Second North American Sea Duck Conference - Patuxent Wildlife ...

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SECOND NORTH AMERICAN SEA DUCK CONFERENCE Mark Desholm AVIAN SENSITIVITY TO WIND FARM-RELATED MORTALITY: MATRIX POPULATION MODELS IN AN APPLIED CONTEXT National Environmental Research Institute, Grenåvej 12, DK-8410 Rønde, Denmark; mde@dmu.dk The main aim of this study was to develop a general modeling framework for setting management priorities by categorizing species according to their relative vulnerability to wind farm-related mortality. To do this, I compared the elasticity patterns generated by the life tables of a finite numbers of theoretical matrix population models representing the spectra of avian values of adult survival and adult female fecundity. The comparisons were generalized by developing simplified stage-classified models (two stages: pre-breeding and breeding) parameterized by invariant values of juvenile survival, mean adult survival, and mean annual fecundity. Such generalized and relatively simple models have earlier been shown to capture the essentials of full age-classified Leslie matrices, and they may therefore represent a useful tool for a first assessment of the relative influence of wind energy related mortality on different bird populations. Thus, if prioritization between species is necessary, for either technical or economical reasons, applying relatively simple matrix population models could optimize this classification process. Estimating the absolute demographic effects (e.g., the direct impact on the population size) of wind farm related mortality necessitate the use of much more detailed matrix population models. The predictive power of such models is determined by the degree to which the estimated input-parameters reflect the true mean values and their associated variance. Furthermore, details about density dependence, population age structure, age at first breeding, number of nonbreeders and environmental and demographic stochasticity must be incorporated. Especially if the researcher wants to predict what will happen through forecasting rather than just describe what would happen given certain hypotheses through population projection. Often such detailed data do not exist for the species of interest making the construction of such complex matrix population models an impossible task. 78 ANNAPOLIS, MARYLAND, USA NOV. 7-11, 2005
Mark Desholm SECOND NORTH AMERICAN SEA DUCK CONFERENCE AVIAN COLLISION RISK AT OFFSHORE WIND FARMS National Environmental Research Institute, Grenåvej 12, DK-8410 Rønde, Denmark; mde@dmu.dk In Europe, the exploitation of marine areas for wind power production has been expanding in recent years. This has caused great public concern for the potential negative impact from increased wind farm related avian mortality. At land-based installations the local effects can be assessed by carcass collection underneath the wind turbines and with simultaneous corrections for the corpse removal by scavengers. However, applying this methodology at an offshore wind farm would most probably turn out to be an overwhelming logistic and practical challenge. Consequently, novel tools, in terms of remote techniques and statistical models, are currently being developed in Europe. Firstly, the poster will focus on the importance of including evasive behavior in predictive avian collision models, since the estimated number of bird-turbine collision has been shown to be very sensitive to this factor. If the vast majority of bird species and individuals perceive off shore wind farms as a great risk and furthermore are capable of avoiding these structures, then the number of collisions will be relatively low despite high migration volumes. <strong>Second</strong>ly, the framework for such collision predictive models will be described and the pros and cons of deterministic and stochastic approaches will be discussed. Finally, the use of offshore applicable remote technologies for model parameterization and direct collision detection will be presented. Especially the use of marine surveillance radar for mapping the flight trajectories of migrating flocks of birds and measure their evasive response to man made obstacles like wind turbines. In recent years, thermal imaging has been applied for studying avian behavior in off shore areas, and the poster will present the Thermal Animal Detection System (TADS), which has been specifically developed for measuring directly the number of avian collisions at offshore wind farms. NOV. 7-11, 2005 ANNAPOLIS, MARYLAND, USA 79
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