A380: the countdown is on - Orient Aviation

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By Charles Anderson
Richard Carcaillet gives a lot
of presentations. It <strong>is</strong> part of
h<strong>is</strong> job as director of product
marketing for Airbus’s new
giant jumbo. He has all <strong>the</strong>
facts and figures about its performance and
production at h<strong>is</strong> fingertips.
One section of h<strong>is</strong> smart slides deals
with airport demand. Although Carcaillet
does not highlight it as such, <strong>the</strong>y spell out
why A <strong>is</strong> not only for <strong>the</strong> <strong>A380</strong>, but for Asia
as well.
On h<strong>is</strong> world map of likely early routes,
<strong>the</strong>re are plenty of bold strokes going across
<strong>the</strong> Atlantic. But far more lead from Europe
and North America into <strong>the</strong> Asia-Pacific.
And, of <strong>the</strong> 60 airports which Airbus says
will see <strong>the</strong> <strong>A380</strong> land before 2010, 19 are
in <strong>the</strong> region and a fur<strong>the</strong>r five on <strong>the</strong> Indian
subcontinent.
Of <strong>the</strong> 37 airports that currently handle
87% of all Boeing 747 movements, 17 are in
<strong>the</strong> Asia-Pacific.
The reasons are obvious: <strong>the</strong> region sits
at ei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> beginning or at <strong>the</strong> end of a
majority of <strong>the</strong> world’s longest airplane
routes.
Its fast expanding cities act as magnets
for business and le<strong>is</strong>ure travellers. They
also contain growing populations that are
increasingly on <strong>the</strong> move as <strong>the</strong>ir wealth
increases.
Add to th<strong>is</strong> constraints on slots at
specific times when planes crossing time
zones are likely to take off and land –
ei<strong>the</strong>r in <strong>the</strong> Asia-Pacific or at European
and North American destinations – and
you have <strong>the</strong> equation that Airbus argues
makes <strong>the</strong> <strong>A380</strong> a winner.
“Fragmentation and consolidation are
not conflicting trends,” said Carcaillet,
entering into <strong>the</strong> well-worn argument
about where airline traffic <strong>is</strong> headed. “They
are co-ex<strong>is</strong>ting – hub and spoke and also
routes between two big points.
“On <strong>the</strong> big point-to-point routes, like
Tokyo to London or Singapore to Frankfurt,
you need more productivity at <strong>the</strong> airport
because your infrastructure <strong>is</strong> not going to
extend indefinitely to accommodate more
and more frequencies. These major routes
require larger aircraft.”
He picked Singapore to Los Angeles
or <strong>the</strong> record-breaking Singapore to New
York as examples of young markets which
can also benefit from a bigger aircraft that
flies fur<strong>the</strong>r.
sia’s
<strong>A380</strong>
“They [Singapore Airlines] are flying
<strong>the</strong>se with an Airbus 340-500. Th<strong>is</strong> <strong>is</strong> very
much an example of fragmentation. The
<strong>A380</strong> logic <strong>is</strong> <strong>the</strong>re and very clear.”
Carcaillet <strong>is</strong> keen to highlight <strong>the</strong> extra
900 nautical miles that <strong>the</strong> <strong>A380</strong> can fly
over <strong>the</strong> B747, with what Airbus claims are
better economics.
“With more range, we can eliminate
some of <strong>the</strong> constraints that people have
h<strong>is</strong>torically had with <strong>the</strong> B747-400; for
‘ Singapore – Los Angeles and
Singapore – New York are
examples of young markets
which can benefit from a bigger
aircraft that flies fur<strong>the</strong>r’
Richard Carcaillet
<strong>A380</strong> director of product marketing
example, Singapore to London, Los Angeles
to Sydney. Th<strong>is</strong> plane has outgrown <strong>the</strong>se
constraints.”
Philippe Jarry, who was tasked with
assessing <strong>the</strong> market for <strong>the</strong> <strong>A380</strong> in its
A3XX days, points to airlines operating
in markets that have developed beyond
current aircraft capacities and those which
have used up all <strong>the</strong>ir frequencies and are
hampered by time zones.
8 ORIENT AVIATION / <strong>A380</strong> Quarterly Update DECEMBER 2004-FEBRUARY 2005
He gives Qantas’s three daily B747
flights to London as an example. “We
looked at <strong>the</strong> bookings. It <strong>is</strong> very clear
that one flight number was <strong>the</strong> first that
passengers take. Th<strong>is</strong> <strong>is</strong> <strong>the</strong> best time for
departure and arrival,” he said.
“Then, when it <strong>is</strong> full, <strong>the</strong>y switch to <strong>the</strong>
second. Then <strong>the</strong>y shift to <strong>the</strong> third. We are
not improving <strong>the</strong> service to <strong>the</strong> passenger
by putting on a third, a fourth and a fifth.
We would be better off having two bigger
airplanes at <strong>the</strong> best time of <strong>the</strong> day.
“The more we believe <strong>the</strong>re will be
curfews, <strong>the</strong> more <strong>the</strong>y will restrict <strong>the</strong> time
for arrival and departure. You cannot send
squadrons of mid-sized airplanes. It would
be ridiculous and it’s not economical. Th<strong>is</strong>
<strong>is</strong> not <strong>the</strong> face of commercial aviation. It
does not respond to <strong>the</strong> requirements of th<strong>is</strong>
big and expanding market.
“You are not really increasing customer
sat<strong>is</strong>faction by putting so many airplanes
in <strong>the</strong> sky or at <strong>the</strong> airport, creating
congestion, delaying <strong>the</strong>ir flights.
“There <strong>is</strong> one thing that <strong>is</strong> not going
to change, and that’s time zones. Even if
passengers were prepared to fly at 2am or
arrive at 3am, it <strong>is</strong> not author<strong>is</strong>able. You
arrive at 2am and <strong>the</strong>re <strong>is</strong> nothing. No tax<strong>is</strong>,
no service, no food,” he said.
Then <strong>the</strong>re are <strong>the</strong> economics. With
three-quarters of <strong>the</strong> cities above 15
million projected to be in Asia in 20 years’
time, Jarry argued <strong>the</strong> case for <strong>the</strong> <strong>A380</strong>’s
importance to <strong>the</strong> region <strong>is</strong> simple.
“People say it must be very complex.
No it <strong>is</strong> not. When you aggregate more
people toge<strong>the</strong>r, you don’t have to be a
rocket scient<strong>is</strong>t to understand that fuel
consumption per nautical mile will be
lower. ”
Jarry adds crew costs to h<strong>is</strong> case. “If
instead of three B747s, you can have two
crews flying two <strong>A380</strong>s, you don’t need to
be an expert from Harvard to say <strong>the</strong>se are
less costly. And now that you have reserve
crews, it’s massive.”