ChangingCottonLandscapeNeilForrester

Millions of bales (170 kgs)
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
India Emerging as Exporter
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Data Source: ICAC Cotton Statistics
The figure above demonstrates the profound changes in the Indian cotton industry since the
introduction of Bt cotton. Prior to the introduction of Bt cotton in India in 2003, India had the
world’s lowest average yield (302 kg lint/ha in 2002) and was importing cotton lint to meet mill
demand. Within 5 years, average yield had increased 88% to 567 kg lint/ha (Data Source: ICAC
Cotton Statistics) and India is now the world’s second biggest cotton exporter. So the potential
67% yield increase mentioned for Pakistan is not unrealistic.
However, India’s yield constraints were different to Pakistan’s. Number one problem was
Bollworm control which was addressed immediately by the introduction of Bt cotton. Other
problems were (and still are) erratic monsoon rains (to be addressed by the introduction of
future drought tolerant cotton?), weeds, particularly in the northern irrigated crop (to be
addressed by the introduction of herbicide tolerant cottons) and CLCV (Cotton Leaf Curl Virus)
but only in the north (0.5m out of a total of 9m ha).
Production Mill use Exports
Bt introduction
Pakistan has a different set of problems. Number one problem is CLCV which first arose in the
early nineties and which was solved by the breeding of CLCV resistant varieties. However, this
early success was short lived with the development of a recombinant mutant strain of the virus
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