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Analysis of the Durrand Glacier Avalanche Accident

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<strong>Durrand</strong> <strong>Avalanche</strong> Report page 2<br />

Danger Level Probability and Trigger Recommended Action<br />

Low<br />

Moderate<br />

Considerable<br />

High<br />

Extreme<br />

Natural avalanches very<br />

unlikely. Human triggered<br />

avalanches unlikely.<br />

Natural avalanches unlikely.<br />

Human triggered avalanches<br />

possible.<br />

Natural avalanches possible,<br />

human triggered avalanches<br />

probable.<br />

Natural and human triggered<br />

avalanches likely.<br />

Widespread natural or human<br />

triggered avalanches certain.<br />

Travel is generally safe. Normal caution<br />

advised.<br />

Use caution in steeper terrain on certain<br />

aspects.<br />

Be increasingly cautious in steeper<br />

terrain.<br />

Travel in avalanche terrain is not<br />

recommended.<br />

Travel in avalanche terrain should be<br />

avoided and confined to low angle terrain,<br />

well away from avalanche path runouts.<br />

Fig. 3: Canadian avalanche hazard classification system. Key phrases are highlighted.<br />

2. The Bulletin for January 17 to January 20 th provided <strong>the</strong> following additional information;<br />

key phrases have been highlighted.<br />

NORTH COLUMBIA REGION<br />

WEATHER: The strong ridge <strong>of</strong> high pressure over <strong>the</strong> south coast and interior BC will persist<br />

through Friday and Saturday, bringing mainly clear skies in <strong>the</strong> alpine and extensive valley fog. The<br />

ridge will begin to give way on Sunday. Expect cooler temperatures in <strong>the</strong> valley and temperatures<br />

above freezing in <strong>the</strong> alpine. Winds will be light to moderate from <strong>the</strong> NW throughout <strong>the</strong> weekend.<br />

SNOWPACK: The 15-30 cm <strong>of</strong> new snow that fell early in <strong>the</strong> week continues to settle and bond to<br />

<strong>the</strong> previous surfaces. This new snow has formed windslab in exposed areas. Moderate to hard<br />

shears are still occurring on two surface hoar layers down 70 and 100 cm. Watch for cornices failing<br />

with forecasted warm temperatures, particularly as <strong>the</strong>y can be a trigger for a deep instability, which<br />

we certainly have this year.<br />

AVALANCHES: Several size 1 to 1.5 natural and human triggered avalanches, at treeline and<br />

in <strong>the</strong> alpine, were reported as recent as Wednesday. These occurrences are now becoming<br />

isolated as <strong>the</strong> recent storm snow continues to bond. A few remotely triggered size 2.5 avalanches<br />

failed in <strong>the</strong> Eastern Selkirks, some triggered from over 100 metres away. Widespread<br />

whumpfing continues to be observed in all areas.<br />

FORECAST OF AVALANCHE DANGER UP TO MONDAY EVENING (JANUARY 20 th )<br />

ALPINE – Considerable<br />

TREELINE – Considerable<br />

BELOW TREELINE – Moderate<br />

TRAVEL ADVISORY: It is important to remember that this El Nino year is producing a<br />

complex and unusual snowpack for <strong>the</strong> mountains <strong>of</strong> BC. We have two deeply buried problem<br />

layers that are slow to heal and need our continued attention. Be alert for remote triggering and<br />

continue to be vigilant about avoiding those tempting big steep alpine faces. Any avalanche<br />

triggered on <strong>the</strong> older weaknesses may propagate extensively into a large and dangerous<br />

avalanche event. Be aware <strong>of</strong> how stresses penetrate deeper into <strong>the</strong> snowpack as you group up.<br />

Copyright: no part <strong>of</strong> this report may be reproduced without <strong>the</strong> written permission <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> author.

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