št. 1-2, let. XLV, 2011 - UMAR

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56 IB Revija 1-2/2011 Medvešek, M. (2007). Razmišljanja o pojavih nestrpnosti in etnične distance v slovenski družbi. V: Komac, M. (ur.). Priseljenci: študije o priseljevanju in vključevanju v slovensko družbo. Ljubljana: Inštitut za narodnostna vprašanja, str. 187–217. Mikolič, V. (2008). Diskurzivna narava stereotipov in predsodkov ter soočanje z njimi v sodobni demokratični družbi. Jezik in slovstvo 53/1, str. 67–77. Milharčič Hladnik, Mirjam (2007). Avtobiografičnost narativnosti: metodološko teoretični pristopi v raziskovanju migracijskih izkušenj. Dve domovini/Two Homelands, 26, 31–46. Mušič, Ana (11. 1. 2010). Tečaji slovenskega jezika za tujce še dostopnejši. Ljubljana: MMC RTV SLO. http:// www.rtvslo.si/slovenija/tecaji-slovenskega-jezika-zatujce-se-dostopnejsi/248308 (28. 1. 2011). Ule, M. (2005). Psihologija komuniciranja. Ljubljana: Fakulteta za družbene vede. Vključevanje v slovensko družbo: informacije za tujce (2009), ur. Gole Ašanin, S. in Pokrivač, D. Ljubljana: Ministrstvo za notranje zadeve. Žitnik Serafin, J. (2010). Položaj »novih« manjšin in priseljencev v Sloveniji. IB revija, 2, str. 67–74. Drugi uporabljeni spletni naslovi: Ars.linguae: http://www.ars-linguae.com/tecaj_ slovenscine.html, 28. 1. 2011. Center za slovenščino kot drugi/tuji jezik Filozofske fakultete Univerze v Ljubljani: http://www.centerslo.net/ l2.asp?L1_ID=1&L2_ID=13&LANG=slo, 27. 1. 2011. Ljudska univerza Koper: http://www.lu-koper.si/ povezava.aspx?pid=917&id=44, 27. 1. 2011. Panteon College: http://panteon.si/tecaji-slovenscine, 28. 1. 2011. Informacije za tujce, Ministrstvo za notranje zadeve RS: http://www.infotujci.si/, 27. 1. 2011. Ustava Republike Slovenije: http://www.dz-rs. si/?id=150&docid=28&showdoc=1, 27. 1. 2011.
IB Revija 1-2/2011 57 SLOPOL, a macroeconometric model of the slovenian economy dr. Klaus Weyerstrass, Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna UDK 338.27 (497.4) JEL: C510, C540, E370 Povzetek: Slovenija se je pridružila Evropski uniji leta 2004 in je kot prva nova članica vstopila v evrsko območje leta 2007. Ker je bila do leta 1991 del nekdanje Jugoslavije, se je njena »ekonomska zgodovina« pravzaprav začela šele takrat, kar otežuje prepoznavanje empiričnih pravil, ki bi lahko bila uporabna pri pripravi napovedi in analiz. Članek predstavlja makroekonometrični model za Slovenijo, ki se imenuje SLOPOL. Ocenili smo ga s pomočjo najnovejših četrtletnih podatkov in temelji na sodobni ekonometrični metodologiji, ki vključuje analizo stacionarnosti in kointegracije. Model se je že uspešno uporabljal za simulacije alternativnih ukrepov monetarnih in fiskalnih politik, pa tudi pri pripravi napovedi. V članku je prikazana tudi napoved ekonomskega razvoja Slovenije za leti 2011 in 2012, ki je bila pripravljena na podlagi tega modela. Ključne besede: Slovenija, makroekonometrični model, ekonomska napoved Abstract: Slovenia entered the European Union in 2004 and was the first of the new EU Member States to enter the euro-area in 2007. As Slovenia was part of the former Yugoslavia until 1991, the economic history of the country to some extent started after that date. This causes difficulties for research into empirical regularities to be used in forecasting and policy analysis. This paper describes a macroeconometric model for Slovenia (“SLOPOL”) developed despite these issues. The model uses the most recent quarterly data and is based on current econometric methodology, including stationarity and cointegration analysis. The model has already been used successfully for simulations of alternative monetary and fiscal-policy measures, as well as for forecasting. A forecast of economic development in Slovenia for 2011 and 2012, which was generated with the SLOPOL model, is also presented in this paper. Key words: Slovenia, Macroeconometric model, Economic forecast 1. introduction Decisions about economic policies are characterised by an increasingly complex environment. Furthermore, external shocks, such as sudden movements of raw material prices, exert significant macroeconomic impacts. While the qualitative effects of demand and supply shocks, as well as of monetary and fiscal policy measures can often be derived from economic theory, their quantification requires a mathematical representation of the economy. Here, macroeconometric models containing the most important macroeconomic aggregates and markets have established a long tradition. Alongside simulations, macroeconomic models are regularly used to generate economic forecasts. Hence, a macroeconometric model that is based on both sound economic-theoretical considerations and on actual data is a useful tool for guiding economic policy-making in Slovenia. This paper describes the history and structure and an application of SLOPOL, a macroeconometric model of the Slovenian economy. In recent years, the SLOPOL model has been used both for simulation and forecasts. Several simulations have dealt with identification and quantification of the macroeconomic effects of the introduction of the euro in Slovenia in 2007. The incorporated impacts comprised the transition from an independent monetary policy to the common monetary policy of the European Central Bank, and a positive total factor productivity shock due to saving in transaction costs and an increase of price transparency with an ensuing increase in competition. Within the model, the euro-area accession brought about temporarily higher real GDP growth, a permanently higher GDP level, more employment, temporarily lower inflation and a permanently lower price level. On the other hand, both public finances and the current account were seen to deteriorate (see, e.g. Weyerstrass 2008, Weyerstrass and Neck 2008a, 2008b). This paper is structured as follows. In the next section, the history of the model is sketched. In the third section,
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