Plantilla Identidad AEMET v3 - MMM

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SREPS PERFORMANCE 1 0.5 HH+30 HH+54 >=1mm >=5mm >=10mm >=20mm 1 0 ROC ROCA BSS Relative Value The Ninth WRF Users' Workshop 23-27 June 2008 Boulder, CO
SREPS CALIBRATION • Bayesian Model Averaging technique has been tested trying to improve the SREPS performance. • The BMA predictive PDF of any quantity of interest is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias-corrected forecasts, where the weights are equal to posterior probabilities of the models generating the forecasts and reflect the models’ relative contributions to predictive skill over the training period (Raftery et al, 2005). BMA predictive PDF F1 F2 F3 F4F5 The Ninth WRF Users' Workshop 23-27 June 2008 Boulder, CO
Page 1 and 2: Performance and Calibration of a Sh
Page 3 and 4: AEMet-SREPS • SREPS is multi-mode
Page 5 and 6: SREPS EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS • EXP
Page 7 and 8: SREPS EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS • EXP
Page 9: SREPS PERFORMANCE 1 0.5 HH+30 HH+54
Page 13 and 14: • T500 MULTIMODEL BMA 3 T. DAYS B
Page 15 and 16: • 10m Wind Speed MULTIMODEL BMA 3
Page 17 and 18: • Second selection WRF-ARW v3.0 A
Page 19 and 20: SUMMARY • Work on going to replac
Page 21 and 22: THANK YOU MUCHAS GRACIAS The Ninth
Page 23 and 24: REFERENCES • Grell, G. D. (1994).
Page 25 and 26: SREPS CALIBRATION F 1 F 2 F 3 F 4 F

Plantilla Identidad AEMET v3 - MMM

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