ChangingCottonLandscapeNeilForrester

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4.1b/year in extra lint, oil and meal yield. The extra lint production over the current mill requirement could be met either by exports or increased mill use or both (as was the case with India) with the value adding figure if it all went to increased textile production being another US$ 4.7-6.7b/year. These figures would represent a very significant improvement in Pakistan’s national economic position if the Pakistan cotton industry can be turned around and revitalised. In addition, there is a developing decline in US cotton production due to the competition from biofuel crops and the US cotton production may end up moving off shore as has the US cotton processing industry. If this happens, it will open up a great opportunity for other cotton producing countries to meet this potential shortfall in the US cotton exports and Pakistan should ensure that it can be one of those countries along with India, Africa, Brazil and the cotton growing countries of the CIS. Now to deal with the major cotton problems in detail. 2.1 Cotton Leaf Curl Virus This problem has been in Pakistan for a very long time, probably as long as cotton has been grown in the region. The local cotton species Gossypium arboreum has developed a natural resistance to CLCV but the introduced commercial cotton species Gossypium hirsutum is mostly naturally susceptible to CLCV as it evolved elsewhere. The introduction of the smooth leaf highly virus susceptible S12 variety in the late 80s, saw an increase in spraying for jassids initially, then for bollworms induced by the jassid sprays which in turn induced a whitefly problem. Whitefly vector of CLCV Left – adults & nymphs (scales) Right – adults & eggs As whitefly is the vector for CLCV and there was a large area of the highly CLCV susceptible S12 variety being grown, the conditions were ripe for the first CLCV epizootic. This severely affected Pakistan cotton production in the early 90s and the problem was eventually solved by the breeding of conventional CLCV resistant varieties by a number of local Pakistan breeding 6
institutes. However, later research indicated that there were only three sources of CLCV resistance discovered (LRA 5166, CP 15/2 and Cedex) and that the first two were actually the same, so effectively there were only two sources. As the CLCV problem declined in severity, the industry ended up growing a mixture of CLCV resistant and tolerant varieties which allowed a residual CLCV population to flourish. Additionally, this allowed the virus to recombine and mutate to a different form, and in this case unfortunately, to a more virulent form called the Burewala strain. This new mutant strain overcame all previously known sources of conventional host plant resistance and is still spreading gradually from its original source at Burewala near Vehari throughout the Pakistani Punjab and even into the Indian Punjab. Pakistani cotton breeders have been assiduously screening germplasm from around the world to try to identify a source (or hopefully sources) of resistance to this new CLCV strain but have so far been unsuccessful, despite screening over 12,000 lines at the Vehari Cotton Research Station near the virus epicentre. The solution to the CLCV problem must come from research and as the CLCV problem is restricted to Pakistan and the Indian Punjab, this will have to rely largely on a local regional solution. Clearly help will also be required from external virus research institutes such as the US Danforth Institute but most of the effort will have to come from local research institutes to solve a local problem. The eventual solution will come from either conventional breeding, mutation breeding such as carried out at the Nuclear Institute of Agricultural Biology (NIAB), interspecific crosses from resistant but commercially distant wild cottons (such as carried out at the Central Cotton Research Institute (CCRI) and the Ayub Agricultural Research Institute (AARI)) or transgenic (genetically modified) approaches such as carried out at the National Institute of Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering (NIBGE). All these 4 approaches should be funded as a priority and when a solution is eventually found, a country wide cotton crop management strategy should be concurrently implemented to ensure the maximum durability of the new solution e.g. quit growing CLCV susceptible varieties as quickly as possible to reduce the virus inoculum level and thus reduce the potential for virus recombination and mutation, as happened previously. 7
Page 1: Changing the Cotton Landscape in Pa
Page 5: Preface The importance of improving
Page 8 and 9: Acronyms AARI Ayub Agricultural Res
Page 10 and 11: Millions of Bales (170 kgs) Yield (
Page 12 and 13: Millions of bales (170 kgs) 35.0 30
Page 16 and 17: CLCV susceptible variety in the Ind
Page 18 and 19: (Feb/March) of part of their cotton
Page 20 and 21: The following table presents data o
Page 22 and 23: 96.1%, respectively). High levels o
Page 24 and 25: for transgenic seed production othe
Page 26 and 27: 2) Ensure all private seed sector c
Page 28 and 29: Logistical problems It will be very
Page 30 and 31: the introduction of Roundup Ready F
Page 32 and 33: eview and will not be discussed fur
Page 34 and 35: Following is a list of insect toler
Page 36 and 37: The key factors affecting the devel
Page 38 and 39: • Disease tolerance, especially F
Page 40 and 41: whatever natural refuges are availa
Page 42 and 43: The models above clearly indicate t
Page 44 and 45: 7. Summary of Recommendations 1) En
Page 46 and 47: case, we need to carefully examine
Page 48 and 49: Stakeholders Engaged for this Study

ChangingCottonLandscapeNeilForrester

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