Employment Land Review 2012.indd - Calderdale Council

Land Demand and Supply
Figure 6.2 Calderdale working age population projections
Source: ONS 2008 mid year estimates
6.10 The scenario retains the 2007 peak of 74.7% people of working age in employment
for the remainder of the plan period (2031). Between 2011 and 2015 the proportions
of working age residents employed have been incrementally raised from the current
REM baseline levels in 2011 to 74.7% in 2015. The scenario assumes a spread of
growth across all sectors with proportions in line with those in the REM baseline and
that the jobs are created within Calderdale. The scenario also includes a 50% overall
increase in the employment levels of those of 65 and over the plan period through a
gradual incremental increase until 2015. An incremental approach is applied to reflect
the gradual impact of these employment factors.
6.11 Scenario 2 indicates a far quicker climb out of recession than under scenario 1. It also
indicates a higher overall growth in jobs between 2009 (9) and 2026 an additional
14,570 jobs are predicted in this scenario equating to 857 FTE jobs per year. This
annualised figure has been projected forward to the end of the plan period for
employment land purposes. It is, however, important to note that not all of these jobs
will be in traditional employment land-use jobs (offices, industry and warehousing) as
many will be within retail, restaurants, pubs, schools, hospitals and other services.
6.12 The continued effects of the economic downturn suggest this scenario is unlikely to
be achieved. It seems this scenario is likely to be overly optimistic about job creation
over the plan period.
9 2009 has been used as the base year and not 2011 to account for the time lag in updating statistics within
the REM model and this is also the base year within the REM for employment land.
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Employment Land Review 2012 - Selective Update Calderdale MBC