Employment Land Review 2012.indd - Calderdale Council

Baseline scenario
Land Demand and Supply
per year between 2006 and 2026.This figure was based upon a scenario derived
from an older version of the REM and the assumption that the regional economy
would perform well. This scenario has been discounted as the REM projections
were derived prior to the most recent recession which was not predicted by the
REM or many other economic models. In the five years since the baseline date
of 2006 the economy of Calderdale has not performed as predicted.
Calderdale Employment Land Review (2008) – The 2008 ELR provided
predictions of future employment requirements. This study indicated up to 810
new jobs per year could on average be created over the plan period. This figure
was based upon Yorkshire Forward's Policy Plus scenario using the same baseline
as the RSS but factoring in an additional 2,250 direct jobs in Calderdale between
2006-2016 based upon a number of transformational projects such as South
Edge Quarry, Broad Street, Halifax Renaissance, and Upper Calder Valley.Whilst
some of these projects are still being actively progressed the scenario was
constructed prior to the recession and therefore for similar reasons to the RSS
scenario this scenario has been discounted.
Land Availability – This scenario would consider utilising all employment
allocations and Employment 'Call for Sites'. The sites would then be converted
into jobs using the REM. This scenario was considered unrealistic due to the
location and amount of public funding necessary to bring forward some of the
sites. Given the current austerity measures the likelihood of achieving such a
scenario in the short to medium term appears remote.
Reduced out commuting – This scenario would aim to reduce out-commuting
from Calderdale by 10% over the plan period.The scenario would retain the same
rate of job growth as the REM baseline scenario but include an additional
proportion of jobs to account for 10% less out-commuting. The out-commuting
rate would have been based upon the 2001 census data until more up to date
data became available. This scenario was considered impractical due to the
difficulties of reducing out-commuting and the close connections between
Calderdale and adjoining local authorities.
Encouraging growth sectors – This scenario would utilise the REM baseline
projections for jobs but actively enhance certain sectors within Calderdale’s
economy based upon strategic aspirations. This scenario has been discounted
due to the difficulties of accurately modelling the required growth sectors.
6.6 This scenario is solely based upon the September 2011 REM baseline forecast of job
growth within Calderdale. The new version of the REM takes account of the most up
to date data for the performance of the district based upon projected changes in
occupational structure. The REM also converts the jobs into land requirements for a
variety of land-uses. This scenario does not, however, take account of any policy
interventions to encourage greater rates of employment growth.
6.7 The Full Time Equivalent (FTE) employment growth rate within the baseline scenario
indicates a bottoming out of the Calderdale economy, in terms of employment, in 2010
with a full recovery (in terms job numbers) expected by 2017 following this a steady
increase to over 86,000 by 2026 is predicted.
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Employment Land Review 2012 - Selective Update Calderdale MBC