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B2 September 6 - 12 12.pmd - San Gabriel Valley Examiner

B2 September 6 - 12 12.pmd - San Gabriel Valley Examiner

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B4<br />

S.G.V. EXAMINER<br />

The Importance Of This<br />

Friday's Employment Report<br />

In Friday's Jackson Hole<br />

speech, Federal Reserve Chairman<br />

Ben Bernanke made a<br />

forceful case for further largescale<br />

asset purchases, or quantitative<br />

easing. It is clear the Fed<br />

Chairman wants Quantitative<br />

Easing 3, but he still has to convince<br />

a skeptical Open Market<br />

Committee. Next Friday's employment<br />

report will be a key<br />

data point if it is going to happen<br />

this year.<br />

THE SPEECH<br />

Bernanke talked about the<br />

effectiveness of the extraordinary<br />

policy pursued by the Fed<br />

since the crisis, and in particular<br />

touted Fed analysis which<br />

found the first two QE rounds<br />

boosted GDP by three percent<br />

and boosted employment by<br />

two million jobs. The Bank of<br />

England found a proportionate<br />

result in their analysis of their<br />

own QE programs, he said. (He<br />

warned that these estimates<br />

may not be entirely accurate, as<br />

any estimate of what might have<br />

happened is just that, an estimate.)<br />

By linking QE to jobs,<br />

Bernanke forcefully reminded us<br />

of the Fed's mandate. The Fed<br />

exists to pursue stable prices<br />

and full employment.<br />

Bernanke ran through a cost<br />

benefit analysis in which he<br />

listed four major objections to<br />

QE.<br />

1. The functioning of the securities<br />

markets could be impaired.<br />

2. A further expansion of the<br />

Fed's balance sheet could undermine<br />

faith in the ability to exit<br />

accommodation, thereby increasing<br />

inflation expectations.<br />

3. If too many investors<br />

chase yield, they may take inappropriate<br />

risks, undermining<br />

financial stability. (Though he<br />

noted this is always a risk with<br />

monetary stimulus.)<br />

4. The Fed could suffer financial<br />

losses if the value of<br />

assets on its balance sheet falls.<br />

But, he said, "In light of the<br />

policy actions the FOMC has<br />

taken to date, as well as the<br />

economy's natural recovery<br />

mechanisms, we might have<br />

hoped for greater progress by<br />

now in returning to maximum<br />

employment." He blamed a still<br />

weak housing sector (despite<br />

some recent improvement), restrictive<br />

fiscal policy, especially<br />

at state and local levels and<br />

strains in credit and financial<br />

markets. He emphasized tight<br />

borrowing conditions, but failed<br />

to draw the obvious link to<br />

tough new regulations designed<br />

to prevent many of the loans<br />

common a few years ago.<br />

"As we assess the benefits<br />

and costs of alternative policy<br />

approaches, though, we must<br />

not lose sight of the daunting<br />

economic challenges that confront<br />

our nation," he said. "The<br />

stagnation of the labor market<br />

in particular is a grave concern<br />

not only because of the enormous<br />

suffering and waste of<br />

human talent it entails, but also<br />

because persistently high levels<br />

of unemployment will wreak<br />

structural damage on our<br />

economy that could last for<br />

many years."<br />

The Chairman is clearly hoping<br />

for another QE round, but<br />

the rest of the Committee is divided.<br />

Next Friday's employment<br />

report is likely to decide<br />

whether anything is done at the<br />

<strong>September</strong> meeting. Remember,<br />

too, that not taking action in<br />

<strong>September</strong> does not rule it out<br />

later. In 2010, the second round<br />

of QE hinted at in August was<br />

not announced until November.<br />

The 2010 speech<br />

The lead-up to Friday's Jackson<br />

Hole speech was punctuated<br />

by repeated reminiscences<br />

of Jackson Hole 2010. It was<br />

there Bernanke tipped his hand<br />

and signaled QE2. Or at least,<br />

that's the way many of my colleagues<br />

remember it. But it<br />

didn't really happen that way. As<br />

is so often the case when investors<br />

unravel the clues to a<br />

In In A A Nutshell<br />

Nutshell<br />

What’s up in the Economy?<br />

KEN HERMAN<br />

Economic Analyst<br />

& Former Glendora Mayor<br />

Fed action, the speech alone<br />

would not have given anything<br />

away if not for the context provided<br />

by events leading up to it.<br />

It's worth a quick review because<br />

understanding what happened<br />

two years ago provides<br />

useful context for understanding<br />

potential outcomes this year.<br />

>In July 2010, private payrolls<br />

rose 71,000, a disappointingly<br />

small gain made worse because<br />

it followed increases of<br />

just 51,000 in May and 31,000<br />

in June. Employment growth<br />

was stalling.<br />

>At the August 10 FOMC<br />

meeting, the Committee chose<br />

to reinvest the cash from mortgage<br />

principal payments (prepays)<br />

into longer-term Treasury<br />

securities. This was primarily a<br />

reaction to a report from Brian<br />

Sack at the New York Fed<br />

showing how mortgages were<br />

unexpectedly melting off the<br />

Fed's balance sheet due to low<br />

interest rates, but it was perceived<br />

as easing.<br />

>On August 24, three days<br />

before the Jackson Hole speech,<br />

Jon Hilsenrath at The Wall Street<br />

Journal published a tell-all account<br />

of the August 10 FOMC<br />

meeting. The article named<br />

names and spilled details so precise<br />

they would not even make<br />

it into the minutes published a<br />

week later. Eventually, the article<br />

spurred the Fed to adopt<br />

new communication guidelines<br />

for officials, but at the time they<br />

revealed a fractured FOMC and<br />

- for the first time - clearly revealed<br />

Bernanke as the most<br />

dovish of them all.<br />

As for the speech itself,<br />

Bernanke talked about easing in<br />

the context of what global central<br />

banks had done in the past<br />

and what the Fed still could do<br />

to help the economy. Then he<br />

said the FOMC had not decided<br />

to do anything else. He did, however,<br />

offer two conditions<br />

which would justify further easing:<br />

a credible threat of deflation<br />

or a credible threat of recession.<br />

The bond market started pricing<br />

in QE in early August, after<br />

the July employment report.<br />

The speech had very little impact<br />

on yields. But the stock<br />

market, which had been falling<br />

for two weeks, bottomed on the<br />

day of the speech and rallied<br />

through year end. So perhaps<br />

some investors did hear the<br />

speech as tipping-off the second<br />

round of QE. But it is also<br />

noteworthy that the Fed did not<br />

announce it in an FOMC statement<br />

until November, though<br />

New York Fed President Bill<br />

Dudley made it pretty apparent<br />

in an October 1 speech. Then,<br />

just two weeks later, the New<br />

York Fed surveyed the primary<br />

dealers to determine how big it<br />

should be, further tipping its<br />

hand.<br />

Bernanke's leadership of a<br />

newly-fractured board made his<br />

comments about QE in 2010 all<br />

the more potent. The market<br />

started paying much more attention<br />

to how he expressed his<br />

own views, even perhaps when<br />

he said he wasn't speaking for<br />

the Fed. Until then, there had<br />

not been a hint of dissent since<br />

the financial crisis erupted in<br />

2008. As Hilsenrath explained it,<br />

disagreement at the Fed was so<br />

heated, even the decision to reinvest<br />

mortgage prepays at the<br />

August meeting was controversial,<br />

passing only because<br />

Bernanke was masterful in managing<br />

the debate.<br />

Divergence at the Fed today<br />

If anything, the divergence<br />

FINANCIAL / CONSUMER<br />

of views within the Fed is even<br />

more pronounced today than it<br />

was two years ago.<br />

Fed hawks who opposed QE<br />

two years ago are frustrated<br />

because they believe their primary<br />

fears about QE were<br />

borne out but ignored. Richard<br />

Fisher in particular seems frustrated<br />

that QE caused massive<br />

swings in the value of the dollar<br />

and in the cost of commodities,<br />

appears to have benefited<br />

asset markets only temporarily<br />

and left the Fed with a $2 trillion<br />

bond portfolio to manage.<br />

Wall Street's understanding<br />

of the economic expansion has<br />

changed, both inside and outside<br />

the Fed. Most people, including<br />

Bernanke, expected a<br />

pretty typical recovery in 2010.<br />

No one thinks that now. To<br />

some, that is justification for<br />

more aggressive monetary<br />

policy. To others, it is proof that<br />

the very remedies we have<br />

adopted are holding back the<br />

recovery.<br />

Bernanke must convince at<br />

least some people from each of<br />

these camps to endorse QE if it<br />

is going to happen.<br />

WHY FRIDAY'S REPORT<br />

IS A BIG DEAL<br />

The August FOMC minutes<br />

showed broad support for easing<br />

unless the data turned decidedly<br />

better for a sustained<br />

period, but as James Bullard told<br />

CNBC after their release, "The<br />

minutes are a bit stale since we<br />

have some data since then that<br />

has been somewhat stronger."<br />

He went on to say that it is one<br />

thing to talk hypothetically about<br />

what it would take to justify<br />

easing. It is another altogether<br />

to actually vote for it. If data<br />

continues to be consistent with<br />

2% growth, he said, it isn't going<br />

to happen. Wall Street agrees<br />

that he is probably right.<br />

That's why the August employment<br />

report this week is<br />

such a big deal. It does not have<br />

to be strong to justify the<br />

FOMC remaining on hold. Job<br />

growth of 150k is ample to do<br />

that, despite being a disappointment<br />

to the sustainable-growth<br />

crowd. Anything between 100k<br />

and 150k is likely to result in<br />

more vigorous debate but no<br />

ease and only a sub- 100k number<br />

is likely to prod the Fed into<br />

action.<br />

Some economists say a<br />

higher unemployment rate could<br />

move the Fed. The rate bottomed<br />

in April at 8.1% and has<br />

since risen to 8.3%, part of a<br />

two-and-a-half year old pattern<br />

stretching back to the start of<br />

the recovery. Every year, the<br />

rate has fallen rapidly in the fall<br />

and winter and risen a few<br />

tenths in the spring and summer.<br />

The 2010 low was in June,<br />

the 2011 low was in March, and<br />

this year's was in April. Another<br />

tenth or two is easily dismissed<br />

as part of a seasonal issue<br />

Bernanke talked about in February.<br />

As a result, Wall Street<br />

talks about the importance of<br />

the employment report, but the<br />

really important thing is nonfarm<br />

payrolls.<br />

There were no industries that<br />

weakened by more than a few<br />

thousand in July. There are two<br />

ways to think about this. An<br />

optimist might argue the balance<br />

of change - the stuff going on<br />

at the margins - was all good.<br />

But a pessimist might point out<br />

that the number of industries<br />

which grew and the number that<br />

shrunk was about the same in<br />

July as in June. But the handful<br />

of industries which skewed<br />

from the recent norm all skewed<br />

the same way, allowing a few<br />

small improvements to add up<br />

to what looked like a big change<br />

for the better.<br />

We won't know until Friday<br />

and the August report if this<br />

pickup in activity is sustainable<br />

or, perhaps, the harbinger of a<br />

broader-based improvement.<br />

But again it raises the stakes<br />

because a weak employment<br />

report in August would signifi-<br />

I hesitate to ask for help with<br />

my current life insurance<br />

policy, 'cause I don't want to<br />

be pressured into buying<br />

something else that I don't really<br />

need. I went online, thinking<br />

I wouldn't have to deal<br />

with an agent, but that backfired<br />

- I've been flooded with<br />

calls from numerous salespeople.<br />

Can you just honestly<br />

look at my policy, give me the<br />

facts, and assure me that you<br />

won't try to sell me something<br />

I don't need?<br />

I promise - no pressure, no<br />

sales. I'll take a look at your<br />

current policy, listen to what<br />

you want, answer your questions,<br />

and supply you with all<br />

the information you'd like to help<br />

you make your own decisions.<br />

In return, I ask only one thing;<br />

that you'll be honest and up front<br />

with me.<br />

Should I get term life insurance<br />

or whole-life life insurance?<br />

And, besides cost, how<br />

do I figure how much life insurance<br />

to get?<br />

Although term insurance is<br />

typically less expensive than<br />

whole-life insurance, it's best to<br />

get quotes for both. The drawback<br />

of term life insurance is<br />

that it expires at the end of the<br />

term selected. Nowadays there<br />

are 'return-of-premium' term life<br />

insurance policies. Although<br />

these cost roughly one-third<br />

more than plain term life insurance,<br />

when you're still alive at<br />

the end of the term, you get a<br />

RANCHO CUCAMONGA -<br />

Paul Davis, a leading national<br />

provider of water, fire and mold<br />

damage clean up and restoration<br />

services for residential and<br />

commercial properties, supports<br />

National Preparedness<br />

Month to help individuals and<br />

families. "Disasters can strike at<br />

any time. It is essential to take<br />

readiness steps now for a better<br />

response later," said Tony<br />

Cunzio, owner of Paul Davis<br />

Emergency Services of Rancho<br />

Cucamonga. "The National Preparedness<br />

Month event is a<br />

great reminder for communities<br />

and businesses everywhere to<br />

always be prepared for a disaster."<br />

According to The Department<br />

of Homeland Security's<br />

Federal Emergency Management<br />

Agency's (FEMA), the<br />

program focuses on preparing<br />

for threats and hazards that pose<br />

the greatest risk to the security<br />

of the United States. It is the<br />

shared responsibility of individuals,<br />

communities, private and<br />

nonprofit sectors, faith-based<br />

organizations, along with Federal,<br />

state, and local government.<br />

cantly undermine the better one<br />

in July.<br />

LIVE LOCAL, SHOP LO-<br />

CAL - THIS IS THE TIME<br />

OUR MERCHANTS NEED US<br />

I welcome your questions and<br />

c o m m e n t s :<br />

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The <strong>San</strong> <strong>Gabriel</strong> <strong>Valley</strong> <strong>Examiner</strong><br />

Julia Yoder<br />

refund of almost all the premiums<br />

you've paid. Whole-life<br />

insurance, on the other hand,<br />

might cost a little more than<br />

term life insurance, but it does<br />

not expire as long as you continue<br />

to pay your premiums.<br />

And, if you want to be covered<br />

for life, but don't want to pay<br />

premiums for life, you can obtain<br />

a quote which calculates the<br />

premiums to a certain age.<br />

Whole-life insurance can build<br />

up a cash value, accessible during<br />

your lifetime. To calculate<br />

how much insurance you'll<br />

need, estimate how much your<br />

heirs will need to maintain their<br />

lifestyle without you. Don't<br />

forget to include additional costs<br />

they may face in your absence.<br />

If you've got young children,<br />

for example, include rising<br />

costs for childcare and higher<br />

education. Add up all other<br />

sources of income: spouse's<br />

salary, pension, Social Security,<br />

or, if eligible, any other government<br />

benefits.<br />

<strong>September</strong> 6 - <strong>12</strong>, 20<strong>12</strong><br />

How can I reduce the estate<br />

tax obligations for my heirs?<br />

Life insurance is becoming<br />

more and more popular among<br />

wise investors to cover final<br />

expenses and inheritance / estate<br />

taxes. Proceeds paid to<br />

beneficiaries from a life insurance<br />

policy are income tax free.<br />

Life insurance policies are typically<br />

settled quickly (unless<br />

there are suspicious circumstances<br />

surrounding the<br />

insured's death, of course).<br />

How can I make sure that I<br />

don't outlive my retirement<br />

income?<br />

While it is good that about<br />

half of the people who are retired<br />

live beyond the average life<br />

expectancy, it also creates several<br />

risks, such as being unable<br />

to protect your standard of living,<br />

the ability to pay for increased<br />

healthcare costs beyond<br />

what Medicaid (MediCal<br />

in California) doesn't cover, losing<br />

purchasing power due to<br />

inflation, and unplanned-for<br />

long-term health care cost. In<br />

fact, that to advances in<br />

healthcare, it's not uncommon<br />

for a couple age 65 for one or<br />

both of them to live into their<br />

90's. There are investment vehicles<br />

in place that allow you to<br />

convert your rp1(k) into a lifetime<br />

income stream, and also<br />

guarantee that you will not lose<br />

any principal or interest, while<br />

at the same time, defer taxes,<br />

often over several generations.<br />

Property Damage Restoration Company<br />

Provides Safety Tips For National<br />

Preparedness Month In <strong>September</strong><br />

PASADENA - Color Me<br />

Mine will be hosting their much<br />

anticipated grand opening for<br />

their newest location in Pasadena,<br />

CA.<br />

To celebrate this arrival,<br />

Color Me Mine Pasadena will<br />

have limited time Customer Appreciation<br />

Discount from <strong>September</strong><br />

1st-8th. This special deal<br />

offers 40% off any ceramic<br />

piece in the studio! This does<br />

not include the studio fee.<br />

The Paint-It- Yourself ceramics<br />

studio boasts well over 400<br />

The program stresses the<br />

lessening of impact from natural<br />

disasters and promotes quick<br />

response to save lives, protect<br />

property, the environment, and<br />

meet basic human needs in the<br />

aftermath of a catastrophic incident.<br />

This year, the National Preparedness<br />

Month theme includes<br />

creating a family emergency<br />

plan; emergency supply<br />

kits; help for neighbors in need,<br />

and teamwork for safety. Visit<br />

www.Ready.gov for information.<br />

Paul Davis recommends the<br />

following for a Basic Emergency<br />

Kit:<br />

• Water - one gallon per person<br />

per day for at least three<br />

days<br />

• Food - at least a three-day<br />

supply of non-perishable food<br />

• Clothing - change of clothing<br />

and a sleeping bag for each<br />

person<br />

• Battery-powered or hand<br />

crank radio, a NOAA Weather<br />

Radio, extra batteries<br />

• Cell Phone and charger<br />

• Flashlight and extra batteries<br />

• First aid kit - sterile gloves;<br />

adhesive bandages; antibiotic<br />

ointment; gauze pads; iodine/alcohol<br />

pads; medical tape; pain<br />

reliever; emergency Mylar blanket;<br />

thermometer; prescription<br />

medications and supplies.<br />

• Waterproof, portable containers<br />

- for IDs, insurance policies,<br />

bank account records, site<br />

maps, employee contact, computer<br />

backup files, emergency<br />

and law enforcement information,<br />

and priority documents.<br />

Store a second set of records<br />

off-site.<br />

About Paul Davis:<br />

Paul Davis Restoration, Inc.,<br />

a subsidiary of FirstService<br />

Corporation (NASDAQ: FSRV;<br />

TSX: FSV), is a national<br />

franchisor and leading provider<br />

of restoration services for residential<br />

and commercial properties<br />

since 1966. Paul Davis also<br />

provides complete remodeling<br />

services and has franchise locations<br />

throughout North<br />

America with owners and technicians<br />

who are certified by The<br />

Institute of Inspection, Cleaning<br />

and Restoration Certification<br />

(IICRC). Visit the local<br />

office website at<br />

www.pdesranchocucamonga.com.<br />

Color Me Mine Returns to Pasadena<br />

New management greets the Pasadena community; offers paint-it- yourself ceramics<br />

ceramic items to choose from,<br />

a Design Center featuring<br />

22,000 images and over sixty<br />

colors to paint with! Customers<br />

design and paint their pieces<br />

however they like. Talented<br />

staff members are ready with<br />

painting tips. It’s so easy anyone<br />

can do it! It’s great fun to<br />

relax and paint, and even more<br />

fun to take the glazed and fired<br />

work of art and enjoy it forever!<br />

Color Me Mine Pasadena is<br />

great for birthday parties, showers,<br />

handprints, fundraisers,<br />

scouting, school programs and<br />

much more! It’s a great way to<br />

spend quality time while creating<br />

gifts and keepsakes that will<br />

last a lifetime. Everyone’s an<br />

artist at Color Me Mine!<br />

For more information on<br />

Color Me Mine Pasadena, please<br />

contact the studio at (626) 298-<br />

6765, or visit<br />

www.pasadena.colormemine.com.<br />

Studio hours are Monday-Saturday<br />

11AM-9PM and Sunday<br />

11AM-7PM.<br />

About Color Me Mine Inc.:<br />

Color Me Mine is the leader in<br />

the paint-it-yourself ceramics<br />

industry with 136 studios franchised<br />

throughout the world.<br />

Each location is an upscale artas-entertainment<br />

studio offering<br />

unfinished ceramics and other<br />

craft media. Customers enter a<br />

relaxing environment, choose<br />

one of 350 unfinished ceramic<br />

pieces, and spend an hour or<br />

two painting it to explore their<br />

own artistic vision. For more<br />

information on how it works,<br />

promotions, classes, programs,<br />

or to book a party please visit:<br />

www.colormemine.com.

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