester fiber re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>cement.” [24] Other studies proposed a<br />

variety of fibers as steel substitutes, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g fiberglass, woven fabric, polyester, <strong>an</strong>d<br />

nylon. Tsiavos et al. did a study us<strong>in</strong>g a s<strong>an</strong>d-rubber layer <strong>in</strong> base isolation. [29] The project<br />

emphasized the import<strong>an</strong>ce of local sourc<strong>in</strong>g of materials, not<strong>in</strong>g that f<strong>in</strong>e s<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d<br />

recycled tires c<strong>an</strong> be locally acquired. [29] M<strong>in</strong>imiz<strong>in</strong>g shipp<strong>in</strong>g costs of materials is <strong>an</strong>other<br />

mech<strong>an</strong>ism to decrease costs associated with the f<strong>in</strong>al product. Their experiment was<br />

conducted <strong>in</strong> association with the SAFER Schools <strong>for</strong> Nepal project. Another project,<br />

conducted by N<strong>an</strong>da, Shrikh<strong>an</strong>de, <strong>an</strong>d Agarwal, proposed marble-marble <strong>an</strong>d marblegeosynthetic<br />

<strong>in</strong>terfaces to improve seismic response of masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> the<br />

Himalay<strong>an</strong> regions of India. [30]<br />

While little <strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation exists on the potential implementation of these strategies,<br />

one example is the SAFER project <strong>for</strong> seismic safety of school build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> Nepal. This<br />

project recognized the widespread destruction caused by the 2015 Nepal earthquake <strong>an</strong>d<br />

set out to prevent similar effects from future earthquakes. They noted that base isolation<br />

is “prohibitively expensive <strong>for</strong> m<strong>an</strong>y regions,” <strong>an</strong>d they there<strong>for</strong>e decided to “<strong>in</strong>vestigate<br />

low-cost, culturally acceptable, locally-sourced ways of co-produc<strong>in</strong>g a similar system.” [31]<br />

The SAFER <strong>in</strong>itiative proposed technology like a 3D topographic mapp<strong>in</strong>g system <strong>an</strong>d a<br />

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mobile application <strong>for</strong> pre- <strong>an</strong>d post-earthquake structural <strong>in</strong>spections. After identify<strong>in</strong>g<br />

the location <strong>an</strong>d extent of earthquake damage of schools across Nepal, they pl<strong>an</strong>ned to<br />

conduct test<strong>in</strong>g of several retrofitt<strong>in</strong>g techniques with a shak<strong>in</strong>g table. F<strong>in</strong>ally, these<br />

techniques would be matched with the correspond<strong>in</strong>g level of damage they would best<br />

apply to, <strong>an</strong>d community workshops would be held to tra<strong>in</strong> people <strong>in</strong> the affected<br />

communities on how to implement the repair techniques. This project received a nearly<br />

$2,000,000 gr<strong>an</strong>t from the Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d Physical Sciences Research Council<br />

(EPSRC) <strong>in</strong> the UK, with which they cont<strong>in</strong>ue to <strong>in</strong>vestigate both the retrofitt<strong>in</strong>g of schools<br />

<strong>in</strong> Nepal <strong>an</strong>d a mobile application to assess the structures.<br />

Another model of implementation is that of the Build Ch<strong>an</strong>ge org<strong>an</strong>ization, who<br />

org<strong>an</strong>izes homeowner-driven reconstruction ef<strong>for</strong>ts <strong>in</strong> areas affected by earthquakes.<br />

While not focus<strong>in</strong>g on a specific method of low-cost seismic protection, Build Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />

uniquely places control <strong>an</strong>d oversight <strong>in</strong> the h<strong>an</strong>ds of homeowners to ensure their trust <strong>in</strong><br />

the reconstruction process. Build Ch<strong>an</strong>ge provides this justification <strong>for</strong> their work:<br />

“Earthquakes disproportionately affect poor people <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g countries who have no<br />

safety net, no sav<strong>in</strong>gs or <strong>in</strong>sur<strong>an</strong>ce, <strong>an</strong>d no well-off relatives to take them <strong>in</strong>.” [32] Build<br />

Ch<strong>an</strong>ge is <strong>an</strong> example of a successful partnership with a community that ensures long<br />

term ch<strong>an</strong>ge by us<strong>in</strong>g a bottom-up approach. This is the type of strategy required <strong>for</strong><br />

successful implementation of low-cost seismic protection.<br />

COST COMPARISON<br />

Among the various propositions <strong>in</strong> the low-cost seismic protection space, little<br />

<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>mation exists on the cost of implementation. Included <strong>in</strong> N<strong>an</strong>da, Shrikh<strong>an</strong>de, <strong>an</strong>d<br />

Agarwal’s report were costs of their proposed systems, projected at 6 USD per meter <strong>an</strong>d<br />

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5 USD per meter run <strong>for</strong> the marble-marble <strong>an</strong>d marble-geosynthetic, respectively. [30]<br />

Calabrese, et al. describe Recycled Rubber Fiber Re<strong>in</strong><strong>for</strong>ced Bear<strong>in</strong>gs (RR-FRBs) that<br />

c<strong>an</strong> be produced <strong>for</strong> about one hundred euros per bear<strong>in</strong>g while also not<strong>in</strong>g that costs <strong>for</strong><br />

traditional bear<strong>in</strong>gs c<strong>an</strong> be <strong>in</strong> the thous<strong>an</strong>ds. [27] No matter the m<strong>in</strong>imal cost of the raw<br />

materials, recycled tires accomp<strong>an</strong>ied by a type of fiber, the m<strong>an</strong>ufactur<strong>in</strong>g process<br />

required with this technique causes a signific<strong>an</strong>t cost. On the other h<strong>an</strong>d, some authors<br />

describe their seismic protection system as zero cost. While the cost of materials may be<br />

zero, especially <strong>in</strong> the case of recycled tires <strong>an</strong>d demolished waste, there is presumably<br />

a cost of tr<strong>an</strong>sportation. Tr<strong>an</strong>sportation is a signific<strong>an</strong>t issue affect<strong>in</strong>g the cost of exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />

low-cost solutions. These added costs of tr<strong>an</strong>sportation <strong>an</strong>d import fees make these<br />

solutions too expensive to be considered. In addition, despite a surplus of these materials<br />

exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> some areas of the world, that may not be the case <strong>in</strong> less <strong>in</strong>dustrialized<br />

locations.<br />

For implementation <strong>in</strong> Lima, along with other urb<strong>an</strong> areas of develop<strong>in</strong>g countries,<br />

m<strong>an</strong>y of these proposed solutions fall short of the accessibility required to reach middle<br />

class urb<strong>an</strong> residents. Any m<strong>an</strong>ufactured bear<strong>in</strong>g, despite its attempts at low costs of<br />

materials, will <strong>in</strong>cur too signific<strong>an</strong>t of production <strong>an</strong>d tr<strong>an</strong>sportation costs. Materials like<br />

marble or geosynthetic mesh, as proposed <strong>in</strong> some solutions, will also be difficult <strong>for</strong> these<br />

populations to acquire. In addition, m<strong>an</strong>y of the exist<strong>in</strong>g seismic protection propositions<br />

focus on s<strong>in</strong>gle-story build<strong>in</strong>gs, <strong>an</strong>d a signific<strong>an</strong>t proportion of homes <strong>in</strong> Lima are multistory.<br />

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LOW-COST ROCKING ISOLATION<br />

In search of a more cost-effective, accessible, <strong>an</strong>d safe method of seismic<br />

protection, one emerg<strong>in</strong>g technology appears suitable. Rock<strong>in</strong>g base isolation is a <strong>for</strong>m<br />

of k<strong>in</strong>ematic base isolation that utilizes rock<strong>in</strong>g columns to protect the structure <strong>in</strong> case of<br />

a seismic event. While little implementation of this technique has taken place, it fills a gap<br />

<strong>in</strong> the exist<strong>in</strong>g methods <strong>an</strong>d there<strong>for</strong>e merits further exploration such as a demonstration<br />

project. Aside from the possible need <strong>for</strong> <strong>an</strong> extra base slab, rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation does not<br />

require <strong>an</strong>y especially unique materials, <strong>an</strong>d there<strong>for</strong>e the costs associated with acquir<strong>in</strong>g<br />

the materials could be lower th<strong>an</strong> other techniques. The most signific<strong>an</strong>t cost would likely<br />

be the expertise of <strong>an</strong> eng<strong>in</strong>eer to <strong>in</strong>stall the system properly. This system is <strong>an</strong>ticipated<br />

to be suitable <strong>for</strong> multi-story build<strong>in</strong>gs, while m<strong>an</strong>y other low-cost methods are conf<strong>in</strong>ed<br />

to s<strong>in</strong>gle-story homes. Rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation was previously implemented <strong>for</strong> use <strong>in</strong> bridges,<br />

<strong>an</strong>d that is the focus of most exist<strong>in</strong>g research on the topic. One recent study found that<br />

“both structural rock<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d foundation rock<strong>in</strong>g provide effective base isolation” <strong>for</strong><br />

build<strong>in</strong>gs. [33] As with most seismic protection methods, there are those that focus on costm<strong>in</strong>imization<br />

<strong>an</strong>d those that do not, so a signific<strong>an</strong>t gap <strong>in</strong> research is the exploration of<br />

low cost rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation <strong>for</strong> conf<strong>in</strong>ed masonry build<strong>in</strong>gs, such as those common <strong>in</strong> urb<strong>an</strong><br />

areas of Peru.<br />

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23<br />

CURRENT ROCKING ISOLATION EXAMPLES<br />

Table 2: Inst<strong>an</strong>ces of Rock<strong>in</strong>g Isolation<br />

Location Application Effectiveness <strong>Cost</strong><br />

New Zeal<strong>an</strong>d<br />

Wigram Magdala<br />

Bridge<br />

Implemented <strong>an</strong>d<br />

Built<br />

30 million NZD<br />

(~19.6 million USD)<br />

New Zeal<strong>an</strong>d<br />

South R<strong>an</strong>gitikei<br />

Bridge<br />

Implemented <strong>an</strong>d<br />

Built<br />

not available<br />

Chile<br />

VRIS (Vertical<br />

Rock<strong>in</strong>g Isolation<br />

System)<br />

Not Implemented<br />

N/A<br />

V<strong>an</strong>couver, C<strong>an</strong>ada Lions’ Gate Bridge<br />

Table 2: Inst<strong>an</strong>ces of Rock<strong>in</strong>g Isolation<br />

Implemented <strong>an</strong>d<br />

Built<br />

Retrofitt<strong>in</strong>g cost<br />

was 4.2 million<br />

CAD (~3.1 million<br />

USD)<br />

Table 2 conta<strong>in</strong>s a few examples of rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation systems. The Wigram<br />

Magdala L<strong>in</strong>k Bridge, completed <strong>in</strong> 2016, utilizes Dissipative Controlled Rock<strong>in</strong>g<br />

(DCR). [34] It was the first bridge <strong>in</strong> the world to <strong>in</strong>clude DCR, <strong>an</strong>d the total construction<br />

cost was about 19.6 million USD. [35] Both the South R<strong>an</strong>gitikei Bridge <strong>in</strong> New Zeal<strong>an</strong>d<br />

<strong>an</strong>d the Lions’ Gate Bridge <strong>in</strong> V<strong>an</strong>couver conta<strong>in</strong> steel yield<strong>in</strong>g devices to contribute to a<br />

controlled rock<strong>in</strong>g system. [36] The Lions’ Gate Bridge, orig<strong>in</strong>ally completed <strong>in</strong> 2000, was<br />

retrofitted <strong>in</strong> 2014 <strong>for</strong> about 3.1 million USD. [37] A more theoretical example is the Vertical<br />

Rock<strong>in</strong>g Isolation System (VRIS) developed <strong>in</strong> Chile. VRIS is supposed to be a “costeffective<br />

alternative” to traditional base isolation <strong>an</strong>d would be used <strong>for</strong> protect<strong>in</strong>g storage<br />

t<strong>an</strong>ks or mach<strong>in</strong>ery. [38] Of course, most of the examples here are not <strong>in</strong> the low-cost<br />

market, but rather signific<strong>an</strong>t <strong>in</strong>dustrial projects.<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM


24<br />

RECOMMENDATION<br />

There is a sense of urgency to f<strong>in</strong>d <strong>an</strong> effective low-cost seismic protection<br />

solution, as the safety of communities <strong>in</strong> seismically active areas is at stake. Our f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

reveal a signific<strong>an</strong>t gap <strong>in</strong> the seismic protection market <strong>an</strong>d the little-explored area of<br />

rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation has tremendous potential to bridge the gap with implementation <strong>for</strong> lowcost<br />

multi-story urb<strong>an</strong> hous<strong>in</strong>g. In order to further <strong>in</strong>vestigate low-cost rock<strong>in</strong>g isolation,<br />

more research is required. This will <strong>in</strong>volve develop<strong>in</strong>g a f<strong>in</strong>ite element model <strong>an</strong>d, later<br />

on, implement<strong>in</strong>g the system on a scaled-down structure.<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM


25<br />

APPENDIX A:<br />

Susta<strong>in</strong>able Development Goals<br />

In September 2015, the United Nations developed a comprehensive agenda of<br />

Susta<strong>in</strong>able Development Goals to be achieved by 2030. These goals demonstrated a<br />

worldwide commitment to seventeen goals that address the newest challenges fac<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly global society. These goals are, <strong>in</strong> short: 1) to eradicate extreme poverty <strong>an</strong>d<br />

ensure equal rights to basic services; 2) to ensure year-round access <strong>for</strong> everyone to<br />

safe, nutritious, <strong>an</strong>d sufficient food; 3) to achieve universal access to quality health care<br />

services; 4) to reach universal access to quality primary <strong>an</strong>d secondary education while<br />

elim<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g gender disparities; 5) to promote policies support<strong>in</strong>g gender equality; 6) to<br />

ensure complete access to safe <strong>an</strong>d af<strong>for</strong>dable dr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g water <strong>for</strong> all; 7) to make available<br />

af<strong>for</strong>dable, reliable, <strong>an</strong>d modern energy services to everyone; 8) to achieve susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />

economic growth, especially <strong>in</strong> Least Developed Countries (LDCs); 9) to facilitate<br />

susta<strong>in</strong>able <strong>in</strong>dustrialization, <strong>in</strong>novation, <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>frastructure development; 10) to reduce<br />

<strong>in</strong>come <strong>in</strong>equality <strong>an</strong>d enh<strong>an</strong>ce representation of develop<strong>in</strong>g countries; 11) to promote<br />

universal access to susta<strong>in</strong>able, safe, <strong>an</strong>d af<strong>for</strong>dable hous<strong>in</strong>g; 12) to subst<strong>an</strong>tially reduce<br />

the generation of waste; 13) to prioritize <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>corporate climate-friendly measures <strong>in</strong><br />

policymak<strong>in</strong>g; 14) to combat the pollution <strong>an</strong>d acidification of the world’s bodies of water;<br />

15) to address desertification, poach<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>an</strong>d other threats to life on l<strong>an</strong>d; 16) to promote<br />

peace, justice, <strong>an</strong>d strong <strong>in</strong>stitutions with<strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong>d among countries; 17) <strong>an</strong>d to promote<br />

partnerships contribut<strong>in</strong>g to susta<strong>in</strong>able development. [2]<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM


26<br />

TABLE OF FIGURES<br />

Figure 1: Compliments of Dr. Marcial Blondet’s research ____________________________________________ 5<br />

Figure 2: Frequency <strong>an</strong>d severity of earthquakes over a n<strong>in</strong>ety-day sp<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> Peru ____________________ 7<br />

Figure 3: Compliments of Dr. Marcial Blondet’s research ___________________________________________ 10<br />

Table 1: Peru's Economic Risk from Multiple Hazards ____________________________________________ 9<br />

Table 2: Inst<strong>an</strong>ces of Rock<strong>in</strong>g Isolation ________________________________________________________ 23<br />

MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

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27<br />

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MARKET ANALYSIS OF LOW-COST SEISMIC PROTECTION<br />

BORTON, SAM

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