Employment Land Review 2012.indd - Calderdale Council

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Scenario Baseline Regaining 2007 by 2015 Zero Job growth (10) Scenario Baseline Regaining 2007 by 2015 Zero Job growth Figure 6.4 Comparison of the scenarios Table 6.1 Comparison of scenario job growth (FTEs) 2026 8,950 14,570 -190 2031 11,580 18,855 -190 Per annum total 526 857 Table 6.2 Comparison of net employment floorspace requirements (sqm) Office to 2026 73,590 95,130 19,870 Industry and warehousing to 2026 91,340 156,200 -109,000 Office to 2031 95,234 123,109 25,714 0 Industry and warehousing to 2031 118,205 202,141 -141,059 6.16 From the three scenarios tested it appears that the baseline scenario would be the most likely to reflect future employment growth within Calderdale. This scenario still provides an optimistic, yet potentially manageable, target to plan for. It is, however, important that this is kept under review to ensure there is enough land allocated for 10 Using 2009 as baseline but zero growth from 2011 Land Demand and Supply 47 6 Employment Land Review 2012 - Selective Update Calderdale MBC
48 6 Calderdale MBC Employment Land Review 2012 - Selective Update Land Demand and Supply employment purposes to provide choice and flexibility but not to oversupply allowing 'cherry-picking' of the prime sites early in the plan period. A significant oversupply could have the effect of undermining the viability of the less desirable sites and the strategic growth aspirations of the plan. Calculating Gross Employment Land Requirements 6.17 In order to turn the net land requirement into proposed employment land allocations, a gross requirement, or gross gain (11) needs to be identified. To arrive at a gross requirement, the net requirement needs to be added to a further quantity of land equal to the expected future loss. If this adjustment is not made and significant amounts of existing employment land are lost in future, the planned land supply will fall significantly short of what is needed to accommodate the employment target for the area. The Roger Tym (2010) regional study (12) identified four different approaches to calculating future losses of employment land. These were; 1. Confusing net and gross figures - this produces misleading results which are open to challenge, and risks under-supplying employment land, especially if large losses of existing space are occurring; 2. Assuming a percentage will be replaced each year - this method would not produce satisfactory results due to the large variation in losses between areas and over time; 3. Projection of past losses - this method is commonly used but it is open to the objection that the future may be very different from the past. In using this method a careful judgement using local knowledge of how the future might compare with the past is required; and 4. Qualitative assessment of existing sites - this is considered the most robust of the methods as all sites are considered for their future viability. It is, however, not fool proof as it cannot account for all circumstances and a number of unforeseen losses will inevitably happen over the plan period. 6.18 To determine the amount of future losses in this selective update both the qualitative assessment and projection of past losses methods have been utilised.The qualitative assessments are based upon the assessments of Primary Employment Areas undertaken as part of the 2008 ELR and this selective review. This indicates that from a 2009 baseline up to 6,800 sqm of existing Primary Employment Area floorspace is likely to be lost during the plan period. It is notable that the majority of these losses are predicted to be within older industry and warehousing premises which are often closely related to residential properties. Area East Calderdale Table 6.3 Potential loss of PEA by area (sqm) Potential Office floorspace loss 658 Potential Industrial and Warehousing floorspace loss 2,412 11 estimate of the new land that should be identified for employment, including any existing land which will be lost to employment use 12 Planning for employment land - translating jobs into land
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Employment Land Review 2012.indd - Calderdale Council

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