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SA49 ■ SA49 49- North 231 B- CC Joint Session TSL/SPPSN: Geographic, Building and Pedestrian Evacuation Modeling Sponsor: Transportation Science & Logistics & Public Programs, Service and Needs Sponsored Session Chair: Douglas Bish, Assistant Professor, Virginia Tech, Department of Industrial and Systems Eng., 250 Durham Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061- 0118, United States of America, drb1@vt.edu 1 - Simulating Pedestrian Evacuation from Large Events Pitu Mirchandani, Arizona State University, 699 South Mill Avenue, Tempe, AZ, 85287, United States of America, pitu@asu.edu, Ning Wang, Zhuoyang Zhou At the end of a large event, attendees move from their seats to an exit, and then walk over to the vehicle, which they subsequently use to reach their ultimate destination. This paper develops a simulation model, using the pedestrian feature in VISSIM, to evaluate delays in normal and no-notice evacuation scenarios. Evacuation strategies are studied to make total evacuation time to leave the building or stadium and reach respective destinations as small as possible. 2 - Pedestrian Route Choice Modeling in a Changing Physical Environment Lei Feng, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America, lfeng@umd.edu, Elise Miller-Hooks The selection of routes in a congested pedestrian network in which the physical environment is changing is explored. Models of route choice behavior in this environment are developed. The evolving physical conditions, improving pedestrian situational awareness, responsively changing goals, and individual and collective responses are explicitly recognized in these models of route choice. 3 - Fleet Management and Equity Measures in Evacuation Transportation Planning for Multiple Hospitals Esra Agca, PhD Student, Virginia Tech, Department of Industrial and Systems Eng., 250 Durham Hall, Blacksburg, VA, 24061, United States of America, esra.vt@gmail.com, Douglas Bish, Roger Glick A coordinated response is required for to effectively evacuate multiple hospitals due to a regional threat (e.g., a hurricane). Organizing the evacuation response can be more complicated when it involves more than one hospital system (groups of hospitals under the same management). In this research we study optimal evacuation plans for multiple hospitals, including full centralized control, and the study of equity issues at various levels, including at the hospital system level. 4 - Optimizing a Large Scale Evacuation Plan for Tucson, AZ Neema Nassir, Graduate Research Assistant, University of Arizona, Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, 1209 E. Second Street, Tucson, AZ, 85721-0072, United States of America, neeman@email.arizona.edu, Hong Zheng, Mark Hickman, Yi-Chang Chiu Every year hundreds of chlorine tankers pass through downtown Tucson. This study aims to optimize evacuation under a hypothetical tanker spill. Current gas dispersion models indicate that such a spill may lead to deadly consequences for many persons in this large urban area. In our evacuation model, the objective is to minimize the total exposure of the citizens to the poisonous gas, taking into account the different concentration levels of gas over the space. ■ SA50 50- North 231 C- CC Military Applications Sponsor: Military Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Sung-Pil Kim, Yonsei University / R.O.K Navy, Yonseiro 50, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, senseksp@gmail.com 1 - Modeling Multi-echelon Inventories for Naval Repair Parts in the ROK Navy Sung-Pil Kim, Yonsei University/R.O.K Navy, Yonseiro 50, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, senseksp@gmail.com In comparison to the rapid modernization of defense equipment, government resources are restricted, necessitating an efficient solution for managing all national resources, including naval repair parts.This paper investigates the modeling of efficient multi-echelon inventory management of naval repair parts in the ROK Navy. INFORMS Phoenix – 2012 72 2 - Once More: Putting the “O” Back into Military Operations Research George Kuhn, LMI, 2000 Corporate Ridge, McLean, VA, 22102, United States of America, GKuhn@lmi.org Research results are described for two core military management topics: estimating Forces personnel attrition (casualty estimation), and forecasting unitlevel requirements for aircraft (helicopter) spare parts. While being clearly different planning domains on one level, at another level the difficulties that have long burdened estimating/forecasting such requirements share a common root: unless data collection and analysis are grounded on capturing and reflecting the inherent character of military operations, estimates/forecasts will inevitably fail to describe requirements accurately. Evidence is presented that, properly grounded on describing patterns of military operations, quantitative analysis can project requirements accuratelyóand these results differ markedly from standard portrayals that rely on conceptual and quantitative conventions incongruent with the underlying character of military operations. ■ SA51 51- North 232 A- CC Disaster Relief Planning and Operations Sponsor: Military Applications Sponsored Session Chair: Xiaofeng Nie, Assistant Professor, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore, xiaofengnie@ntu.edu.sg 1 - Prepositioning of Supplies in Preparation for a Hurricane with Forecast Information Updates Rajan Batta, University at Buffalo (SUNY), Dept. of Industrial & Systems Engg, Buffalo, NY, 14260, United States of America, batta@buffalo.edu, Gina Galindo It is possible to use prediction models to obtain periodic forecasts about a hurricane’s main characteristics such as its path, wind force and time of landfall. Using this information we present a dynamic model for prepositioning supplies in such a setting. Our model has two distinguishing features: possible destruction of supply points during the disaster event, and the use of forecast information updates in order to strategically modify and improve the prepositioned quantities and locations. 2 - A Stochastic Programming Model for Casualty Response Planning during Catastrophic Health Events Aakil Caunhye, PhD Student, Nanyang Technological University, 758, Choa Chu Kang North 5, Singapore, 680758, Singapore, M090028@e.ntu.edu.sg, Xiaofeng Nie Catastrophic health events are natural or man-made incidents that create casualties in numbers that overwhelm healthcare response capabilities. We construct a three-stage stochastic programming model to locate alternative care facilities and transport casualties in response to such events. We also propose an L-shaped cut algorithm, to generate good solutions fast. We analyse the model and algorithm in the case of a high-impact earthquake in a subregion of San Bernardino, California. 3 - Identifying the Role and Impact of Social Media in Evacuation Justin Yates, Assistant Professor, Texas A&M University, 4079 ETB, 3131 TAMU, College Station, TX, 77843-3131, United States of America, jtyates@tamu.edu The next generation of evacuation planning and emergency response strategies needs to be built on the context of real-time information dissemination. The goal of this research is to build a new set of evacuation models capable of incorporating spatio-temporal data on extremely large scales and supported by new behavioral paradigms predicated on the use of social media. We discuss our initial efforts and insights in this presentation. 4 - Heuristic Methods for Hazard Zone Determinations Ed Pohl, University of Arkansas, Department of Industrial Engineering, Fayetteville, AR, United States of America, epohl@uark.edu, Manuel D. Rossetti To better examine the use of optimization in emergency planning this research investigates the determination of hazard zones within a geographic area. A hazard zone is an area corresponding to a worst-case evacuation scenario and is a potential vulnerability that should be addressed by risk mitigation strategies. The research compares two heuristic approaches to determining hazard zones based on population and road connectivity within a spatial network.
■ SA52 52- North 232 B- CC Electricity Markets: Game-theory Based Models for Strategic Planning Sponsor: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment/Energy Sponsored Session Chair: Efraim Centeno, Institute for Research in Technology - ICAI, Comillas Pontifical University, Alberto Aguilera 25, Madrid, 28015, Spain, Efraim.Centeno@upcomillas.es 1 - Study of Strategic Behavior Impact in the Spot Market on Capacity Expansion using a Linearised EPEC Efraim Centeno, Institute for Research in Technology-ICAI, Comillas Pontifical University, Alberto Aguilera 25, Madrid, 28015, Spain, Efraim.Centeno@upcomillas.es, Sonja Wogrin, Julian Barquin Capacity expansion decisions are represented using a bilevel approach (EPEC). In the upper level the competing generation companies maximize their individual profits, while the lower level represents the spot markets using a conjectured price-response approach. This model is linearised and solved to show the solution variation with respect to the level of competence in the spot market and that the market equilibrium can have multiple solutions with investments level that vary significantly. 2 - Impact of Renewable Energy Sources on Generation Capacity Investments: A Stochastic MPEC Approach Sonja Wogrin, Institute for Research in Technology-ICAI, Comillas Pontifical University, Alberto Aguilera 25, Madrid, 28015, Spain, sonja.wogrin@iit.upcomillas.es, Julian Barquin, Efraim Centeno Strategic long-term generation capacity planning in liberalized electricity markets is a very complicated task, mainly because generation companies are confronted with a vast spectrum of uncertainties, one of the most prominent being demand fluctuations stemming from renewable energy sources. We propose a stochastic bilevel model formulated as an MPEC to analyze the impact that renewableinduced uncertainty has on capacity investment decisions and the optimal technology mix in the system. 3 - A Three-level Model for Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning Javier Contreras, Professor, University of Castilla-La Mancha, E.T.S. de Ingenieros Industriales, Ciudad Real, 13071, Spain, Javier.Contreras@uclm.es, Enzo Sauma, David Pozo We present a three-level model for the expansion of an electric network. The lower-level model represents the equilibrium of a pool-based market; the intermediate level represents the Nash equilibrium in generation expansion, and the upper-level model represents the anticipation of transmission expansion to the investment in generation and the pool-based market equilibrium. The model is applied to a realistic power system in Chile to illustrate the methodology and proper conclusions are reached. 4 - Dynamic Pricing of Peak Generation in Electricity Markets Heikki Peura, PhD Student, London Business School, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4SA, United Kingdom, hpeura.phd2010@london.edu, Derek Bunn With reference to electricity, we study the problem of pricing peak production of an instantly perishable product in a dynamic setting with market power. In a repeated game with future demand uncertainty, peak producers’ profitability may hinge on their ability to implicitly collude on prices. Furthermore, diversification in generation technologies as well as financial constraints in the form of revenue targets may have significant impacts on peak producers’ pricing decisions. INFORMS Phoenix – 2012 73 ■ SA53 53- North 232 C- CC Optimization in Energy Procurement and Cost Allocation Sponsor: Energy, Natural Res & the Environment/Energy Sponsored Session Chair: Ross Baldick, Professor, The University of Texas at Austin, 1 University Station Stop C0803 ENS 502, Austin, TX, 78712, United States of America, baldick@ece.utexas.edu 1 - Energy Supply Risk Due to Selling Over the Physical Generation Capacity Anderson Rodrigo de Queiroz, PhD, MC&E, Rua Silvestre Ferraz N.81, Itajubá, 37500-000, Brazil, ar_queiroz@yahoo.com.br, Josè W. Marangon Lima, Luana M. Marangon Lima, Verònica Etchebehere In Brazil the electricity market agents have to present full physical generation coverage, in other words only the generator’s assured energy can be negotiated. This work explores the possibility of financial leverage in terms of energy by allowing the negotiation of contracts that extrapolates the physical capacity. Short-term price simulations are used to value contracts and to study risk. The procedure gives more flexibility and liquidity to the market amplifying the business possibilities. 2 - Game-theoretic Allocation of Transmission Costs Taking into Account Generation and Load Uncertainties Luiz Carlos Costa Jr, PSR, Praia de Botafogo 228/1701-A, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 22250-145, Brazil, luizcarlos@psr-inc.com, Luiz Mauricio Thomè, Silvio Binato, Mario Veiga Pereira We extend the Aumann-Shapley allocation scheme to represent uncertainties in bus loads and energy production of renewables. Two criteria are compared: a marginal pricing scheme, in which the cost of each circuit is allocated to the scenario that led to the maximum use of that circuit; and a “tolling” scheme, in which the cumulative distribution of circuit usage is taken into account. The methodology will be illustrated for the 5,000 bus Brazilian transmission network. 3 - Stochastic Model of International Fuel Procurement for Coalfired Plants in Hydrothermal Systems Fernanda Thomé, Research Engineer, PSR, Praia de Botafogo 228/1701-A, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 22250145, Brazil, fernanda@psr-inc.com, André Dias, Silvio Binato, Eduardo Faria This work presents an optimal strategy for international fuel procurement, transportation and storage in order to ensure continuous supply of coal-fired thermal plants. A stochastic programming problem takes into account the uncertainty associated with inflows in a hydrothermal system and other complex logistical and commercial aspects related to imported coal handling. The model results are shown by comparisons between different strategies when applied to different dispatch scenarios. ■ SA54 SA54 54- Regency Ballroom A- Hyatt Nicholson Student Paper Prize I Cluster: Nicholson Student Paper Prize Invited Session Chair: Ashish Goel, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States of America, ashishg@stanford.edu 1 - A Polyhedral Study of Multiechelon Lot Sizing with Intermediate Demands Minjiao Zhang, Graduate Research Associate, The Ohio State University, Integrated Systems Engineering, 1971 Neil Ave., Columbus, OH, 43210, United States of America, zhang.769@osu.edu, Simge KüÁükyavuz, Hande Yaman In this paper, we study a multiechelon uncapacitated lot-sizing problem in series (m-ULS), where the output of the intermediate echelons has its own external demand and is also an input to the next echelon. We propose a polynomial-time dynamic programming algorithm, which gives a tight, compact extended formulation for the two-echelon case (2-ULS). Next, we present a family of valid inequalities for m-ULS, show its strength, and give a polynomial-time separation algorithm. We establish a hierarchy between the alternative formulations for 2- ULS. In particular, we show that our valid inequalities can be obtained from the projection of the multicommodity formulation. Our computational results show that this extended formulation is very effective in solving our uncapacitated multi-item two-echelon test problems. In addition, for capacitated multiitem, multiechelon problems, we demonstrate the effectiveness of a branch-and-cut algorithm using the proposed inequalities.
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